U.S. AG Says Voter Registration Should Be Automatic

Attorney General Eric Holder said on Tuesday that U.S. election officials should register eligible voters automatically and take steps to reduce the long lines Americans encountered in national elections on Nov. 6.

In a speech in Boston, Holder became the highest-ranking official to call for voting changes since President Barack Obama expressed exasperation with the hours-long lines during his re-election victory speech last night.

“Modern technology provides ways to address many of the problems that impede the efficient administration of elections,” Holder said.

Registering to vote is a necessary step to be eligible to cast a ballot in almost every U.S. state, and some jurisdictions require the paperwork weeks before Election Day.  The United States has a patchwork election system, relying on local officials in 3,141 counties across the 50 states and the District of Columbia to the define laws and manage the bureaucratic process used to register voters.   This does not include U.S. Commonwealths and territories with what are generally county equivalents.

Holder said the current system was needlessly complex and riddled with mistakes, resulting in 60 million adult U.S. citizens not being eligible to cast a ballot in the 2008 presidential election because they had not filed the right paperwork.  

In Texas, voters must be registered to vote 30 days before election day, and re-register when they move.  All the registration paperwork is handled at both the county and state levels, and sometimes across Texas' Secretary of  State and Department of Motor Vehicles (DPS) state agencies.

Because of the  Broken (DPS) Texas Motor Voter Registration Process many people who thought they re-registered when they change their driver's license after moving from one Texas county to another found they were not properly re-registered by their visit to the DPS office or website. These voters thought they had filed the right voter registration paperwork, but one of the state agencies seemingly mishandled or lost it. These harried voters were forced to travel to their county's main election office to vote a limited ballot during early voting or vote a provisional ballot at their polling location on election day, and many of those provisional ballots were likely not accepted for counting.

The safeguards are in place to prevent a problem that rarely, if ever occurs, largely because few people are willing to risk felony charges to influence an election, Holder said.

“You can’t get groups of sufficient numbers of people that are willing to face that possibility and try to influence an election, which is why in-person voter fraud simply doesn’t exist to the extent that some on the right have said that it does,” Holder told a crowd of several hundred at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library in Boston.

By coordinating existing databases, the government could register “every eligible voter in America” and ensure that registration does not lapse after moving to a new home, Holder said.

Holder, also recommended that polling places should have an adequate number of voting machines and be open for additional days — a challenge because thousands of local officials make those decisions independently.  Holder also suggested that Election Day should be moved to a weekend.

“We should rethink this whole notion that voting only occurs on Tuesday, which is an agricultural notion from way back,” Holder said. “Why not have voting on weekends?”

An overhaul would likely require approval from Congress, a significant obstacle because of the view by many Republicans that easing registration requirements could increase voter fraud. The U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing on “the state of the right to vote” on Dec. 19.

Full text of Holder’s remarks.

Search For Muslim Bias In Texas Schools, Finds Only Christian Bias

Think Progress: A bizarre chain email sent to district and school board officials in the Dallas area this October titled “IRVING ISD INDOCTRINATING ISLAM” inspired a recent investigation of “Islamic bias” in the district’s curriculum. Only Christian bias found.

Despite the outlandish claims, the district requested that an official from the organization that created the curriculum to respond. The results of a 72-page investigation done by the organization were not surprising: there’s a Christian bias in schools, not a Muslim one.

The official told the board that a bias toward Islam didn’t exist, even mentioning that “she hired a ‘very socially and fiscally conservative’ former social studies teacher who ‘watches Glenn Beck on a regular basis’ to seek out any Islamic bias in CSCOPE [the curriculum].” She “asked her to look for anything she would consider the least bit controversial.”

The Dallas Morning News has the details of an investigation that mentioned “every religious reference in the CSCOPE curriculum, from kindergarten to high school”:

• Christianity got twice as much attention in the curriculum as any other religion. Islam was a distant second.
• The Red Crescent and Boston Tea Party reference mentioned in the email were nowhere in CSCOPE’s curriculum, although they may have been in the past.
• If there was any Islamic bias in CSCOPE it was “bias against radical Islam.”

This isn’t the first time Texas has debated the perceived presence of too much Islam in its school books. In 2010, the Texas Board of Education banned any books that “paint Islam in too favorable of a light.”  The reasoning was head-scratching: “the resolution adopted Friday cites ‘politically-correct whitewashes of Islamic culture and stigmas on Christian civilization’ in current textbooks and warns that ‘more such discriminatory treatment of religion may occur as Middle Easterners buy into the US public school textbook oligopoly.’”

A Texas based civil liberties advocate said at the time that “the members who voted for this resolution were solely interested in playing on fear and bigotry in order to pit Christians against Muslims.”

Full story @ Think Progress

Tax The Rich: An Animated Fairy Tale

Tax the Rich: An animated fairy tale, is narrated by Ed Asner, with animation by Mike Konopacki. Written and directed by Fred Glass for the California Federation of Teachers. An 8 minute video about how we arrived at this moment of poorly funded public services and widening economic inequality. Things go downhill in a happy and prosperous land after the rich decide they don't want to pay taxes anymore. They tell the people that there is no alternative, but the people aren't so sure. This land bears a startling resemblance to our land.


Hat tip to my friend D Karen Wilkerson.

President Obama's #My2k Twitter Live Chat

Behind the scenes look at President Obama on a Twitter (#My2k) live chat from the Roosevelt room of the White House. President Obama connected directly with Americans via Twitter on Monday, where he answered questions about extending middle class tax cuts.

During the live Twitter Q&A, the President addressed the need for a balanced approach to reduce the deficit, the ongoing fiscal cliff negotiations, and even weighed in with his predictions for Chicago sports teams from the White House Twitter account. During the conversation, the hashtag #My2k was used more than 31,000 times and trended nationally on Twitter throughout the chat.



More:

• http://www.whitehouse.gov/My2k
• Social Media Caucus - Tx Sen. Kirk Watson explains Twitter live chat

Guiding Principles On Fiscal Cliff Negotiations With Republicans

Author, Berkeley professor, and Clinton-era Secretary of Labor Robert Reich lays out the what, why and how of the Fiscal "Cliff", the showdown in Congress that Republicans created to demand painful cuts in vital domestic programs in exchange for raising taxes on the top 2%. Guiding Principles On Fiscal Cliff Negotiations With Republicans

Did Romney Pollsters Not Understand Cell Phone Only Demographics

by Michael Handley  (Updated Sat., Dec. 1, 2012 @ 9:38 a.m.)

The Romney campaign and GOP politicos, like Carl Rove, absolutely believed Romney was headed for victory on Election Day. Did Romney's polls skew toward the right by as much as an eight point spread because his internal pollsters fell into the wireless (cell phone) only polling gap trap?

A few journalists have reported that team Romney’s internal polling showed him comfortably moving into the lead in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and a few other swing states.  Add in Ohio, where Romney's internal polling had him in a statistical tie with Obama, and team Romney thought they were on track to lock in enough electoral votes to win the White House.  GOP confidence in these numbers was such that Romney decided to not prepare a concession speech in advance.

An article by Noam Scheiber published today in The New Republic provides some details about the Romney Campaign's internal polling snafu.

The Internal Polls That Made Mitt Romney Think He'd Win

...In an exclusive to The New Republic, a Romney aide has provided the campaign’s final internal polling numbers for six key states, along with additional breakdowns of the data, which the aide obtained from the campaign’s chief pollster, Neil Newhouse.  Newhouse himself then discussed the numbers with TNR.

...Newhouse and some of his colleagues have said that the biggest flaw in their polling was the failure to predict the demographic composition of the electorate. Broadly speaking, the people who showed up to vote on November 6 were younger and less white than Team Romney anticipated, and far more Democratic as a result. "The Colorado Latino vote was extraordinarily challenging," Newhouse told me. "As it was in Florida.

...One Romney aide told me that he ran into Tagg Romney, the candidate’s eldest son, as the results came in on election night. “He looked like he was in a complete state of shock,” the aide said. “[As if] these numbers cannot be real.”

Read the full story @ The New Republic.

We know polls that included properly weighted cell phone only voters gave Obama the lead in all battle ground states through the summer and fall.  In late September Nate Silver wrote that Obama has shown a clear lead in the 16 cell phone-inclusive polls of seven top battleground states taken since the convention. A national survey conducted by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, in mid September, which include properly weighted cell phone only respondents, found that Obama had an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters.  

The cell phone only trend is increasingly problematic for pollsters for several reasons.

Political Engagement In The Digital Age

Pew Research Center: The growth of social media and the rapid adoption of smartphones have changed the way Americans engage in politics. Here is a summary of Pew's 2012 findings.

Background and details @ ePolitics

Florida Republicans Admit Voter Suppression Agenda

Florida’s former Republican Party chairman, Jim Greer, claims Republicans have made a systemic effort to suppress the Democratic vote. Greer served as Florida's GOP chairman from 2006 until 2010 when he was forced to resign after allegedly stealing $200,000 from the party. He was arrested and his case is pending trial in February.

In a 630-page deposition, related to his corruption case, recorded over two days in late May, Greer unloaded a litany of charges against the “whack-a-do, right-wing crazies” in his party, including the effort to suppress the black vote.

In the deposition, released to the press last July and reported by the Tampa Bay Times, Greer mentioned a December 2009 meeting with party officials. “I was upset because the political consultants and staff were talking about voter suppression and keeping blacks from voting,” he said.

Repeating his allegations of voter suppression, Greer last week told the Palm Beach Post, “The Republican Party, the strategists, the consultants, they firmly believe that early voting is bad for Republican Party candidates,”  “It’s done for one reason and one reason only...‘We’ve got to cut down on early voting because early voting is not good for us.’"

"When those consultants and legislative leaders approached me about putting forth election changes to the law that would benefit the Republican Party, I didn't agree to it," Florida 10-News reported.

But in 2010 with Charlie Crist out and Governor Rick Scott in as Governor, Greer says the voter suppression effort had support at the top.

Florida's HB 1355 bill, which was passed by Florida's Republican dominated legislature and signed by Republican Gov. Rick Scott in November 2011, reduced the number of early voting days from 14 down to eight. Republicans promoted the legislation as a measure to reduce rampant voter fraud, but Greer says the voter fraud argument was simply a "marketing ploy. Despite lines during early voting and lines as long as nine hours on Election Day 2012 in Florida, Scott said he stands by the new law.  "Well I'm very comfortable that the right thing happened," he told WKMG Orlando after the election.

Former Governor Charlie Crist and a GOP consultant have also been quoted as part of a growing chorus accusing Republicans of intentionally trying to keep Democrats from the polls.  Gov. Scott's immediate predecessor, the formerly Republican Charlie Crist,says he frustrated Republican legislative efforts to shorten the state's early voting period while he held the governor's office, citing reasons that mesh with Greer's claims.  In an interview with The Huffington Post, Crist said HB 1355 was clearly aimed at curbing turnout among Democrats.

"The only thing that makes any sense as to why this is happening and being done is voter suppression," he said, "People have fought and died for our right to vote, and unfortunately our legislature and this governor have decided they want to make early voting less available to Floridians rather than more available ... It's hard for me as an American to comprehend why you don't make democracy as easy as possible to exercise for the people of our state. It's frankly unconscionable."

Greer acknowledged that the effort to restrict early voting would directly affect turnout among Florida's African Americans, a demographic that consistently supports Democrats. There is "absolutely nothing" state Republicans wouldn't do in their "absolute obsession with retaining power," he told the Post.

Related:

• The Fake Voter Fraud Epidemic And The 2012 Election 
• Women At Risk Of Being Disenfranchised
• Sarah Silverman Explains Voter Photo I.D. Laws
• True the Vote’s Spreading Campaign to Intimidate Minority Voters 
• Texas’ Long History Against Voting Rights
• Texas Restrictive Voter Photo ID Law Blocked By Federal Court
• Federal Court Turns Back Texas' Redistricting Plan 
• Restrictions On Deputy Voter Registrars At Issue 
• Texas Voter Photo ID FAQ

Has The GOP Lost A Generation Of Voters?

Barack Obama won 60% of the vote among those younger than 30, down from 66% in 2008, says a Pew Research Center survey of the 2012 youth vote.  Nationwide, Obama received a blowout 66% of the national vote among the 18-29 year old age group in 2008 compared to McCain's 33% of that vote. Obama also won the 2008 youth vote in many Republican states like Texas, where he won 54% of the vote. Young voters also gave 63% of the vote to House Democrats in 2008 -- Young voters not only voted for Obama at the top of the ballot, they also voted down ballot or straight ticket by a high margin for other Democratic candidates.

The divide between young voters and older voters was as stark this year as it was in 2008. While Obama lost ground among voters younger than 30, he still won this age group by 24 points over Mitt Romney (60% to 36%). He also maintained a slimmer advantage among voters 30 to 44 (52% Obama, 45% Romney), while losing ground among those 45 to 64 and those 65 and older.

Among all voters 30 and older, Obama ran behind Mitt Romney (48% for Obama, 50% for Romney). Four years ago, Obama edged John McCain, 50% to 49%, among all 30+ voters.

In Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania, Obama also failed to win a majority of voters 30 and older. Yet he swept all four battleground states, in part because he won majorities of 60% or more among young voters.

Just as critically, young people made up as large a share of the overall electorate as they did in 2008, according to the national exit poll (19% in 2012, 18% in 2008). As recently as September, young voters were significantly less engaged in the campaign than they had been four years earlier. But their interest and engagement levels increased in the campaign’s final weeks. In the Pew Research Center’s final pre-election survey, as many registered voters under 30 said they were giving a lot of thought to the election as did so in the last weekend of the 2008 race.

Young voters continue to identify with the Democratic Party at relatively high levels and express more liberal attitudes on a range of issues – from gay marriage to the role of the federal government – than do older voters. In fact, voters under 30 were as likely to identify as Democrats in the 2012 exit poll as they had been in 2008 (44% now, 45% then). And they are the only age group in which a majority said that the government should do more to solve problems.

His losses among young voters since 2008 might have been even greater, but for the fact that the under 30s are by far the most racially and ethnically diverse age group. Just 58% are white non-Hispanic, compared with 76% of voters older than 30. A recent report by Pew Social and Demographic Trends found that minorities are on track to become a majority of the overall population by 2050.

The racial and ethnic composition of young voters has shifted dramatically over the last four presidential elections. Just 58% of voters age 18-29 identified as white non-Hispanics, while 18% were Hispanic, 17% were African American and 7% identified as mixed-race or some other race. The share of young voters who are white has declined 16 points since 2000, when 74% of voters under 30 identified as white and 26% identified as nonwhite (including 12% who were African American and 10% Hispanic).

This stands in sharp contrast to older voters. Fully 76% of voters 30 and older were white, down only six points from 2000. Only 24% of voters 30 and older were nonwhite, including 12% who identified as black and 8% as Hispanic.

Read the full survey report @ Pew Research Center.

Related: The Millennial Generation: Our Liberal Future

Collin Co Election Results

by Michael Handley

Like much of the rest of Texas, 2012 Collin County election results drifted to the right.  On measures of both candidate and party, Collin County voted less Democratic and more Republican in 2012 than in 2008.

Obama's performance in Collin County declined on both raw vote count and vote spread and Romney's performance improved over McCain's 2008 vote count and percentage wins.

This table represents early results and does not include
the number of provisional ballots accepted for counting
or final number of mail ballots returned. 3,565
provisional ballots were cast. Final numbers will be
reported in December.

While straight party voting increased for both parties in 2012 over 2008, Republican straight party voting increased much more than Democratic party voting. 4,176 more Democrats and 20,199 more Republicans voted straight party in 2012 over 2008.

Comparing ballots cast as a percentage of registered voters, 2012 turnout lags behind 2008 turnout in Collin County, as it also does in eleven other of Texas' fifteen largest counties.

According to Texas DSHS Center for Health Statistics population estimates the Collin County population base has expanded over the last four years.

While the population has grown, the percentage of voting age persons (VAP) who registered to vote for the presidential election has fallen from 2008 levels.

Does this mean these Texans were less motivated to vote in 2012 than in 2008?

It seems apparent from the county and top line turnout numbers that Texas Democrats, including those who live in Collin County were less motivated to vote in 2012 than in 2008.

Cell Phone Only Voters Making GOTV Phone Banks Obsolete

In the final weeks before Election Day, a scary statistic emerged from the databases at Barack Obama’s Chicago headquarters: more than half the campaign’s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 had no listed phone number. They have adopted a wireless cell phone only lifestyle, effectively immune to the obsolete 20th century "voice phone bank canvassing" get-out-the-vote efforts.

Collin Co. Election Day Vote Center Follow Up

by Michael Handley

Collin County had countywide "Voting Center" polling locations on Election Day, November 6th, 2012.  Election Day Vote Centers worked like Early Voting polling locations where voters living anywhere in Collin County could vote at any of the 67 Voting Centers open around the county on Election Day.

This is a follow up to our November 5th article, Collin Co. Election Day Vote "Anywhere" Centers.  A few locations had wait lines during the day and through out the entire day.  Plano's Carpenter Park Recreation Center location opened with approximately 150 people already waiting in line. The last person to join that line at 7:00 a.m. Tuesday morning, as the Judge called "the polls are open," waited about 70 minutes to vote.  The Carpenter Park Recreation Center wait line ranged from over 70 minutes to about 40 minutes through out the day. About 140 people were waiting in line at that location at 7:00 p.m. Tuesday evening, when the Judge called "the polls are closed." The last person in that closing line voted at 7:50 p.m.

Posted below the "Read more »" jump are the Vote Center ePollBook voter check-in counts. This count does not include manually processed provisional ballots or voters who surrendered their vote by mail ballot to the Election Judges, so they could cast an in-person ballot.

Observer: Texas Democrats, Make Your Move

From The Texas Observer ~ by Eileen Smith

Yes, there have been isolated [Texas Democratic] victories in the form of really good candidates — San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro, his brother Joaquin, the newly elected congressman, and Congressman-elect Pete Gallego who unseated Francesco “Quico” Canseco.  But relying on the random strong candidate instead of building a solid state party infrastructure is like playing the political lottery. You’re just wasting your time and money fantasizing about hitting the jackpot in the form of yet another rising star.

So forget about the great GOP awakening. Now is the perfect time for Texas Democrats to figure out what the hell they’re doing. The default explanation for their dismal showing was that Texas is not just red but bloody red, a stronghold of the Republican Party and ruled with an iron fist by Pharaoh, forcing the Chosen Ones to wander aimlessly in the desert looking for manna from heaven. But now the shifting demographics coupled with a rather clueless opposition party should be working in their favor. In the meantime the only thing Democrats here seem to do is nominate bumbling statewide candidates who can’t do much better than 40 percent. Is that any way to boost morale in a defeatist party so used to losing it’s forgotten how to win?

Read the full article @ The Texas Observer.

Hundreds Of Motor Voters Forced To Cast Provisional Ballots

by Michael Handley

After working the 12 days of early voting as an Election Judge at one of Collin County's busier polling centers, I wrote an article, Broken Texas Motor Voter Registration Process:

Every day during early voting, several people who tried to check-in to vote at my polling location were not listed on the Collin County poll list. The first question I asked these would-be voters was, "when did you register to vote in Collin County?"  The answer most often given by the would-be voters was, "when I changed the address on my driver's license at the DPS (or on the DPS website) after I moved to Collin County," from another Texas county.  A quick voter registration look up on the Texas Secretary of State's "Am I Registered to Vote" web page often found these new, and some not so new, Collin County residents remained registered in the county of their former residence.

The lucky voters who remained registered in their former county of residence got to listen to my short, "you can vote a limited ballot," speech...

The small number of less lucky Collin County voters, who were not registered in any Texas county, got to listen to my short "provisional ballot" speech and proceed through the provisional ballot process...

The broken Texas Motor Voter Registration process has been a top problem for voters and polling place officials for many years...

Hispanic Electorate To Double

Latinos who cast ballots for president this year are the leading edge of an ascendant ethnic voting bloc that is likely to double in size within a generation, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis based on U.S. Census Bureau data, Election Day exit polls and a new nationwide survey of Hispanic immigrants.

According to Pew Hispanic Center projections, Hispanics will account for 40% of the growth in the eligible electorate in the U.S. between now and 2030, at which time 40 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote, up from 23.7 million now.

The nation’s 53 million Hispanics comprise 17% of the total U.S. population but just 10% of all voters this year, according to the national exit poll.

To borrow a boxing metaphor, they still “punch below their weight.”

However, their share of the electorate will rise quickly for several reasons. The most important is that Hispanics are by far the nation’s youngest ethnic group.

Their median age is 27 years—and just 18 years among native-born Hispanics—compared with 42 years for that of white non-Hispanics. In the coming decades, their share of the age-eligible electorate will rise markedly through generational replacement alone.

Moreover, if Hispanics’ relatively low voter participation rates and naturalization rates were to increase to the levels of other groups, the number of votes that Hispanics actually cast in future elections could double within two decades.

Read the full report @  Pew Hispanic Center.

State and District 2012 Texas Election Summary

 by Michael Handley

Down ballot results for statewide and district Democratic candidates follows top of the ballot presidential voting patterns.

U.S. Senate Results by County

Senate Democratic candidate Paul Sadler became the latest Democrat seeking that office to fall far from the 50 percent mark, receiving just 40.5 percent of the vote.

Sadler, a former Texas House member with solid credentials, was no match against the tea party-backed candidate, Ted Cruz, who won with 56.6 percent of the vote.  Cruz got strong support in Tarrant County, winning 57 percent of the vote.

Similarly, Democrat Keith Hampton captured just over 40 percent of the vote in his loss to Republican Sharon Keller for a Texas Court of Criminal Appeals post.  Democrat Michele Petty pulled 42 percent of the vote in her loss to Nathan Hecht for Justice, Texas Supreme Court. Democrat Dale Henry got 40 percent of the vote to Christi Craddick's 56 percent for Railroad Commissioner.

The few brighter spots, including one bittersweet spot, of news for Texas Democrats comes from the Texas Senate and House results.  Senator Mario Gallegos, D-Houston, won re-election to his Texas state Senate seat last Tuesday, three weeks after his death. Sen. Gallegos died on October 16 of complications related to liver disease. Gallegos, who had served since 1994, overwhelmingly beat his challenger, Republican newcomer, R.W. Bray.

Changes For SDEC Committeewoman Linda Magid

Dear Friends:

As we experience and express our joy and gratitude that President Obama was reelected, I must share some disappointing news. My husband accepted a job in San Antonio and we are moving at the end of December. It was a very difficult decision to make in part because I will have to resign from my position as your SDEC representative, but ultimately it is the right one for our family.

Linda Magid with Sen. Wendy Davis at
the 2012 State Democratic Convention

You know how much I love being on the SDEC and helping you make Texas a Democratic state again. It has been my honor to serve as your representative and to bring my abilities and skills to the Texas Democratic Party. I intend to work with the TDP in finding a new place for me where I can continue to make a difference.

Soon SD8 will elect my replacement and I trust you to choose someone with the same commitment that I have to representing all of SD8 and to give you what you need to win. As well, you have a champion in SD 8 Committeeman James White who continues to find new ways to grow the Party locally and work with you all toward Democratic success.

Thank you for trusting me to represent you. I wish you all of the best.

Sincerely,
Linda

Slicing And Dicing The Topline 2012 Texas Election Numbers

by Michael Handley

Republicans have held every statewide office for 14 years, the Legislature for 12 years and every state board and agency for 14 years – with GOP appointees overseeing everything from education to health to the environment.

Texans have voted for Republicans for president in each of the past nine general elections.   Not since 1976 has Texas gone blue in a presidential election year.

Social Media Predicted 2012 Election Results

PRWEB ~ November 09, 2012

The 2012 presidential election results are in, and it is evident that social media played a larger role than ever in the outcome. President Obama dominated the social media battle, and ended up winning the presidency. Despite pollsters claiming a ‘tight’ race in the final days before the election, social media statistics told another story. This divergence raises an important question; Can social media predict election results?

Social media allows people to ‘connect’ with a candidate in a tangible way by providing an open channel of communication. This is a valuable tool for a campaign, as it gives people who are interested in a candidate a way to become engaged and contribute, which is a reality that internet marketers have known for some time.

Predicting Presidential Election Results

Collin Co. Election Day Vote "Anywhere" Centers

by Michael Handley

Collin County will again have countywide "Voting Center" polling locations on Election Day, November 6th, 2012. Election Day Vote Centers work like Early Voting polling locations where voters living anywhere in Collin County may vote at any of the 67 Voting Centers that will be open around the county on Election Day

• Election Day Vote Center Locations

Early Voting 2012 Wrap

by Michael Handley

Comparing early ballots cast as a percentage of registered voters, 2012 turnout lags 2008 turnout in Collin County and ten of Texas' fifteen largest counties. This means that either voters are less motivated in 2012 than in 2008 or more people are just waiting to vote on Election Day.   

Early voting polls closed at 7 p.m. Friday, but many polling places in Collin Co. and around Texas still had people waiting in line to vote at that hour.  The last person in line at 7 p.m. at some polling locations in Collin Co. had to wait over 45 minutes to cast their ballot Friday evening.

The number of Collin Co. ballots cast on Friday was a record 30,908, an increase of 5,667 ballots cast over the 2008 final Friday early voting count.  Some increase in the number of ballots cast in 2008 is expected for this 2012 election, considering the rapid pace of Collin Co. population growth.

Broken Texas Motor Voter Registration Process

by Michael Handley

I haven't been publishing articles over the last twelve days because I've been working at one of the busiest Collin County Early Voting polling locations as an Alternate Election Judge.

The Texas Motor Voter Registration process remains broken.  The most common voter problem Early Voting Election Judges, Alternate Judges and Clerks across Texas handled again this year was the failure of the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) to register some people to vote when they obtained, updated or renewed their driver's license.  In 2012, over a third of all new Texas voters registered to vote through the DPS.

Early Voting In Collin Co.

by Michael Handley

Through the first Thursday of early voting, Texas' 15 largest counties reported nearly 1.18 million in-person and mail ballots had been cast, a 6.8 percent increase over the same period in 2008.

Early voting continues to be brisk in Collin County. The number of ballots cast through Friday is running 10.4 percent ahead of the first six days of 2008 early voting.

While that 10.4 percent numerical increase seems impressive, the enthusiasm of 2012 early voters is not necessarily higher than in 2008. In fact, a case can be made that enthusiasm is down. Take into account that with the county's rapid population growth, the number of people living in Collin Co. has increased from an estimated Voting Age Population (VAP) of 547,209 in 2008  to  667,776 potential voters in 2012.

The table at right projects possible 2012 turnout final numbers for Collin Co. by applying 2008 turnout patterns to current population estimates (Texas DSHS Center for Health Statistics) and voter registration numbers. Approximately 72 percent of population are voting age persons.

In 2008, 77.8 percent (425,994) of the VAP was registered to vote, but only 68.7 percent (458,872) of the Collin Co. VAP is registered for the 2012 general election.

This decrease in the percentage of eligible voters interested in registering to vote certainly suggests a drop in voter enthusiasm from 2008 to 2012. Are those less interested potential voters Republicans, Democrats or a little of both?

To keep things in perspective, 22.5 percent of registered Collin Co. voters turned out to vote during the first six days of 2008 early voting, while the comparable 2012 accumulated turnout of registered voters is only 23.1 percent.

Comparing the 2008 to 2012 daily percentage of registered Collin Co. voters going to polling places also shows little change in voter enthusiasm. 

The impressive numerical turnout increase over 2008 for 2012 days one and two followed by significantly less impressive days three, four, five and six of Collin Co. early voting suggests that perhaps some of the early vote may have simply shifted to the early days of early voting.

Collin Co.Daily
Percentage of
Registered Voters
Voting

A Gallup poll out Friday shows the make up of the electorate nationally also remains virtually unchanged since the 2008 election. The survey of likely voters shows nonwhites, blacks and Hispanics sharing roughly the same share of the electorate they did in 2008.

According to Gallup's year by year analysis, blacks account for 11 percent of voters this year when in 2008, they made up 12 percent of the electorate. And Gallup predicts Hispanics grew to be 7 percent of the electorate, a one point increase since 2008.

"Key elements of President Barack Obama's electoral coalitions, such as racial minorities, women, young adults and postgraduates will likely turn out at rates similar to those in 2008," the survey says.

DBN Endorses Jack Ternan For Texas Senate District 8

by Michael Handley, Democratic Blog News Managing Editor

Jack Ternan's campaign for Texas Senate District 8 last week released two campaign videos. Jack G. B. Ternan, Jr. is the Democratic candidate for Texas State Senate, District 8.

2012 Early Voting In Collin Co. Starts Brisk

At the end of the first days of 2012 early voting in Collin County, the vote count was running well ahead of 2008 early voting. This year, 16,531 people voted in-person on day one, 18,063 people voted on day two and 16,673 people voted on day three  of early voting.  Plus, 4,997 vote by mail ballots had been returned to the Collin County Early Voting Clerk by the second day of early voting.

In 2008, 13,900 people voted on the first day, 15,356 people voted on day two and 15,563 people voted on day three of early voting in Collin Co.

Collin Co. November General Election
Election Year	2008	2012
Total Population	760,013	927,466
Registered Voters	425,994	460,000
Voting Age Population (VAP)	547,209	667,776
Percentage of VAP Registered	77.8%	68.9%
Total Turnout	298,647	317,400
Early Turnout In-Person	211,637	225,037
Percent Early	70.9%	70.9%
Election Day Turnout In-Person	75,009	79,350
Percent Election Day	25.1%	25.0%
Vote By Mail Turnout	11,834	12,696
Percent VBM	4.0%	4.0%
Percent of Turnout to Registered	70.1%	69.0%
Percent of Turnout to VAP	54.6%	47.5%

According to Texas DSHS Center for Health Statistics population estimates, Collin Co. has grown to 927,466 residents during 2012, with approximately 72 percent of that number representing voting age persons.

The table at right projects possible 2012 turnout numbers for Collin Co. by applying 2008 turnout patterns to current population estimates and voter registration numbers.

Turnout across the rest of North Texas is also strong. More than 70,000 voters cast ballots Monday in Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton Counties. Texas turned out in high numbers across the state on the first day of early voting, too, setting records in some places.

The Texas Secretary of State reported Tuesday that more than 378,000 people cast early ballots Monday in the state's 15 most populous counties, either by mail or in person. That's about 4.6 percent of the registered voters in those counties. More than 32,000 people cast early ballots in Dallas County and another 30,000 ballots were cast in Tarrant County. In Denton County, 12,000 people turned out to vote early.

GO VOTE!

Early voting for the November 6, 2012 General Election starts Monday October 22, 2012. November 6, 2012 General Election Information:

• Collin Co. Early Voting Locations & Hours
• Collin Co. Election Day Polling Locations
• Collin Co. Sample Ballots
• Texas-wide polling places and times at VoteTexas.gov 

Presidential Debate Watch: Get Fired Up And Ready To Vote

We invite you to get "fired up and ready to go" for the rest of the campaign Monday evening, October 22nd by attending a Debate Watch at Rugby House Pub, in north west Plano ~ 8604 Preston Rd., Suite 100, Plano, Tx 75024. (map)

Come watch the October 22nd debate between Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama with your Democratic friends and neighbors. The debate telecast starts a 8:00 pm, but you are welcome to come early to order drinks and food and chat with your friends and neighbors.

This 90-minute debate, moderated by CBS' Face the Nation host Bob Schieffer, telecast from Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, will be broken up into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes, each on Foreign Policy.

The Texas Democratic Women of Collin County, Democratic Network, Democratic Blog News, Plano Drinking Liberally and a local OFA group are co-sponsors of this debate watch event at Rugby House Pub media room. 

State Education Budget Cuts Hit Collin Co. Schools

Of the $5.4 billion cut from public education, the school districts in Texas Senate District 8 suffered an estimated loss of $119.2 million in 2013, according to the Legislative Budget Board. Plano, Frisco and Richardson ISDs were dealt the lion's share, losing $35.1 million, $26.9 million and $20.9 million respectively.

"The millions of dollars that were cut from schools in District 8 have had a direct impact in the classrooms," Democratic candidate for Texas Senate District 8 Jack Ternan said. "Our elementary schools sent more than 400 class size waiver requests to the Texas Education Agency, and 289 of those waivers came from Richardson ISD alone."

"Voting to cut funds from public education like Rep. Paxton did is irresponsible," Ternan said. "Education is the backbone in our community. It must be supported if we want our kids to succeed in the future."

DMN Endorses Paul Sadler for U.S. Senate

Dallas Morning News Editorial Board Endorses Paul Sadler for U.S. Senate

Texans face a decision in this election that has come before them only twice over the last four decades: How to fill a Senate seat that has carried with it a proud lineage of service to the state and nation.

Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is stepping down after almost 20 years in Washington, where she made it a top priority to look out for Texans’ national, state and even personal needs. She first won her post in 1993, succeeding Democrat Lloyd Bentsen, who served for 22 years. Like Hutchison, he provided consistent constituent aid as well as leadership on national and state matters.

The committed work of these two bipartisan leaders to their state creates an impressive, demanding legacy for their successor. Recommending the right candidate to follow in the Hutchison-Bentsen tradition is a responsibility this newspaper takes seriously. That’s why we’ve interviewed both candidates multiple times, examined their public careers, reviewed their answers to our questionnaire, spoken with others who know them well and followed their activities on the campaign trail.

After that thorough examination, we believe Democrat Paul Sadler, 57, is the best person to uphold this legacy of service to Texas and to keep our state relevant where it matters most.

Read the full endorsement editorial @ The Dallas Morning News.


Ted Cruz would eliminate the Department of Education,
cutting billions more from Texas' education budget.


Paul Sadler speaks to Texans in Houston, TX

Record Voter Registrations in Collin Co.

by Michael Handley

New voter registration applications postmarked by Tuesday October 9th that had been processed through Wednesday pushed Collin County to a record 458,161 registered voters. When the last registration application for this election has been processed, the number of registered Collin County voters will likely top 460K. That is a significant increase over the 438,206 voters registered for the July 31, 2012 runoff election and the 425K registered voters for the 2008 general election.

As another indication that Collin Co voter interest in the 2012 election may be as strong as in 2008, the Collin County Elections Clerk has already processed over 9,000 vote by mail applications and received back over 3,000 vote by mail ballot envelopes.  In 2008, 11,834 vote by mail ballots were returned to the County Elections Clerk.

Texas November 2008  General Election
Registered Voters	13,575,062
Voting Age Population (VAP)	17,735,442
Percentage of VAP Registered	76.5%
Turnout	8,077,795
Percent of Turnout to Registered	59.5%
Percent of Turnout to VAP	45.5%

Earlier this week, Texas Secretary of State Hope Andrade announced that Texas reached a record number of registered voters.  As of Monday, October 15, there were 13,594,264 voters registered across Texas' 254 counties, which is 71 percent of the estimated 19,194,381 voting age Texans.

The previous record number of registered voters was 13,575,062, set for the November 2008 General Election.  Despite the surge in registrations back in 2008, only 59.5 percent of registered Texas voters actually cast a ballot that November.  Texas is at the bottom of the list of all states for the percentage of voting age persons who register to vote and then actually turns out to vote.

Due to the volume of voter registration applications submitted just prior to the registration deadline, many local county election officials are still processing applications. October 9th was the last day to drop a voter registration application in a mailbox in order to be registered to vote in the November 6, 2012 General Election.

It is anyone's guess how many Texans will turn out to vote for this election. One safe guess is that at least two thirds of the Texas ballots will be cast during early voting.  Texas was a pioneer in early voting.  In 1987, the Texas legislature passed legislation calling for early no-excuse absentee voting.  That legislation created the opportunity for Texans to vote in person at the county election office in each of Texas' 254 counties.

In 1991, the early voting law was amended to require a minimum number of early voting locations in each county.    Originally, the early voting period began twenty days prior to the election and ended four days prior to the election, providing seventeen days of early voting. Amendments have set the early voting to either twelve days for general elections and primary elections or nine days for elections held on the May uniform election date.

Since its inception in 1988, the percentage of the vote that is cast early has increased significantly. From 1988 to 1992, the percentage of the early vote increased from slightly more than 20 percent to approximately 33 percent.

The graph  traces the rise of early voting since 1994, surpassing 50 percent in 2004 and climbing to two-thirds of the vote in 2008.

In 2008, 66.5 percent of statewide Texas ballots and 70.1 percent of Collin County ballots were cast during in-person early voting.

The fast start to 2012 early voting, in states where early voting has already started, suggests that overall turnout this year, both early and on Election Day, will not be substantially lower than 2008.

Early voting, so far, is on pace to exceed 2008 levels, when 30.6 percent of all votes nationally were cast prior to Election Day.  Early voting has been particularly brisk this year in Iowa and Ohio, where early voting numbers are running well above their comparable 2008 levels. Nationally, more than 3,344,856 people have already voted in the 2012 general election where early in-person and absentee mail voting is underway.

Early voting in Texas begins at 8:00 am Monday, October 22nd and runs through 7:00 pm Friday, November 2nd. (Texas polling places and times at VoteTexas.gov and for Collin Co. at CollinCountyTx.gov)

Turnout across Texas' 254 counties in 2012 could look similar to the 2008 county-by-county turnout when Obama received 43.6 percent of the statewide vote to McCain's 55.4 percent.  Obama won 28 counties and won 54 percent of the statewide vote from voters ages 18-29, McCain won the rest of Texas. 

In the last three Texas general elections, nine counties have made up between 51-54% of the total vote: Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, Collin, Denton, Fort Bend and El Paso.  In 2004, these counties represented 52.93% of the total vote and in 2008, they represented 54.32% of the total vote.  In 2006 and 2008, Democrats won straight ticket voting in six (Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, Fort Bend and El Paso) of the nine counties, but won only two counties in the top nine (Dallas and Travis) in 2010.

In the 2008 general election, 170,076 Collin Co. voters cast a straight party ballot with 66.2 percent of that number (112,595) voting straight Republican to 33.2 percent (56,593) voting straight Democratic Party. The remaining 128,571 voters marked each ballot position individually. McCain won Collin Co. with 184,897 (62%) votes to Obama's 109,047 (37%) votes.

Collin Co. November General Election
Election Year	2008	2012
Total Population	760,013	927,466
Registered Voters	425,994	460,000
Voting Age Population (VAP)	547,209	667,776
Percentage of VAP Registered	77.8%	68.9%
Total Turnout	298,647	317,400
Early Turnout In-Person	211,637	225,037
Percent Early	70.9%	70.9%
Election Day Turnout In-Person	75,009	79,350
Percent Election Day	25.1%	25.0%
Vote By Mail Turnout	11,834	12,696
Percent VBM	4.0%	4.0%
Percent of Turnout to Registered	70.1%	69.0%
Percent of Turnout to VAP	54.6%	47.5%

 In the 2010 general election, Collin Co. Republicans won 72.9 percent of the the straight ticket vote. In contrast, 60 percent of the 2008 straight ticket vote and 53 percent of the 2010 straight ticket vote in Dallas Co. was for the Democratic Party.  Democrats swept Dallas Co. in 2008 and hung on to those wins in the 2010 General Election.

While population is decreasing in some Texas counties, other counties continue their strong population growth.  According to Texas DSHS Center for Health Statistics population estimates, Collin Co. has grown to 927,466 residents during 2012, with approximately 72 percent of that number representing voting age persons.

The table at right projects possible 2012 turnout numbers for Collin Co. by applying 2008 turnout patterns to current population estimates and voter registration numbers.