State and District 2012 Texas Election Summary

 by Michael Handley

Down ballot results for statewide and district Democratic candidates follows top of the ballot presidential voting patterns.

U.S. Senate Results by County

Senate Democratic candidate Paul Sadler became the latest Democrat seeking that office to fall far from the 50 percent mark, receiving just 40.5 percent of the vote.

Sadler, a former Texas House member with solid credentials, was no match against the tea party-backed candidate, Ted Cruz, who won with 56.6 percent of the vote.  Cruz got strong support in Tarrant County, winning 57 percent of the vote.

Similarly, Democrat Keith Hampton captured just over 40 percent of the vote in his loss to Republican Sharon Keller for a Texas Court of Criminal Appeals post.  Democrat Michele Petty pulled 42 percent of the vote in her loss to Nathan Hecht for Justice, Texas Supreme Court. Democrat Dale Henry got 40 percent of the vote to Christi Craddick's 56 percent for Railroad Commissioner.

The few brighter spots, including one bittersweet spot, of news for Texas Democrats comes from the Texas Senate and House results.  Senator Mario Gallegos, D-Houston, won re-election to his Texas state Senate seat last Tuesday, three weeks after his death. Sen. Gallegos died on October 16 of complications related to liver disease. Gallegos, who had served since 1994, overwhelmingly beat his challenger, Republican newcomer, R.W. Bray.

Changes For SDEC Committeewoman Linda Magid

Dear Friends:

As we experience and express our joy and gratitude that President Obama was reelected, I must share some disappointing news. My husband accepted a job in San Antonio and we are moving at the end of December. It was a very difficult decision to make in part because I will have to resign from my position as your SDEC representative, but ultimately it is the right one for our family.

Linda Magid with Sen. Wendy Davis at
the 2012 State Democratic Convention

You know how much I love being on the SDEC and helping you make Texas a Democratic state again. It has been my honor to serve as your representative and to bring my abilities and skills to the Texas Democratic Party. I intend to work with the TDP in finding a new place for me where I can continue to make a difference.

Soon SD8 will elect my replacement and I trust you to choose someone with the same commitment that I have to representing all of SD8 and to give you what you need to win. As well, you have a champion in SD 8 Committeeman James White who continues to find new ways to grow the Party locally and work with you all toward Democratic success.

Thank you for trusting me to represent you. I wish you all of the best.

Sincerely,
Linda

Slicing And Dicing The Topline 2012 Texas Election Numbers

by Michael Handley

Republicans have held every statewide office for 14 years, the Legislature for 12 years and every state board and agency for 14 years – with GOP appointees overseeing everything from education to health to the environment.

Texans have voted for Republicans for president in each of the past nine general elections.   Not since 1976 has Texas gone blue in a presidential election year.

Social Media Predicted 2012 Election Results

PRWEB ~ November 09, 2012

The 2012 presidential election results are in, and it is evident that social media played a larger role than ever in the outcome. President Obama dominated the social media battle, and ended up winning the presidency. Despite pollsters claiming a ‘tight’ race in the final days before the election, social media statistics told another story. This divergence raises an important question; Can social media predict election results?

Social media allows people to ‘connect’ with a candidate in a tangible way by providing an open channel of communication. This is a valuable tool for a campaign, as it gives people who are interested in a candidate a way to become engaged and contribute, which is a reality that internet marketers have known for some time.

Predicting Presidential Election Results

Collin Co. Election Day Vote "Anywhere" Centers

by Michael Handley

Collin County will again have countywide "Voting Center" polling locations on Election Day, November 6th, 2012. Election Day Vote Centers work like Early Voting polling locations where voters living anywhere in Collin County may vote at any of the 67 Voting Centers that will be open around the county on Election Day

• Election Day Vote Center Locations

Early Voting 2012 Wrap

by Michael Handley

Comparing early ballots cast as a percentage of registered voters, 2012 turnout lags 2008 turnout in Collin County and ten of Texas' fifteen largest counties. This means that either voters are less motivated in 2012 than in 2008 or more people are just waiting to vote on Election Day.   

Early voting polls closed at 7 p.m. Friday, but many polling places in Collin Co. and around Texas still had people waiting in line to vote at that hour.  The last person in line at 7 p.m. at some polling locations in Collin Co. had to wait over 45 minutes to cast their ballot Friday evening.

The number of Collin Co. ballots cast on Friday was a record 30,908, an increase of 5,667 ballots cast over the 2008 final Friday early voting count.  Some increase in the number of ballots cast in 2008 is expected for this 2012 election, considering the rapid pace of Collin Co. population growth.

Broken Texas Motor Voter Registration Process

by Michael Handley

I haven't been publishing articles over the last twelve days because I've been working at one of the busiest Collin County Early Voting polling locations as an Alternate Election Judge.

The Texas Motor Voter Registration process remains broken.  The most common voter problem Early Voting Election Judges, Alternate Judges and Clerks across Texas handled again this year was the failure of the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) to register some people to vote when they obtained, updated or renewed their driver's license.  In 2012, over a third of all new Texas voters registered to vote through the DPS.

Early Voting In Collin Co.

by Michael Handley

Through the first Thursday of early voting, Texas' 15 largest counties reported nearly 1.18 million in-person and mail ballots had been cast, a 6.8 percent increase over the same period in 2008.

Early voting continues to be brisk in Collin County. The number of ballots cast through Friday is running 10.4 percent ahead of the first six days of 2008 early voting.

While that 10.4 percent numerical increase seems impressive, the enthusiasm of 2012 early voters is not necessarily higher than in 2008. In fact, a case can be made that enthusiasm is down. Take into account that with the county's rapid population growth, the number of people living in Collin Co. has increased from an estimated Voting Age Population (VAP) of 547,209 in 2008  to  667,776 potential voters in 2012.

The table at right projects possible 2012 turnout final numbers for Collin Co. by applying 2008 turnout patterns to current population estimates (Texas DSHS Center for Health Statistics) and voter registration numbers. Approximately 72 percent of population are voting age persons.

In 2008, 77.8 percent (425,994) of the VAP was registered to vote, but only 68.7 percent (458,872) of the Collin Co. VAP is registered for the 2012 general election.

This decrease in the percentage of eligible voters interested in registering to vote certainly suggests a drop in voter enthusiasm from 2008 to 2012. Are those less interested potential voters Republicans, Democrats or a little of both?

To keep things in perspective, 22.5 percent of registered Collin Co. voters turned out to vote during the first six days of 2008 early voting, while the comparable 2012 accumulated turnout of registered voters is only 23.1 percent.

Comparing the 2008 to 2012 daily percentage of registered Collin Co. voters going to polling places also shows little change in voter enthusiasm. 

The impressive numerical turnout increase over 2008 for 2012 days one and two followed by significantly less impressive days three, four, five and six of Collin Co. early voting suggests that perhaps some of the early vote may have simply shifted to the early days of early voting.

Collin Co.Daily
Percentage of
Registered Voters
Voting

A Gallup poll out Friday shows the make up of the electorate nationally also remains virtually unchanged since the 2008 election. The survey of likely voters shows nonwhites, blacks and Hispanics sharing roughly the same share of the electorate they did in 2008.

According to Gallup's year by year analysis, blacks account for 11 percent of voters this year when in 2008, they made up 12 percent of the electorate. And Gallup predicts Hispanics grew to be 7 percent of the electorate, a one point increase since 2008.

"Key elements of President Barack Obama's electoral coalitions, such as racial minorities, women, young adults and postgraduates will likely turn out at rates similar to those in 2008," the survey says.

DBN Endorses Jack Ternan For Texas Senate District 8

by Michael Handley, Democratic Blog News Managing Editor

Jack Ternan's campaign for Texas Senate District 8 last week released two campaign videos. Jack G. B. Ternan, Jr. is the Democratic candidate for Texas State Senate, District 8.

2012 Early Voting In Collin Co. Starts Brisk

At the end of the first days of 2012 early voting in Collin County, the vote count was running well ahead of 2008 early voting. This year, 16,531 people voted in-person on day one, 18,063 people voted on day two and 16,673 people voted on day three  of early voting.  Plus, 4,997 vote by mail ballots had been returned to the Collin County Early Voting Clerk by the second day of early voting.

In 2008, 13,900 people voted on the first day, 15,356 people voted on day two and 15,563 people voted on day three of early voting in Collin Co.

Collin Co. November General Election
Election Year	2008	2012
Total Population	760,013	927,466
Registered Voters	425,994	460,000
Voting Age Population (VAP)	547,209	667,776
Percentage of VAP Registered	77.8%	68.9%
Total Turnout	298,647	317,400
Early Turnout In-Person	211,637	225,037
Percent Early	70.9%	70.9%
Election Day Turnout In-Person	75,009	79,350
Percent Election Day	25.1%	25.0%
Vote By Mail Turnout	11,834	12,696
Percent VBM	4.0%	4.0%
Percent of Turnout to Registered	70.1%	69.0%
Percent of Turnout to VAP	54.6%	47.5%

According to Texas DSHS Center for Health Statistics population estimates, Collin Co. has grown to 927,466 residents during 2012, with approximately 72 percent of that number representing voting age persons.

The table at right projects possible 2012 turnout numbers for Collin Co. by applying 2008 turnout patterns to current population estimates and voter registration numbers.

Turnout across the rest of North Texas is also strong. More than 70,000 voters cast ballots Monday in Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton Counties. Texas turned out in high numbers across the state on the first day of early voting, too, setting records in some places.

The Texas Secretary of State reported Tuesday that more than 378,000 people cast early ballots Monday in the state's 15 most populous counties, either by mail or in person. That's about 4.6 percent of the registered voters in those counties. More than 32,000 people cast early ballots in Dallas County and another 30,000 ballots were cast in Tarrant County. In Denton County, 12,000 people turned out to vote early.