Sunday, October 25, 2020

Texas 2020 vs 2016 Turnout - EV Day 12

Texas currently has 16.95 million people, or about 78% of the state’s voting-age population, registered to vote for a net gain of 1.85 million voters over the 15.1 million Texans registered for the 2016 general election. However, there are more than 3 million Texans currently registered who were not registered in 2016. Most of those new registrations are in the 12 most populous and rapidly growing urban/suburban counties that are increasingly left-leaning. (See table below) 

Most people don't realize the rolls of registered voters are more dynamic than just the top line net gain number suggests. Between elections registered voters move from one election juristiction to another and older voters die, constantly adding to and subtracting from registrations across the state’s 254 counties. Young people pass their 18th birthday and register and non-voting citizens are finally motivated to register, which steadily add registrations to the rolls of voters. So, Texas has really gained 3 million — 1.85 million net additionally, plus 1.25 new (replacement) — mostly younger voters for the 2020 general elections. The Texas electorate has fundamentally shifted over the past few years to become one of the youngest and most diverse electorates in the country.

The lion’s share of the net gain in registrations go to the 12 most populous fast growing counties where increasing portions of voters are left-leaning in their political views. Of the 1.85 million additional voters, 1.3 million reside in one of the 12 urban/suburban counties, as shown in the table below. Just over one-half million of the new voters reside in one of the remaining 242 rural counties.  (Additional registration data is at the bottom of this post.)

12 Largest
Counties
2016
Registrations
2020
Registrations
Delta
Harris 2,234,678 2,480,522 245,844
Dallas 1,287,171 1,398,469 111,298
Tarrant 1,077,618 1,212,524 134,906
Bexar 1,045,360 1,189,373 144,013
Travis 725,041 854,577 129,536
Collin 540,084 648,670 108,586
Denton 464,829 565,089 100,260
El Paso 428,320 488,470 60,150
Fort Bend 404,038 482,368 78,330
Hidalgo 338,563 391,309 52,746
Williamson 299,960 376,672 76,712
Montgomery 311,882 370,060 58,178
Total 9,157,544 10,458,103 1,300,559

All the polling now suggests Texas’ voters — new and old — have already decided for whom they will mark their ballots and they are anxious to get on with it and get it done. The massive first day of early in-person turnout produced long lines at polling places across the state’s 12 most populous urban, suburban and exurban counties, as well as some of the state’s more populous rural counties.

Trump accelerated sunbelt states flipping blue by two election cycles. Texas and Arizona are in play this year — a pace faster than political analysts expected. “Census data show that from April 2010 through July 2019, the latest period for which figures are available, Maricopa (Phoenix) added more people than any other US county, with Harris (Houston) ranking second, Clark (Las Vegas) fourth, and five other Texas counties — Tarrant (Fort Worth), Bexar (San Antonio), Dallas, Collin (just north of Dallas) and Travis (Austin) — all finishing in the top 10,” the data shows.

As CNN’s Ron Brownstein notes, the collapse of the GOP across these counties should be a red flag for the GOP because they contain some of the fastest-growing communities in the country, quickly being take over by left-leaning voters.

Texas EV Day 12 Turnout Report - Updated Daily

The normal 12 days of early voting in Texas usually concludes with a big turnout on the last EV day. In 2016, 458,597 in-person ballots were cast across the state’s 12 most populous counties on the the last day of the early period. But this year, Texas has 18 days of early voting, so the 12th day of early voting this year, with 6 days of early voting to go, wasn’t as busy across those 12 counties.

Only 199,931 in-person ballots were cast on the 12th day of this year’s early voting period, on the second Saturday of early voting. Typically, the early voting period includes one one weekend. The day by day comparison of early voting numbers concludes with 363,281 more in-person and mail ballots cast across the 12 most populous counties over the first 12 days this year than were cast over the full 12 day period in 2016.

As of Saturday, EV day 12, 4.6 million (44.2%) of the 10.46 million registered voters across Texas’ 12 largest counties had cast in-person and mail ballots. That compares to 4.26 million people who had voted through the last day of early voting in 2016 - 46.5% of the then registered voters in those counties.

Turnout across those 12 counties accounts for 64.2 percent of the 7.2M Texans who have so far cast an early in-person or mail ballot. The other 242 counties account for 35.8 percent of the Texans who have voted early so far. According to the latest figures reported by the secretary of state, 61.7 percent of registered voters live in these 12 counties.

Across all of Texas’ 254 counties 42.4 percent (7.2M) of the 16.96M Texans currently registered to vote in this election had cast an early ballot. Breaking that down between the states 12 most populous rapidly growing urban/suburban increasingly left-leaning counties and the other 242 mostly stagnant and aging rural population of rock-ribbed Republican counties: In the 12 counties, 4.62 million (44.18%) of the 10.46 million registered voters have voted, and in the 242 counties, 2.57 million (39.61%) of the 6.50 million registered voters have voted.

The total ballots cast through Saturday this year accounts for 82.2 percent of the 8.97M total votes cast for a presidential candidate through Election Day 2016.

Among Texas’ largest suburban counties, Collin, Denton, and Williamson have some of the highest turnout rates in the state, now surpassing 50 percent of registered voters.

Collin County is one of Texas’ bellwether red to blue counties. The county has 648.7K registered voters, an increase of 108.6K voters since the 2016 general election. While I thought more than 70 percent of those registered voters would vote in this election, I based my initial turnout projections on that turnout level. Seventy percent turnout would yield 454.1K total ballots cast for the election. My turnout breakdown at that level was 80 percent (363.3K) of the total ballots would be cast early in-person, 6 percent (27.2K) would be cast by mail, and 14 percent (63.6K) would be cast in-person on election day.

District

Total Election Ballots Cast 2016

Day 12 EV Ballots Cast 2020

State HD 33 +

47,986

47,985

State HD 66

73,586

64,697

State HD 67

76,364

71,281

State HD 70

87,721

91,068

State HD 89

79,491

73,029

Total 

365,148

348,060

US TX-03

324,932

307,818

As the table shows, ballots cast through the first 12 days of early voting across the state house and congressional districts within the boarders of Collin Co. (only Collin Co.) equal the number of ballots cast for the entire 2016 general election. 

My initial turnout projection for Collin Co. now looks too low. When polls closed after the 12th day of early voting, 53.7 percent of the registered voters had already cast 325.2K in-person and 23.1K mail ballots, totaling 348.4K ballots cast, so far. With six more days of early voting, plus Election Day to go, the actual ballots cast numbers are only 38K under my in-person early ballots projection and 4.1K under my total election mail ballot projection. Total early ballots cast so far are only 105.7K under my 454.1K total ballots cast projection for the entire election.

It’s time to ask the question: Can Collin Co. turnout top 75 percent of registered voters? A turnout of 75 percent would yield a total election vote tally of 486.5K ballots cast. That’s an additional 138K ballots on top of the 12 day early in-person and mail ballot count. If daily in-person turnout averages 20k ballots cast per day over the last five weekdays of early voting, and 50K in-person ballots are cast on Election Day, that alone would yield over 150K more ballots on top of the ballots cast through the 12th day of early voting. That seems entirely possible.

If the pace of voting continues through the close of early voting next Friday, the state could see as many as 12 million Texans, or about 70 percent of the state’s record 16.96 million registered voters, turn out to vote.

The last time Texas turnout topped 60 percent turnout was 1992 when 72.9 percent of registered voters cast a ballot for G.H.W Bush, Bill Clinton, Ross Perot, or other minor candidate. For more than 25 years Texas has been almost last or dead last among the states in voter turnout. Overall turnout in Texas over the years has been persistently weak because younger voters have been missing in action when it comes to voting.

This year, however, Texas is one of the leading states in turnout because younger voters have both engage in voting and in helping to turn out the state’s registered voters. The Washington Post has a great interactive map (right) for tracking the statewide totals.

As of October 21, more than 3 million young people (ages 18-29) across the U.S. had already cast an in-person or mail ballot, according to data from Tufts University. The numbers are especially dramatic in Texas, where at least 490,000 young people had already cast ballots during the first 9 days of early voting.

For the 2018 general election between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and his Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 62.8 percent of the total election vote was cast across Texas’ 12 rapidly growing most populous increasingly left-leaning counties, and 37.2 percent was cast across the state’s other 242 rural largely Republican stronghold stable population counties. O’Rourke beat Cruz 57.8% to 41.4% in the 12 counties. Cruz was able to narrowly beat O’Rourke only by running up his vote two-to-one in Texas' Republican rural counties.

For the 2016 election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump the split was 61.5 percent to 38.5 percent. For the 2012 election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney the split was 60.3 percent 39.7 percent. The 2008 split was 59.9 percent to 40.1 percent.

If the turnout ratio between the 12 increasingly left-leaning urban/suburban counties and the remaining 242 rural counties remains at 64.3 percent of the ballots cast from the 12 left-leaning counties to 35.7 percent from the remaining right-leaning less populous rural counties through Election Day, Biden will likely take Texas’ 38 electoral college votes.

It’s often said, Texas isn’t a red state, it’s a non-voting state. In the 2016 presidential election, Texas placed near the bottom of all the states in voter turnout, ranking 47th with a turnout rate of 59.4 percent. This year, we may find out if there’s any truth to that saying, Texas isn’t a red state, it’s a non-voting state, if overall turnout does approach the 70 percent level. Turnout that high, with over 64 percent of the state’s ballots cast by voters who reside in the state’s 12 left-leaning urban/suburban counties, spells trouble for Texas Republicans, and every Republican with aspirations to occupy the White House in the future.

Put it all together, and you get the perfect storm for Joe Biden and Texas Democrats. A new DMN/UTT poll released Sunday found Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in Texas as Independents and Hispanics, and those who voted 3rd party or didn’t vote in 2016, are breaking toward Biden. Biden leads Trump among likely voters 48-45 percent.

Biden, who was 2 points behind Trump among likely voters in the September DMN/UTT survey, has expanding his support among independents and has a better than 3-to-1 advantage among Hispanic voters.

Trump has been the least popular Republican presidential candidate in two generations in Texas. The Texans have never warmed up to Trump, as his approval rating in the state has lagged well behind the approvals of past presidents. When Trump’s fundamental weakness in the state is combined with the personal likability of Joe Biden and the gains that Democrats have been making for the past few years, it adds up to a perfect storm where Texas is in play for Democrats.

It would be great for Democrats to flip Texas, but it is better for Biden that Trump has to defend Texas while he concentrates on Trump’s must win states like Pennsylvania and Florida.

If Biden wins Texas, the election will be over an election night due to a Democratic landslide.

Comparison of 2020 v. 2016 turnout in the
12 most populous counties.

Daily Turnout Comparison for Texas’ 12 Most Populous Urban/Suburban Counties

Voting Day

In-Person

 Daily

Cumulative In-Person Voters

% of Total

 Vote Cast

Mail Ballots Returned Daily

Cumulative Mail Voters

% of Total

 Vote Cast

Cumulative In-Person & Mail Vote

 % of Reg Voted

% of 2020 State Wide Cumul. Vote

1 2020

457,711

458,710

65.2%

244,376

244,376

34.8%

703,086

6.7%

62.6%

1 2016

370,589

370,589

68.4%

171,340

171,340

31.6%

541,929

5.9%


2 2020

449,677

908,387

77.7%

16,893

261,269

22.3%

1,169,656

11.2%

62.0%

2 2016

378,525

749,114

80.6%

8,752

180,092

19.4%

929,206

10.2%


3 2020

439,638

1,348,025

82.0%

33,760

295,029

18.0%

1,643,054

15.7%

62.1%

3 2016

365,940

1,115,054

84.8%

19,921

200,013

15.2%

1,315,067

14.4%


4 2020

456,270

1,804,295

84.5%

35,723

330,752

15.5%

2,135,047

20.4%

62.2%

4 2016

351,401

1,466,455

87.3%

13,680

213,693

12.7%

1,680,148

18.4%


5 2020

323,164

2,127,459

85.7%

23,257

354,009

14.3%

2,481,468

23.7%

63.9%

5 2016

361,560

1,828,015

89.0%

12,641

226,334

11.0%

2,054,349

22.4%


6 2020

128,964

2,256,423

85.8%

19,200

373,209

14.2%

2,629,632

25.1%

64.5%

6 2016

307,342

2,135,357

90.0%

9,758

236,092

10.0%

2,371,449

25.9%


7 2020

371,752

2,633,491

86.6%

32,980

406,189

13.4%

3,039,680

29.1%

64.1%

7 2016

138,783

2,274,140

90.4%

5,027

241,119

9.6%

2,515,259

27.5%


8 2020

351,075

2,989,888

87.1%

38,541

444,730

12.9%

3,434,618

32.8%

64.2%

8 2016

291,102

2,565,242

90.9%

16,649

257,768

9.1%

2,823,010

30.8%


9 2020

317,767

3,310,557

87.6%

23,976

468,706

12.4%

3,779,263

36.1%

64.2%

9 2016

305,558

2,870,800

91.6%

6,210

263,978

8.4%

3,134,778

34.2%


10 2020

281,634

3,592,327

87.7%

37,445

506,151

12.3%

4,098,478

39.2%

64.1%

10 2016

310,068

3,180,868

92.1%

6,210

274,022

7.9%

3,454,890

37.7%


11 2020

297,800

3,890,139

88.1%

19,341

525,492

11.9%

4,415,631

42.2%

64.3%

11 2016

324,116

3,504,984

92.5%

9,680

283,702

7.5%

3,788,686

41.4%


12 2020

199,931

4,079,878

88.3%

14,771

540,263

11.7%

4,620,141

44.2%

64.2%

12 2016

458,597

3,963,581

93.1%

9,577

293,279

6.9%

4,256,860

46.5%


13 2020










14 2020










15 2020










16 2020










17 2020










18 2020










ED 2020










ED 2016

1,324,040

5,371,788

95.7%

9,952

320,684

5.7%

5,614,214

61.3%



Texas’ 12 most populous urban/suburban counties — Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, Collin, Denton, El Paso, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, Montgomery, and Williamson — 2016 Reg Voters: 9,154,375; 2020 Reg Voters: 10,403,266  

Source — Texas Secretary of State / DemBlogNews.com





Daily Turnout for Texas’ 254 Counties

2020 Voting Day

In-Person

 Daily

Cumulative In-Person Voters

% of Total

 Vote Cast

Mail Ballots Returned Daily

Cumulative Mail Voters

% of Total

 Vote Cast

Cumulative In-Person & Mail Vote

 % of Reg Voted

 % 2016 Total Vote

1

750,293

750,293

66.8%

372,883

372,883

33.2%

1,123,176

6.6%

12.5%

2

726,220

1,476,513

78.3%

36,956

409,839

21.7%

1,886,352

11.1%

21.0%

3

698,196

2,179,324

82.3%

58,682

468,521

17.7%

2,647,845

15.6%

29.5%

4

722,177

2,903,136

84.6%

60,458

528,979

15.4%

3,432,115

20.2%

38.3%

5

415,161

3,322,987

85.6%

29,038

558,017

14.4%

3,881,379

22.9%

43.3%

6

160,038

3,495,007

85.7%

24,228

582,245

14.3%

4,077,252

24.0%

45.5%

7

593,304

4,091,561

86.3%

65,501

647,746

13.7%

4,739,307

28.0%

52.8%

8

552,102

4,652,896

86.9%

51,691

699,437

13.1%

5,352,333

31.6%

59.7%

9

488,648

5,150,261

87.5%

37,790

737,227

12.5%

5,887,488

34.7%

65.6%

10

436,718

5,603,359

87.7%

50,435

787,662

12.3%

6,391,021

37.7%

71.3%

11

450,533

6,040,431

88.0%

29,166

816,828

11.9%

6,865,979

40.5%

76.6%

12

305,330

6,356,493

88.4%

20,261

837,089

11.6%

7,193,582

42.4%

80.2%

13










14










15










16










17










18










ED










ED 2016







8,969,226

59.4%



Source — Texas Secretary of State / DemBlogNews.com




Day 12

12 Largest TX Counties EV Turnout Comparison thru Day 12

County

2016 In-Person & Mail Ballots Thru.  Day 12

% of Reg

2016 In-Person Ballots Thru.  Day 12

% of Vote Cast

2016 Mail Ballots Thru.  Day 12

% of Vote Cast

2020 In-Person & Mail Ballots Thru.  Day 12

% of Reg

2020 In-Person Ballots Thru.  Day 12

% of Vote Cast

2020 Mail Ballots Thru.  Day 12

% of Vote Cast

Harris

977.3K

43.7%

882.6K

90.3%

94.7K

9.7%

1.06M

42.6%

906.5K

85.8%

149.4K

14.2%

Dallas

549.6K

42.7%

512.2K

93.2%

37.5K

6.8%

590.5K

42.2%

527.9K

89.4%

62.5K

10.6%

Tarrant

515.2K

47.8%

480.9K

93.3%

34.3K

6.7%

519.4K

42.8%

463.2K

89.2%

56.2K

10.8%

Bexar

471.9K

45.1%

436.7K

92.5%

35.2K

7.5%

496.4K

41.7%

421.8K

85.0%

74.6K

15.0%

Travis

377.7K

52.1%

357.6K

94.7%

20.1K

5.3%

413.1K

48.3%

359.9K

87.1%

53.2K

12.9%

Collin

301.9K

56.2%

289.6K

95.9%

12.4K

4.1%

348.4K

53.7%

325.2K

93.4%

23.1K

6.6%

Denton

240.0K

51.6%

228.9K

95.4%

11.0K

4.6%

294.0K

52.0%

269.7K

91.7%

24.3K

8.3%

El Paso

150.4K

35.1%

142.5K

94.7%

8.0K

5.3%

153.5K

31.4%

130.5K

85.0%

23.0K

15.0%

Fort Bend

213.6K

52.9%

201.7K

94.4%

11.9K

5.6%

240.2K

49.8%

221.9K

92.4%

18.3K

7.6%

Hidalgo

139.8K

41.3%

132.4K

94.7%

7.4K

5.3%

138.1K

35.3%

124.4K

90.1%

13.7K

9.9%

Williamson

162.6K

54.2%

153.3K

94.3%

9.3K

5.7%

198.7K

52.8%

176.9K

89.0%

21.8K

11.0%

Montgomery

156.8K

50.3%

145.3K

92.6%

11.6K

7.4%

172.1K

46.5%

151.9K

88.2%

20.2K

11.8%

Total

4.26M

46.5%

3.96M

93.1%

293.3K

6.9%

4.62M

44.2%

4.08M

88.3%

540.3K

11.7%


2016 Reg Voters: 9,154,375; 2020 Reg Voters: 10,458,103  

Source — Texas Secretary of State / DemBlogNews.com




Voter Registrations - Urban/Suburban vs Rural Counties

The table below shows that for the 2020 election, just over 16.8M Texans are registered to vote, with 10.42M (61.6%) of those registrations in the 12 largest urban, suburban and exurban counties, and 6.49M (38.4%) of the registrations in the 242 rural counties. Actually, subtracting the registrations of the 23 rural blue counties from the rural county count leaves the aggregate registration count of the staunchly red rural counties at only 5.39M.

Nearly all eligible voters in Travis County, home to Austin, are registered to vote this year, according to Travis County Tax Assessor-Collector. Of the county’s more than 850,000 eligible voters, a record 97% of them are registered to vote in the Nov. 3 election. That’s a 17.2% increase since the 2016 presidential election, when there were 725,000 registered voters in Travis County.

Other central Texas counties saw the number of registered voters grow by a quarter since 2016, among the highest increases in the state. Williamson County jumped from 300,000 registered voters to more than 375,000, a more than 25% increase. Hays County saw a 24% increase and Comal County saw a more than 25% bump. Bexar County, home to San Antonio, increased from 1 million to nearly 1.2 million, or a 13.1% increase in registered voters since 2016. Harris County, home to Houston, saw an 11% increase, while Dallas County saw an 8.5% increase.

The rapidly growing population of state's 12 most populous urban, suburban, and exurban counties — Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, El Paso, Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, Montgomery, and Williamson counties — has not only grown increasingly left-leaning over the past 20 years, the voters in those counties represent an increasingly dominant share of the state’s electorate.

For the 2020 general election, voters across the 12 increasingly blue most populous urban/suburban counties (plus the 23 rural blue counties) outnumber the 219 stagnant red rural county voters by a two-to-one margin.The state's 23 rural blue counties include: Webb, Cameron, Hays, Starr, Maverick, Zavala, Nueces, Duval, Willacy, Dimmit, Brooks, Jim Wells, Presidio, Jim Hogg, Val Verde, Zapata, Jefferson, Frio, Kleberg, Brewster, Culberson, Lasalle, and Reeves counties.

Texas Urban/Suburban v. Rural
County Voter Registrations


Texas Voter Registrations 

Yr

TL TX

Delta

% Voted

12 Co

Delta

242 Co

Delta

1976

6.64M


64.8%





1980

7.90M

359K

68.4%





1984

8.20M

1.26M

68.3%





1988

8.44M

302K

66.2%





1992

10.54M

238K

72.9%

4.67M


3.77M


1996

12.37M

2.10M

53.2%

5.93M

1.27M

4.61M

833K

2000

12.37M

1.82M

51.8%

7.15M

1.21M

5.22M

611K

2004

13.10M

733K

56.6%

7.58M

436K

5.52M

297K

2008

13.58M

477K

59.5%

7.93M

353K

5.64M

124K

2012

13.65M

71K

58.6%

8.10M

162K

5.55M

-90K

2016

15.10M

1.45M

59.4%

9.16M

1.1M

5.95M

396K

2018

15.79M

692K

53.0%

9.66M

505K

6.13M

184K

2020

16.96M

1.85M

64.0%

10.46M

1.30M

6.50M

551K

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