There aren’t 20 Senate Republicans with enough integrity to remove the most corrupt president in American history, so we’re going to have to get rid of Trump the old-fashioned way – by electing a Democrat next 3 November. Texas Democrats have the motivation to have Texas add the state’s 38 electoral votes to electing that Democratic president - and more.
Texas has been slowly but steadily trending Democratic for years. Democrats have moved the ball further down the court each election over the last few election cycles as the demographics of Texas’ population slowly but surely evolve to their advantage.
The case for Democrats winning Texas in 2020 begins with this: Texas hasn’t been a red state, so much as it’s been a non-voting state for left-leaning Texans. For more than a generation, left-leaning Texans lack motivation to go to their polling places to vote for Democrats. They believed Republicans had such a lock on Texas politics that Republicans would win, each election, no matter what. So they didn’t “waste their time” by dropping by their local polling place to vote for Democrats on the ballot, who, in there mind’s eye, could never win. But that has been changing with each passing election - and accelerating each passing day since since Donald Trump moved into the White House. Increasingly, left-leaning Texans are seeing in their mind’s eye that it is possible for Democrats to win Texas - and that’s Texas Democrats’ most powerful secret weapon in 2020.
New Texas residents don’t suffer from the old mindset that Republicans have an unbreakable lock on Texas elections. Texas saw a 1.3 percent increase in population between 2017 and 2018. Esri, a mapping and data analytics company, explains that growth to Texas is coming from transplants deciding on Texas for their next chapter in life for themselves and families, and leaving behind their roots in New York, California, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina and Arizona. The result has been the growth of the suburbs in Texas’ major cities, and new residents from states that historically leaned Democratic. In 2018, state elections in Texas were among the most competitive in years for Texas Democrats.
In 2018, motivated by Trump, a newly mobilized Democratic coalition of young people, suburban women, college educated men, and minorities demonstrated their growing power by turning out statewide to vote Beto O’Rourke in record numbers. At the top of the ballot, the Democratic Party’s nominee for Texas’ U.S. Senate seat, O’Rourke, came within 2.6 points of defeating incumbent Ted Cruz. Beto further closed the gap of Republican dominance in Texas after Barack Obama lost to Mitt Romney by sixteen percentage points in 2012 and Clinton narrowed the gap to just nine points in 2016. Furthermore, two of Texas’ Republican-held congressional districts were flipped to Democratic control in 2018, five others came close to flipping, and two state Senate seats flipped from Republican to Democratic control.
A million first-time voters turned out in November 2018 with more than two thirds of them registering after the 2016 presidential election, and three quarters were under the age of fifty. Perhaps more consequential in the long run: Democrats made big gains in almost all of the state’s major cities and surrounding suburban counties.
November national polling shows 65 percent of Republicans aren't "proud" of Trump and just 58% say they are "excited" about him. That softness in support for Trump is confirmed in a December national poll from Civiqs that again asks voters about their support for Trump. Civiqs laid out six scenarios for respondents: I support President Trump, and there's almost nothing that could change that; I support President Trump right now, but I'm open to changing my mind if things change later; I neither support nor oppose President Trump; I oppose President Trump right now, but I'm open to changing my mind if things change later; I oppose President Trump, and there's almost nothing that could change that; unsure. Here's the results:
- Support Trump, won't change: 30%
- Support Trump, could change later: 14%
- Neither support nor oppose Trump: 3%
- Oppose Trump, could change later: 5%
- Oppose Trump, won't change: 48%
- Unsure: 0%
National polls throughout 2019 have repeatedly confirmed hardened voter opposition to Trump. Only about a third of voters are firmly committed to his reelection. Those national numbers are pretty low for an incumbent, and as businesses from around the nation continue to relocate their employees to Texas’ metro area suburbs in large numbers, those employees move their political views with them. Trump remains more unpopular than popular with most Texans. More Texas voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance (49 percent) than approve (43 percent), according to a recent poll conducted by the University of Texas at Tyler. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump’s popularity in Texas remains far below what it should be given the state’s significant Republican lean.
For the 2020 election cycle, Democrats across Texas are mounting drives to push those energized 2018 suburban voters back to the polls while also recruiting more new voters. In a sharp break with past strategy, Texas Democrats are not focused on getting a lot of older, white voters, who have been voting Republican, to switch their allegiance back to Democrats. Instead, the party is focused on registering 2.6 million people across Texas, county by county, identified as likely left-leaning voters.
“If Texas turns back to a Democratic state, which it used to be, then we’ll never elect another Republican [president] in my lifetime,” Texas’ Republican U.S. Senator John Cornyn said earlier this year. Texas’ electoral college votes has been a presidential firewall for Republicans since Ronald Reagan won the state in 1980.
Both Democrats and Republicans have a case to make for why they’ll win Texas in 2020. And it’s not just about winning the White House. Democrats, almost too many running for some individual offices, have lined up to challenge Republicans up and down the ballot in the metro corridors of Texas, and statewide. The fact is, the data shows Texas is the biggest battleground state in the nation in 2020.
U.S. Senate
Democrats are largely on offense in Senate races in 2020. They need a net gain of four seats to win the majority, or three if they win the White House since the vice president would be the tie-breaking vote. Most of the other senators in vulnerable positions are Republicans, two of whom are running in states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 — Cory Gardner of Colorado and Susan Collins of Maine.
Writing for the Cook Political Report, analyst Jennifer Duffy explains how the politics of impeachment could hurt vulnerable incumbents such as Sens. Cory Gardner (R-CO), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Martha McSally (R-AZ), and perhaps some of the other 22 Senators defending their Senate seats in 2020.
These senators, she argues, are in trouble if they vote to convict and doomed if they vote to acquit. Vote to convict and Republicans won’t support you — vote to acquit, and you may lose the suburban women that you need to win these specific states.A crowded field of Democratic contenders are vying to take on Texas’ incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn, whose war chest was close to $10.8 million on Sept. 30. Despite Cornyn’s strong fundraising, Democrats think they can make the Texas Senate race competitive, particularly after former Rep. Beto O’Rourke came within 3 points of defeating GOP Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018. Some operatives argue that Cornyn will be a more difficult opponent than Cruz, whose national profile energized Democrats and turned off some Republicans.
Added to this, writes Duffy, Democrats in these states have been heavily outspending their Republican opponents.
“Democrats have outspent Republicans almost two to one and nearly all that money has been on ads criticizing Collins,” she writes. “Democrats have also outspent Republicans in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa and Kentucky.”
Additionally, Duffy argues that Democrats really only have two truly vulnerable members: Sens. Doug Jones (D-AL) and Gary Peters (D-MI), which means the GOP will be playing much more defense next year than it did in 2018.
“It appears that there will be at least five GOP-held seats in play, with a chance that Democrats could add one or two more,” she concludes. “This puts Democrats in a position to win the majority, even if they lose Alabama and/or Michigan.”
Even the likes of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who has a favorability rating of only 38 percent of that state’s voters, may now be at risk of losing to Jaime Harrison, a popular South Carolina Democrat challenging Graham in the 2020 election. Republican women in South Carolina are so turned off by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) that they’re taking their support to his Democratic opponent, Jaime Harrison.
While Democrats haven’t yet rallied behind any of this cycle’s U.S. Senator candidates, Texas Democrats are hoping to flip a up to 22 of GOP-held Texas State House seats, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted six congressional districts in Texas, so their combined spending and organizing could turn the U.S. Senate race further up the ballot in favor of the Democratic nominee.
Twelve Democrats will challenge each other in Texas’ Super Tuesday Democratic primary election to see who will challenge John Cornyn for his U.S. Senate seat in the general election. Two of those ten Democrats will most likely face off in a runoff election in May. Cornyn must also fight off several Republican opponents in the GOP primary, including Dallas businessman Mark Yancey. Cornyn might also find himself in a May runoff election.
The five major Democratic candidates for The state’s U.S. Senate seat are former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell of Houston, Houston council member Amanda Edwards, former Air Force helicopter pilot MJ Hegar of Round Rock, activist Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez of Austin and state Sen. Royce West of Dallas.
Bell, 60, served one term in Congress before losing his seat in 2004 amid a redistricting battle. The progressive Democrat was the party’s 2006 nominee for governor against Rick Perry.
Edwards, a 37-year-old Houston lawyer, is in her first term as an at-large council member representing more than 2.3 million people. She’s considered a rising star in the Democratic Party but must build her name recognition outside of Houston.
Hegar, 43, narrowly lost a 2018 congressional race to incumbent Republican Rep. John Carter of Round Rock. She opted to run for Senate instead of a rematch against Carter, describing herself as the fighter Democrats needed to beat Cornyn. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is endorsing MJ Hegar in the primary.
Tzintzún Ramirez, 37, is a Chicana/Mexican American organizer who co-founded the Workers Defense Project and founded the Hispanic advocacy group called Jolt. She’s also worked to mobilize immigrant communities and hopes to use her organizational skills to get more people of color and younger voters to the polls.
West, 67, has served in the Texas Senate since 1993, where his focus has been on improving public education and criminal justice reform. The Dallas lawyer was instrumental in the University of North Texas putting a campus in southern Dallas, as well as a law school downtown. He’s considered one of the most influential politicians in North Texas.
The other seven U.S. Senate candidates in the Democratic Primary are activist Sema Hernandez of Pasadena, who got 24% of the vote in the 2018 Senate primary O’Rourke won, Adrian Ocegueda of Flower Mound - private equity, Michael Cooper, Jack Danial Foster - teacher, Annie “Mama” Garcia - attorney, Victor Hugo Harris, and D.R. Hunter.
U.S. Congress
Of the 36 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, Democrats currently hold 13 seats and Republicans hold 23 seats. According to filing information on the Texas Secretary of State website, at least one Democratic candidate filed for a primary in all 36 districts. For the 2018 midterm election, Democrats filed to run in every Texas congressional district for the first time in 25 years. Again, for the 2020 election, at least one Democrat has file to run each of Texas’ 36 congressional districts.
Six to as many as nine of Texas’ Republican-held seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are potentially in play. If all nine Republican districts should flip to Democrats, Texas would go from a 23-13 Republican/Democrat delegation to a delegation of 22 Democrats and 14 Republicans.
The national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is putting organizers on the ground in Texas, with the express aim of defending two seats the Democrats picked up in Houston and Dallas in 2018, and to target six other districts held by Republicans. And if the 2018 congressional races are any indication, the parties will spend more than $50 million on voter drives and TV advertising in these districts.
When Trump was sworn in, Republicans held the House majority with 241 members. Since then, 101 of those members either retired, ran for another office, took up jobs in the Trump administration, or lost reelection — a massive 42% drop, according to an NBC News analysis. Republican turnover in the Texas congressional delegation has been extraordinary during Pres. Trump’s first term in the White House. With a half-dozen more Texas Republicans retiring from Congress during the last half of Trump’s term, Texas will be one of the nation’s battleground states for Democrats to hold and strengthen their control of the U.S. House in 2020.
After Democrats flipped two districts in the 2018 midterm elections, came very close to flipping five more districts, a half-dozen senior congressional Republicans decided not to seek reelection in 2020. That mass departure “Texodus” of Republicans, as Democrats have dubbed it, reflects both the long odds of some incumbent Republicans again winning their districts, and the probably congressional Republicans will slip even further into the minority in 2020 after they lost majority control in the 2018 midterm elections.
The list of those retiring include:
- U.S. Rep. Will Hurd of San Antonio (TX-23) who won by a mere 926 votes against his Democratic challenger Gina Ortiz Jones in the 2018 midterm elections. Jones is running again, and this time, we fully expect her to flip her congressional district.
- U.S. Rep. Kenny Marchant of Coppell (TX-24) who is leaving open another Texas House seat that’s heavily targeted by Democrats in 2020. Marchant won reelection in 2018 by less than four percentage points.
- U.S. Rep. Mike Conaway of Midland (TX-11) who said that being in the minority in the House is a "frustrating experience." Seems Republicans cannot cope with their loss of power and the results of the 2018 midterms.
- U.S. Rep. Pete Olson of Sugar Land (TX-22) who narrowly won his reelection last year against his Democratic challenger Sri Kulkarni. Kulkarni is running again, and Olson’s retirement sets up what will likely be one of the most competitive House races in the country.
- U.S. Rep. Bill Flores of Waco (TX-17) a five term Republican representative, who announced his retirement on Sept. 4. Flores joined the growing list of Texas Republicans who have decided to call it quits instead of fight for another term.
- U.S. Rep. Mac Thornberry of Clarendon (TX-13) who announced his retirement on Sept. 30. Thornberry has held his position in Congress for the last 25 years, but said in a statement that "the time has come for a change." Republicans have obviously given up on any former notions they might have had about taking back the House in 2020.
- The 22nd, from Houston southwest, where Pete Olson is retiring;
- The 23rd, which stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, and where incumbent Will Hurd is retiring;
- And the 24th, Dallas north, where Kenny Marchant is retiring.
- The 10th, which stretches from Austin to the outskirt of Houston, represented by Michael McCaul;
- The 21st, from Austin to San Antonio and west for six counties, held by freshman Republican Chip Roy;
- And the 31st, represented for years by Republican John Carter.
- The 2nd, wrapping around northern and western Houston, held by first-termer Dan Crenshaw (52.8% in 2018);
- The 3rd, north of Dallas, represented by former Texas House and Senate veteran Van Taylor (54.2% in 2018);
- And the 25th, which stretches from south of Austin to Fort Worth, represented by Roger Williams (53.5 percent in 2018).
District 1 - Watchable: Hank Gilbert, a Tyler Democrat and longtime rancher and small businessman, will challenge U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert for the 1st Congressional District seat the Republican first won in 2004. Gilbert, who was the Democratic nominee for Texas agriculture commissioner in 2010, is an experienced campaigner who may be able to use that experience to gain traction against Gohmert. Gilbert has no primary opponent and so will face Gohmert in the November 2020 general election. Gohmert has one opponent in the GOP primary.The remaining districts will most likely remain in the hands of the incumbent party. A few are worth watching to see how the political dynamics unfold.
District 2 - Flippable: Incumbent Republican Daniel Crenshaw, was first elected to represent Texas' 2nd Congressional District in 2018, defeating his Democratic opponent Todd Litton 52.8-45.6 percent. The district is located in the Houston area that includes parts of Houston and Kingwood. Three Democrats are in the primary to win the party’s nomination: Elisa Cardnell; Sima Ladjevardian; and Travis Olsen. Sima Ladjevardian is a prominent political advisor, attorney, philanthropist, mother of two, breast cancer survivor, and community leader. Ladjevardian was a prominent fundraiser for Hillary Clinton and a senior advisor to Beto O’Rourke. She founded Big Hearted Texas, which focuses on engaging and mobilizing the greater Harris County community and taking action on issues like human trafficking.
District 3 - Flippable: Incumbent Republican Van Taylor was first elected to represent Texas' 3rd Congressional District in 2018, defeating his Democratic opponent Lorie Burch by 54.2-44.2 percent. The district is located within the southwestern three-quarters of Collin County. Three Democrats are in the primary to win the party’s nomination: Tanner Do; Sean McCaffity; and Lulu Seikaly. Included in the most densely populated part of TX-03 are Texas State House Districts 66 and 67. Both of these districts are held by Republicans who won only very slim victories against their Democratic opponents in 2018. Like TX-03, HD66 and HD67 are targeted as flippable by Texas Democrats. In 2016, Hillary Clinton significantly out performed past presidential nominees in the precincts of those precincts, winning many precincts for the first time, and losing the rest by from a few votes to less than 100 votes. The Democratic nominees from these three key districts combining forces with statewide and other local Democratic candidates will have the “critical mass” force to flip all three districts in 2020.
District 5 - Watchable: Former Palestine Mayor Dr. Carolyn Salter is running for U.S. representative of the Fifth District. The congressional district, now represented by first-term Republican Lance Gooden of Terrell, runs south and east of Dallas, including Anderson, Cherokee, Henderson, Kaufman, and Wood Counties. Salter believes she can run a competitive race in a traditionally Republican district, citing changing demographics of increasing shares of young people and political independents in the Fifth District. Salter says voters in her district are concerned about affordable healthcare, funding rural hospitals to keep them open, creating higher-paying jobs, promoting rural economic development, and bolstering rural internet broadband, which their Republican representative opposes. Salter is a Doctor at Sycamore Medical Clinic with her husband, Michael Gorby, also a medical doctor.
District 10 - Flippable: This Austin area held by incumbent Republican Michael T. McCaul (R) since 2005 could be flipped by one of three Democrats running in the primary: Dr. Pritesh Gandhi, Shannon Hutcheson, and Mike Siegel.
District 21 - Flippable:
Democrats are eager to topple freshman GOP Rep. Chip Roy of Austin, a former chief of staff to Sen. Ted Cruz, in a district that runs from the state capital to San Antonio. The front-runner in that primary is Wendy Davis, a former state senator from Fort Worth who lost the 2014 governor’s race to incumbent Greg Abbott. Davis will face Jennie Lou Leeder in the Democratic primary. Davis is favored to win the primary. As the party’s nominee for the general election, Davis will likely attract national attention on the race to unseat freshman Rep. Chip Roy.
District 22 - Flippable: This open suburban house seat has attracted 14 Republicans who filed for this district, including Pierce Bush. Bush is the most recent member of the Bush dynasty to jump into Texas politics to replace retiring GOP Rep. Pete Olson.
Bush is the CEO of Big Brothers Big Sisters Lone Star, and grandson of the late President George H.W. Bush. His father, Neil Bush, is brother to former President George W. Bush of Dallas. His first cousin, George P. Bush – son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush – is the Texas land commissioner.
Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni fell just 5 percentage points short of defeating Olson in the 2018 midterm election. Kulkarni is favored to win the Democratic nomination against primary opponents Nyanza Davis Moore, Derrick Reed, Derrick A. Reed, Chris Fernandez, and Carmine Petricco.
District 23 - Flippable: One of the most competitive districts in the country, this vast West Texas border district came open when three-term Rep. Will Hurd, decided to not run for another term. Hurd won a slim hard fought victory over Democrat and Iraq war veteran Gina Ortiz Jones by just 689 votes in the 2018 midterm election. Jones is the favorite of five Democrats seeking the seat. Jones faces Rosalinda "Rosey" Ramos Abuabara, Jaime Escuder, Efrain V. Valdez, and Ricardo Madrid in the Democratic Primary.
District 24 - Flippable: In this Dallas-area district, Rep. Kenny Marchant, R-Coppell, is retiring after eight terms and a slim hard fought win last year, when he survived a challenge from Democrat Jan McDowell by just 3 points.
Five Republicans are running for this open seat, including former Irving mayor Beth Van Duyne, who served more than two years as regional administrator of the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development. She resigned from that post in August to run for Congress.
McDowell faces a half-dozen other Democrats in the primary, including Kim Olson, the party’s 2018 nominee for state agriculture commissioner and a retired Air Force colonel; Candace Valenzuela, a Carrollton-Farmers Branch school board member; Dr. John Biggan; Richard Fleming; Crystal Fletcher; and Sam Vega.
District 25 - Flippable: Incumbent Roger Williams, a Republican, won another term in 2018, beating his Democratic opponent Julie Oliver, a Democrat 53.5 to 44.8 percent. Oliver is running against Heidi Sloan in the 2020 Democratic primary for the chance to face Williams again in the 2020 general election. Williams has represented the district since 2013.
District 28 - Watchable: In Laredo, incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar, the Democrat with the most pro-Republican voting record in the House, faces a challenge from the left in the primary. Activist Jessica Cisneros is backed by progressives, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a presidential candidate, and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
District 31 - Flippable: Incumbent Republican John Carter won his ninth term in Congress in 2018 against his Democratic opponent Mary Jennings "MJ" Hegar 50.6-47.6 percent. Carter faces four challengers in the GOP primary. Nine Democrats have files for the Democratic primary: Michael Grimes; Eric Hanke; Donna Imam; Dan Janjigian; Omar Kadir; Roderick Kutch; Jeremiah Landin; Christine Mann; and Tammy Young.
District 11 - Watchable: A West Texas vacancy in a safely Republican seat. Eleven Republicans are vying to replace former Agriculture Chairman Mike Conaway, R-Midland.Here is the list of Democratic and Republican primary candidates who have filed to be on their respective party's ballots for Texas' Congressional Districts.
District 13 - Watchable: In the Texas Panhandle, where former House Armed Services Chairman Mac Thornberry, R-Clarendon, is retiring after 13 terms, former White House physician Ronny Jackson filed Monday for one of the most reliably Republican seats in the country.
Chris Ekstrom, a businessman who has vowed to be a “relentless ally of President Trump” and “the most conservative member of Congress,” sarcastically welcomed Jackson to the fray by noting that President Barack Obama had called him a “‘dedicated and valuable member’ of his team during his failed administration,” and one who had his “complete trust.”
Jackson is one of 14 Republicans chasing that nomination. He recently retired from the Navy as a rear admiral and began serving as White House physician in 2006 under George W. Bush. He continued in that role through the Obama administration and until his resignation last year after Trump picked him to run the Department of Veterans Affairs.
Jackson pulled out amid allegations that he had been abusive to coworkers as head of the White House medical unit, was not careful enough with prescriptions, and occasionally drank on duty — all of which he denied.
District 17 - Watchable: After losing his TX-32 district to Colin Allred in 2018, Pete Sessions is trying to make a comeback in this safe GOP seat being vacated by Rep. Bill Flores, R-Bryan. Eleven Republicans are in the GOP primary for this open seat. The district stretches to Waco, Sessions’ childhood home, and where his father served as a federal judge before his tenure as FBI director. Flores was unhappy about Sessions’ move.
“He lived there half a century ago,” Flores said in a recent interview. “Look at the definition of a carpetbagger and make your own determination. … We've got a lot of really good emerging leaders in District 17. And they deserve a chance to be the next congressman or congresswoman from this district before Pete does. This district is not Dallas.”District 32 - Watchable: Republicans are hoping to reclaim the Dallas seat captured last year by freshman Democrat Rep. Colin Allred. The former pro football player and attorney ousted 11-term congressman Pete Sessions, a longtime member of the House GOP leadership team. Dallas businesswoman Genevieve Collins faces former Navy SEAL Floyd McLendon Jr. and three others in the GOP primary. Collins has raised nearly a half-million dollars, a solid sum though just a third of the incumbent’s war chest.
Texas Congressional Candidates (scrolling table)
| District | --------------------- Name--------------------- | Party | Incumbent | Flippable |
| District | ---------------------Name--------------------- | Party | Incumbent | Flippable |
| 1 | Louie Gohmert | R | Y | |
| 1 | Johnathan Kyle Davidson | R | N | |
| 1 | Hank Gilbert | D | N | |
| 2 | Dan Crenshaw | R | Y | Flippable |
| 2 | Elisa Cardnell | D | N | Flippable |
| 2 | Sima Ladjevardian | D | N | Flippable |
| 2 | Travis Olsen | D | N | Flippable |
| 3 | Nicholas Taylor | R | Y | Flippable |
| 3 | Lulu Seikaly | D | N | Flippable |
| 3 | Sean Mccaffity | D | N | Flippable |
| 3 | Tanner Do | D | N | Flippable |
| 4 | John Ratcliffe | R | Y | |
| 4 | Russell Foster | D | N | |
| 5 | Lance Gooden | R | Y | |
| 5 | Don Hill | R | N | |
| 5 | Carolyn Salter | D | N | |
| 6 | Ron Wright | R | Y | |
| 6 | Stephen Daniel | D | N | |
| 7 | Lizzie Fletcher | D | Y | |
| 7 | Cindy Siegel | R | N | |
| 7 | Jim Noteware | R | N | |
| 7 | Kyle Preston | R | N | |
| 7 | Laique Rehman | R | N | |
| 7 | Maria Espinoza | R | N | |
| 7 | Wesley Hunt | R | N | |
| 8 | Kevin Brady | R | Y | |
| 8 | Kirk Osborn | R | N | |
| 8 | Melissa Esparza-Mathis | R | N | |
| 8 | Elizabeth Hernandez | D | N | |
| 8 | Laura Jones | D | N | |
| 9 | Al Green | D | Y | |
| 9 | Al Austin | R | N | |
| 9 | Johnny Teague | R | N | |
| 9 | Jon Menefee | R | N | |
| 9 | Julian A. Martinez | R | N | |
| 9 | Melissa Wilson-Williams | D | N | |
| 10 | Michael Mccaul | R | Y | Flippable |
| 10 | Mike Siegel | D | N | Flippable |
| 10 | Pritesh Gandhi | D | N | Flippable |
| 10 | Shannon Hutcheson | D | N | Flippable |
| 11 | August Pfluger | R | N | |
| 11 | Brandon Batch | R | N | |
| 11 | Casey Gray | R | N | |
| 11 | Cynthia J. Breyman | R | N | |
| 11 | Gene Barber | R | N | |
| 11 | J.D. Faircloth | R | N | |
| 11 | J.Ross Lacy | R | N | |
| 11 | Jamie Berryhill | R | N | |
| 11 | Ned Luscombe | R | N | |
| 11 | Robert Tucker | R | N | |
| 11 | Wesley W. Virdell | R | N | |
| 11 | Jon Mark Hogg | D | N | |
| 12 | Kay Granger | R | Y | |
| 12 | Chris Putnam | R | N | |
| 12 | Danny Anderson | D | N | |
| 12 | Lisa Welch | D | N | |
| 13 | Asusena Reséndiz | R | N | |
| 13 | Catherine "I Swear" Carr | R | N | |
| 13 | Chris Ekstrom | R | N | |
| 13 | Diane Knowlton | R | N | |
| 13 | Elaine Hays | R | N | |
| 13 | Jamie Culley | R | N | |
| 13 | Jason Foglesong | R | N | |
| 13 | Josh Winegarner | R | N | |
| 13 | Lee Harvey | R | N | |
| 13 | Mark Neese | R | N | |
| 13 | Matt Mcarthur | R | N | |
| 13 | Monique Worthy | R | N | |
| 13 | Richard Herman | R | N | |
| 13 | Ronny Jackson | R | N | |
| 13 | Vance Snider Ii | R | N | |
| 13 | Greg Sagan | D | N | |
| 13 | Gus Trujillo | D | N | |
| 13 | Timothy W. Gassaway | D | N | |
| 14 | Randy Weber | R | Y | |
| 14 | Joshua Foxworth | R | N | |
| 14 | Adrienne Bell | D | N | |
| 14 | Eddie Fisher | D | N | |
| 14 | Mikal Williams | D | N | |
| 14 | Robert "Puga" Thomas | D | N | |
| 14 | Sanjanetta Barnes | D | N | |
| 15 | Vicente Gonzalez | D | Y | |
| 15 | Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez | R | N | |
| 15 | Ryan Krause | R | N | |
| 15 | Tim Westley | R | N | |
| 16 | Veronica Escobar | D | Y | |
| 16 | Anthony Aguero | R | N | |
| 16 | Blanca Ortiz Trout | R | N | |
| 16 | Irene Armendariz-Jackson | R | N | |
| 16 | Jaime Arriola Jr | R | N | |
| 16 | Patrick Cigarruista | R | N | |
| 16 | Sam Williams | R | N | |
| 17 | Ahmad Adnan | R | N | |
| 17 | David Saucedo | R | N | |
| 17 | Elianor Vessali | R | N | |
| 17 | George W. Hindman | R | N | |
| 17 | Jeff Oppenheim | R | N | |
| 17 | Kristen Alamo Rowin | R | N | |
| 17 | Laurie Godfrey Mcreynolds | R | N | |
| 17 | Pete Sessions | R | N | |
| 17 | Renée Swann | R | N | |
| 17 | Scott Bland | R | N | |
| 17 | Todd Kent | R | N | |
| 17 | Trent Sutton | R | N | |
| 17 | David Anthony Jaramillo | D | N | |
| 17 | Richard Kennedy | D | N | |
| 17 | William Foster Iii | D | N | |
| 18 | Sheila Jackson Lee | D | Y | |
| 18 | Ava Reynero Pate | R | N | |
| 18 | Nathan J. Milliron | R | N | |
| 18 | Nellie Heiksell | R | N | |
| 18 | Robert M. Cadena | R | N | |
| 18 | T.C. Manning | R | N | |
| 18 | Wendell Champion | R | N | |
| 18 | Bimal Patel | D | N | |
| 18 | Donovan Boson | D | N | |
| 18 | Jerry Ford Sr | D | N | |
| 18 | Marc Flores | D | N | |
| 18 | Marc Flores | D | N | |
| 18 | Michael Allen | D | N | |
| 18 | Stevens Orozco | D | N | |
| 19 | Jodey C. Arrington | R | Y | |
| 19 | Vance W. Boyd | R | N | |
| 19 | Tom Watson | D | N | |
| 20 | Joaquin Castro | D | Y | |
| 20 | Anita Kegley | R | N | |
| 20 | Dominick Dina | R | N | |
| 20 | Gary Allen | R | N | |
| 20 | Mauro Garza | R | N | |
| 20 | Tammy K. Orta | R | N | |
| 20 | Justin Lecea | D | N | |
| 20 | Rob Hostetler | D | N | |
| 21 | Chip Roy | R | Y | Flippable |
| 21 | Jennie Lou Leeder | D | N | Flippable |
| 21 | Wendy R. Davis | D | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Aaron Hermes | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Bangar Reddy | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Dan Mathews | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Diana Miller | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Douglas Haggard | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Greg Hill | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Joe Walz | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Jon Camarillo | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Kathaleen Wall | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Matt Hinton | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Pierce Bush | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Shandon Phan | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Troy Nehls | R | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Carmine Petricco Iii | D | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Chris Fernandez | D | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Derrick A. Reed | D | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Nyanza Davis Moore | D | N | Flippable |
| 22 | Sri Preston Kulkarni | D | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Alia Ureste | R | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Alma Arredondo-Lynch | R | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Ben Van Winkle | R | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Cecil B. "Burt" Jones | R | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Darwin Boedeker | R | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Jeff Mcfarlin | R | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Raul Reyes | R | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Sharon Breckenridge Thomas | R | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Tony Gonzales | R | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Efrain V Valdez | D | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Gina Ortiz Jones | D | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Jaime Escuder | D | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Ricardo R. Madrid | D | N | Flippable |
| 23 | Rosalinda "Rosey" Ramos Abuabara | D | N | Flippable |
| 24 | Beth Van Duyne | R | N | Flippable |
| 24 | David Fegan | R | N | Flippable |
| 24 | Desi Maes | R | N | Flippable |
| 24 | Jeron Liverman | R | N | Flippable |
| 24 | Sunny Chaparala | R | N | Flippable |
| 24 | Candace Valenzuela | D | N | Flippable |
| 24 | Crystal Fletcher | D | N | Flippable |
| 24 | Jan Mcdowell | D | N | Flippable |
| 24 | John Biggan | D | N | Flippable |
| 24 | Kim Olson | D | N | Flippable |
| 24 | Richard Fleming | D | N | Flippable |
| 24 | Sam Vega | D | N | Flippable |
| 25 | Roger Williams | R | Y | Flippable |
| 25 | Keith Neuendorff | R | N | Flippable |
| 25 | Heidi Sloan | D | N | Flippable |
| 25 | Julie Oliver | D | N | Flippable |
| 26 | Michael C. Burgess | R | Y | |
| 26 | Jack Wyman | R | N | |
| 26 | Jason Mrochek | R | N | |
| 26 | Michael Armstrong | R | N | |
| 26 | Carol H. Iannuzzi | D | N | |
| 26 | Mat Pruneda | D | N | |
| 26 | Neil Durrance | D | N | |
| 27 | Michael Cloud | R | Y | |
| 27 | Charlie Jackson | D | N | |
| 27 | Ricardo "Rick" De La Fuente | D | N | |
| 28 | Sandra Whitten | R | N | |
| 28 | Henry Cuellar | D | N | |
| 28 | Jessica Cisneros | D | N | |
| 29 | Sylvia Garcia | D | Y | |
| 29 | Jaimy Z. Blanco | R | N | |
| 29 | Robert Schafranek | R | N | |
| 30 | Eddie Bernice Johnson | D | Y | |
| 30 | Tre Pennie | R | N | |
| 30 | Barbara Mallory Caraway | D | N | |
| 30 | Hasani Burton | D | N | |
| 30 | Shenita "Shae" Cleveland | D | N | |
| 31 | John Carter | R | Y | Flippable |
| 31 | Abhiram Garapati | R | N | Flippable |
| 31 | Christopher Wall | R | N | Flippable |
| 31 | Mike Williams | R | N | Flippable |
| 31 | Christine Eady Mann | D | N | Flippable |
| 31 | Dan Janjigian | D | N | Flippable |
| 31 | Donna Imam | D | N | Flippable |
| 31 | Eric Hanke | D | N | Flippable |
| 31 | Michael Edward Grimes | D | N | Flippable |
| 31 | Tammy Young | D | N | Flippable |
| 32 | Floyd Mclendon | R | N | |
| 32 | Genevieve Collins | R | N | |
| 32 | Jeff Tokar | R | N | |
| 32 | Jon Hollis | R | N | |
| 32 | Mark Sackett | R | N | |
| 32 | Colin Allred | D | N | |
| 33 | Fabian Vasquez | R | N | |
| 33 | Marc Veasey | D | N | |
| 33 | Sean Paul Segura | D | N | |
| 34 | Rey Gonzalez | R | N | |
| 34 | Rod Lingsch | R | N | |
| 34 | Diego Zavala | D | N | |
| 34 | Filemon B. Vela | D | N | |
| 34 | Osbert Rodriguez Haro Iii | D | N | |
| 35 | Lloyd Doggett | D | Y | |
| 35 | "Guillermo" William Hayward | R | N | |
| 35 | Jennifer Garcia Sharon | R | N | |
| 35 | Nick Moutos | R | N | |
| 35 | Rafael Alcoser Iii | D | N | |
| 36 | Brian Babin | R | Y | |
| 36 | Rj Boatman | R | N | |
| 36 | Rashad Lewis | D | N |
Texas Legislature
In the Texas House, both parties are raising millions of dollars to fight for control of the house in 2020 after Democrats made their 12-seat pick-up in the 2018 election. Currently the balance in the TX State House is 83R-67D, meaning that Democrats need a net gain of 9 seats to gain outright majority control of the house for the first time since 2001.
Gov. Greg Abbott said he’s going to help Republican House hopefuls, along with new PACs that are emerging, because of the vacuum created by last summer’s scandal that forced Angleton GOP Speaker Dennis Bonnen to announce he’ll retire by January 2021. Southlake Rep. Gio Capriglione is part of a Republican PAC called Lead Texas Forward that aims to raise $5 million for GOP candidates in order to fill a void left by the sidelined Bonnen.
The Dallas Morning News reports Capriglione saying that he could see the battle for the Texas House costing as much as $75 million, which increases the need for the fundraising. “We are planning every single day to go and raise that money. The reality is it’s a different deal than it was two years ago,” he said. “That election from two years ago told us that we needed to start earlier, that we can’t just take any of this for granted.”
One hundred and thirty-seven incumbents opted to seek re-election, including 75 Republicans and 62 Democrats. This means there are 13 open seats, of which five were last held by Democrats and eight by Republicans. For the rest of the 137 incumbents seeking re-election, 42 are not facing opponents in the primary and the general election, including 21 Democrats and 21 Republicans. That leaves 95 incumbents seeking re-election who are contested. Each of the 10 most vulnerable Democrats and 10 most vulnerable Republicans in the Texas House are being challenged in the general election.
Texas Democrats are eyeing 22 Texas House seats that they hope to flip. In the 2018 midterm election, Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic Party’s nominee for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s Senate seat, beat Cruz or lost by a slim single-digit margin in 22 Texas state house districts. Of the 22 Republican-held districts Beto O'Rourke won or came within single digits of winning, here are the 17 districts where the incumbent Republican won against his Democratic oponent by single digits. In those 17 districts there are nine where both O’Rourke won and the incumbent Republican won by single digits. Beto actually won 76 house districts to Cruz's 74 districts, which is every district currently held Democrats, and several Republican-held seats as well.
| District# | Incumbent Republican | Region | Margin of 2018 R victory | Beto win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rick Miller (open) | Sugar Land | 5% | Beto |
| 28 | Special (Jan 2020) | Richmond | 9.6% | |
| 32 | Todd Hunter (2009) | Corpus Christi | % | |
| 54 | Brad Buckley (2019) | Killeen | 7.6% | |
| 64 | Lynn Stucky (2017) | Denton | 8.3% | Beto |
| 66 | Matt Shaheen (2015) | Plano | 0.6% | Beto |
| 67 | Jeff Leach (2013) | Plano | 2.3% | Beto |
| 92 | Jonathan Stickland (open) | Bedford | 2.4% | |
| 93 | Matt Krause (2013) | Fort Worth | 7.7% | |
| 94 | Tony Tinderholt (2015) | Arlington | 8.6% | |
| 96 | Bill Zedler (open) | Arlington | 3.7% | |
| 97 | Craig Goldman (2013) | Fort Worth | 8.3% | |
| 108 | Morgan Meyer (2015) | Dallas | 0.3% | Beto |
| 112 | Angie Chen Button (2009) | Richardson | 2.1% | Beto |
| 121 | Steve Allison (2019) | San Antonio | 8.4% | Beto |
| 126 | Sam Harless (2019) | Spring | 9.7% | |
| 134 | Sarah Davis (2011) | West University Place | 6.3% | Beto |
| 138 | Dwayne Bohac (open) | Houston | 0.1% | Beto |
Even as GOP PACs gear up to fill their Texas campaign war chests with money, a number of state House Republicans recognize Democrats have a better than even change to win the nine net seats they need to win control the state house. Deciding it’s no longer worth the fight, to likely end up occupying a seat in a House controlled by Democrats, these Texas House Republicans have also announced their plans to either retire or resign:
- HD-28 Rep. John Zerwas, R-Richmond, who announced that he will be resigning. His resignation is effective Sept. 30 and there will be a special election for his seat.
- HD-92 Rep. Jonathan Stickland, R-Bedford, who announced that he will not be seeking reelection. Stickland is one of the worst lawmakers to ever step foot in the Texas Capitol. Not only did he top Texas Monthly’s list of worst legislators twice, but this year, the publication created a brand new category just for him: “Cockroach.”
- HD-138 Rep. Dwayne Bohac, R-Houston, who announced he would not be seeking reelection on Sept. 25. Bohac won his reelection in 2018 by just 47 votes against his Democratic challenger. His retirement gives progressives the perfect opportunity to pickup his seat in the upcoming election.
- HD-25 Speaker of the House Dennis Bonnen, R-Angleton, who announced he would not be seeking reelection on Oct. 22 after causing one of the biggest scandals to hit the Texas legislature in years that damaged and embarrassed Texas Republicans. Bonnen's announcement came just one week after a recording of his secret meeting with far-right extremist Michael Quinn Sullivan was released. In addition to the usual homophobic comments and backdoor dealings typical of Texas Republicans, the audio also revealed the Republican Speaker’s hypocritical, and potentially illegal, bribery attempt with Empower Texans.
- HD-26 Rep. Rick Miller, R-Sugarland, who dropped his reelection plans on Dec. 3 after facing backlash for his racist remarks about his opponents. In 2018, Miller won re-election by fewer than 5 percentage points. His seat is ripe for the picking and progressives are ready to flip it in 2020.
- HD-60 Rep. Mike Lang, R-Granbury, who opted against reelection for a second time on Dec. 9 after it become clear he would face a primary challenge from three other Republicans. Lang instead filed to run for Hood County commissioner. Lang initially announced in September that he would not seek reelection and instead run for county commissioner, but then reversed that decision days later.
- HD-96 Rep. Bill Zedler, R-Arlington, who announced he would not be seeking reelection on Dec. 10, one day after filing to run. Zedler won reelection in 2018 by less than 4 percentage points. In 2020, progressives will be working hard to flip his district.
- HD 26 – This Fort Bend County district (just southwest of Houston) looks to be heavily trending blue, going from 27 point Romney win to Trump winning it by just under 5 points. In 2018, Beto carried this district by about 1.5 points, and incumbent Rick Miller was re-elected by just under 5 points.
- HD 28 – This Fort Bend County district has been trending blue, going from an over 29 point Romney win to a just over 10 point Trump win. Beto lost this district by around 3 points, further improving on these margins for Democrats. Republican John Zerwas was re-elected here in 2018, by a little more than 8 points.
- HD 32 – This district located around Corpus Christi has never actually been contested by the Democrats in its current form. Therefore, it is not guaranteed that the Democrats will even run anyone here in 2020 either. Unlike the (somewhat outlier) AD 34 nearby, this district does appear to have been trending towards the Democrats, although not by the large swings that the more urban/suburban ones have. Beto lost this district by around 5 points, with Trump having won it by almost double that margin, and Romney carrying it by about 15.5 points.
- HD 54 – Republican Brad Buckley won this open seat race by less than 8 points in 2018. Unlike most of the other districts on this list, HD 54 is not located in a major urban area (it is located about halfway between Austin and Waco), and does not show a lot of the other same signs of trending blue. For one thing, this district changed very little at the presidential level between 2012 and 2016, with Romney and Trump both carrying the district by about 7 points, and Buckley’s 2018 margin of victory wasn’t substantially lower than previous Republican representatives, unlike a lot of the other districts. However, Beto did quite a bit better here, as he lost this district by just over a point, indicating that it will be competitive in 2020.
- HD 64, HD 121 – Beto narrowly carried both of these seats by less than a percentage point (under 400 votes in both cases), while Republicans won both of these seats in 2018 by between 8 and 9 percentage points. These districts are located in very different regions of the state with HD 64 centered around Denton (northwest of Dallas), and HD 121 is based in northern San Antonio. Trump did a bit better in HD 64, winning it by over 14 points, while he won HD 121 by a little more than 8 points. Even though Beto’s performances are arguably strong enough to warrant these seats as toss ups, the 2018 State House margins would indicate that the current Republicans (Lynn Stucky in HD 64, and Steve Allison HD 121) would be somewhat favored to win in 2020.
- HD 66 – Republican Matt Shaheen was re-elected to this Collin County district by under 400 votes in 2018. This district has been trending blue, as Mitt Romney carried it by almost 24 points, while Trump carried it by just over 3 points. Beto carried this district by slightly less than six points.
- HD 67 – Republican Jeff Leach was re-elected here in 2018 to this Collin County district by just over 2 points. This district is quite similar to HD 66, although Trump did a few percentage points better here.
- HD 89 – Republican Candy Noble won this open seat in 2018 by 19 points, which seems pretty safe. However, this district is worth mentioning due to it’s recent trend towards the Democrats. It went from voting for Romney by almost 35 points to voting for Trump by 25 points, and Beto lost it by about only 12 points.
- HD 92 – One of the two R held “Toss-Up” districts that Beto did not carry. He lost this Tarrant County district by about 2.5 points. However, Republican Jonathan Stickland was actually re-elected by a narrower margin (albeit, 0.1 percentage point narrower), making this the only competitive district where the 2018 Democratic candidate actually outperformed Beto. In this case, Stickland’s narrow 2018 reelection margin is the main reason I’m calling this a toss-up. As with most districts on the list, it is trending blue. Trump carried it by about 14 points, while Romney carried it by about 24 points.
- HD 93, HD 94, HD97 – This Tarrant County districts are very all similar (in terms of presidential/statewide results) to the nearby HD 92, which is classified as a toss-up. However, in all three of these districts, Republicans were re-elected in 2018 by larger margins (between 7 to 9 points). HD 97 is likely be the most competitive of the three, given that Trump did a few points worse, winning it by just under 10 points.
- HD 96 – Also centered in Tarrant County, this is the other “Toss-Up” R district that Beto lost. Beto came extremely close to carrying this district, losing it by under 100 votes. Again, this is a notable improvement for the Democrats over 2016, in which Trump won it by over 11 points. Bill Zelder was re-elected here in 2018 by under 4 points.
- HD 108 – In Dallas County, Republican Morgan Meyer won his district by only 220 votes in 2018, making him one of only two Republicans to currently represent Dallas County in the Texas State House. In addition to his very narrow election, Beto’s performance was notably strong here, winning by about 15 points, making this one of only two Republican held districts which he carried by double digits. Clinton also did really well in this district, winning it by over 6 points, in contrast to Romney who carried it by almost 20 points. Given that the district seems to be trending blue (at least at the statewide/presidential level), some may think Dems would be favored to flip this seat, but I’d prefer it to keep it a toss-up, in the absence of any announced Democratic candidates.
- HD 112 – Angie Chen Button, the other Republican in Dallas County, will face a rematch against Brandy K. Chambers, who she edged out by just a little more than 1,100 votes. This district looks promising for the Democrats at the statewide/presidential level, with Clinton carrying it by a little more than a percentage point, and Beto carrying it by just under 10 points. Angie Chen Button was re-elected here in 2018 by 2 percentage points.
- HD 126 – Another northwestern Harris County that is showing signs of becoming more Democratic, it went from voting for Romney by over 25 points to voting for Trump by just under 10 points. In 2018, Republican Sam Harless, won this open seat race by almost as much as Trump. However, Beto lost this district by less than 4 points.
- HD 134 – Going into the 2018 midterms, this suburban Harris County district may have looked like the easiest pickup opportunity for Democrats, being that Clinton carried this district in 2016 by over 15 points (a roughly 30 point swing towards the Democrats from 2012 when Romney carried it by almost the same amount.) However in 2018, Republican Sarah Davis managed to get re-elected, by around 6 points, most likely due to some of her socially moderate views. (She is pro choice). Beto easily carried this district, winning by over 21 points, making this the only district in this entire list, to have voted for him by over 20 points.
- HD 138 – Republican Dwayne Bohac also looks extremely vulnerable, as he was re-elected to this Harris County district (Houston) by a mere 47 votes, the closest margin for any Texas State House Republican in 2018. In 2016, this district was also incredibly competitive with Clinton carrying it by 36 votes, a large Democrat swing from 2012, as Romney carried it by almost 20 points. Beto won this district by over 6 points in 2018.
- HD-45 (Driftwood) - Erin Zwiener (2019)
- HD-47 (Austin) - Vikki Goodwin (2019)
- HD-52 (Round Rock) - James Talarico (2019)
- HD-65 (Carrollton) - Michelle Beckley (2019)
- HD-102 (Richardson) - Ana-Maria Ramos (2019)
- HD-105 (Irving) - Terry Meza (2019)
- HD-113 (Garland) - Rhetta Andrews Bowers (2019)
- HD-114 (Dallas) - John Turner (2019)
- HD-115 (Carrollton) - Julie Johnson (2019)
- HD-132 (Katy) - Gina Calanni (2019)
- HD-135 (Houston) - Jon E. Rosenthal (2019)
- HD-136 (Austin) - John Bucy (2019)
Texas State House of Representatives (scrolling table)
| District | ------------------ Name------------------ | Party | Incumbent | Flippable |
| District | ------------------ Name------------------ | Party | Incumbent | Flippable |
| 1 | Gary Vandeaver | R | Y | |
| 2 | Dan Flynn | R | Y | |
| 2 | Bill Brannon | D | N | |
| 2 | Bryan Slaton | R | N | |
| 2 | Dwayne "Doc" Collins | R | N | |
| 3 | Cecil Bell Jr | R | Y | |
| 3 | Martin Shupp | D | N | |
| 4 | Keith Bell | R | Y | |
| 5 | Cole Hefner | R | Y | |
| 5 | Lawyanda Prince | D | N | |
| 6 | Matt Schaefer | R | Y | |
| 6 | Julie Gobble | D | N | |
| 7 | Jay Dean | R | N | |
| 8 | Cody Harris | R | Y | |
| 9 | Chris Paddie | R | Y | |
| 9 | Mark Williams | R | N | |
| 10 | Jake Ellzey | R | N | |
| 10 | Robert "Zack" Rader | R | N | |
| 10 | Ryan Pitts | R | N | |
| 11 | Travis Clardy | R | Y | |
| 11 | Alec Johnson | D | N | |
| 12 | Kyle Kacal | R | Y | |
| 13 | Ben Leman | R | Y | |
| 14 | John Raney | R | Y | |
| 14 | Janet Dudding | D | N | |
| 14 | Raza Rahman | D | N | |
| 15 | Steve Toth | R | Y | |
| 15 | Lorena Perez Mcgill | D | N | |
| 16 | Will Metcalf | R | Y | |
| 17 | John P. Cyrier | R | Y | |
| 17 | Madeline Eden | D | N | |
| 18 | Ernest Bailes | R | Y | |
| 19 | James White | R | Y | |
| 20 | Terry M. Wilson | R | Y | |
| 20 | Jessica Tiedt | D | N | |
| 21 | Dade Phelan | R | Y | |
| 22 | Joe Deshotel Deshotel | D | Y | |
| 22 | Jacorion Randle | R | N | |
| 23 | Mayes Middleton | R | Y | |
| 23 | Jeff Anotonelli | D | N | |
| 24 | Greg Bonnen | R | Y | |
| 24 | Brian J. Rogers | D | N | |
| 25 | Patrick Henry | D | N | |
| 25 | Cody Vasut | R | N | |
| 25 | Mitch Thames | R | N | |
| 25 | Rhonda Seth | R | N | |
| 25 | Ro'Vin Garrett | R | N | |
| 25 | Troy T. Brimage | R | N | |
| 26 | D. F. "Rick" Miller | R | Y | Flippable |
| 26 | L. "Sarah" Demerchant | D | N | Flippable |
| 26 | Lawrence Allen Jr | D | N | Flippable |
| 26 | Rish Oberoi | D | N | Flippable |
| 26 | Suleman Lalani | D | N | Flippable |
| 26 | Jacey Jetton | R | N | Flippable |
| 26 | Leonard N. Chan | R | N | Flippable |
| 26 | Matt Morgan | R | N | Flippable |
| 27 | Ron Reynolds | D | Y | |
| 27 | Byron Ross | D | N | |
| 27 | Manish Seth | R | N | |
| 27 | Tom Virippan | R | N | |
| 28 | Elizabeth Markowitz | D | N | Flippable |
| 28 | Gary Gates | R | N | Flippable |
| 28 | Schell Hammel | R | N | Flippable |
| 29 | Ed Thompson | R | Y | |
| 29 | Travis Boldt | D | N | |
| 30 | Geanie W. Morrison | R | Y | |
| 30 | Vanessa Hicks-Callaway | R | N | |
| 31 | Ryan Guillen | D | Y | |
| 31 | Marian Knowlton | R | N | |
| 32 | Todd Hunter | R | Y | Flippable |
| 32 | Eric Holguin | D | N | Flippable |
| 33 | Justin Holland | R | Y | |
| 33 | Andy Rose | D | N | |
| 34 | Abel Herrero | D | Y | |
| 34 | James Hernandez | R | N | |
| 35 | Oscar Longoria | D | Y | |
| 36 | Sergio Munoz Jr | D | Y | |
| 36 | Abraham Padron | D | N | |
| 36 | Abraham Padron | D | N | |
| 37 | Alex Dominguez | D | Y | |
| 37 | Amber Medina | D | N | |
| 38 | Eddie Lucio Iii | D | Y | |
| 38 | Erin Gamez | D | N | |
| 39 | Armando 'Mando" Martinez | D | Y | |
| 40 | Terry Canales | D | Y | |
| 41 | Bobby Guerra | D | Y | |
| 41 | Richard Gonzales | D | N | |
| 41 | John (Doc) Robert Guerra | R | N | |
| 42 | Richard Pena Raymond | D | Y | |
| 43 | J.M. Lozano | R | Y | |
| 44 | John Kuempel | R | Y | |
| 44 | Robert Bohmfalk | D | N | |
| 45 | Erin Zwiener | D | Y | |
| 45 | Liliana Posada | D | N | |
| 45 | Austin Talley | R | N | |
| 45 | Carrie Isaac | R | N | |
| 45 | Kent "Bud" Wymore | R | N | |
| 46 | Sheryl Cole | D | Y | |
| 47 | Vikki Goodwin | D | Y | |
| 47 | Aaron Reitz | R | N | |
| 47 | Don Zimmerman | R | N | |
| 47 | Jennifer Fleck | R | N | |
| 47 | Jenny Roan Forgey | R | N | |
| 47 | Justin Berry | R | N | |
| 48 | Donna Howard | D | Y | |
| 48 | Bill Strieber | R | N | |
| 49 | Gina Hinojosa | D | Y | |
| 49 | Charles Allan Meyer | R | N | |
| 49 | Jenai Aragona-Hales | R | N | |
| 50 | Celia Israel | D | Y | |
| 50 | Larry Delarose | R | N | |
| 51 | Eddie Rodriguez | D | Y | |
| 51 | Joshua Sanchez | D | N | |
| 51 | Robert Reynolds | R | N | |
| 52 | James Talarico | D | Y | |
| 52 | Lucio Valdez | R | N | |
| 53 | Andrew S. Murr | R | Y | |
| 53 | Joe P. Herrera | D | N | |
| 54 | Brad Buckley | R | Y | Flippable |
| 54 | Likeithia "Keke" Williams | D | N | Flippable |
| 55 | Hugh D. Shine | R | Y | |
| 56 | Charles "Doc" Anderson | R | Y | |
| 56 | Katherine Turner-Pearson | D | N | |
| 57 | Trent Ashby | R | Y | |
| 57 | Jason Rogers | D | N | |
| 58 | Dewayne Burns | R | Y | |
| 58 | Cindy Rocha | D | N | |
| 59 | J.D. Sheffield | R | Y | |
| 59 | Cody Johnson | R | N | |
| 59 | Shelby Slawson | R | N | |
| 60 | Christopher M. Perricone | R | N | |
| 60 | Glenn Rogers | R | N | |
| 60 | Kellye Sorelle | R | N | |
| 61 | Phil King | R | Y | |
| 61 | Christopher Cox | D | N | |
| 62 | Reggie Smith | R | Y | |
| 62 | Gary D. Thomas | D | N | |
| 63 | Tan Parker | R | Y | |
| 63 | Leslie Peeler | D | N | |
| 64 | Lynn Stucky | R | Y | Flippable |
| 64 | Angela Brewer | D | N | Flippable |
| 65 | Michelle Beckley | D | Y | |
| 65 | Paige Dixon | D | N | |
| 65 | Kronda Thimesch | R | N | |
| 65 | Nancy Cline | R | N | |
| 66 | Matt Shaheen | R | Y | Flippable |
| 66 | Aimee Garza Lopez | D | N | Flippable |
| 66 | Sharon Hirsch | D | N | Flippable |
| 67 | Jeff Leach | R | Y | Flippable |
| 67 | Anthony Lo | D | N | Flippable |
| 67 | Jenna Royal | D | N | Flippable |
| 67 | Lorenzo Sanchez | D | N | Flippable |
| 67 | Rocio Gosewehr Hernandez | D | N | Flippable |
| 67 | Tom Adair | D | N | Flippable |
| 68 | Drew Springer | R | Y | |
| 68 | Patsy Ledbetter | D | N | |
| 69 | James B. Frank | R | Y | |
| 70 | Scott Sanford | R | Y | |
| 70 | Angie Bado | D | N | |
| 71 | Stan Lambert | R | Y | |
| 71 | Samuel Hatton | D | N | |
| 72 | Drew Darby | R | Y | |
| 72 | Lynette Lucas | R | N | |
| 73 | Kyle Biedermann | R | Y | |
| 73 | Stephanie Phillips | D | N | |
| 74 | Eddie Morales Jr | D | N | |
| 74 | Ramsey English Cantu | D | N | |
| 74 | Rowland Garza | D | N | |
| 74 | Luke Brown | R | N | |
| 74 | Robert Garza | R | N | |
| 74 | Ruben Falcon | R | N | |
| 75 | Mary E. Gonzalez | D | Y | |
| 76 | Claudia Ordaz Perez | D | N | |
| 76 | Elisa Tamayo | D | N | |
| 77 | Evelina (Lina) Ortega | D | Y | |
| 78 | Joe Moody | D | Y | |
| 78 | Jeffrey Lane | R | N | |
| 79 | Art Fierro | D | Y | |
| 80 | Danny Valdez | D | N | |
| 80 | Tracy King | D | N | |
| 81 | Brooks Landgraf | R | Y | |
| 82 | Tom Craddick | R | Y | |
| 83 | Dustin Burrows | R | Y | |
| 83 | Addison Perry-Franks | D | N | |
| 83 | James Barrick | D | N | |
| 84 | John Gibson | D | N | |
| 84 | John Frullo | R | N | |
| 85 | Phil Stephenson | R | Y | |
| 85 | Joey Cardenas Iii | D | N | |
| 85 | Abolaji Tijani Ayobami | R | N | |
| 85 | Robert Boettcher | R | N | |
| 86 | John Smithee | R | Y | |
| 87 | Walter Price | R | Y | |
| 88 | Ken King | R | Y | |
| 89 | Candy Noble | R | Y | |
| 89 | Jon Cocks | D | N | |
| 89 | Sugar Ray Ash | D | N | |
| 90 | Ramon Romero | D | Y | |
| 90 | Elva Camacho | R | N | |
| 91 | Stephanie Klick | R | Y | |
| 91 | Jeromey Sims | D | N | |
| 92 | Jeff Whitfield | D | N | Flippable |
| 92 | Steven Riddell | D | N | Flippable |
| 92 | Jeff Cason | R | N | Flippable |
| 92 | Jim Griffin | R | N | Flippable |
| 92 | Taylor Gillig | R | N | Flippable |
| 93 | Matt Krause | R | Y | Flippable |
| 93 | Lydia Bean | D | N | Flippable |
| 94 | Tony Tinderholt | R | Y | Flippable |
| 94 | Alisa Simmons | D | N | Flippable |
| 95 | Nicole Collier | D | Y | |
| 96 | Bill Zedler | R | Y | Flippable |
| 96 | Joe Drago | D | N | Flippable |
| 96 | David Cook | R | N | Flippable |
| 97 | Craig Goldman | R | Y | Flippable |
| 97 | Dan Willis | D | N | Flippable |
| 97 | Elizabeth Beck | D | N | Flippable |
| 98 | Giovanni Capriglione | R | Y | |
| 98 | Debra Edmondson | D | N | |
| 99 | Charlie Geren | R | Y | |
| 100 | Daniel Davis Clayton | D | N | |
| 100 | James Armstrong Iii | D | N | |
| 100 | Jasmine Felicia Crockett | D | N | |
| 100 | Lorraine Birabil | D | N | |
| 100 | Paul K. Stafford | D | N | |
| 100 | Sandra Jonelle Crenshaw | D | N | |
| 101 | Chris Turner | D | Y | |
| 102 | Ana-Maria Ramos | D | Y | |
| 102 | Linda Koop | R | N | |
| 102 | Rick Walker | R | N | |
| 103 | Rafael M. Anchia | D | Y | |
| 103 | Jerry Fortenberry Ii | R | N | |
| 103 | Sherry Lee Mecom | R | N | |
| 104 | Jessica Gonzalez | D | Y | |
| 105 | Terry Meza | D | Y | |
| 105 | Gerson Hernandez | R | N | |
| 106 | Jared Patterson | R | Y | |
| 106 | Jennifer Skidonenko | D | N | |
| 106 | James Trombley | R | N | |
| 107 | Victoria Neave | D | Y | |
| 107 | Samuel Smith | R | N | |
| 108 | Morgan Meyer | R | Y | Flippable |
| 108 | Joanna Cattanach | D | N | Flippable |
| 108 | Shawn D. Terry | D | N | Flippable |
| 108 | Tom Ervin | D | N | Flippable |
| 109 | Carl O. Sherman Sr | D | Y | |
| 109 | Christopher L. Graham | D | N | |
| 109 | Dr. Eugene Allen | R | N | |
| 110 | Toni Rose | D | Y | |
| 111 | Yvonne Davis | D | Y | |
| 112 | Angie Chen Button | R | Y | Flippable |
| 112 | Brandy K. Chambers | D | N | Flippable |
| 113 | Rhetta Andrews Bowers | D | Y | |
| 113 | Bill Metzger | R | N | |
| 113 | Will Douglas | R | N | |
| 114 | John Turner | D | Y | |
| 114 | Luisa Del Rosal | R | N | |
| 115 | Julie Johnson | D | Y | |
| 115 | Karyn Brownlee | R | N | |
| 116 | Trey Martinez Fischer | D | Y | |
| 116 | Evan Bohl | D | N | |
| 116 | Fernando Padron | R | N | |
| 116 | Robert Litoff | R | N | |
| 117 | Philip Cortez | D | Y | |
| 117 | Carlos Antonio Raymond | R | N | |
| 118 | Leo Pacheco | D | Y | |
| 118 | Adam Salyer | R | N | |
| 119 | Elizabeth "Liz" Campos | D | N | |
| 119 | Jennifer Ramos | D | N | |
| 119 | Sean Villasana | D | N | |
| 119 | George B. Garza | R | N | |
| 120 | Barbara Gervin-Hawkins | D | Y | |
| 120 | Andrew Fernandez Vicencio | R | N | |
| 120 | Ronald Payne | R | N | |
| 121 | Steve Allison | R | Y | Flippable |
| 121 | Becca Moyer Defelice | D | N | Flippable |
| 121 | Celina Montoya | D | N | Flippable |
| 121 | Jack Guerra | D | N | Flippable |
| 122 | Lyle Larson | R | Y | |
| 122 | Claire Barnett | D | N | |
| 123 | Diego Bernal | D | Y | |
| 124 | Ina Minjarez | D | Y | |
| 125 | Ray Lopez | D | Y | |
| 126 | E. Sam Harless | R | Y | Flippable |
| 126 | Natali Hurtado | D | N | Flippable |
| 126 | Undrai F. Fizer | D | N | Flippable |
| 127 | Dan Huberty | R | Y | |
| 127 | Dwight Ford | R | N | |
| 128 | Briscoe Cain | R | Y | |
| 128 | Josh Markle | D | N | |
| 128 | Mary E. Williams | D | N | |
| 128 | Robert C. Hoskins | R | N | |
| 129 | Dennis Paul | R | Y | |
| 129 | Kayla Alix | D | N | |
| 129 | Ryan Lee | R | N | |
| 130 | Tom Oliverson | R | Y | |
| 130 | Bryan J Henry | D | N | |
| 131 | Alma A. Allen | D | Y | |
| 131 | Carey Lashley | D | N | |
| 131 | Deondre Moore | D | N | |
| 131 | Elvonte Patton | D | N | |
| 132 | Gina Calanni | D | Y | |
| 132 | Angelica Garcia | R | N | |
| 132 | Mike Schofield | R | N | |
| 133 | Jim Murphy | R | Y | |
| 133 | Sandra G Moore | D | N | |
| 134 | Sarah Davis | R | Y | Flippable |
| 134 | Ann Johnson | D | N | Flippable |
| 134 | Lanny Bose | D | N | Flippable |
| 134 | Ruby Powers | D | N | Flippable |
| 135 | Jon E. Rosenthal | D | Y | |
| 135 | Justin Ray | R | N | |
| 135 | Merrilee Rosene Beazley | R | N | |
| 136 | John H. Bucy Iii | D | Y | |
| 136 | Mike Guevara | R | N | |
| 137 | Gene Wu | D | Y | |
| 138 | Akilah Bacy | D | N | Flippable |
| 138 | Jenifer Rene Pool | D | N | Flippable |
| 138 | Josh Wallenstein | D | N | Flippable |
| 138 | Claver T. Kamau-Imani | R | N | Flippable |
| 138 | Josh Flynn | R | N | Flippable |
| 138 | Lacey Hull | R | N | Flippable |
| 139 | Jarvis D. Johnson | D | Y | |
| 139 | Angeanette Thibodeaux | D | N | |
| 140 | Armando Lucio Walle | D | Y | |
| 141 | Senfronia Thompson | D | Y | |
| 141 | Willie Roaches Franklyn | D | N | |
| 142 | Harold V. Dutton Jr | D | Y | |
| 142 | Jerry Davis | D | N | |
| 142 | Natasha Ruiz | D | N | |
| 142 | Richard Bonton | D | N | |
| 142 | Jason Rowe | R | N | |
| 143 | Ana Hernandez | D | Y | |
| 144 | Mary Ann Perez | D | Y | |
| 144 | Tony Salas | R | N | |
| 145 | Christina Morales | D | Y | |
| 145 | Martha Elena Fierro | R | N | |
| 146 | Shawn Nicole Thierry | D | Y | |
| 146 | Ashton P. Woods | D | N | |
| 147 | Garnet F. Coleman | D | Y | |
| 147 | Aurelia Wagner | D | N | |
| 147 | Colin Ross | D | N | |
| 148 | Adrian Garcia | D | N | |
| 148 | Anna Eastman | D | N | |
| 148 | Cynthia Reyes-Revilla | D | N | |
| 148 | Emily Wolf | D | N | |
| 148 | Penny Morales Shaw | D | N | |
| 148 | Luis La Rotta | R | N | |
| 149 | Hubert Vo | D | Y | |
| 149 | Amber Fannin | D | N | |
| 149 | Joseph Andrew Martinez | D | N | |
| 149 | Lily Truong | R | N | |
| 150 | Valoree Swanson | R | Y | |
| 150 | Michael Robert Walsh | D | N |
Texas State Senate
Each state member represents an average of 811,147 residents, as of the 2010 Census. After the 2000 Census, each member represented 672,640. Of the 31 seats in the Texas State Senate, Democrats hold 12 seats and Republicans hold 19 seats. State senators are re-elected every four years, so only half of the senate seats are up for re-election in 2020. Texas Democrats are contesting more State Senate seats than Texas Republicans.
Here is the list of Democratic and Republican primary candidates who have filed to be on their respective party's ballots for state senate disricts.
Texas State Senate (scrolling table)
| District | ------------------ Name------------------ | Party | Incumbent |
| District | ------------------ Name------------------ | Party | Incumbent | |
| 1 | Audrey Spanko | D | N | |
| 1 | Bryan Hughes | R | Y | |
| 4 | Jay Stittleburg | D | N | |
| 4 | Brandon Creighton | R | Y | |
| 6 | Carol Alvarado | D | Y | |
| 11 | Margarita Ruiz Johnson | D | N | |
| 11 | Susan Criss | D | N | |
| 11 | Larry Taylor | R | Y | |
| 12 | Randy Daniels | D | N | |
| 12 | Shadi Zitoon | D | N | |
| 12 | Jane Nelson | R | Y | |
| 13 | Melissa Morris | D | N | |
| 13 | Richard R. Andrews | D | N | |
| 13 | Milinda Morris | R | N | |
| 13 | William J. Booher | R | N | |
| 13 | Borris L Miles | D | Y | |
| 18 | Michael Antalan | D | N | |
| 18 | Lois W. Kolkhorst | R | Y | |
| 19 | Belinda Shvetz | D | N | |
| 19 | Freddy Ramirez | D | N | |
| 19 | Roland Gutierrez | D | N | |
| 19 | Xochil Peña Rodriguez | D | N | |
| 19 | Peter P. (Pete) Flores | R | Y | |
| 20 | Judy Cutright | R | N | |
| 20 | Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa | D | Y | |
| 21 | Frank Pomeroy | R | N | |
| 21 | Judith Zaffirini | D | Y | |
| 22 | Robert Vick | D | N | |
| 22 | Brian Birdwell | R | Y | |
| 24 | Clayton Tucker | D | N | |
| 24 | Dawn Buckingham | R | Y | |
| 26 | Jose Menendez | D | Y | |
| 27 | Ruben Cortez | D | N | |
| 27 | Sara Stapleton Barrera | D | N | |
| 27 | Vanessa Tijerina | R | N | |
| 27 | Eddie Lucio Jr | D | Y | |
| 28 | Charles Perry | R | Y | |
| 29 | César J Blanco | D | N | |
| 29 | Bethany Hatch | R | N |
District Appeals Courts
The justice system of Texas handles critical cases, with outcomes that directly affect the economy, our community, and ultimately our own lives. When family, criminal or civil case decisions made by lower courts seem unfair to one party or the other, the Court of Appeals is the first recourse. The Texas Courts of Appeal are distributed in fourteen districts around the state of Texas, with the 5th District Court of Appeals covering by far the largest number of Texans.
The Court of Appeals, Fifth District, consists of a Chief Justice and 12 associate justices. This appellate court is one of Texas' most important courts with jurisdiction over criminal, family and civil appeals cases for Dallas, Collin, Rockwall, Kaufman, Grayson and Hunt counties. Like the Texas Supreme Court and Court of Criminal Appeals, Justices of the Texas Courts of Appeals are elected to six-year terms by general election.
Collin County Democrats’ biggest win in the 2018 election was the part they played in flipping Texas' 5th Court of Appeals. For 19 uninterrupted years, all 13 elected judges on Texas' 5th District Court of Appeals were Republicans, earning a reputation for being one of the most conservative courts in the state.
Even though Dallas County voters have given Democrats running for this appellate court big vote margin wins for past elections, the margin was never enough to counter balance their vote losses in the five conservative-leaning counties of the district, in particular Collin County, the largest by far of the district’s conservative counties, where Democrats lost to Republicans 31 to 69 percent. But that changed dramatically in 2018, when all eight Democrats on the ballot earned 42% to 43% percent of the vote in Collin County. That 10+ point better showing this year, combined with their large win margins in Dallas County gave the new Democratic Justices the edge they needed to prevail in the six county district.
Three more Republican incumbent justices are up for re-election in 2020, and three Democrats have filed to replace them:
- District Judge Bonnie Lee Goldstein, who currently sits on Texas’ 44th District Court, will be the Party’s nominee for Place 3 on the bench;
- District Judge Craig Smith, who currently sits on Texas’ 192nd District Court, will be the Party’s nominee for Place 6 on the bench;
- District Judge Dennise Garcia, currently sits on Texas’ 303rd District Court, will be the Party’s nominee for Place 8 on the bench.
Collin County is representative of many suburban counties around Texas, and the nation, that have been Republican strongholds since the 1980s and 1990s. Over the past decade, the electorate in suburban counties around Texas, and the nation, have become increasingly progressive election after election. During Trump’s term in office, he has both solidified and accelerated the realignment of suburban voters. Donald Trump has turned the suburbs into a disaster zone for the GOP.
Recent polls show Trump’s numbers have slipped substantially among suburban voters, especially suburban women. In 2016, Trump carried suburban voters nationally by a 49 percent to 45 percent margin over Hillary Clinton, according to exit polls conducted across the country. But for 2020, just 32 percent of all suburban voters say they definitely plan to vote for the president, according to a new Grinnell College poll conducted by the Iowa-based pollster Ann Selzer. Among women who did not attend college, Trump’s favorable rating stands at just 46 percent; he won that group with 61 percent of the vote in 2016. Among suburban women, only a quarter, 26 percent, approve of Trump.
Suburban women especially appear motivated to make their disapproval felt. In 2018, Democrats — and especially Democratic women — picked up seats in suburban House districts across the country. An August 2020 survey conducted by Cygnal, a Republican polling firm, found 56 percent of suburban women favored a generic Democratic candidate, while just 32 percent backed an unnamed Republican. Eighty-eight percent of suburban women now say they definitely will vote in the 2020 presidential election, 10 points higher than voters overall with sixty-five percent saying they think it is time to elect someone other than Donaald Trump.
As of December 2019, women registered to vote in Collin County outnumber registered men 313,706 to 281,652. If Collin County women turn against Trump, and Republicans generally, as women nationally seem poised to do, Republicans on Collin County ballots will find themselves at a definite disadvantage.
In 2018, Democrats improved their performance in Collin County by up to 20 points over candidates who ran in 2014 and by 8 to 10 points over candidates who ran in 2016. In 2014, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate received 28 percent of the vote to Sen. John Cornyn's 68.4 percent. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, earned 46.3 percent of the vote to Sen. Ted Cruz's 52.6 percent. In 2016, the top federal Democratic candidate on the ballot, Hillary Clinton received 38 percent of the vote to Donald Trump's 55 percent. In 2014, the Democratic candidate for Governor, Wendy Davis, received 32.6 percent of the vote to Gov. Greg Abbott's 65.7 percent. In 2018, while the Democratic candidate for Governor, Lupe Valdez, greatly under performed every other countywide Democratic candidate on Collin County ballots with a 39 percent loss to Gov. Greg Abbott's 58.8 percent, the Democratic candidate for Lt. Governor, Mike Collier, received 43.65 percent of the vote to Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick's 54.2 percent.
The southwest quadrant of Collin County has been trending left faster than the other portion of the county, as was apparent in the performance of Democratic candidates for state house districts 66 and 67, state senate district 8 and Texas’ 3rd congressional district. Sharon Hirsch, the Democrat for House District 66 in the far southwestern corner of the county was only 391 votes short, out of 70,192 ballots cast, of beating her Republican opponent Matt Shaheen. Sarah Depew, the Democrat for House District 67, which is the next district east of HD66, fell only 1,672 votes short, out of 75,119 ballots cast, of beating her opponent Jeff Leach.
Lorie Burch, the 2018 Democratic for Texas' Congressional District 3, which includes all of House Districts 66 and 67, plus more right-leaning areas of the county, also turned in a good performance by earning 44 percent of the vote to her Republican opponent Van Taylor's 54 percent. Those midterm election results for Democrats suggest that, at least the southwest part of Collin County, if not the entire county, is poised to flip to Democratic control in 2020.
As of the second week of December 2019 there are almost 596,000 registered voters in Collin Co. The registration count will likely increase to at least 605,000 voters for the March 3, 2020 primary election, an increase of more than 100,000 voters since the March 2016 primary election when 501,000 voters were registered.
The several state house districts and congressional districts within the borders of Collin Co. have increased their registration counts in this rapidly growing suburban county for 2020. Three of the key election districts — state house districts 66 and 67, and congressional district 3 — targeted by Democrats to flip in 2020 are wholly within The borders of Collin County. State House district 70 is especially outsized for 2020 with the crazy rapid growth of housing developments in that portion of the county.
- Congressional District 3: 526,514 registered voters
- HD-66: 112,105 registered voters
- HD-67: 120,955 registered voters
- HD-70: 153,853 registered voters
- HD-89: 127,425 registered voters
- HD-33: 81,179 registered voters (portion within Collin Collin only)
- Congressional District 32: 35,119 registered voters (portion within Collin Collin only)
- Congressional District 4: 33,884 (portion within Collin Collin only)
Including the 5,068 Dems currently in suspense, 63,131 registered voters have exclusively voted in at least one Democratic primary since 2004. There are about twice as many (123,619) who have voted exclusively in one or more Republican primaries, with 20,444 who have voted in both the Republican and Democratic primaries, cycle to cycle, over the years. As the green line in the above chart shows, the vast majority of younger age cohorts have not voted in any party's primary and so have No Party affiliation.
The list of Democratic presidential candidates for the March 3, 2020 Democratic primary will likely motivate heavier than usual voter turnout for the primary election, with a significant number of first time primary voters.
Turnout for the GOP primary will most likely be heavy too, with Republicans anxious to give Donald Trump a vote of confidence by voting for him on the GOP primary ballot, as a result of his impeachment.
Here is the list of Democratic and Republican primary candidates who have filed to be on their respective party's ballot in Collin County. Note that for the first time this century Democrats have filed for the county’s state district courts.
Collin County Ballot
| District | Name | Party | Incumbent |
| President | Amy Klobuchar | D | |
| President | Andrew Yang | D | |
| President | Bernie Sanders | D | |
| President | Cory Booker | D | |
| President | Deval Patrick | D | |
| President | Elizabeth Warren | D | |
| President | John K. Delaney | D | |
| President | Joseph R. Biden | D | |
| President | Julian Castro | D | |
| President | Kamala Harris | D | |
| President | Marianne Williamson | D | |
| President | Michael Bennet | D | |
| President | Michael R. Bloomberg | D | |
| President | Pete Buttigieg | D | |
| President | Robby Wells | D | |
| President | Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente | D | |
| President | Tom Steyer | D | |
| President | Tulsi Gabbard | D | |
| President | Donald J. Trump | R | Y |
| President | Bill Weld | R | |
| President | Bob Ely | R | |
| President | Joe Walsh | R | |
| President | Matthew John Matern | R | |
| President | Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente Guerra | R | |
| President | Zoltan G. Istvan | R | |
| U.S. Senator | Adrian Ocegueda | D | |
| U.S. Senator | Amanda K. Edwards | D | |
| U.S. Senator | Annie "Mama" Garcia | D | |
| U.S. Senator | Chris Bell | D | |
| U.S. Senator | Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez | D | |
| U.S. Senator | D. R. Hunter | D | |
| U.S. Senator | Jack Daniel Foster Jr | D | |
| U.S. Senator | Mary "Mj" Hegar | D | |
| U.S. Senator | Michael Cooper | D | |
| U.S. Senator | Royce West | D | |
| U.S. Senator | Sema Hernandez | D | |
| U.S. Senator | Victor Hugo Harris | D | |
| U.S. Senator | John Cornyn | R | Y |
| U.S. Senator | Dwayne Stovall | R | |
| U.S. Senator | John Anthony Castro | R | |
| U.S. Senator | Mark Yancey | R | |
| U.S. Senator | Virgil Bierschwale | R | |
| U. S. Representative District 3 | Lulu Seikaly | D | |
| U. S. Representative District 3 | Sean Mccaffity | D | |
| U. S. Representative District 3 | Tanner Do | D | |
| U. S. Representative District 3 | Nicholas Taylor | R | Y |
| U. S. Representative District 4 | Russell Foster | D | |
| U. S. Representative District 4 | John Ratcliffe | R | Y |
| U. S. Representative District 32 | Colin Allred | D | Y |
| U. S. Representative District 32 | Genevieve Collins | R | |
| U. S. Representative District 32 | Jon Hollis | R | |
| U. S. Representative District 32 | Floyd Mclendon | R | |
| U. S. Representative District 32 | Mark Sackett | R | |
| U. S. Representative District 32 | Jeff Tokar | R | |
| Chief Justice, Supreme Court | Nathan Hecht | R | Y |
| Chief Justice, Supreme Court | Amy Clark Meachum | D | |
| Chief Justice, Supreme Court | Gerald Zimmerer | D | |
| Justice, Supreme Court, Place 6 | Jane Bland | R | Y |
| Justice, Supreme Court, Place 6 | Kathy Cheng | D | |
| Justice, Supreme Court, Place 6 | Larry Praeger | D | |
| Justice, Supreme Court, Place 7 | Jeff Boyd | R | Y |
| Justice, Supreme Court, Place 7 | Brandy Voss | D | |
| Justice, Supreme Court, Place 7 | Staci Williams | D | |
| Justice, Supreme Court, Place 8 | Brett Busby | R | Y |
| Justice, Supreme Court, Place 8 | Gisela D. Triana | D | |
| Justice, Supreme Court, Place 8 | Peter Kelly | D | |
| Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals Pl 3 | Bert Richardson | R | Y |
| Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals Pl 3 | Dan Wood | D | |
| Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals Pl 3 | Elizabeth Davis Frizell | D | |
| Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals Pl 3 | William Pieratt Demond | D | |
| Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals Pl 3 | Gina Parker | R | |
| Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals Pl 4 | Kevin Patrick Yeary | R | Y |
| Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals Pl 4 | Steven Miears | D | |
| Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals Pl 4 | Tina Clinton | D | |
| Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals Pl 9 | David Newell | R | Y |
| Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals Pl 9 | Brandon Birmingham | D | |
| Railroad Commissioner | Ryan Sitton | R | Y |
| Railroad Commissioner | Chrysta Castañeda | D | |
| Railroad Commissioner | Kelly Stone | D | |
| Railroad Commissioner | Mark Watson | D | |
| Railroad Commissioner | Roberto Alonzo | D | |
| Railroad Commissioner | James "Jim" Wright | R | |
| Texas House of Representatives District 33 | Justin Holland | R | Y |
| Texas House of Representatives District 33 | Andy Rose | D | |
| Texas House of Representatives District 66 | Matt Shaheen | R | Y |
| Texas House of Representatives District 66 | Aimee Garza Lopez | D | |
| Texas House of Representatives District 66 | Sharon Hirsch | D | |
| Texas House of Representatives District 67 | Jeff Leach | R | Y |
| Texas House of Representatives District 67 | Anthony Lo | D | |
| Texas House of Representatives District 67 | Jenna Royal | D | |
| Texas House of Representatives District 67 | Lorenzo Sanchez | D | |
| Texas House of Representatives District 67 | Rocio Gosewehr Hernandez | D | |
| Texas House of Representatives District 67 | Tom Adair | D | |
| Texas House of Representatives District 70 | Scott Sanford | R | Y |
| Texas House of Representatives District 70 | Angie Bado | D | |
| Texas House of Representatives District 89 | Candy Noble | R | Y |
| Texas House of Representatives District 89 | Jon Cocks | D | |
| Texas House of Representatives District 89 | Sugar Ray Ash | D | |
| Justice, 5Th Court Of Appeals District, Pl 3 | David Evans | R | Y |
| Justice, 5Th Court Of Appeals District, Pl 3 | Bonnie Lee Goldstein | D | |
| Justice, 5Th Court Of Appeals District, Pl 5 | Levi J. Benton | R | |
| Justice, 5Th Court Of Appeals District, Pl 6 | David L. Bridges | R | Y |
| Justice, 5Th Court Of Appeals District, Pl 6 | Craig Smith | D | |
| Justice, 5Th Court Of Appeals District, Pl 8 | Bill Whitehill | R | Y |
| Justice, 5Th Court Of Appeals District, Pl 8 | Dennise Garcia | D | |
| District Judge, 199Th Judicial District | Angela Tucker | R | Y |
| District Judge, 380Th Judicial District | Ben Smith | R | Y |
| District Judge, 380Th Judicial District | Penny Robe | D | |
| District Judge, 380Th Judicial District | Melvin Thathiah | R | |
| District Judge, 401St Judicial District | Tonya Holt | D | |
| District Judge, 401St Judicial District | Brook Fulks | R | |
| District Judge, 401St Judicial District | George Flint | R | |
| District Judge, 401St Judicial District | Sarah Fox | R | |
| District Judge, 401St Judicial District | Wooten Suzanne | R | |
| District Judge, 416Th Judicial District | Andrea Thompson | R | Y |
| District Judge, 416Th Judicial District | Theresa Bui Creevy | D | |
| District Judge, 468Th Judicial District | Lindsey Wynne | R | Y |
| District Judge, 468Th Judicial District | Christy Albano | D | |
| District Judge, 469Th Judicial District | Piper Mccraw | R | Y |
| District Judge, 469Th Judicial District | Dana Huffman | D | |
| District Judge, 470Th Judicial District | Emily Miskel | R | Y |
| District Judge, 471St Judicial District | Andrea Bouressa | R | Y |
| District Judge, 471St Judicial District | Michael D. Payma | D | |
| County Tax Assessor-Collector | Kenneth L. Maun | R | Y |
| County Tax Assessor-Collector | John Turner-Mcclelland | D | |
| County Tax Assessor-Collector | Scott Grigg | R | |
| County Sheriff | James Skinner | R | Y |
| County Commissioner Precinct 1 | Susan Fletcher | R | Y |
| County Commissioner Precinct 1 | Carol Scarborough | D | |
| County Commissioner Precinct 1 | Courtney Brooks | D | |
| County Commissioner Precinct 3 | Darrell Hale | R | Y |
| County Commissioner Precinct 3 | Dianne C. Mayo | D | |
| County Commissioner Precinct 3 | Steve Terrell | R | |
| County Constable Precinct 1 | Shane Williams | R | Y |
| County Constable Precinct 1 | Mike Vance | R | |
| County Constable Precinct 2 | Gary Edwards | R | Y |
| County Constable Precinct 3 | Sammy Knapp | R | Y |
| County Constable Precinct 4 | Joe Wright | R | Y |
| County Democratic Party Chair | Mike Rawlins | D | Y |
| County Democratic Party Chair | Manu Lail | D | |
| County Republican Party Chair | Mark Reid | R | Y |
References:
- Texas Monthly - How to Win Texas in 2020
- Texas Tribune - Democrats could gain control of the Texas House for the first time since 2001. Here are the seats in play in 2020.
- Progress Texas - Building the Ballot: Who’s filing to run for office in Texas in 2020?
- Progress Texas - A Mass Texodus: Why Republicans are retiring instead of running
- Analyst predicts Texas Democrats can flip nine Congressional districts in 2020
- Texas Tribune - Democrats could gain control of the Texas House for the first time since 2001. Here are the seats in play in 2020.
- The Hill - Trump faces severe suburban slump
- Christian Science Monitor - ‘Texodus’: Why the Lone Star State might turn blue for real this time
- The next election will be decided by the suburbs
- GOP is left behind by changing demographics
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