Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Democratic Primary Nominating Delegate Allocations

In order to win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, a candidate must accumulate 2,382 out of 4,761 available delegate votes to win the nominating vote at the 2016 Democratic National Convention.

There are two basic types of Democratic convention delegates: pledged and unpledged (super) delegates. A candidate is eligible to win a share of the pledged delegates at stake in a state if he or she receives at least 15 percent of votes cast in a primary or the preferences expressed in a caucus, either in a congressional district or statewide. Individuals who are pledged delegates are "pledged" to vote for the candidate to whom they are allocated at the Democratic National Convention. There are expected to be approximately 4,051 pledged delegates at the convention. There are three categories of pledged delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates and pledged party leader and elected officials, or PLEO delegates.

Congressional district delegates are allocated proportionally based on the results of the primary or caucus in a congressional district. The number of district delegates that are apportioned to each congressional district is determined by the Democratic vote in each district in recent elections. At-large delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide results in the primary or caucus. Pledged party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates) are delegates by virtue of their office; PLEO delegates can include statewide elected officials, state legislators, local elected officials or party leaders. PLEO delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide results of the primary or caucus.

Unpledged delegates, often referred to as "super delegates," are automatic delegates to the convention and are not required to pledge their support to a presidential candidate. Unpledged delegates are members of the Democratic National Committee, Democratic members of Congress, Democratic governors, or distinguished party leaders - such as former presidents or vice presidents.  (List of Super Delegates)

There are expected to be approximately 710 unpledged Democratic convention super delegates in 2016, which makes up 15 percent of the total convention delegate number. If an unpledged delegate is unable to attend the convention, an alternate delegate is not substituted as a replacement.

An Associated Press survey conducted in November found 357 super delegates "planned" to support Hillary Clinton, 14 planned to support Bernie Sanders, and 339 remain publicly uncommitted and available to either candidate.

While super delegates are free to back whomever they choose at the convention, to count 357 super delegates as sure votes for Clinton at this stage is putting the cart before the horse. It’s highly unlikely they will come into play in the first place. If Sanders were to arrive at the convention with a majority of bound delegates, but fewer than the 2,382 needed to secure the nomination, it’s hard to imagine the super delegates would dare to buck the will of Democratic primary voters by swinging the count to Clinton’s favor.

For more perspective on super delegates, click this link: WaPo: Will superdelegates pick the Democratic nominee? Here’s everything you need to know.

Democratic Primary Nominating Delegate Allocation Table - Updated 2/11/15 @ 9:25 am cst

State  Date TL
PL
Del
UNPL
Super
Del
Total
Del
Del
Each
Date
Sum Sum
%
Hill
PL
Hill
Super
Hill
TL
Bern
PL
Bern
Super
Bern
TL
Avail
PL
Avail
Super
Total 4,051 710 4,761 32 357 389 36 14 50 3,983 339
Iowa 2/1 44 8 52 52 52 1.1% 23 6 29 21 0 21 0 2
New
Hampshire
2/9 24 8 32 32 84 1.8% 9 6 15 15 0 15 0 2
Nevada 2/20 35 8 43 43 127 2.7% 3 3 1 1 35 4
South
Carolina
2/27 53 6 59 59 186 3.9% 3 3 0 0 53 3
Alabama 3/1 53 7 60 5 5 0 0 53 2
American
Samoa
3/1 6 4 10 0 0 0 0 6 4
Arkansas 3/1 32 5 37 4 4 0 0 32 1
Colorado 3/1 66 13 79 9 9 0 0 66 4
Democrats
Abroad
3/1 13 4 17 0 0 0 0 13 4
Georgia 3/1 102 14 116 9 9 0 0 102 5
Mass-
achusetts
3/1 91 25 116 16 16 1 1 91 8
Minnesota 3/1 77 16 93 10 10 1 1 77 5
Oklahoma 3/1 38 4 42 0 0 0 0 38 4
Tennessee 3/1 67 9 76 6 6 0 0 67 3
Texas 3/1 222 30 252 10 10 0 0 222 20
Vermont 3/1 16 10 26 4 4 2 2 16 4
Virginia 3/1 95 15 110 1,034 1,220 25.6% 12 12 0 0 95 3
Kansas 3/5 33 4 37 0 0 0 0 33 4
Louisiana 3/5 51 7 58 2 2 0 0 51 5
Nebraska 3/5 25 5 30 125 1,345 28.3% 3 3 0 0 25 2
Maine 3/6 25 5 30 30 1,375 28.9% 3 3 1 1 25 1
Michigan 3/8 130 18 148 9 9 0 0 130 9
Mississippi 3/8 36 5 41 3 3 1 1 36 1
North
Carolina
3/8 107 14 121 310 1,685 35.4% 4 4 1 1 107 9
Northern
Marianas
3/12 6 5 11 11 1696 35.6% 0 0 0 0 6 5
Florida 3/15 214 32 246 21 21 0 0 214 11
Illinois 3/15 156 26 182 19 19 0 0 156 7
Missouri 3/15 71 13 84 9 9 0 0 71 4
Ohio 3/15 143 16 159 671 2,367 49.7% 7 7 0 0 143 9
Arizona 3/22 75 10 85 5 5 1 1 75 4
Idaho 3/22 23 4 27 1 1 0 0 23 3
Utah 3/22 33 4 37 149 2,516 52.8% 2 2 0 0 33 2
Alaska 3/26 16 4 20 0 0 0 0 16 4
Hawaii 3/26 25 9 34 3 3 0 0 25 6
Washington 3/26 101 17 118 172 2,688 56.5% 9 9 0 0 101 8
Wisconsin 4/5 86 10 96 96 2,784 58.5% 2 2 0 0 86 8
Wyoming 4/9 14 4 18 18 2,802 58.9% 0 0 0 0 14 4
Connecticut 4/26 55 15 70 11 11 0 0 55 4
Delaware 4/26 21 10 31 4 4 0 0 21 6
Maryland 4/26 95 23 118 13 13 0 0 95 10
New York 4/26 247 44 291 36 36 0 0 247 8
Penn-
sylvania
4/26 189 21 210 8 8 0 0 189 13
Rhode
Island
4/26 24 9 33 753 3,555 74.7% 6 6 0 0 24 3
Indiana 5/3 83 9 92 92 3,647 76.6% 4 4 0 0 83 5
Guam 5/7 7 5 12 12 3,659 76.9% 1 1 0 0 7 4
West
Virginia
5/10 29 8 37 37 3,696 77.6% 1 1 1 1 29 6
Kentucky 5/17 55 6 61 1 1 0 0 55 5
Oregon 5/17 61 12 73 134 3,830 80.4% 5 5 0 0 61 7
Virgin
Islands
6/4 7 5 12 12 3,842 80.7% 1 1 0 0 7 4
Puerto Rico 6/5 60 7 67 67 3,909 82.1% 1 1 0 0 60 6
California 6/7 475 71 546 35 35 0 0 475 36
Montana 6/7 21 6 27 0 0 0 0 21 6
New Jersey 6/7 126 16 142 9 9 2 2 126 5
New
Mexico
6/7 34 9 43 4 4 0 0 34 5
North
Dakota
6/7 18 5 23 1 1 1 1 18 3
South
Dakota
6/7 20 5 25 806 4,715 99.0% 0 0 0 0 20 5
District of
Columbia
6/14 20 26 46 46 4,761 100.0% 11 11 1 1 20 14
4,051 710 4,761 4,761 32 357 389 36 14 50 3.983 339
.

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