Slicing And Dicing The Topline 2012 Texas Election Numbers

by Michael Handley

Republicans have held every statewide office for 14 years, the Legislature for 12 years and every state board and agency for 14 years – with GOP appointees overseeing everything from education to health to the environment.

Texans have voted for Republicans for president in each of the past nine general elections.   Not since 1976 has Texas gone blue in a presidential election year.

Social Media Predicted 2012 Election Results

PRWEB ~ November 09, 2012

The 2012 presidential election results are in, and it is evident that social media played a larger role than ever in the outcome. President Obama dominated the social media battle, and ended up winning the presidency. Despite pollsters claiming a ‘tight’ race in the final days before the election, social media statistics told another story. This divergence raises an important question; Can social media predict election results?

Social media allows people to ‘connect’ with a candidate in a tangible way by providing an open channel of communication. This is a valuable tool for a campaign, as it gives people who are interested in a candidate a way to become engaged and contribute, which is a reality that internet marketers have known for some time.

Predicting Presidential Election Results

Collin Co. Election Day Vote "Anywhere" Centers

by Michael Handley

Collin County will again have countywide "Voting Center" polling locations on Election Day, November 6th, 2012. Election Day Vote Centers work like Early Voting polling locations where voters living anywhere in Collin County may vote at any of the 67 Voting Centers that will be open around the county on Election Day

• Election Day Vote Center Locations

Early Voting 2012 Wrap

by Michael Handley

Comparing early ballots cast as a percentage of registered voters, 2012 turnout lags 2008 turnout in Collin County and ten of Texas' fifteen largest counties. This means that either voters are less motivated in 2012 than in 2008 or more people are just waiting to vote on Election Day.   

Early voting polls closed at 7 p.m. Friday, but many polling places in Collin Co. and around Texas still had people waiting in line to vote at that hour.  The last person in line at 7 p.m. at some polling locations in Collin Co. had to wait over 45 minutes to cast their ballot Friday evening.

The number of Collin Co. ballots cast on Friday was a record 30,908, an increase of 5,667 ballots cast over the 2008 final Friday early voting count.  Some increase in the number of ballots cast in 2008 is expected for this 2012 election, considering the rapid pace of Collin Co. population growth.

Broken Texas Motor Voter Registration Process

by Michael Handley

I haven't been publishing articles over the last twelve days because I've been working at one of the busiest Collin County Early Voting polling locations as an Alternate Election Judge.

The Texas Motor Voter Registration process remains broken.  The most common voter problem Early Voting Election Judges, Alternate Judges and Clerks across Texas handled again this year was the failure of the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) to register some people to vote when they obtained, updated or renewed their driver's license.  In 2012, over a third of all new Texas voters registered to vote through the DPS.

Early Voting In Collin Co.

by Michael Handley

Through the first Thursday of early voting, Texas' 15 largest counties reported nearly 1.18 million in-person and mail ballots had been cast, a 6.8 percent increase over the same period in 2008.

Early voting continues to be brisk in Collin County. The number of ballots cast through Friday is running 10.4 percent ahead of the first six days of 2008 early voting.

While that 10.4 percent numerical increase seems impressive, the enthusiasm of 2012 early voters is not necessarily higher than in 2008. In fact, a case can be made that enthusiasm is down. Take into account that with the county's rapid population growth, the number of people living in Collin Co. has increased from an estimated Voting Age Population (VAP) of 547,209 in 2008  to  667,776 potential voters in 2012.

The table at right projects possible 2012 turnout final numbers for Collin Co. by applying 2008 turnout patterns to current population estimates (Texas DSHS Center for Health Statistics) and voter registration numbers. Approximately 72 percent of population are voting age persons.

In 2008, 77.8 percent (425,994) of the VAP was registered to vote, but only 68.7 percent (458,872) of the Collin Co. VAP is registered for the 2012 general election.

This decrease in the percentage of eligible voters interested in registering to vote certainly suggests a drop in voter enthusiasm from 2008 to 2012. Are those less interested potential voters Republicans, Democrats or a little of both?

To keep things in perspective, 22.5 percent of registered Collin Co. voters turned out to vote during the first six days of 2008 early voting, while the comparable 2012 accumulated turnout of registered voters is only 23.1 percent.

Comparing the 2008 to 2012 daily percentage of registered Collin Co. voters going to polling places also shows little change in voter enthusiasm. 

The impressive numerical turnout increase over 2008 for 2012 days one and two followed by significantly less impressive days three, four, five and six of Collin Co. early voting suggests that perhaps some of the early vote may have simply shifted to the early days of early voting.

Collin Co.Daily
Percentage of
Registered Voters
Voting

A Gallup poll out Friday shows the make up of the electorate nationally also remains virtually unchanged since the 2008 election. The survey of likely voters shows nonwhites, blacks and Hispanics sharing roughly the same share of the electorate they did in 2008.

According to Gallup's year by year analysis, blacks account for 11 percent of voters this year when in 2008, they made up 12 percent of the electorate. And Gallup predicts Hispanics grew to be 7 percent of the electorate, a one point increase since 2008.

"Key elements of President Barack Obama's electoral coalitions, such as racial minorities, women, young adults and postgraduates will likely turn out at rates similar to those in 2008," the survey says.

DBN Endorses Jack Ternan For Texas Senate District 8

by Michael Handley, Democratic Blog News Managing Editor

Jack Ternan's campaign for Texas Senate District 8 last week released two campaign videos. Jack G. B. Ternan, Jr. is the Democratic candidate for Texas State Senate, District 8.

2012 Early Voting In Collin Co. Starts Brisk

At the end of the first days of 2012 early voting in Collin County, the vote count was running well ahead of 2008 early voting. This year, 16,531 people voted in-person on day one, 18,063 people voted on day two and 16,673 people voted on day three  of early voting.  Plus, 4,997 vote by mail ballots had been returned to the Collin County Early Voting Clerk by the second day of early voting.

In 2008, 13,900 people voted on the first day, 15,356 people voted on day two and 15,563 people voted on day three of early voting in Collin Co.

Collin Co. November General Election
Election Year	2008	2012
Total Population	760,013	927,466
Registered Voters	425,994	460,000
Voting Age Population (VAP)	547,209	667,776
Percentage of VAP Registered	77.8%	68.9%
Total Turnout	298,647	317,400
Early Turnout In-Person	211,637	225,037
Percent Early	70.9%	70.9%
Election Day Turnout In-Person	75,009	79,350
Percent Election Day	25.1%	25.0%
Vote By Mail Turnout	11,834	12,696
Percent VBM	4.0%	4.0%
Percent of Turnout to Registered	70.1%	69.0%
Percent of Turnout to VAP	54.6%	47.5%

According to Texas DSHS Center for Health Statistics population estimates, Collin Co. has grown to 927,466 residents during 2012, with approximately 72 percent of that number representing voting age persons.

The table at right projects possible 2012 turnout numbers for Collin Co. by applying 2008 turnout patterns to current population estimates and voter registration numbers.

Turnout across the rest of North Texas is also strong. More than 70,000 voters cast ballots Monday in Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton Counties. Texas turned out in high numbers across the state on the first day of early voting, too, setting records in some places.

The Texas Secretary of State reported Tuesday that more than 378,000 people cast early ballots Monday in the state's 15 most populous counties, either by mail or in person. That's about 4.6 percent of the registered voters in those counties. More than 32,000 people cast early ballots in Dallas County and another 30,000 ballots were cast in Tarrant County. In Denton County, 12,000 people turned out to vote early.

GO VOTE!

Early voting for the November 6, 2012 General Election starts Monday October 22, 2012. November 6, 2012 General Election Information:

• Collin Co. Early Voting Locations & Hours
• Collin Co. Election Day Polling Locations
• Collin Co. Sample Ballots
• Texas-wide polling places and times at VoteTexas.gov 

Presidential Debate Watch: Get Fired Up And Ready To Vote

We invite you to get "fired up and ready to go" for the rest of the campaign Monday evening, October 22nd by attending a Debate Watch at Rugby House Pub, in north west Plano ~ 8604 Preston Rd., Suite 100, Plano, Tx 75024. (map)

Come watch the October 22nd debate between Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama with your Democratic friends and neighbors. The debate telecast starts a 8:00 pm, but you are welcome to come early to order drinks and food and chat with your friends and neighbors.

This 90-minute debate, moderated by CBS' Face the Nation host Bob Schieffer, telecast from Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, will be broken up into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes, each on Foreign Policy.

The Texas Democratic Women of Collin County, Democratic Network, Democratic Blog News, Plano Drinking Liberally and a local OFA group are co-sponsors of this debate watch event at Rugby House Pub media room. 

State Education Budget Cuts Hit Collin Co. Schools

Of the $5.4 billion cut from public education, the school districts in Texas Senate District 8 suffered an estimated loss of $119.2 million in 2013, according to the Legislative Budget Board. Plano, Frisco and Richardson ISDs were dealt the lion's share, losing $35.1 million, $26.9 million and $20.9 million respectively.

"The millions of dollars that were cut from schools in District 8 have had a direct impact in the classrooms," Democratic candidate for Texas Senate District 8 Jack Ternan said. "Our elementary schools sent more than 400 class size waiver requests to the Texas Education Agency, and 289 of those waivers came from Richardson ISD alone."

"Voting to cut funds from public education like Rep. Paxton did is irresponsible," Ternan said. "Education is the backbone in our community. It must be supported if we want our kids to succeed in the future."

DMN Endorses Paul Sadler for U.S. Senate

Dallas Morning News Editorial Board Endorses Paul Sadler for U.S. Senate

Texans face a decision in this election that has come before them only twice over the last four decades: How to fill a Senate seat that has carried with it a proud lineage of service to the state and nation.

Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is stepping down after almost 20 years in Washington, where she made it a top priority to look out for Texans’ national, state and even personal needs. She first won her post in 1993, succeeding Democrat Lloyd Bentsen, who served for 22 years. Like Hutchison, he provided consistent constituent aid as well as leadership on national and state matters.

The committed work of these two bipartisan leaders to their state creates an impressive, demanding legacy for their successor. Recommending the right candidate to follow in the Hutchison-Bentsen tradition is a responsibility this newspaper takes seriously. That’s why we’ve interviewed both candidates multiple times, examined their public careers, reviewed their answers to our questionnaire, spoken with others who know them well and followed their activities on the campaign trail.

After that thorough examination, we believe Democrat Paul Sadler, 57, is the best person to uphold this legacy of service to Texas and to keep our state relevant where it matters most.

Read the full endorsement editorial @ The Dallas Morning News.


Ted Cruz would eliminate the Department of Education,
cutting billions more from Texas' education budget.


Paul Sadler speaks to Texans in Houston, TX