Obama's American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan

ADP Employer Services has just completed their jobs survey for December of 2008. They are predicting that when the Federal Jobs Report comes out in a couple of days that it will show a loss of 693,000 in the month of December alone.

Add that number to the 533,000 jobs lost in November and that adds up to 1,226,000 jobs lost since election day 2008 and 11,026,000 jobs lost in all of 2008. Let that enormous number sink in for a minute. Job losses were large and widespread across every major industry sector in 2008. (Chart 1 - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

The US unemployment rate, now at 6.7 percent, is forecast by many economists to rise above 8 percent, or even higher, by the end of 2009. IHS Global Insight, a Waltham, MA forecasting firm, projects the jobless rate will hit 9.4 percent by the end of 2009, a level not seen since 1982, when unemployment hit a post-World War II high of nearly 11 percent.

President elect Obama is calling for "swift and bold" bipartisan action on his "American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan" to stop the hemorrhaging of the economy. Politico.com reports he is looking for as many as 80 votes in the Senate, requiring that more than twenty Republicans support his recovery program. He's not only invited congressional Republicans to offer their ideas, he is including tax breaks into his plan so that Republicans will find it easier to support.

But waiting for Republicans to support the recovery program insures only one thing -- delay. We now know that Republican members of the 111th Congress are planning to place ideology above action for the American people. Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Republican House Minority Leader John Boehner have already dismissed the need for "swift and bold" action, with both McConnell and Boehner calling for drawn-out "hearings in the appropriate committees." This is unacceptable!

How many more millions of American workers will lose their jobs before the Democratic majorities in both houses of congress overcome Republican foot-dragging and McConnell's threat to filibuster the Senate?

This is not the time for the Congress to be conducting business as usual. If you have never called or written your representatives in the U.S. House and Senate, now is the time to start. Write, call or email both U.S. Senators for Texas, John Cornyn and Kay Bailey Hutchison, and your Representative in U.S. House and tell them this is a very real crisis for the American people and they must support President Obama's "American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan."

You can find the contact information for your representatives in the U.S. House and Senate at the following links:
U.S. Senate	U.S. House

There are two congressional districts in Collin County: Map

For a little more to think about read: The Price of Consensus: Obama and Congressional Republicans

State Senator Seeks To End Straight Ticket Voting

Houston Chronicle AUSTIN — Republican Tx state senator Jeff Wentworth from San Antonio has said he will introduce a bill to eliminate the straight-ticket voting option, even after Texans hit a 10-year high in the percentage of ballots sticking entirely with one party. Wentworth introduced the same bill in 2007, but the bill died without advancement. Texas Democratic Party spokesman Hector Nieto said straight-ticket voting was “a good thing for both parties” and accused Republicans of trying to disrupt the inroads Democrats have made in urban counties, notably Harris and Dallas counties. “It’s clear Republicans have seen Democrats organizing in a better manner and using straight-ticket voting to our advantage,” Nieto said. “Instead of competing, they just want to do away with it.” Full Story

A Blue Collin Co.

The Democratic Party of Collin County need only look at how the Harris County Democrats organized to elect a long slate of Democrats in a county long dominated by Republicans. Like Harris County, Collin County Can Turn Blue With Smart Leadership.

The Texas Progressive Alliance selected the Harris County Democratic Coordinated Campaign as its “Texan of the Year” for 2008:

The Harris County Democratic Coordinated Campaign faced a daunting task in 2008: Take Texas' largest county, which hadn't elected a Democrat to any county wide office in over a decade and which went for George Bush by ten points in 2004, and turn it blue. And they had to do it amid the high expectations that followed Dallas' fabled blue sweep in 2006, with the Harris County GOP knowing they were being targeted. And they had to start from scratch, since there hadn't been any kind of effort like it in anyone's memory. Oh, and in the middle of it all they had to abandon their headquarters and move to a new location thanks to the damage that Hurricane Ike wrought [and creation of a campaign'08 website].

The key was strong leadership, starting with the vision of people like Party Chairman Gerry Birnberg and Dave Mathieeson, the operational know-how of Executive Director Jamaal Smith and Bill Kelly, and the coordination and hard work of many, many people. They developed a plan, matched it with a budget and coordinated with all the candidates. They opened branch offices all around the county and drew on the energy of Democrats new and old. They knocked on doors, made calls, sent mail, and spread the message of Democratic change everywhere.

And in the end, they succeeded, with Democrats winning 27 of 34 county wide races. They boosted turnout in the traditional Democratic areas, and improved performance all across the county. They relentlessly pushed an early-vote message, which translated into leads of 50,000 votes or more for most candidates going into Election Day. They stressed the importance of voting Democratic all the way down the ballot, which minimized under voting in the lower-profile races. They brought in new voters and brought back those who had given up hope, and got them all on the same page.

Add it all up, and the new year will bring new Democratic judges, a new Sheriff, a new County Attorney, a new District Clerk, and two new County Department of Education trustees. For that, and for the promise that 2010 will bring even more success and help pave the way towards turning all of Texas blue, the Texas Progressive Alliance is proud to name the Harris County Democratic Party Coordinated Campaign its Texan of the Year for 2008.

Locating good Democratic candidates to run in Collin County is a only half the battle to turn the county blue. As in Harris County, Collin County candidates need a Democratic support infrastructure built and managed by the local Democratic Party to support the candidates and help get them elected.

Democratic candidates need more than the support of just their own circle of friends and supporters. Candidates need competently orchestrated local party support, as provided in Harris County for the 2008 election cycle, to overcome the advantage that Republicans now enjoy in the county.

As a starting point, Collin County Democrats should be closely analyzing the 2008 election data and gathering other voter information to prepare for the 2010 and 2012 election cycles. Democratic candidates need the same advantages that Republican candidates now enjoy in the county.

Micro-target marketing applied to political organizing and Get Out The Vote is a big part of how the Republicans turned Texas, Collin County and most of the U.S. so red over the last 20 years. They pulled info from official voting records and various commercial marketing data sources on who subscribed to what magazines, who were members of what organizations, church affiliations and so forth to populate their equivalent to VAN.

Micro-targeting direct marketing data-mining techniques and predictive market segmentation (cluster analysis) is use by Republicans to identify and target voters, both committed and potential.

That means not just looking at voting history, but finding out about their lifestyles, buying habits, and even how they spend their free time. In the words, "It's not where they live, it's how they live.”

Republicans have stockpiled millions of names, phone numbers and addresses with consumer preferences, voting histories and other demographic information.

The information allows Republican campaigns to target individual households with various means of communication including direct mail, phone calls, home visits, television, radio, web advertising, email, text messaging, etc. The targeted communications convey messages tailored to issues the resident is believed to care about to build support for fundraising, campaign events, volunteering, and eventually to turn them out to the polls on election day.

Micro-targeting tactics rely on transmitting a tailored message to a targeted subgroup of the electorate determined by the unique information data-mined about individuals of that special interest subgroup.

The Democratic Party of Collin County should be attempting to answering a few basic questions about the 2008 general election as the first step to building its own micro-targeted Collin County voter database.

On election day 2008 there were 424,821 registered voters in Collin County out of an eligible voting age population of approximately 540,000. So, there were up to 115,179 people of voting age that never registered to vote. Of the 424,821 registered voter number, 56,968 were in "suspend" status leaving 367,853 active voters. 298,647 people voted in the 2008 election in Collin County which means that 69,206 active voters did not vote.

So, adding the total of 126,174 active and inactive voters who did not vote to the 115,179 eligible voters who have never registered to vote, we have a "non-participating voter" population of 241,353 people in the county. Plus, between election day 2008 and election day 2010 some 2,500 teens will mature beyond the voting age threshold and additional eligible voters will move into the county.

It is among these "non-participating voters" that Democrats will likely find the margin of extra votes to turn Collin County blue in future elections. The problem before us is to figure out how to identify progressive-leaning non-participating voters and then motivate those voters to contribute money and vote for Democratic candidates. Some of the questions that must be answered to begin to qualify these "non-participating voters" as Democratic supporters include:

• Who are the 56,968 registered voters in "suspend" status and what will it take to make them not only active voters again, but active Democrats?
• Who are the 69,206 active voters did not vote this year and why didn't they vote? Are they disaffected Republicans? What issues might motivate them to vote in 2010 and what kind of Democratic candidate might they find attractive?
• Why didn't 115,179 people of voting age register to vote this year - who are they?
• Who are the 108,208 (36.6%) people who voted for Obama.
• Who are the teen agers in 2008 non-voting age segment of the population that will turn 18 by election day 2010 and 2012 and how can the DPCC start to pull them into organizing events asap?

If Democrats can successfully answer just some of these questions about the 2008 general election voters and "non-participating voters," Democratic candidates have a much better chance of winning the county in 2010 and most particularly in 2012.

It might be easier for the Democratic Party to attract full slates of high caliber Democratic candidates to run in Collin County if potential candidates know they can count on fully orchestrated local party support, such as the Harris County Democratic Party provided in 2008.

Related Links:

• Politics Is No Longer Local - It's Viral
• GOTV Consideration - Young Democrats Use Cell Phones and the Internet
• Can Texas Go Blue Like Colorado?
• Republican Party Looses As Democratic Party Gains In Texas
• The Incredible Shrinking Republican Base In Texas
• Republican Brand Growing Weak In Texas
• County By County Texas Presidential Voting Results
• Web Based Political Networking
• More Videos on Web-Based Networking and Communication
• DNC blunts GOP Micro Targeting Lead
• A Stake In The Heart Of The Center-Right Hype
• Gov. Perry Making Abortion A Centerpiece Of 2010 Texas Politics...

FDR's New Deal

A new book, "Nothing to Fear: FDR's Inner Circle and the Hundred Days That Created Modern America" by Adam Cohen, describes how FDR's New Deal was crafted through a process of rigorous argument within the president's innermost circle during FDR's First Hundred Days in office.

Cohen, a member of the New York Times editorial board, "delivers an exemplary and remarkably timely narrative of FDR's famous first Hundred Days as president," according to Publishers Weekly.

"Providing a new perspective on an oft-told story, Cohen zeroes in on the five Roosevelt aides-de-camp whom he rightly sees as having been the most influential in developing FDR's wave of extraordinary actions. These were agriculture secretary Henry Wallace, presidential aide Raymond Moley, budget director Lewis Douglas, labor secretary Frances Perkins and Civil Works Administration director Harry Hopkins. This group, Cohen emphasizes, did not work in concert. The liberal Perkins, Wallace and Hopkins often clashed with Douglas, one of the few free-marketers in FDR's court. Moley hovered somewhere in between the two camps. As Cohen shows, the liberals generally prevailed in debates. However, the vital foundation for FDR's New Deal was crafted through a process of rigorous argument within the president's innermost circle rather than ideological consensus. Cohen's exhaustively researched and eloquently argued book provides a vital new level of insight into Roosevelt's sweeping expansion of the federal government's role in our national life."

Right Wing efforts to re-write history will accelerate as they try to oppose Obama's policies by attacking FDR's legacy and blaming the Great Depression on FDR's policies - notwithstanding the fact that the Great Depression was well under way when FDR took office in 1933. Many FDR bashers quote skewed and factually misinterpreted data presented in a book by libertarian author Jim Powell, "FDR's Folly: How Roosevelt and His New Deal Prolonged the Great Depression." Richard Nixon biographer Conrad Black writes a piece in The Daily Beast about “Why The Right Should Leave FDR Alone:”

Hoover had made the worst possible selection of policy options - higher taxes and tariffs and a shrunken money supply. The unemployment rate was approximately 33%, about five times what it is now, and there was no direct relief for the unemployed. They could beg, steal, or starve, though Hoover claimed that they prospered selling apples.

On Inauguration Day, 1933 (then March 4), there were machine gun nests at the corners of the great government buildings in Washington, for the only time since the Civil War. All banks in 32 states had been closed. Six other states had closed almost all their banks. In the other ten states and D.C., withdrawals were limited to 5 percent of deposits, and in Texas to $10 per day. The New York Stock Exchange and Chicago commodity exchanges had also been closed, indefinitely. The financial system had effectively collapsed, and was threatening to take the life savings of millions of people and what was left of the world’s financial system with it.

In a fever of activity, Roosevelt guaranteed bank deposits, made the federal government a temporary non-voting preferred shareholder in thousands of suddenly under-capitalized banks—more than half the banks in the country—refinanced millions of residential and farm mortgages, tolerated cartels and collective bargaining to raise prices and wages, increased the money supply, effectively departed the gold standard, repealed Prohibition of alcoholic beverages (wrenching one of the nation’s largest industries out of the hands of the underworld), and legislated reduced working hours and improved working conditions for the whole work force. In the next two years, he set up the Securities and Exchange Commission, created the Social Security system, and broadened the powers of the Federal Reserve to equal those of other national central banks, in what became known as the Second New Deal.

Unemployment declined from about 33 percent when Roosevelt entered office to half of one percent when he died in office 12 years and 39 days later, and had been at that point for four and a half years, since several months before Pearl Harbor. The average per capita income doubled under Roosevelt, and was more equitably distributed, as the United States led the Allies to victory over the Nazis and Japanese imperialists, and the admission or restoration of Japan, Germany, France, and Italy to the democratic and civilized Western Alliance.

Roosevelt won four consecutive presidential elections with an average of more than 56 percent of the vote, and his party, while he led it, won seven consecutive elections of both houses of Congress. These are not the usual rewards for prolongation of economic distress. FDR had his faults, but he was a great leader at a time when America and the Western world had to have a great leader in the White House, and the American loony right should aim their spitballs elsewhere. There is no shortage of deserving targets.

University of California historian Eric Rauchway says:

The most important thing to know about Roosevelt's economics is that, despite claims to the contrary, the economy recovered during the New Deal. During Roosevelt's first two terms, the U.S. economy grew at average annual growth rates of 9 percent to 10 percent, with the exception of the recession year of 1937-1938...

Excepting 1937-1938, unemployment fell each year of Roosevelt's first two terms. In part, the jobs came from Washington, which directly employed as many as 3.6 million people to build roads, bridges, ports, airports, stadiums, and schools -- as well as, of course, to paint murals and stage plays. But new jobs also came from the private sector, where manufacturing work increased apace.

This basic fact is clear -- unless you quote only the unemployment rate for the recession year 1938 and count government employees hired under the New Deal as unemployed, which conservative commentators have taken to doing.

1937-1938 was the period Roosevelt dialed back the New Deal in the name of conservative budget principles. By 1937 things were a lot better than they were in 1933. FDR himself actually subscribed to conservative budget principles and in 1937 he was persuaded to balance the budget, or try to. When FDR cut New Deal spending, to balance the budget, the economy went back down again. What saved the economy, and the New Deal, was the enormous fiscal stimulus program known as World War II, which finally provided a fiscal stimulus adequate to the economy’s needs.

Aside from Krugman there has been few in the media to respond to conservative revisionists who try to indirectly attack Obama's proposals by attacking FDR's New Deal. In the coming months and years Right Wing efforts to re-write history will accelerate as they try to oppose Obama's policies by attacking FDR's legacy. Democrats must be prepared to aggressively respond to such retroactive propaganda efforts.