Monday, October 12, 2020

Polling - GOP Risk Losing Texas

With Texas early in-person voting starting tomorrow, and mail ballot returns already flowing into county election offices across the state, it’s a dead-heat race between Biden and Trump, and Hegar and Cornyn for the state’s U.S. Senate seat. A poll released by Civiqs last Wednesday that surveyed likely voters during October 3-6 found Trump and Biden dead even at 48-48 percent all.

An EMC Research poll conducted in roughly the same time period found a similar result, with the candidates tied at 49 percent each. Other polls show Biden has a slight, but narrow, advantage. Public Policy Polling found Biden ahead by one point, while Data for Progress shows Biden up by two. 

All the polls are well within the margin of error, but presidential election polling at this point for past election cycles had GOP presidential and down ballot candidates leading by significant double digits. In the U.S. Senate race, the polls show a single digit race between MJ Hegar and incumbent Republican John Cornyn. Data for Progress found Hegar behind by just three points, while Civiqs found Hegar only one point behind Cornyn. 

If total turnout reaches at least 63.9 percent of registered voters, Joe Biden can win Texas by a slim margin of one-half of one point — 49.9 to 49.4 percent, likely pulling Hegar over the win line with him in a photo finish. That amounts to Biden winning Texas by about 55,000 votes.

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