GOP's Serious Vulnerability To A Democratic Wave Election

Democracy Corps

Less than 100 days until the election, the latest battleground survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps shows Democrats with an advantage in the most vulnerable tier of Republican districts. The first Democracy Corps survey of the reapportioned battleground shows Republican incumbents in serious and worsening trouble. The 2012 campaign has just turned the corner on 100 days and the message of this survey could not be clearer: these 54 battleground Republicans are very vulnerable and many will lose their seats.

These members, on average, are barely ahead of their challengers and are as vulnerable as the incumbents in 2006, 2008 and 2010. Those elections we now know crystallized earlier—in 2010, incumbent vulnerability translated into anti-Democratic voting by March as health care came to a close in 2010. These incumbents are equally vulnerable but have not yet paid the price for the Ryan budget and their priorities, but it is clear that their support is now falling.

These Republican incumbents now hold a marginal edge against their unnamed challengers—47 to 45 percent.

In the most competitive half of the battleground – the 27 most vulnerable Republican-held seats, where Democrats lead the named incumbent by 6 points, 50 to 44 percent—two-thirds could lose their seats.

While Democrats start behind in the vote in the second-tier districts, a balanced battle on the Ryan budget and tax cuts erodes the Republican advantage by two-thirds, getting Democrats to within 3 points in these districts.

A number of things have come together to make these incumbents vulnerable. Obama has made significant gains in these districts—he edges Romney on the ballot by a 2-point margin—just two points short of his margin in these districts in 2008. The Republican brand is also in trouble in these Republican seats, and the party image is growing increasingly negative. Finally, these incumbents themselves are very weak on the traditional measures of incumbency, like fighting for people in their own district.

Read the full story @ Democracy Corps.

Sadler Could Win U.S. Senate In November On Turnout

When it comes to the reality of winning election to the U.S. Senate in the one of the nation's most consistently far right red states, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Paul Sadler argues it isn't impossible. Sadler believes a high turnout of his supporters, Democrats, Independents and old guard Republicans, for the November general election could give him the win over Tea Party nominee Ted Cruz .

Tea party-backed attorney Ted Cruz trounced old guard Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst to win the primary runoff Tuesday and seize the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate.

Cruz received support from national Tea Party super PACs such as Club for Growth and FreedomWorks, national conservative radio hosts including Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity and Tea Party celebrities Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum.

According to a Public Policy Polling (PPP) report,Cruz's victory was driven by 4 things:

The Tea Party, the enthusiasm of his supporters, a generational divide within the Texas Republican ranks, and the lack of regard the party base currently holds for Rick Perry.

Cruz led Dewhurst by a whooping 75-22 margin with Tea Party voters, more than making up for a 56-39 deficit Dewhurst had with voters who don't consider themselves members of that movement. There has been too much of a tendency to ascribe any Republican primary upset over the last few years to Tea Party voters, but this is one case where it's well justified.

Sadler said in a KVUE interview that he doesn't buy is Cruz's claim that his win marked a Tea Party "revolution" in Texas.

KVUE News interview with
Paul Sadler, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate

Pointing to the relatively small group of 1.1 million voters who cast Republican primary runoff ballots, Sadler believes a high turnout general election in November could paint a different picture.

Cruz captured only 631,316 (56.8%) statewide votes in the runoff, out of 13,065,425 registered voters and a total Voting Age Population of 18,279,737 Texans. Only 1.4 million people voted in the May 29 Republican primary where Cruz received only 480,558 votes.

(2012 Primary Turnout by VAP)

Sadler told KVUE News that he believes Cruz's Tea Party insurgency is already causing some more moderate Republicans to consider crossing over in the general election.

"We're raising money. Our money has started coming in very rapidly," Sadler said. "In fact, I started getting calls Tuesday afternoon -- a lot from Republicans wanting to donate to the campaign, get involved in the campaign."

When it comes to the reality of pulling off an upset in the one of the nation's most consistently red states, Sadler argues it isn't impossible. The East Texas native believes the numbers to pull off a Democratic win are achievable.

"I'm going to win the Hispanic vote because my policies are right. I'm going to win the African-American vote because my policies are right, and they've always supported me," said Sadler. "I won 14 out of 16 counties in East Texas, which is where I need to win. Even if I just do 45 percent, I win the United States Senate seat."

Sadler points to several issues when it comes to his opponent, including the fact the Ted Cruz was born in Canada and not a "native son" of Texas. He also takes issue with the amount of support Cruz received from out of state super PACs such as Club for Growth, national conservative radio hosts including Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity and Tea Party celebrities Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum.

"I don't want to owe anybody outside the State of Texas our Senate seat. I don't want to owe some group outside the State of Texas our Senate seat," said Sadler. "We'll all own this seat, and we won't owe it to Club for Growth or some other big super PAC; we'll answer to each other for it."

"I'm from here. I've seen the hurricanes on the coast. I've seen the wind storms and the dust storms in West Texas; I've lived through them. I've lived through the drought in Central Texas. I've seen the hot, humid days in the summer in East Texas," said Sadler. "I know this state, and that's what we need in the United States Senate. We don't need some Washington hand-picked lobbyist."

Read the full story @ KVUE News.

Paul Sadler for U.S. Senate campaign video

Pew: Obama Leads Romney By 10 Points Nationally

A new poll from the Pew Research Center finds more voters say they have an unfavorable than favorable view of Mitt Romney by a 52% to 37% margin.

A review of final pre-election surveys of voters since 1988 finds that all candidates enjoyed considerably higher personal ratings going into the final days of their campaigns than does Mitt Romney currently. Only three, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996, were not rated favorably by a majority of voters.

Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over Romney in the election contest. Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney.

This is largely unchanged from earlier in July and consistent with polling over the course of this year. But Obama holds only a four-point edge (48% to 44%) across 12 of this year’s key battleground states.

Read the full report @ Pew Research Center.