Global Warming’s Heavy Cost

As Irene takes aim on the Eastern Seaboard toward New York City, the mainstream news media should ask: what’s a “tropical” storm doing heading for the snow belt? Category 3 Storms have rarely hit Long Island since the 1800s; one was the great unnamed storm of 1938, which sent 15-foot storm waters surging through what are now multimillion-dollar seaside homes.

Normally, says Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, it’s “difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity, because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26°C (79°F) level that can support a hurricane.” The high-altitude wind shear may help knock the storm down a little this year, but the ocean temperatures won’t. They’re bizarrely high—only last year did we ever record hotter water.

“Sea surface temperatures 1° to 3°F warmer than average extend along the East Coast from North Carolina to New York. Waters of at least 26°C extend all the way to southern New Jersey, which will make it easier for Irene to maintain its strength much farther to the north than a hurricane usually can,” says Masters. “These warm ocean temperatures will also make Irene a much wetter hurricane than is typical, since much more water vapor can evaporate into the air from record-warm ocean surfaces. The latest precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrological prediction center shows that Irene could dump over eight inches of rain over coastal New England.”

Remember—this year has already seen more billion-dollar weather-related disasters than any year in U.S. history. Last year was the warmest ever recorded on planet Earth. Arctic sea ice is near all-time record lows. Record floods from Pakistan to Queensland to the Mississippi basin; record drought from the steppes of Russia to the plains of Texas. Just about the only trauma we haven’t had are hurricanes plowing into the U.S., but that’s just luck—last year was a big storm year, but they all veered out to sea. This year we’re already on letter I—which in a normal year we don’t get to until well into October. Every kind of natural system is amped up, holding more power—about ¾ of a watt extra energy per square meter of the Earth’s surface, thanks to the carbon we’ve poured into the atmosphere. This is what climate change looks like in its early stages.

But you’d never guess that anything was amiss if you asked the Obama administration. In one of those ironies of timing, Friday saw the release of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for the most contested energy project in many years, the so-called Keystone Pipeline that would connect the tar sands of northern Alberta with the Gulf of Mexico. Those tar sands are the second-biggest pool of carbon on the continent; if we tap into them in a big way, says the federal government’s premier climate scientist James Hansen, it’s “essentially game over for the climate.”

Read the full story @ The Daily Beast

Widespread Dissatisfaction With National Conditions And GOP

Pew Research Center: The public is profoundly discontented with conditions in the country, its government, political leadership and several of its major institutions. Fully 79% are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country. Even more (86%) say they are frustrated or angry with the federal government. Favorable ratings for both political parties are in negative territory and have declined since the beginning of the year.

Just 22% approve of the job performance of Republican congressional leaders, down from 36% in February. Ratings for Democratic leaders are only somewhat better (29% approve). More generally, the Republican Party's favorable rating has declined from 43% in early February to 34% currently. At 43%, the Democratic Party is viewed more favorably than the GOP, but it too was rated a bit better earlier in the year (47% in February).

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Aug. 17-21 among 1,509 adults, finds that Barack Obama's job approval rating has declined markedly since the killing of Osama bin Laden in early May.

For the first time in his presidency, significantly more disapprove than approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president (49% vs. 43%), and the margin of strong disapproval over strong approval has widened; currently, 38% strongly disapprove of Obama's job performance while 26% strongly approve.

Fewer Democrats and independents now view Obama as a strong leader than did so in May (down 10 points, eight points, respectively).

Democrats also want Obama to get tougher in his dealings with congressional Republicans. Currently, 57% of Democrats say Obama should challenge the Republicans more often, while 32% say he is handling relations with the GOP about right. In early April, just 39% of Democrats said Obama should do more to challenge Republicans and 47% said he was handling things about right.

The better news for Obama is that he continues to be seen by majorities as someone who stands up for what he believes in (71%), as caring (63%) and trustworthy (59%). Moreover, his 43% job approval rating, while much lower than his rating just a few months ago, is relatively strong given the widespread dissatisfaction with national conditions, increasingly negative views of the economy, and broad distrust of government. And Obama’s approval rating continues to be much higher than those for congressional leaders of both parties.

Obama continues to run even in a 2012 match up against a generic Republican presidential candidate. Currently, 43% of registered voters say they would like to see Obama reelected while 40% would prefer a Republican. That is little changed from a month ago (41% Obama, 40% Republican), but in May Obama held an 11-point lead in the generic ballot.

Voters remain unimpressed by the GOP field. As was the case in late May, prior to the Ames straw poll and Rick Perry’s entry into the presidential race, only about a quarter of voters (26%) say they have an excellent or good impression of the possible GOP candidates. Most (64%) say as a group the candidates are only fair or poor.

Troubled Economy Top Story For Public And Media

Pew Research Center August 23, 2011: Americans focused most closely last week on news about the nation’s troubled economy amid concerns about the stalled recovery and fears of a possible new recession.

About four-in-ten (42%) say they followed reports about the condition of the U.S. economy more closely than any other news. That is three times the number saying their top story was news about the candidates for the 2012 presidential election (14%), according to the latest weekly News Interest Index survey, conducted Aug. 18-21 among 1,007 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

Economic news topped coverage as well, accounting for a quarter of the newshole (25%), according to a separate analysis by the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ). News about the 2012 elections made up 13% of all news coverage.

Melding Economic and Political News

Economic story lines top the public’s news interest. At the same time, the debate over what the federal government can or should do to help the economy has become a key issue in the 2012 race for the White House.

More than four-in-ten (44%) say they followed news about the economy very closely last week, approaching the year’s high of 49%, while 42% say this was the news they followed most closely. Another 12% say they very closely followed news about the debate among European leaders over how to address the region’s debt crisis. This was the top story for 4% and accounted for 3% of coverage.

More than a quarter (27%) say they very closely followed news about candidates for the 2012 presidential elections, up from 19% the previous week and a high point for the year so far. With Texas Gov. Rick Perry stepping up his campaign for the GOP nomination and President Obama making a campaign-style bus trip, election news made up 13% of coverage, which was little changed from 15% the previous week, when Michele Bachmann won the Republican straw poll in Iowa and Perry officially entered the race.

Coverage and interest have both increased since early August. And, as the economic news has worsened, the GOP contenders have focused their criticism on Obama’s efforts to improve the situation. Perry made news last week with blunt criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.

There are no partisan differences in attention to news about the economy with 48% of Republicans, 45% of Democrats and 47% of independents saying they followed economic news very closely. Republicans and Democrats also express similar interest in news about the 2012 elections: 36% of Republicans and 30% of Democrats followed this news very closely. Just more than two-in-ten independents (22%) say the same.

ThinkProgress: The Mess In Texas — Debunking Rick Perry’s ‘Texas Miracle’

ThinkProgress video

Having only entered the race last week, Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) has already jumped to the top of the GOP presidential field.

Fueling his momentum is the so-called “Texas miracle” — the myth that Perry’s governorship has led Texas to weather the recession better than other states, maintaining a healthy economy and brisk job creation.

According a the video produced by Think Progress, these claims are often built on incomplete analysis, or by cherry picking statistics while overlooking other relevant factors that fill in the full picture, which is a much more mixed and middling economic performance than he and his supporters would like you to believe.

National Science Foundation: No Evidence Supporting 'Climategate' Allegations

Making unsubstantiated allegations against thousands of climate scientists, many in his own state of Texas, Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) claims that climate science is a “contrived phony mess” based on “so-called science” in a “secular carbon cult.” Speaking at a Politics and Eggs breakfast in Bedford, New Hampshire Wednesday August 17, 2012 Gov. Perry further said, “There are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data..."

In contrast to Perry's unsubstantiated allegations, three major UK investigations previously exonerated the so called "Climate-Gate" scientists of any wrongdoing. Pennsylvania State University also conducted its own investigation of "Climate-Gate" allegations against its own climatologist Michael Mann and dismissed them lacking any substance of fact.

Now, this week, the National Science Foundation has closed its investigation into Penn State climatologist Michael Mann after finding no evidence of scientific misconduct related to his research.

No direct evidence has been presented that indicates the subject fabricated the raw data he used for his research or falsified his results.

National Science Foundation
Inspector General report

Climate Daily: It is the latest in a string of investigations to exonerate scientists involved in the so-called "Climategate" email scandal.

Mann was a central figure in the fracas, where a sampling of correspondence from climate scientists purloined from a computer server at the University of East Anglia in Britain supposedly showed climate scientists colluding to fabricate data and smear critics.

But a successive series of investigations and inquiries since the emails were released in 2009 have exonerated the scientists. The final conclusion from the NSF's Office of Inspector General is no different [PDF; enter Case No. A09120086].

"No direct evidence has been presented that indicates the subject fabricated the raw data he used for his research or falsified his results," the report concludes.

Gov. Perry Struggles To Defend Abstinence-Only Sex Ed

After spending more federal abstinence-only education money than any other state in the country over the last decade, Gov. Rick Perry's Texas is left with the highest teen birth rate and fourth-highest teen pregnancy rate in the country.

Listen to Gretch Sanders of KUT News report on Texas teen pregnancy

Texas accounts for 8 percent of the U.S. population, but its teen pregnancies accounted for 11 percent ($1.2 billion) of the $10.9 billion cost to U.S. taxpayers in 2008. Of those 2008 costs federal funds paid 57 percent and state and local taxes the remaining 43 percent through Medicaid and other support programs. After the Republican controlled Texas legislature cut Texas Department of State Health Services and Medicaid funding in the 2011-13 state budget, teen mothers and their babies now have few support options.

According to the Austin American-Statesman, Texas received almost $18 million in federal "abstinence-only" funding in 2007, matched by $3 million in state funds in that year. But, by the summer of 2010, Texas was choosing to pass on $4.4 million in federal funds aimed at comprehensive abstinence-plus with fact-based safe-sex education for adolescents in the state, The Texas Tribune reported. The Texas Health and Human Services Executive Commissioner Tom Suehs consulted with Gov. Perry's office before deciding to pass on the federal sex education funds.

Last October, The Tribune's Evan Smith asked Texas Gov. Rick Perry why almost all Texas school districts focus on abstinence-only education when it doesn't to produce results. The only answer Gov. Perry would give is, "Abstinence works... it is the best form to teach our children."

According to the Texas Freedom Network, over 96 percent of Texas school districts taught abstinence-only in sex education classes in 2008.

When George W. Bush became president in 2001, he was a vocal proponent of abstinence-only sex education programs.

Bush increased federal spending on abstinence-only education in U.S. schools, with the hope that it would reach $320 million a year. Federal abstinence-only education funding reached a maximum level of approximately $214 million per year before Bush left office in 2009. (graph)

Pres. Obama's 2010 budget cut federal abstinence-only sex education funding and called for $164 million in funding for a new fact-based teen sex education and pregnancy prevention initiative. The switch from "abstinence-only" to fact-base "abstinence-plus" programs included competitive grants for evidence-based programs, research and evaluation, and an authorization for $50 million in new mandatory teen pregnancy prevention grants to states, tribes, and territories. The budget eliminated funding for Community-Based Abstinence Education and the mandatory Title V Abstinence Education program.

Texas Teachers Blame Rick Perry For Increased Class Sizes

HuffPo: Texas students and teachers went back to school Monday, 10 days after the man they cite as the cause of their schools' funding-related woes announced he was running for president.

According to algebra and physics teacher Patrick Frasier, Gov. Rick Perry's (R) school budget cuts led to massive back-to-school confusion. In fact, until recently, Frasier wasn't even sure he could return to class this school year.

"All first-year teachers in my district were cut no matter what," he said. The bulk of them were hired back, but not before they polished their resumes. "We had no idea until the very end what was really going to happen," Frasier said.

Frasier said he switched from majoring in engineering to teaching at the University of Texas because he felt education was important work. He now teaches in San Antonio's Northside Independent School District.

He went back to class Monday and immediately noticed changes. Overall, he had 30 more students spread between his six classes than he had the year before.

"There's been a lot of talk about how this is the new normal," he said, referring to Perry's statements on school funding. "We're told we should get used to constant budget cuts."

Education observers worry that the massive funding cuts coming out of the most recent legislative session leave Texas schools at the top of a steep precipice. Under Perry's veto threat, the legislature chose not to pay for student enrollment growth, instead underfunding education by $5.5 billion -- despite access to the $9.4 billion in the state's reserve fund.

HOT HOT HOT! Austin Breaks Heat Record

Today Austin’s temps will soar back into the 100′s for our 69th day this year of over 100 degrees.

This will break a record that has stood since 1925 for the most days over 100 degrees, as we begin another round of heat advisories lasting through the weekend of 100+ degree weather. Since we’re going to not just be breaking the record, but adding several more days onto it (to a total of at least 73 or 74- assuming this is the last hot pattern we have in the next month), we may want to ask ourselves what is going on?

Drought map as of Aug 16, 2012

Well, we are faced with a La Nina weather pattern, bringing hot, dry weather to the Lonestar state. La Ninas have happened before and they’ll happen again- as evidence by the 86 year old record of 68 days of 100+ heat. For it to be hot in Texas in the summer is normal, but it’s not normal for it to be this hot for this many days.

Which brings us to climate change. Scientists theorizing about climate change decades ago predicted exactly what we are seeing now: slight upticks in temperature giving us more slightly hotter days. So, a day that would normally be 98 or 99 is now 101 or 102 due to the radiative blanket of the greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.

The Liberals’ Tea Party

Democracy for America has joined with Van Jones' new American Dream organization to promote nationwide community organizing activities -- at town halls, at their district offices, everywhere -- starting with a "Contract for the American Dream." As Netroots Nation 2011 keynote speaker last June Jones delivered fiery speech where he said of the politics of the hard right, “I’ve had all I can stand! I can't stands no more!” - invoking the old “Popeye” cartoons .

Listen to NPR's All Things Considered segment on former Obama Adviser Van Jones "Brews A Different Tea Party"

Jones envisions the new American Dream movement as a left-wing alternative to the Tea Party. Launched at a July 23 event in New York City, the American Dream Movement aims to restore the fight for economic justice to the center of progressive politics.

On Aug. 9, the movement put out its crowd-sourced “Contract for the American Dream,” a 10-point economic manifesto that called for new investments in education and infrastructure; higher taxes for corporations, Wall Street and the wealthy; and curbs on lobbyists. The contract was created by over 120,000 grassroots progressives working together at house parties nationwide in July and it includes ten featured goals to rebuild America:

Perry Fed Up With His Book "Fed Up?"

Texas Governor-turned-Presidential candidate Rick Perry is already fed up with his controversial political book "Fed Up " published just last November. Fed Up is a 240-page argument for ten amendment states' rights, which argues that everything from child labor laws to the Clean Air Act to Medicare violates the Constitution and states' rights. As it turns out, the many outlandish ideas Perry argues in his book are unpopular with a large portion of voters — so Perry’s campaign is trying to say Perry doesn't really believe the augments he wrote in his book.

MySanAntonio.com: Few phenomena are more depressing than watching the national media ramp up to speed on a subject with which you are somewhat familiar. The shotgun vetting of Texas Gov. Rick Perry fits that bill.