Thursday, March 11, 2010

Democratic Party of Collin County Convention

The Democratic Party of Collin County will convene its County Convention, the kick-off event for the general election season, on Saturday, March 20th, beginning at 10:30 a.m. at the Plano Centre, located at 2000 E. Spring Creek Parkway in Plano, Tx. [map] All local Democrats are welcome to attend. For more information - click here.

* Must be elected as a Delegate to the County Convention by your Precinct Convention on March 2nd to vote.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Dems Lead In Poll, But GOP More Enthusiastic

In mid-term elections, enthusiasm matters and Democrats, particularly young Democrats, are not very enthusiastic about the 2010 mid-term election, according to Gallup's latest polling. The poll shows Democrats are ahead in the generic ballot preference, but Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are much less likely to help get out the vote or vote themselves than their GOP counterparts in the November 2010 general election:
Democrats lead Republicans by a slight 47% to 44% margin when registered voters are asked which party's congressional candidate they would support in their district "if the elections for Congress were being held today." At the same time, Gallup's inaugural weekly tracking update on the 2010 elections shows Republicans with a distinct advantage over Democrats in terms of enthusiasm about voting this year.

(click on photo for larger image)

That enthusiasm gap, measured for the first time since the 2008 election in this Gallup poll, is a real problem for Democrats:
There are significant differences in enthusiasm by party, with an 18-point "very enthusiastic" gap between Republicans and Republican-leaning independents on the one hand, and Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents on the other.
Only 20% of voters age 18-29 are very enthusiastic. Obama received a blowout 66% of the vote among the 18-29 year old age group in 2008, compared to McCain's 33% of that vote. The youth also voted 63% for House Democrats in 2008 -- Young voters not only voted for Obama at the top of the ballot, they also voted down ballot or straight ticket for other Democratic candidates. In 2010 it's the young Republicans who are more likely to GOTV.

If you don't deliver for the base, the base isn't motivated to delver for you. The Democratic base is having a difficult time getting enthusiastic about Democrats, who were elected in 2006 and 2008 on a "change" platform, showing no fight for real transforming change.

Democratic leaders in the White House, U.S. House and particularly the U.S. Senate might want to think about giving their base voters something to get enthusiastic about. Maybe a health care reform signing ceremony in the Rose Garden, perhaps? It’s hard to picture these enthusiasm numbers getting worse for Dems, but imagine if reform failed!

Washington Post's Ezra Klein explains the reconciliation process, that Democrats now plan to use to pass health care reform, in the following March 8, 2010 video of The Colbert Report. "Americans don't want health care reform jammed down their throats - unless it's first battered and deep fat-fried," says Stephen Colbert.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

2010 Primary Voter Turnout In Collin Co.

Updated March 3, 2010 at 1:48 A.M.
Former Houston Mayor Bill White defeated six other candidates Tuesday March 2, 2010 to become the Democratic nominee for Texas governor, giving the party its best hope in years at again putting a Democrat in the Texas Governor's Mansion.

2010 Primary Early Vote Totals
Through Friday Feb. 26
County Party Cumulative
In-Person &
Mail Voters
Collin Rep 27,078 28,068
Collin Dem 2,658 2,699
The 2010 Collin County Republican primary early voting totals exceeded that party's 2008 record early vote tally of 24,234 ballots cast. The total early and election day Republican primary vote tally in 2008 was 51,887 ballots cast.

Adding in the Election Day vote tally to early voting totals -- the Collin County Republican party topped its 2008 record turnout, albeit with a large number of Democrats crossing over to vote against Rick Perry. An additional 29,471 people turned out to vote in the Collin County Republican primary on election day to boost the final Republican primary total to 57,539 votes cast.

An additional 3,528 people turned out in Collin County for the Democratic Primary on election day bringing the final Democratic Party of Collin County vote tally to 6,227 votes cast. For chair of the Collin Co. Democratic Party
incumbent Shawn Stevens received 3,880 (79.01%) votes and his opponent Yasin R. Ali received 1031 (20.99%) votes.

Governor - R
Pcts - 100% Votes %Votes
Perry 757,461 51.09%
Hutchison 449,632 30.33%
Medina 275,604 18.59%
Governor - D
Pcts - 100% Votes %Votes
White 516,621 75.99%
Shami 87,268 12.84%
Alvarado 33,708 4.96%
Aguado 19,556 2.88%
Glenn 9,852 1.45%
Dear 6,574 0.97%
Locke 6,298 0.93%
Lt. Gov. - D
Pcts - 100% Votes %Votes
314,725 53.15%
Earle 205,057 34.63%
Katz 72,367 12.22%
Land Comm. - D
Pcts - 100% Votes %Votes
Uribe 292,486 51.72%
Burton 273,034 48.28%
Ag. Comm. - D
Pcts - 100% Votes %Votes
Gilbert 310,762 52.32%
Friedman 283,249 47.68%
Railroad Comm. - R
Pcts - 100% Votes %Votes
Porter 732,065 60.70%
Carrillo 474,067 39.30%
Supreme Court of Tx Pl. 9 - R
Pcts - 100% Votes %Votes
Guzman 720,861 65.27%
Vela 383,642 34.73%
Supreme Court of Tx Pl. 3 - R
Pcts - 100% Votes %Votes
Green 212,642 18.94%
Lehrmann 204,466 18.22%
Moseley 203,548 18.13%
Simmons 202,426 18.03%
Brown 187,639 16.72%
Strange 111,718 9.95%
State Board of Ed. Dist. 9 - R
Pcts - 100% Votes %Votes
Ratliff 58,388 50.37%
McLeroy 57,528 49.63%
U.S. House Dist. 4 - R
Pcts - 100% Votes %Votes
Ralph Hall 38,543 57.23%
Clark 20,091 29.83%
Cooper 3,616 5.37%
Hall 3,134 4.65%
Gigliotti 1,021 1.52%
Kowert 939 1.39%
Texas House Dist. 66 - R
House Dist. 66: Runoff
Pcts - 100% Votes %Votes
Jackson 5,616 41.05%
Taylor 4,581 33.48%
Richard 3,485 25.47%
The table at right gives the full results for a few state wide and a couple of local high interest contested races. For full Democratic and Republican Primary election results reported by the Collin County elections office - click here.
Election results were delayed Tuesday night in Collin County, where officials reported extremely heavy voting county wide. People waited in line more than an hour to vote in the Republican Primary after the polls closed at 7 p.m., according to reports from election officials.

Voter turnout in Collin County’s primary elections Tuesday was twice what officials expected, leading to long lines, a slow count and frustration among voters and candidates. (More DMN)
When the 2010 Collin County primary voter turnout data is fully analyzed, we will likely find that one quarter to one third of the Republican primary votes will have been cast by voters with a Democratic Party voting history, as was the case in the first week of early voting in Travis County:
In the largest Republican counties, the GOP turnout through Sunday February 21 was more than 5,000 votes higher than in the 2008 presidential primary when the GOP set its record 1.3 million voter turnout. Turnout was up in Harris, Tarrant, Travis, Collin, Denton and Williamson counties, but down in Dallas, Bexar, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties from the 2008 vote.

Almost 28 percent of the voters in the Republican primary in Travis County during the first week of early voting also voted in the 2008 primary election between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to figures from Democratic pollster Jeff Smith of Opinion Analysts Inc. []
Why did so many Democrats vote in the Republican Primary this year? The most common comment heard from Republican voting Democrats was that most believe Bill White had a lock on winning the Democratic Primary against Farouk Shami, so they decided to hedge their bet with a vote against Rick Perry. Most Democrats seem to have the idea that they could keep Perry off of the November 2010 General Election Ballot by helping KBH defeat Perry in the primary.

Democrats picked up this "defeat Perry now" narrative from many sources over the last few months. Here is an excerpt from a post in the The Prairie Fire Journal blog:
Texas Democrats have an opportunity to give Rick Perry an eight-month head start on his packing. If enough Democrats will crossover and vote in the Republican Primary on March 2, there's an excellent chance that Rick Perry will be knocked out of the 2010 governor's race before it even begins.

Democrats can do this. Knockout Perry at the get-go and that will dishearten his far-right base. If Hutchison wins the Republican Primary, the right won't be as enthusiastic about getting out the vote in November. By using this strategy, whether the Republicans win or the Democrats win the governorship, we will know for certain that Rick Perry will be gone.

[DBCC Editors note: Now that Perry has won the primary with 52% of the vote on the first round, after so many Democrats cross over to vote against him, will the right be more energized than ever and will Democrats be the ones feeling demoralized. No! -- I think Texas Democrats will be ready for a fight come November 2010.]
This blog originally started hearing this defeat Perry now narrative plant some time ago separately from Hutchison supporters and Shami supporters. The idea for Hutchison was that she could boost her numbers with Democratic votes without being seen to publicly court the Democratic vote. Overtly courting Democrats for their vote would have created problems for KBH as she tried to actively court conservative and tea bag voters. Shami also benefited from the cross over vote because Democrats who are more likely to cross over to vote in the Republican primary are the Democrats who are more likely to vote for Bill White. Suppressing the Bill White vote in the Democratic Primary improved Shami's chances to win against White -- although it seems not by very much.

The dubious defeat Perry now strategy has failed. Perry, Texas' longest-serving governor, had 51 percent of the vote compared to Hutchinson's 31 percent. GOP party activist Debra Medina, a favorite among many tea party voters, had about 18 percent. This is after Rasmussen polling had Perry pretty close to that 50% goal line just before election day.
A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Republican Primary voters found Perry leading Senate Kay Bailey Hutchison 48% to 27%, with Tea Party activist Debra Medina earning 16% of the vote. Nine percent (9%) of Texas GOP voters remain undecided.

The Rasmussen survey of likely voters also showed Rick Perry leading Bill White 47% to 41% in a head to head match up, while KBH led Bill White 47% to 38% in a gubernatorial match up. Three weeks ago, KBH had a 49% to 36% lead against White.
Everyone should remember that Perry and KBH have been campaigning for the governor's office for more than a year now. Bill White has only been running for the governor's office since early December 2009. White is well funded and he has put together one of the best statewide Democratic campaign organizations since Ann Richards ran for governor. White has an excellent chance to easily overtake Perry between now and November 2010.

White, who earned high marks for his city's response to the Hurricane Katrina evacuation, wisely spent the prime season listening to voter's real concerns about the future of Texas as the Republican Primary candidates chased each other to the extreme right. He used the time to air television ads introducing himself to a statewide audience and generally kept his campaign on a positive path. White has been running a well managed general election campaign since he announced for governor in early December.

Collin Co. Cumulative Early Vote Totals
Date Daily
Vote Total
0 0 0 0 0
Tue 2/16/2010 9 1,727 1,727 149 149
Wed 2/17/2010 9 1,581 3,308 187 336
Thu 2/18/2010 9 1,595 4,903 172 508
Fri 2/19/2010 9 1,927 6,830 187 695
Sat 2/20/2010 12 2,320 9,150 231 926
Sun 2/21/2010 5 781 9,931 99 1,025
Mon 2/22/2010 12 1,976 11,907 199 1,224
Tue 2/23/2010 12 2,269 14,176 214 1,438
Wed 2/24/2010 12 2,713 16,889 257 1,695
Thu 2/25/2010 12 3,547 20,436 374 2,069
Fri 2/26/2010 12 6,642 27,078 589 2,658