Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Is The GOP Shrinking In Collin Co. Like It Is Nationally?
The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll shows just 21 percent of those surveyed identified themselves as Republicans and the latest NBC/WSJ (original poll here) shows only one in five (20%) adults self-identifies as Republican.
That's the lowest since the fall of 1983, when just 19 percent identified themselves as Republicans. From a high-water mark of 35 percent in the fall of 2003, Republicans have slid steadily to their present low state in the several recent party identification polls.
The Associated Press reports that a polling firm with close ties to the GOP found in its latest survey that the public holds greater confidence in Democrats than in Republicans in handling most of the issues. Democrats were favored by a margin of 61 percent to 29 percent on education; 59 percent to 30 percent on health care and 59 percent to 31 percent on energy. Democrats were even viewed with more confidence in handling taxes.
According to the Pew Research data Republican identification has sunk by more than five points in all four regions of the U.S. Just one in five voters in the Northeast call themselves Republican, the party's worst region, while 25 percent of Southerners say they are Republican, the region where the GOP performs best.
But these Republican losses have not translated into substantial Democratic gains. Voters who once called themselves Republicans are not ready to call themselves Democrats.
So far in 2009, 35% of adults nationwide identify as Democrats, about the same as in 2008 (36%). While GOP identification has fallen seven points since 2004, the Democrats have gained only two points over that period. Instead, a growing number of Americans describe themselves as independents, 36% in 2009 compared with just 32% in 2008 and 30% in 2004.
Looking at the individual monthly surveys since December suggests that both political parties are facing declining membership in the wake of an engaging election cycle.
In the Pew Research Center's April 2009 survey, 33% identified as Democrats, down from 39% in December 2008. Over the same period, the share calling themselves Republicans has fallen from 26% to 22%. By contrast, the number of independents has risen from 30% in December to 39% now. While it is not unusual for Republican and Democratic identification to grow over the course of an election and subside afterward, the magnitude of these changes is noteworthy.
The pattern of partisan change in recent years has been remarkably consistent across the nation. Since 2004, the GOP has lost at least five points in party identification in every region of the nation. Meanwhile, Democratic identification in 2009 is either at or just slightly above 2004 levels.
It is just my opinion, but I think the trends described in these national polls also describe what is happening in Collin Co. and Texas. If so, then Democratic candidates in Collin County can appeal to newly "independent" voters not by waving the Democratic Party flag, but by talking sensibly about the issues. That's what the GOP is planning to do.
The GOP is set to launch a new rebranding effort to revive the image of the Republican Party. The new initiative, called the National Council for a New America, will involve an outreach by a group of GOP'ers, ranging from 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain to Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor and the younger brother of President George W. Bush. The group is planning town halls around the country, to discuss issues like health care, the economy, energy and national security.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Gov. Rick Perry Asks Feds For Help With Swine Flu.
Gov. Rick Perry today in a precautionary measure requested the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provide 37,430 courses of antiviral medications from the Strategic National Stockpile to Texas to prevent the spread of swine flu.Dallas Morning News: So far, 3 'probable' swine flu cases have been found in Dallas County:
The three - a 24-year-old, a 7-year-old and a 3-month-old – have not been hospitalized, and the cases do not appear related, said officials, who also began urging bus travelers arriving from Mexico to seek medical help immediately if they feel sick.on Sunday, the White House announced a public health emergency, a step officials described as a routine measure designed to help ease the distribution of vaccines. Twenty cases of the disease have been confirmed in five states, including two in San Antonio, though no one has died of it here.
In Mexico, Churches were shut down in Mexico City and soldiers were distributing surgical masks to try to stop the spread of the disease.
Long Time Alternate Election Judge At Carpenter Park Early Voting Location Has Passed
Jordan was again scheduled to serve as the Carpenter Park Recreation Center Alternate Election Judge for the May 9, 2009 municipal election early voting period starting, Monday April 27, 2009.
Jordan, apparently in good health and high spirits, was testing the voting equipment at Carpenter Park just the day before his death to make sure everything was operational for the opening day of early voting.
Those of us who worked with Jordan at Texas Instruments in his capacity as the Manager of Texas Instrument's Computer Center Design/Support Group and as Alternate Election Judge for Collin County Elections hold him in the highest esteem.
Jordan, a friend, colleague and dedicated public servant, will be missed by the community and all who knew him.
Race To Fill Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R) U.S. Senate Seat
The problem is nobody, with the possible exception of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, knows when or if she will vacate her Senate seat to run against incumbent Gov. Rick Perry for the Governor's Mansion.
Hutchison might resign from the senate by the end of this year, or it could be after the March 2010 Republican primary election, in which she hopes to make Perry a lame duck. Or, she could wait to resign from the Senate on Jan. 1, 2011, the day she is sworn in as governor, assuming she wins the 2010 primary and general elections.
Senator Hutchison has publicly denied reports that she will not resign from the Senate while running for Governor, and has stated that she may resign as early as late 2009. (See "Senate Run May Spur Dewhurst to Pick Up the Pace," p. B-8, Austin American Statesman, March 26,2009 / also see Did Hutchison Make Promise to Set Up May '10 Elections Months Ago?)
In contrast to that denial, fearful that a special election for U.S. Senate could result in a Democratic victory, Congressional Republicans appear to be pressuring Hutchison not to resign unless and until she is elected governor. Republican insiders have been indicating Hutchison will not resign at all if she is unsuccessful in her bid for the Governor's office.
Under Texas law, if Hutchison resigns earlier than shortly before the November 2010 election, Rick Perry, a Republican, would appoint a short-term replacement for Hutchison until a special election can be held.Two Democrats — Mayor Bill White and former state Comptroller John Sharp — and four Republicans have announced their candidacies and set up fundraising committees over the past few months. While six candidates have thrown their hats in the ring, none know for sure when or if their names might appear on an election ballot - it all depends on when Hutchison resigns.
A special election would likely be held in November 2009 if Hutchison resigns her U.S. Senate seat before September 28, 2009. If she resigns late in 2009, the special election for her senate seat likely could not be scheduled to coincide with the March 2010 primary and would instead be scheduled for May 2010.
If Hutchison does wait to resign until about early September 2010, the special election for her open Senate seat could be held concurrently with the November 2010 general election, ensuring maximum turnout for any Republican senatorial candidate.
If Hutchison doesn't resign until after the November 2010 general election, assuming she is elected governor, she could theoretically name her own short term replacement and call a special election for her Senate seat for May 2011.
Of coarse, if Hutchison wins the March 2010 primary and doesn't resign by election day November 2010, and a Democrat is elected as the new Texas Governor in the November 2010 election, that would deny Democrats the opportunity to challenge her Republican Senate seat until the 2012 election cycle.
Candidates: (Left to right) Houston Mayor Bill White (D), former State Comptroller John Sharp (D), Railroad Commission Chairman Michael Williams (R), State Sen. Florence Shapiro (R), former Secretary of State Roger Williams (R) and Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones (R)
Potential Candidates: (Left to right) Rep. Kay Granger (R), Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R), US Rep. Joe Barton (R), Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R), Attorney General Greg Abbott (R) and TX State Senator Leticia Van de Putte (D-San Antonio)
So far, the Texas Governor's race has been a battle between two Republicans. Conventional wisdom says that if Perry manages to pull off an unexpected upset in the primary, he's actually vulnerable in the general election. (Perry is the most unpopular politician in the state of Texas, and probably the least popular Governor in memory.)
Conventional wisdom also says that if Hutchison wins the primary match up against Perry, she will likely skate to the Governorship in the November 2010 general election. Things are looking a little less certain for Republicans to retain the Texas governor's mansion, even if Hutchison does win the primary, now that long time Texas Democrat Tom Schieffer seems ready to join the Texas governor's race.
Tom Schieffer is a former State Representative, former partner in the Texas Rangers, brother to Face the Nation moderator Bob Schieffer, and Bush-era Ambassador to Australia and Japan.
Schieffer, a lifelong Democrat, did endorse G.W. Bush for the offices of both Governor and President, but he supported Barack Obama for the 2008 primary and general election, and he supported Democrat Chris Bell in the 2006 Governor's race. Conventional wisdom suggests that Schieffer can attract not only Democrats, but Independents and even some moderate Republicans.
Research 2000 Texas Poll of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections conducted from April 20 through April 22, 2009 provides a current snapshot of candidates for the U.S. Senate and Texas Governor races:Dallas Morning News: "We are experiencing a crisis of leadership," said Schieffer, a former U.S. ambassador under President George W. Bush who plans to run as a Democrat.
He dismissed his ties to the former Republican president, saying Texans want leaders who are less partisan and more effective in dealing with issues like education and health care.
"Our politics have become less substantive, less thoughtful, less creative and less innovative," said Schieffer, 61.
Favorable / Unfavorable
RACE | VERY FAV | FAV | UNFAV | VERY UNFAV | NO OPINION | |
PERRY (R) | GOV | 17 | 34 | 24 | 19 | 6 |
HUTCHINSON (R) | GOV | 27 | 37 | 16 | 13 | 7 |
SCHIEFFER (D) | GOV | 9 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 63 |
ABBOTT (R) | SEN | 21 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 29 |
DEWHURST (R) | SEN | 15 | 24 | 17 | 14 | 30 |
WILLIAMS (R) | SEN | 13 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 42 |
SHAPIRO (R) | SEN | 11 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 48 |
SHARP (D) | SEN | 17 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 40 |
WHITE (D) | SEN | 16 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 44 |
OBAMA (D) | -- | 20 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 2 |