Thursday, December 18, 2008

Ron Kirk To Be U.S. Trade Representative In Obama Cabinet

Fort Worth Star-Telegram
By Maria Recio
WASHINGTON — Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, initially a front-runner for transportation secretary, has opted to be U.S. trade representative in the Obama administration, sources said.

The announcement of the Cabinet-level position could come as soon as today in Chicago, where President-elect Barack Obama has scheduled a morning news conference.

The prestigious position, which comes with the title of ambassador

Read the full story at star-telegram.com

Those born in Texas, generally stay in Texas

Fort Worth Star-Telegram
By Anna M. Tinsley
There really is no place like home for true Texans.

For now, 75.8 percent of adults born in the Lone Star State still live here — the highest percentage of any state keeping its native residents — making Texas the nation’s "stickiest" state, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of census data released Wednesday.

But it's not just sentiment keeping nearly 24 million people in Texas, where "y'all" and "howdy" are as much fixtures as the deep-rooted cowboy traditions, love of football and pride in the fact that nearly everything is bigger.

"It's jobs, jobs, jobs," said Karl Eschbach, the state demographer at the University of Texas at San Antonio. "With the job creation in the state of Texas, you don't need to leave the state for employment.

"Why would anybody want to leave Texas?" Eschbach asked. "Texans love their state."

Others do, too.

Between 2005 and 2007, nearly 1.7 million new people moved to Texas, but only 1.3 million moved out, which means Texas is keeping more people than it's losing, said D'Vera Cohn, a senior writer with the Pew Research Center who co-authored the study.

Read the full story at star-telegram.com

Another Republican Running For Hutchison's Senate Seat

Michael Williams, the Republican Chairman of the Texas Railroad Commission, who was re-elected in the November 2008 election, and one of the most prominent African-American Republicans in the nation, released a statement announcing his candidacy for Senator Hutchison's Senate seat.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Houston Mayor Bill White To Run For Hutchison’s Seat

TheHill.com
By Reid Wilson
Posted: 12/16/08


The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has scored its first recruiting victory in Houston Mayor Bill White, perhaps the highest-profile Democrat in Texas. White decided over the weekend to run for Hutchison’s seat. Hutchison has filed the committee paperwork for a 2010 gubernatorial run. The filing does not commit her to the race and her Senate seat is not up until 2012, and Texas law does not require her to resign from the Senate while running for governor.

Todd Olsen, a spokesman for Hutchison’s Austin-based gubernatorial committee, told The Hill in December if Hutchison did resign from the Senate early, she would ask Gov. Rick Perry (R) to hold a special election to fill the seat. Perry also has the option of appointing an interim senator.

White’s entry gives Democrats a decent shot in one of the reddest states in the country two years after the party’s under-funded challenger to Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) clocked in at 43 percent of the vote.

Video: Mayor Bill White announces he will run for Senator Hutchison's Senate seat.


Bill White's Campaign Website
Bill White hits the Rio Grand Valley in preparation for his Senate run

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Republican Party Looses As Democratic Party Gains

Motivated by deep religious convictions, GOP religious conservatives believe that the true "family values" moral code for society can be found only in religion and that "true moral code" should be enforced by the law of the land. This explains their unyielding efforts to encode in laws and constitutional amendments, at the state and federal levels, government mandates of their particular interpretation of "family values." As religious conservatives have increasingly dominated the Republican party they have forced out almost all moderate and "traditional Republican" elements of the party. Politically moderate white Christians are not necessarily motivated by "family values" issues and liberal white Christians outright reject the concept of encoding "family values" moral code in laws and constitutional amendments.

The modern Republican Party has moved far from the conservative principals defined by the legendary Conservative Republican Senator Barry Goldwater who said:
"By maintaining the separation of church and state, the United States has avoided the intolerance which has so divided the rest of the world with religious wars... Can any of us refute the wisdom of Madison and the other framers? Can anyone look at the carnage in Iran, the bloodshed in Northern Ireland, or the bombs bursting in Lebanon and yet question the dangers of injecting religious issues into the affairs of state? "The religious factions will go on imposing their will on others unless the decent people connected to them recognize that religion has no place in public policy. They must learn to make their views known without trying to make their views the only alternatives."

Goldwater also said: "I believe a woman has a right to an abortion. That's a decision that's up to the pregnant woman, not up to the pope or some do-gooders or the Religious Right.... There is no place in this country for practicing religion in politics."
Lincoln Chafee quit the Republican Party and has become an Independent -- and many Republicans -- such as former Republican Congressman Jim Leach and Republican philanthropist and international lawyer Rita Hauser among others -- have not officially left the Republican party, but did organize behind Obama. Christine Todd Whitman and long term Colin Powell aide Lawrence Wilkerson want their party back. Sarah Palin helped push the Republican Party farther to the right this election – a polarization which could lead to the downfall of the party, insists Colin Powell.
"I think that in the latter months of the campaign, the party moved further to the right. Governor Palin, to some extent, pushed the party more to the right. And I think she had something of a polarizing effect when she talked about small-town values are good."
President Eisenhower's granddaughter, Susan Eisenhower, a realist/strategist, Eisenhower-style Republican has quit her grandfather's party. -- really a "wow" moment-- Read her entire statement issued on National Interest Online, a publication affiliated with the Nixon Center, but here is a clip of her statement:
I have decided I can no longer be a registered Republican.

For the first time in my life I announced my support for a Democratic candidate for the presidency, in February of this year. This was not an endorsement of the Democratic platform, nor was it a slap in the face to the Republican Party. It was an expression of support specifically for Senator Barack Obama.

I had always intended to go back to party ranks after the election and work with my many dedicated friends and colleagues to help reshape the GOP, especially in the foreign-policy arena. But I now know I will be more effective focusing on our national and international problems than I will be in trying to reinvigorate a political organization that has already consumed nearly all of its moderate "seed corn."

And now, as the party threatens to trivialize what promised to be a serious debate on our future direction, it will alienate many young people who might have come into party ranks.

My decision came at the end of last week when it was demonstrated to the nation that McCain and this Bush White House have learned little in the last five years.

They mishandled what became a crisis in the Caucuses, and this has undermined U.S. national security. At the same time, the McCain camp appears to be comfortable with running an unworthy Karl Rove-style political campaign. Will the McCain operation, and its sponsors, do anything to win?
Even as people have become disenfranchised from the Republican Party and shift party party allegiances, the share of Americans who self-describe their political views as liberal, conservative or moderate has remained stable over the years. Only about one-in-five Americans currently call themselves liberal (21%), while 38% say they are conservative and 36% describe themselves as moderate. This is virtually unchanged from recent years; when George W. Bush was first elected president, 18% of Americans said they were liberal, 36% were conservative and 38% considered themselves moderate according to a November 2008 Pew Research Center Report.

While the relative proportion of liberals, conservatives and moderates has little changed the proportion of voters identifying with the Democratic Party has grown significantly since the 2004 election, and the shift has been particularly dramatic among younger voters. Fully 61% of voters ages 18 to 29 identify or lean Democratic and a comparable percentage supports Barack Obama. But Democratic gains in party affiliation among older voters since 2004 have been much more modest. Moreover, support for Obama among voters ages 50 and older is slightly lower than the share of this cohort that identifies with the Democratic Party.

In Pew surveys conducted since August of this year, 51% of all voters say they think of themselves as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, up five points from 46% during the same period in 2004. Meanwhile, the number identifying with or leaning toward the Republican Party has fallen from 45% to 41%. In this cycle, the Democratic Party enjoys a 10-point advantage in party identification, compared with a one-point edge in the fall of 2004.

The greatest gains for the Democratic Party have come among younger voters. The percentage of voters ages 18 to 29 identifying with the Democratic Party has increased from 48% in the fall of 2004 to 61% currently. Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a margin of nearly two-to-one (61% to 32%) in this age group, up from only a seven-point advantage in 2004.

Voters ages 30 to 49, a group that includes the more conservative "Generation X, "also have shifted considerably since 2004. Nearly half (49%) of voters in this age group identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, up from 43% in 2004. Democrats currently have a six-point advantage over Republicans among voters in this age group.

Overall, more whites continue to identify as Republicans than as Democrats (48% vs. 44%); this is narrower than the 52%-to-40% advantage the GOP held in 2004. Since then, Democratic Party identification has increased four points (from 40% to 44%) among white voters. (see The Incredible Shrinking Republican Base)

Notably, the balance of party identification among younger white voters has reversed, from an 11-point advantage for the GOP in 2004 to an 11-point advantage for the Democrats today.

NYT:
Southern counties that voted more heavily Republican this year than in 2004 tended to be poorer, less educated and whiter, a statistical analysis by The New York Times shows. Mr. Obama won in only 44 counties in the Appalachian belt, a stretch of 410 counties that runs from New York to Mississippi. Many of those counties, rural and isolated, have been less exposed to the diversity, educational achievement and economic progress experienced by more prosperous areas. ... The Republicans, meanwhile, have “become a Southernized party,” said Thomas Schaller, a political scientist who teaches at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. “They have completely marginalized themselves to a mostly regional party,” he said, pointing out that nearly half of the current Republican House delegation is now Southern... Less than a third of Southern whites voted for Mr. Obama, compared with 43 percent of whites nationally.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Teaching Creationism Has Evolved

Forty years ago, in Epperson v. Arkansas, the US Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional an Arkansas law that banned the teaching of evolution. “The [Arkansas] law’s effort was confined to an attempt to blot out a particular theory because of its supposed conflict with the Biblical account, literally read,” the court wrote in its decision.

The ruling was the first major judicial blow to creationists, who had largely silenced evolutionary education in many states across the country—ever since John Scopes was convicted in 1925 of the crime of teaching evolution in Tennessee’s infamous Scopes Monkey Trial.

Since Charles Darwin first put forth his idea of natural selection, the scientific community has viewed evolutionary theory as the unifying principle of biology. Among scientists, there is virtually no debate over its validity. And despite what religious fundamentalists insist, there is no credible scientific evidence backing up young earth creationism.

But instead of ending the cultural battle between religion and science, the Epperson case ignited what has been a four-decade fight to keep God out of science class. Since the Epperson v. Arkansas ruling anti-evolution laws morphed with each constitutional defeat into “equal time” laws and now “academic freedom” laws. Creationism, in trying to pass judicial muster, shape shifted into “creation science,” then into “intelligent design,” and now “strength-and-weakness” requirements.

George W. Bush's recent statement that he believes the Bible is "probably not" literally true has apparently left many Christian conservatives reeling in shock. Bush made the controversial statement during a interview on ABC's Nightline. Bush further stated in the interview, "I think that God created the Earth ... and I don't think it's incompatible with the scientific proof that there is evolution."

Now this nation will soon be led by a president who firmly embraces evolution theory—and the eight years of a Bush administration hostile to science are almost over. President-elect Barack Obama has expressed firm support for eliminating Bush administration practices of censoring government agency scientific papers, promised to lead a green technological revolution and has pledged to return the United States to its vaunted position as a leader of scientific innovation.

While an Obama presidency may spell good news for science, the truth is that he is unlikely to have much of an impact on the teaching of evolutionary theory on the ground. The Texas state Board of Education is reviewing its science standards in preparation for approval next year.

The results of the board’s decision will undoubtedly have wide repercussions. The review of the standards is to establish guidelines for textbook publishers, who are watching the process closely.

In September, writing teams had removed a requirement that had had been inserted years earlier that said students must learn the “strengths and weaknesses” of scientific theories like evolution. But earlier this month, three new reviewers with strong intelligent-design connections, including Stephen Meyer, vice president of the pro-ID Discovery Institute, were appointed by the creationist-friendly board members to look at the standards. In a new draft submitted last week, students would be required to learn “strengths and limitations” in three courses.

In addition, the new draft calls on middle school students to “discuss possible alternative explanations” for scientific concepts, opening the door for supernatural explanations like creationism.

Republican Domination of U.S. Appellate Courts

The Washington Post reports that George W. Bush has been enormously successful at placing his picks on federal appeals courts and that has led to Republican domination of most of the nation's judicial circuits. The article begins by focusing on the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals, which includes Michigan, noting a particular case where the full panel of judges overruled a ruling by a smaller appeals court panel:
Prosecutors appealed to all of the judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit. And the full court, dominated by appointees of President Bush and other Republican presidents, reversed the initial appellate ruling, saying the evidence presented by prosecutors was sufficient to merit Arnold's conviction.

Other criminal defendants, including some on death row, remain in federal prisons for the same reason: After initial appellate verdicts that their convictions or sentences were unjust, the last word came from Bush's judicial picks on the 6th Circuit. Acting in cooperation with other Republican appointees on the court, they have repeatedly organized full-court rehearings to overturn rulings by panels dominated by Democratic appointees.
When the full slate of judges in a judicial circuit agree to hear a case and possibly overturn the ruling handed down by the normal panel of three judges that hear such appeals, this is called an en banc rehearing. The numbers that demonstrate just how solidly Bush has packed the courts with Republican judges are pretty compelling:
After Bush's eight years in office, Republican-appointed majorities firmly control the outcomes in 10 of these courts, compared with seven after President Bill Clinton's tenure. They also now share equal representation with Democratic appointees on two additional courts.
That's out of a total of 13 judicial circuits (12 regular regional circuits plus the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which hears special national cases). In 2001, the political breakdown of the nation's appeals court was about even, with 77 judges appointed by Democrats, 74 by Republicans and 27 vacancies. The current breakdown is 66 Democrats, 102 Republicans and 11 vacancies.

A WaPo investigation showed that over the last five years, out of 28 cases where an en banc appeal of a ruling handed down by a primarily Democratic panel of judges was granted, the right leaning 6th circuit, reversed 17 of those rulings.

The Incredible Shrinking Republican Base

The survey, conducted by David Hill, (PDF) who operates the Houston-based Republican Hill Research firm, raises questions about whether the Republican Party might be in trouble in Texas after a decade of political dominance. Hill's survey states, in no uncertain terms, that for GOP candidates to succeed in Texas they must look beyond the party's base voters and wrap up 80 percent of independent voters that he calls the Critical Middle. Mr. Hill concludes that the party needs to move away from a hard-line focus on social conservatism and refocus on a “clear and consistent” fiscal conservatism pocketbook issues that were at the forefront of voter concerns in this year’s election – health care, jobs creation, the banking system and the economy in general and energy.

Hill warns in no uncertain terms that for Texas GOP candidates to succeed they must put primary focus on core conservative pocketbook issues to attract 80% of the "Critical Middle" independents to party candidates. Mr. Hill concludes, “This isn’t ‘optional’ - anything less means Republicans lose.”

GOP candidates need "Critical Middle" independents because well before election day 2008, a partisan shift was under way around the U.S. For more than three years starting in 2005, there has been a reduction in the number of voters who register with the Republican Party and a rise among voters who affiliate with Democrats and, almost as often, with no party at all.

In other words the demographic that current defines most of the Republican base is shrinking. Some areas of Texas, such as Collin County, lags this partisan shift trend, but Mr. Hill's research shows that Texas is as susceptible to this partisan shift as was Colorado, which turned into a blue state this election year.

As America, and many areas of Texas, becomes more diverse, the percentage of the population that makes up the Republican base has nosedived. (Source: NES Cumulative File)

Where married white Christians made up nearly 80% of the adult U.S. population in the 1950s, married white Christians now make up less than half of all voters in the United States and less than one fifth of voters under the age of 30. The Census Bureau issued a press release in the summer of 2008 that projects that by 2042, the United States will no longer be a White majority nation.

Meanwhile, the demographics of the GOP have gone in the opposite direction. (Source: NES Cumulative File)

In the 1950s, married white Christians made up just over 40% of the Republican Party -- today they make up about 90% of the party with the majority now more narrowly defining themselves as Social Conservative Christians.

Between the 1970s and the first decade of the 21st century, Republican identification among conservative married white Christians increased by 26 points, going from 64 percent to 90 percent.

During the same time period, Republican identification among moderate married white Christians increased by only five points, going from 38 percent to 43 percent and Republican identification among liberal married white Christians actually declined by 10 points, falling from 23 percent to 13 percent. Implicit in Mr. Hill's research findings is the fact that there are no more untapped Conservative married white Christians to attract into the party. As Mr. Hill suggests, the GOP must increase its support among "Critical Middle" moderate-to-liberal married white Christians who are motivated by concerns other than the standard conservative "family values" hot-button issues.

Republicans need to come to terms with the fact that shifting demographics over the last four years has caused the GOP to lose control of every level of government across the U.S.
  • After the 2004 election Republicans had a 232-202 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. After the 2008 election Democrats have a 257-178 lead. In the Senate, Republicans had a 55-45 majority after the 2004 election, which flipped to Democratic advantage of 58-42 (or maybe 59-41) after the 2008 election.
  • After the 2004 election, Republicans held 28 governorships compared with 22 for the Democrats. After the 2008 election, Democrats now hold 29 governorships compared with just 21 for the Republicans.
  • After the 2004 election, Republicans controlled the state legislature in 20 states compared with 19 Democratic-controlled states. Now, Democrats control the state legislatures of 27 states, with the Republicans controlling only 14 states.
  • And there are now over 800 more Democratic state legislators than Republicans in the country, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures Web site. Just four years ago, Democrats had a mere 10-seat edge out of more than 7,000 nationwide.
GOP dominance in the 2008 presidential election diminished to a strip of red states, primarily across the southern bible belt, as shown by this MyDD map, distorted to show electoral votes and thus population.
Hill's suggestion that the GOP should move away from a hard-line focus on social conservatism and refocus on core fiscal conservatism pocketbook issues in Texas will likely be a hard sell. Religious conservatives, which dominates the Texas GOP, become defensive at any suggestion that they or their Social Conservative "family values" agenda has had anything to do with the GOP's erosion. Indeed, religious conservatives are saying the Republican Party must refocus on a social conservatism agenda for the 2010 and 2012 elections. Both camps of conservatives seem to be saying the party is losing because it is not conservative enough, but each point to their own brand of conservatism.

The immediate future will be a bloody brawl for the soul and direction of the GOP. Will the GOP leadership define "return to core conservative beliefs" as a refocus to be a small government party of tax-cutting free-market deregulators at a time of an enormous government deficits, massive bailouts and economic crisis brought on in part by these same policies? Or, will it define "return to core religious conservative beliefs" as a refocus on a social conservatism agenda with Sarah Palin at the head of the party.

White evangelical Protestants are the most conservative Republicans: 79% describe their political views as conservative, compared with 17% who say they are moderate and just 2% who call themselves liberal. Republican white mainline Protestants and white non-Hispanic Catholics also are largely conservative (63% and 66%, respectively), but about three-in-ten in each group say their views are moderate (31% among white mainline Protestants and 30% among white Catholics).

Just consider these numbers from a post 2008 election WSJ/NBC poll: among Republicans only, the most popular person tested in the poll is the dues-paid-in-full member of the Evangelical right Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with a whopping 73%-13% favorable-unfavorable rating. On the other hand conservative columnist Kathleen Parker, who received piles of hate mail during the Presidential campaign for questioning Sarah Palin's credentials, wrote a column for the Washington Post, entitled, "Giving Up on God," makes a sustained argument that the GOP's courting of the religious vote above all has led the party dangerously astray. In that WSJ/NBC poll Palin's polling score among all groups was a net negative approval-disapproval of 35%-45% -- which means she fares poorly among both Democrats and Independents.

Texas Democrats are starting to look toward toward future campaigns and some Democrats have settled on a rallying cry, "Texas is next."

It sounds improbable for the Republican bastion that produced President Bush and served as an early laboratory for Karl Rove's hard-nosed tactics. But Texas is one of several reliably red states that are now in Democrats' sights as party strategists analyze 2008 election results that they believe show the contours of a new progressive movement that could grow and prove long-lasting.

A multi-ethnic bloc of Latinos, blacks, young people and suburban whites helped to broaden the party's reach in 2008. That new formulation of voters was evident in state exit polls and county-level election results (see map) showing that Democrats scored gains from a voting base that is growing progressively less white-married-christian than the population that helped forge Republican advantages in past elections.

Both Republican and Democratic strategists believe the large and growing Latino population in Texas remains untapped, along with a large black electorate, which could make Texas competitive with a major investment of time and money from an Obama-led Democratic Party.

The map at left shows the U.S. Congressional districts carried by Democratic candidates in the 2008 election. This shows that Democrats can win in large sections of the state.

Cuauhtemoc "Temo" Figueroa, Obama's top Latino outreach official, has commented that Texas could be taken seriously as a presidential battleground if Democrats could win statewide races there in 2010. "I don't know if it's four years or eight years off, but down the road, Texas will be a presidential battleground," Figueroa said.

Some Republican strategists like Mr. Hill warn that their party faces demographic challenges with the Latino vote growing and moving toward Democrats. Most Texas Republicans dismiss the warning that the GOP needs to worry about a long-term GOP deficit in the state. After all, Obama carried only 28 of the 254 Texas counties, only narrowly winning critical Harris county, and the McCain/Palin ticket easily carry critical Terrant, Denton and Collin counties.

County By County Presidential Voting Results

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Republican Brand Growing Weak In Texas

The Republican Party heads into the New Year with its brand tattered by the election after decisive losses in the 2008 presidential and congressional races. Such a defeat inevitably leads to introspection in party circles about its message going forward.

Actually, the Republican Party's brand image was in decline well before the 2008 election cycle. In December 2005, the Republicans and the Democrats were rated about equally nationally, with just under half of Americans viewing each party favorably. Shortly thereafter, the Republicans' favorable rating fell to 36%, and has since remained in that territory. The Democrats' favorable rating gradually improved during 2006, and has not fallen below 51% since the spring of that year.

The full results of a much-anticipated Republican Party of Texas introspection survey by the Houston-based Republican firm Hill Research were officially released on Monday. This survey of Texas voters yields much the same message as other surveys conducted around the U.S. during November 2008.

According to a November 2008 Gallup poll the Republican Party's image has gone from bad to worse over the past month, as only 34% of Americans say they have a favorable view of the party, down from 40% in mid-October. The 61% unfavorable view of the GOP is the highest unfavorable reading Gallup has recorded for that party since the measure was established in 1992.



The only thing surprising about a 61% unfavorable view of the GOP is, perhaps, that the unfavorable number is not higher considering 87% of Americans are dissatisfied with the direction the Republican philosophy of governance has take the county according to the Gallup's weekly survey question, "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?"

Survey Date Satisfied Dissatisfied Unsure
11/13-16/08 11 87 2
11/7-9/08 13 84 3
10/31-11/2/08 13 85 2

Texans are not as dissatisfied with GOP as Americans in general, but they are also unhappy - as Hill Research's statewide poll of 636 active Texas voters voters shows:
Texas voters increasingly unhappy with GOP - The Dallas Morning News
Poll's shocking SOS for Texas GOP - The Dallas Morning News

The survey, conducted by David Hill, raises questions about whether the Republican Party might be in trouble after a decade of political dominance in Texas.

"The poll results challenge the conventional wisdom that Texas is a solidly red state," said Mr. Hill. "This shows that the Republican Party's image, even among Anglos and conservatives and self-professed Republicans, is often not what we would like it to be."

Texas voters don't think the GOP is delivering government that is low-cost, in-touch or devoted to the common good, the poll shows.

Mr. Hill said he found that perceptions of Republicans as arrogant, corrupt, angry and unwelcoming jeopardize the party's dominance. The GOP currently holds every statewide office and controls the Legislature.

Half the voters polled believe the state is on the wrong track; only 37 percent believe Texas is headed in the right direction.
Only 32% of those surveyed Mr. Hill believe that Republican candidates "deserves" to be elected to office. While 45% say they approve of the way Republicans run government in Texas only 15% say they strongly approve. This compares to 35% who say they strongly disapprove of Republican performance and another 15% who somewhat disapprove for a total disapproval rating of 50%.



In Gallup's November poll more than half of Americans, 55%, currently hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party and only 39% an unfavorable view, highly typical of views toward the Democrats through all of 2008. In Mr. Hill's survey 54% of Texans say give Democrats a chance, a number that seems to match up with Gallup's reading that 55% of Americans currently hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party.



In a head-to-head match up today between a generic Democratic candidate for governor and a generic Republican, the Democrat starts out with a 13 percent advantage. In a state representative race, the Democratic advantage is 14 percent.

snapshot-2008-12-04-16-02-09.jpg

The next slide from the survey data details what voters don’t like, generically, about Republicans. Voters think the Republicans are arrogant, racist, corrupt and angry. While they think Democrats are smart, innovative, reformers, fair, thoughtful and, perhaps most importantly, the party of the future. As Hill Research notes, long-term, this is simply an untenable position for a political party that hopes to maintain its dominate position.

snapshot-2008-12-04-16-01-11.jpg

Neither party can win majority power in State or Federal elections without attracting substantial support from political independents. Hill Research slices the voting population into five distinct segments that includes the independent "Critical Middle" block of voters. It is the Critical Middle - those “not in either camp solidly - that Republicans must hold to win elections in Texas. This group is heavily male, under age 50, self-described moderate and/or independent and focused on fiscal rather than social "morality" issues.

snapshot-2008-12-04-16-24-21.jpg

Hill warns in no uncertain terms that for GOP campaigns to succeed they must wrap up 80 percent of the Critical Middle. “This isn’t ‘optional’ - anything less means Republicans lose.”

The Texas Republican Party, controlled in large part by religious conservatives, is going to have to make some serious changes to accommodate the Critical Middle voters. This group is not much swayed by the GOP's mainstay “traditional morality values” augments. At the state level, few voters care much about abortion, school prayer and other staunch social conservatism hot-button issues. What they do rate as important are cutting property taxes, child health care, job security, the economy and paying for their children's education.

The Democratic Party is enjoying an extended stretch of popularity with Americans that started in 2006, and is likely to continue as long as its new party leader, President-elect Barack Obama, continues to inspire high confidence ratings -- and eventually job approval ratings -- from the American people.

Since the Democratic Party is already closely identified as supporting health care, job security and education issues, a popular President Obama could help convince the Critical Middle to vote for Democratic candidates in 2010 and 2012.

The initial impulse of rank and file Republicans is to tack to the right -- returning to core "conservative" principles, as many Republican thought leaders are currently advocating. Given only about a third of independents want the party to be more conservative, it is unclear how much that approach might help to expand the Republican base.

Since most rank-and-file (largely religious conservatives) Republicans (59%) want to see the party move in a more conservative direction the party will likely field 2010 candidates that tend to be more rather than less conservative. The Hill Research Survey report concludes with some recommendations that indicates that isn't the way to attract "Critical Middle" voters.

snapshot-2008-12-04-16-46-33.jpg



snapshot-2008-12-04-16-50-43.jpg

Election 2010 Already Getting Interesting

Former Texas Comptroller John Sharp announced this week announced that he is in the running for the U.S. Senate seat that Kay Bailey Hutchison is expected to vacate as early as June 2009 to pursue her run for governor.

Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams announced this week that he also intends to join the Republican primary race to replace U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Williams' announcement was largely eclipsed by former Texas Comptroller John Sharp’s announcement. Williams, a car dealer, was widely considered to be a likely candidate for Texas Governor race in 2010.

Since 2006, speculation has mounted that Hutchison would abandon her safe senate seat to take on Governor Rick Perry in the 2010 GOP Primary for Governor. Hutchison toyed with the idea of making a similar run in 2002 and 2006 and ultimately made neither race. This time, however, she seems to be making the race for real, having formally formed an exploratory committee and populated it with a million dollars from her very substantial "senate" campaign war chest and taking an "exploratory" campaign tour of south Texas last August.

Speculation has focused on potential runs by U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, Tony Garza and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst for the Republican nomination to replace Gov. Rick Perry. Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza has ruled out the possibility of running for Texas governor in 2010. Gov. Rick Perry said in April 2008 that he will run for re-election in 2010, possibly setting up a bruising primary battle with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.

Next question is who will step forward as the Democratic candidate for the governor's office and the U.S. Senate seat that Kay Bailey Hutchison leaves open. Did everyone save their Rick Noriega yard signs?

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Kay Bailey Hutchison Eyes Tx Governor's Office

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison filed papers on December 4th to establish an exploratory committee to run for the Texas governor's office in the 2010 election.

The filing clears the way for Ms. Hutchison to open a campaign office and begin raising money to challenge Gov. Rick Perry for the Republican nomination. Hutchison had $8.6 million in her federal campaign account as of Sept. 30, and virtually all of it could be used for her campaign to over the governor’s office from Perry.

Mr. Perry has said he intends to seek re-election to the office he’s held since 2000, when he succeeded George W. Bush. Ms. Hutchison has increasingly indicated in recent months that she would challenge him.

“While Texas is faring somewhat better economically than many other states, a positive future is not guaranteed. It will take leaders who look ahead to meet the economic and budgetary challenges that are coming,” she said in a prepared statement.

“Texans deserve a governor who, in the context of sound budgetary policies and low taxes, works for quality schools and universities, access to health care for our families, communities safe from crime and drugs, protection of private property rights, safe transportation and a government that listens and responds to them," she said.

“There is too much bitterness, too much anger, too little trust, too little consensus and too much infighting. And the tone comes from the top. Texans are looking for leadership and results.”