Pogo, for you youngsters, was a possum-like character created by Walt Kelly in 1941 that was eponymous name of a comic strip that ran in many newspapers from 1948 until two years after his death in 1975, as well as in a steady stream of paperbacks.
Pogo was set in the Okefenokee Swamp of Georgia. It included the all-wise Pogo and a cast of bumbling characters, usually politicians. Walt Kelly first used the quote "We Have Met The Enemy and He Is Us" on this panel in 1970. I had a conversation with someone today that brought a vision of this panel to mind.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Monday, April 19, 2010
The U.S. Census
Friday was the deadline to mail 2010 census forms. The results of this census will have a profound effect on the American political landscape over the coming decade. The 2010 census will determine the apportionment of U.S. House of Representatives seats and Electoral College votes for each state, and much more.
Projections of reapportionment, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's population estimates and trends, indicate that 10 U.S. House of Representatives seats will shift among 17 states upon the completion of this census. If the census is accurately taken, the biggest reapportionment winner from the 2010 Census will be Texas with 4 additional U.S. House seats. If Texas does gain 4 seats, it would give the Lone Star state 36 U.S. House Representatives and 37 Electoral College Votes. Texas currently has 32 Congressional Districts and 34 Electoral College Votes.
If you mailed your census form by last Friday April 16th, then you cost the government only a few cents to count your household. If you did not mail in census form, or you only partially filled it out, then the government must spend about $57 dollars to count your household, and more, if you do not cooperate when the census worker visits your home. If you refuse to answer when they ring your door bell, they will talk to your neighbors, and if necessary, go and check on your household through public records. Your home, your household will be counted and all questions will be answered
Republicans should be salivating at the prospects of taking four U.S. House seats away from Democrats in northern states to send four additional Texas Republicans to Congress. But, it seems, not so much.
Instead, Republican heavy wieghts are sweating over the prospect that the far-right faction of the GOP may disrupt their political calculations.
That is why even Karl Rove, Deputy Chief of Staff to former President George W. Bush, recorded a public service announcement encouraging national participation in the 2010 Census.
As an article in The Hill points out, "Ultimately, Polidata's findings confirms expectations that voters living in manufacturing states are beginning to retire and head south."
U.S. Census and Representational Redistricting
The founding fathers wanted to establish a truly representative government and linking state population totals to the number of members in the House of Representatives would serve this purpose.
Article One of the United States Constitution describes the legislative branch of the federal government - the Congress - and establishes the manner of election and qualifications of legislative branch members. Specifically, Article 1 Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution says:
Projections of reapportionment, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's population estimates and trends, indicate that 10 U.S. House of Representatives seats will shift among 17 states upon the completion of this census. If the census is accurately taken, the biggest reapportionment winner from the 2010 Census will be Texas with 4 additional U.S. House seats. If Texas does gain 4 seats, it would give the Lone Star state 36 U.S. House Representatives and 37 Electoral College Votes. Texas currently has 32 Congressional Districts and 34 Electoral College Votes.
AP News Wire - April 28, 2010: Five states - New York, California, Texas, Arizona and Florida - are perilously close to losing out on congressional seat gains because of lackluster participation in the U.S. census. The five were average or below average in mailing back 10-question census forms when compared to other states, trailing by as many as 5 percentage points, according to the final census mail-in tally released Wednesday.A research study of likely 2011 reapportionment numbers published in December 2009 by Polidata projects:
- States gaining House seats: Texas (+4), Arizona (+2), Florida (+1), Georgia (+1), Nevada (+1), Oregon (+1), South Carolina (+1), and Utah (+1). (States May Also Gain Electoral College Votes)
- States losing House seats: Ohio (-2), Illinois (-1), Iowa (-1), Louisiana (-1), Massachusetts (-1), Michigan (-1), Minnesota (-1), Missouri (-1), New Jersey (-1), New York (-1), and Pennsylvania (-1). (States May Also Loose Electoral College Votes)
- Minnesota and Rhode Island are also on the very edge of losing one seat each. (If Rhode Island does lose one House seat it would join Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming as states with only a single representative seat in the U.S. House.)
For example: Using the Census Bureau's 2009 total state population estimate of 24,782,302 the ideal house district population number is 165,215. These numbers suggest a potential increase in the number of Texas House districts in Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, Johnson, Tarrant, and Williamson Counties and a potential decrease in the number of house districts in Dallas, El Paso, and Nueces Counties. The actual number of Texas House districts added to or subtracted from each large county cannot be determined until the 2010 Census count has been processed.Collin County ranks as one of the top growth areas in the state and the nation. In the ten years since the 2000 census, the county's population has grown more than 52 percent. With nearly 800,000 residents the county now has a population equal to or greater than the states of Montana, Delaware, South Dakota, Alaska, North Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.
From pages 9 and 11 of the Texas Legislative Council's 2010 Redistricting report.
The U.S. Census Bureau's population estimates that in just a single year (July 2008 - July 2009) the population of Texas increased by 231,539 people — more than Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida and Nevada, combined.Right wing hullabaloo over the federal Census, particularly the improbable claim that the Census is unconstitutional, is reportedly leading a lot of the most conservative Republicans to refuse to fill out their Census forms. Without an accurate census count Texas residents risk under-representation over the next decade, not to mention a lower apportionment of money from the federal government to build and maintain Texas infrastructure.
The federal government relies on census results to divvy up about $400 billion annually to state and local governments. For every Texan who is not counted in the Census, the state will lose an estimated $12,000 over the next decade in federal infrastructure funding for transportation, agriculture, health and education.The census return figures are lagging where they were 10 years ago, and Texas figures are lower than the national figures. Ten years ago the nation returned about 72% of the mailed out forms, but this year they have only returned about 69%. In Texas, about 64% of the forms have been mailed back, compared to 68% in 2000. For the North Texas Metro region the census form return rate is:
- 62 percent of Dallas County,
- 65 percent for Tarrant County,
- 67 percent for Denton County,
- 70 percent for Collin County and
- 73 percent for Rockwall County.
If you mailed your census form by last Friday April 16th, then you cost the government only a few cents to count your household. If you did not mail in census form, or you only partially filled it out, then the government must spend about $57 dollars to count your household, and more, if you do not cooperate when the census worker visits your home. If you refuse to answer when they ring your door bell, they will talk to your neighbors, and if necessary, go and check on your household through public records. Your home, your household will be counted and all questions will be answered
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Instead, Republican heavy wieghts are sweating over the prospect that the far-right faction of the GOP may disrupt their political calculations.
That is why even Karl Rove, Deputy Chief of Staff to former President George W. Bush, recorded a public service announcement encouraging national participation in the 2010 Census.
As an article in The Hill points out, "Ultimately, Polidata's findings confirms expectations that voters living in manufacturing states are beginning to retire and head south."
Have you noticed numerous and very large retirement communities springing up all over Collin County?Latinos make up a very large percentage of the population growth in Texas, and as articles in TexasKaos and Waco Tribune-Herald point out, many conservatives, who now control the Republican party, do not welcome Latinos, or indeed any minority, into the party fold. Have you seen any Latinos at your local Texas Tea Party events lately?
It is not likely that all those northerners moving to Texas are Republican. In fact, it is more likely that more of those northern transplants are Democrats rather than Republicans.
According to an article in the Waco Tribune-Herald, conservative activists created the Hispanic Republican Club of McLennan County to reach out to Latino, African-American, and young voters. Part of the clubs stated mission would be to fill the vacancies in the 40 out of 92 precincts that lack precinct chairs. Many of the precincts that have vacancies are in predominately minority areas. However, the McLennan County Republican Party chairman M.A. Taylor does not consider it important to fill those vacancies, and apparently does not think that minorities hold conservative views.America’s Voice Education Fund recently released the following analysis:
Latinos are not just settling in major cities, but diverse regions of the country. After the 2010 Census, new Members of Congress in states like Georgia and South Carolina as well as Arizona and Texas will owe their positions, in part, to the expanding Latino population.Some Latinos are progressives and some are conservatives, but whatever their political leanings Latinos seek political representation just like every other American. If Latinos and members of any minority community can't find representation and political voice in the Republican party, they will find it in the Democratic party.
Latinos represent 51% of population growth in the United States as a whole since 2000. They have driven growth in the states poised to gain House seats following the 2010 Census, especially in those projected to gain more than one seat.
Texas, the state projected to gain the most from reapportionment, has seen the highest percentage of Latino population growth. Latinos comprise 63% of the population growth in Texas since 2000 and are the single largest reason that the state is projected to gain four seats in the U.S. House—the greatest change, positive or negative, among any state in the nation.
In Texas, the Latino share of the voter population grew between 2000 and 2008 to encompass over one-fifth of the electorate. Although Texas has had a large Latino population throughout its history, Latino voting registration and turnout jumped by approximately 30% from 2000 to 2008, and the Latino share of the overall electorate increased to over 20%.
U.S. Census and Representational Redistricting
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Article One of the United States Constitution describes the legislative branch of the federal government - the Congress - and establishes the manner of election and qualifications of legislative branch members. Specifically, Article 1 Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution says:
The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States ... Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers ... The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct...The first U.S. Census of 1790 authorized by Congress specified that the enumeration that year would not only count “inhabitants” but would also record information about age, sex, race, status, and so forth, in order to assess the country’s military and industrial potential.
Subsequent Census Acts enacted by congress over the past two centuries expanded the number of questions asked during the census so that Congress could obtain the information it deemed it needed to "make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution the foregoing powers, and all other powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any department or officer thereof." (The Necessary and Proper Clause Article I, Section 8, Clause 18 of the U.S. Constitution)Originally, there were only 65 members in the U.S. House of Representatives. Because the U.S. Constitution links the number of House representatives to population count, House membership grew to 106 members after the 1790 census determined there were 4 million people living in the U.S. The number of representatives continued to grow along with the nation's population until 1911 when Congress "apportioned" House membership to a maximum of 435.
Apportionment, the process of distributing the 435 Congressional seats among the states, depends on population counts, but simple division generates fractions -- you cannot send a third of an elected official to Congress. Mathematicians, statisticians and politicians debated the problem until 1941 when Congress adopted the mathematical formula known today as Equal Proportions under Title 2, Section 2a of the U. S. Code. (For further information on how "Equal Proportions" determines the number of Congressional seats in each state - click here)The apportionment of Congressional seats is only part of the process of distributing political power. The individual states rely on U.S. census data for redrawing (redistricting) their own state and county level political districts. After the 1970 census, state officials complained that the results did not include summary data for local areas such as election precincts and wards. These areas are the essential building blocks for creating new districts and meeting the "one-person-one-vote" requirements mandate by Supreme Court of the United States case findings.
During the 1960s, the Supreme Court of the United States ruled in a series of cases that congressional and state legislative districts must consist of relatively equal populations. Specifically, the Court's decision in Wesberry v. Sanders (1964) mandated that states apportion congressional district boundaries based strictly according to population.In 1975, Congress enacted P.L. 94-171 requiring the U.S. Census Bureau to coordinate with officials in the individual states before each census. Together the U.S. Census Bureau and state officials define a geographic plan that produces the "small-area population data" needed by state state and local level governments to equally represent the people and to redraw Congressional, State Legislative and other local representational districts.
Republicans To Raise Taxes In Texas
A month ago, just after beating back Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison’s GOP Primary challenge, Perry led White 49% to 43%. Now, seven weeks after incumbent Rick Perry and former Houston Mayor Bill White won their respective primaries, a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Texas voters finds Perry has dropped a point to 48% while Bill White has gained a point to 44% of the vote, his best showing to date:
Texas is in financial trouble. The state will have a deficit of at least $8 billion in the next biennium, and that deficit could be as large as $11 or $12 billion. Part of the problem has been caused by the recession. But another part of the problem is due to Republican playing politics, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
About a year ago, Governor Perry turned down more than a half-billion dollars in funds to help the unemployed in Texas. Playing to his right-wing base, Perry said Texas didn't need the money and accepting it would force Texas to abide by federal government rules (to extend unemployment benefits).
More recently, He has refused to sign on to national standards for education, even though Texas should be exceeding those standards instead of refusing to come up to them. This is costing the state another $700 million dollars (at least). In addition, this refusal to meet federal education standards could cost Texas it's share of Title I education funds.
Texas has also cut property taxes, while creating a multi-million dollar fund for huge giveaways to corporate interests willing to move to Texas. Now the lower taxes, corporate giveaways and refusal to accept federal funds have combined with the recession to put the state in dire financial straits. The state will have a deficit of at least $8 billion in the next biennium, and that deficit could be as large as $11 or $12 billion.
Perry has already told all state agencies to cut their operations by 5% -- this on top of other cuts forced on these agencies in recent years. Many of these vital state agencies are now operating on a bare-bones budget, and are struggling to meet their obligations. More cuts are simply out of the question if they are to successfully complete their missions.
So how is the state going to meet their constitutional mandate of a balanced budget in the next biennium? That's simple. The state Republican leadership has painted themselves into a corner, and the only way out is to raise taxes. Of course, they won't raise any taxes on corporations. That would be unthinkable for these corporate-owned Republicans.
No, it is far more likely they will raise only the most regressive taxes, so that the new tax burden will fall most heavily on workers and the poor. And that is exactly what they are considering -- more sales taxes (the most regressive of all taxes, since it means that those making the least will pay the largest percentage of their income in the new taxes).
The sales tax in Texas is not applicable to everything sold in the state. There are many exemption including food, haircuts, children's day care, bottled water, dental work, tattoos, pedicures, gasoline and a host of other products and services. According to the Texas Comptroller, these exemptions total about $30 billion a year.
The Republican legislature has already begun hearings on cutting out some of these exemptions, and lobbyists are already gearing up to make sure their product or service remains exempt. It will be an interesting and messy fight when the new legislature meets in early 2011, but two things are clear right now. Taxes will be raised, and most of the burden for those new taxes will be borne by those who can least afford it.
I'm sure the Republicans will try to claim they didn't raise taxes, since they will be extending the sales tax to new products and/or services instead of raising the sales tax rate. But don't let them fool you. Texans will pay new and higher taxes, and it will be the Republicans who impose those higher taxes.
Fifty-nine percent (40%) of voters in Texas currently disapprove of the job Perry is doing as governor, including 22% who strongly disapprove. Perry has a slight lead among male voters and breaks roughly even among women. Voters not affiliated with either party give Perry a modest five-point edge over White."Houston Chronicle: Ailing economy worries Texans, could hurt Perry:"
Perry has a very favorable rating among 20% of voters and a very unfavorable rating of 22%. White has a very favorable rating among 21% of Texas voters and very unfavorably rating of 16%.
Perry picks up 75% of the votes among Texans who strongly favor repeal of health reform legislation. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Texas voters favor repeal of the health care plan, including 58% who strongly favor repeal while just 28% are oppose repeal, including 23% who strongly oppose repeal. White gets 89% of the votes among the group who oppose repeal.
Ten percent (10%) of Texas voters rate the economy as good or excellent. Forty percent (40%) think it's in poor shape.
Thirty-two percent (32%) say the economy is getting better, while 46% believe it's getting worse. [In January 35% believed the economy was getting worse.] Eighteen percent (18%) say it's staying about the same.
Read the full Rasmussen Report.
Vacant car lots, shuttered businesses and the grind of bad economic news is wearing down Texans' belief in a better tomorrow, according to a new survey of state voters, and that could be even worse news for Gov. Rick Perry.While Perry touts that his strong conservative leadership has created a robust Texas economy, his 48% against White's 44% showing in the Rasmussen poll shows that a lot of Texans are starting to notice that Perry's strong conservative leadership has wrought some real problems for Texas:
- Almost 1 million Texans are unemployed, a state record.
- 5,550 Texans continue to lose their health coverage each week
- Texas leads the nation in percentage of residents without health insurance with only 49.5 percent of Texas residents covered by employer-sponsored insurance [DMN]
- Texas' state debt has doubled under Perry.
- The property tax swap Perry passed in '06 created a permanent structural deficit in our state budget, which is contributing to an expected $11-$15 billion shortfall going into the 2011 Legislative Session.
- A recent report showed the Texas Enterprise Fund is "not creating jobs as promised."
- Health care premiums have increased 91.6% since Perry became Governor
- Tuition continues to rise at Texas' colleges and universities
- Utility rates continue to rise, and some utility companies and Perry thinks that is just fine.
- Rick Perry's property tax increase is hurting our local schools
- The student dropout rate in Texas is upwards of 30 percent, and as high as 50 percent in some large urban districts.
- Texas currently has the third-highest teen pregnancy rate in the United States and “the highest rate of repeat teen births.
- The rate of student pregnancies has increased as much as 57 percent and rates of sexually transmitted diseases are rising in some urban school districts.
Texas is in financial trouble. The state will have a deficit of at least $8 billion in the next biennium, and that deficit could be as large as $11 or $12 billion. Part of the problem has been caused by the recession. But another part of the problem is due to Republican playing politics, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
About a year ago, Governor Perry turned down more than a half-billion dollars in funds to help the unemployed in Texas. Playing to his right-wing base, Perry said Texas didn't need the money and accepting it would force Texas to abide by federal government rules (to extend unemployment benefits).
More recently, He has refused to sign on to national standards for education, even though Texas should be exceeding those standards instead of refusing to come up to them. This is costing the state another $700 million dollars (at least). In addition, this refusal to meet federal education standards could cost Texas it's share of Title I education funds.
Texas has also cut property taxes, while creating a multi-million dollar fund for huge giveaways to corporate interests willing to move to Texas. Now the lower taxes, corporate giveaways and refusal to accept federal funds have combined with the recession to put the state in dire financial straits. The state will have a deficit of at least $8 billion in the next biennium, and that deficit could be as large as $11 or $12 billion.
Perry has already told all state agencies to cut their operations by 5% -- this on top of other cuts forced on these agencies in recent years. Many of these vital state agencies are now operating on a bare-bones budget, and are struggling to meet their obligations. More cuts are simply out of the question if they are to successfully complete their missions.
So how is the state going to meet their constitutional mandate of a balanced budget in the next biennium? That's simple. The state Republican leadership has painted themselves into a corner, and the only way out is to raise taxes. Of course, they won't raise any taxes on corporations. That would be unthinkable for these corporate-owned Republicans.
No, it is far more likely they will raise only the most regressive taxes, so that the new tax burden will fall most heavily on workers and the poor. And that is exactly what they are considering -- more sales taxes (the most regressive of all taxes, since it means that those making the least will pay the largest percentage of their income in the new taxes).
The sales tax in Texas is not applicable to everything sold in the state. There are many exemption including food, haircuts, children's day care, bottled water, dental work, tattoos, pedicures, gasoline and a host of other products and services. According to the Texas Comptroller, these exemptions total about $30 billion a year.
The Republican legislature has already begun hearings on cutting out some of these exemptions, and lobbyists are already gearing up to make sure their product or service remains exempt. It will be an interesting and messy fight when the new legislature meets in early 2011, but two things are clear right now. Taxes will be raised, and most of the burden for those new taxes will be borne by those who can least afford it.
I'm sure the Republicans will try to claim they didn't raise taxes, since they will be extending the sales tax to new products and/or services instead of raising the sales tax rate. But don't let them fool you. Texans will pay new and higher taxes, and it will be the Republicans who impose those higher taxes.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Conservative Political Theater
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"In his actual [unedited full length] taped sessions with ACORN workers, [O'Keefe] was dressed in a shirt and tie, presented himself as a law student, and said he planned to use the prostitution proceeds to run for Congress. He never claimed he was a pimp," says the AG's report.
The videos were highly edited by rightwing activists James O'Keefe III and Hannah Giles, who posed as a prostitute and her law school boyfriend in the videos and played extensively on Fox News, as well as other non-partisan media outlets.
In a press release announcing his 28-page report [PDF] (and accompanying 55 pages of attachments and exhibits [PDF] with it), the AG's office says the publicly released videos taken in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Bernardino were "severely edited." The unedited California videos have now been posted on the CA Attorney General's website.
"The evidence illustrates that things are not always as partisan zealots portray them through highly selective editing of reality," says Brown in the statement. "Sometimes a fuller truth is found on the cutting room floor."
The description of the videos as "severely edited" also echoes the Brooklyn D.A.'s office, which was quoted as describing them as a "heavily edited splice job" when his report was released earlier this year. Brown's report also echoes an independent investigation [PDF] released by former MA Attorney General Scott Harshbarger early last December, but largely unreported in the national media.
Brown's report details that, "Although O’Keefe is dressed in stereotypical 1970s pimp garb in the opening and closing scenes of the videos released on the internet, when O’Keefe visited each of the ACORN offices, ACORN employees reported that he was actually dressed in a shirt and tie. Also, contrary to the suggestion in the edited videos, O’Keefe never stated he was a pimp. While speaking with the various ACORN workers, Brown's report notes:
Giles portrays herself as an abused prostitute desperate for help and pushed for any advice. She said she wanted to save the El Salvadoran girls from being preyed upon and raped. She claimed the pimp put a hit out on her and injured her by pushing her down the stairs.ACORN was an anti-poverty organization of 400,000 low and middle income members in 75 cities that helped the needy. The organization had been long targeted by Republicans because it legally registered hundreds of thousands of voters who tended to vote Democratic.
Brown goes on to explain that O'Keefe's edited video tapes from the Los Angeles ACORN office, "did not include all Giles statements regarding the abusive pimp, her tragic life, and fear for the underage girls, or [ACORN worker Lavelle] Stewart's statements that ACORN could not help."
O’Keefe's purpose was to damage ACORN and not to objectively report a story. The video releases were heavily edited to feature only out of context statements of various ACORN employees, and to omit salient statements by O’Keefe and Giles. Each ACORN employee recorded by O’Keefe in California was a low level employee whose job was to help the needy individuals who walked in the door seeking assistance. Giles and O’Keefe lied to ACORN employees engender compassion, but then edited their statements into the released videos.
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