30% Of Americans Are Unsure If Or Believe Environmentalists Blew Up the Deepwater Horizon Drilling Rig

Ten percent of Americans believe environmentalists intentionally sabotaged the oil rig Deepwater Horizon off the Gulf Coast according to a poll released Tuesday by Public Policy Polling. I'm still hearing some of my conservative friends say liberal environmentalists plotted with Obama's government to blow up the Deepwater Horizon oil drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico to advance their radical environmentalist anti-drilling political agenda!

Conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh floated the idea on his nationally syndicated talk show. "Think Progress reported on Limbaugh's conspiracy that is intended to shift blame from Big Oil to liberals in general and Obama in particular:

As the scale of the disaster caused by the explosion at an oil rig off the coast of Louisiana became more apparent last week, right-wing radio talker Rush Limbaugh unleashed a conspiracy theory suggesting that someone intentionally blew up the rig in order to “head off more oil drilling” ... "So, since they’re sending SWAT teams down there, folks, since they’re sending SWAT teams to inspect the other rigs, what better way to head off more oil drilling, nuclear plants, than by blowing up a rig? I’m just noting the timing here," said Rush Limbaugh on his radio program

Picking up on Limbaugh’s and oil spill truther's liberal conspiracy theory on fringe websites the Fox News conservative megaphone is also pushing the conspiracy theory that hardcore liberal environmentalist plotted with Obama's government to blow up the rig to advance their environmentalist anti-drilling political agenda. On Fox and Friends, former Bush Press Secretary Dana Perino said she was “not trying to introduce a conspiracy theory, but was this deliberate,” wondered Perino.

Public Policy Polling director Tom Jensen noted that if "undecideds" are included in the polling results, the number of Americans who are unsure about or believe the environmental sabotage theory rises to more than thirty percent." Just 9% of voters say they think environmentalists caused the spill while 22% are unsure and 69% don't believe they had anything to do with it," Jensen writes.

What really caused the blowout? An account given by two workers on the drilling rig and corroborated to some extent by Transocean, owner of the Deepwater drilling platform claims that BP, owner of the well, made key decisions to cut costs by short cutting proper procedures.

The final short cut was to reverse the order of cementing steps used to seal the well. After, cementing the casing, filling in the area between the pipe and the walls of the well, it is standard procedure to pour wet cement down the inside of the drill pipe, which then sinks thousands of feet down through the drilling mud before the cement hardens into a plug. Then the standard procedure is to wait for the cement plug to harden for a period of six hours before the drilling mud is removed. The account given by the two rig workers says that the drilling mud was removed before the cement was poured down the riser pipe.

Weighted drilling mud fills the pipe to hold back the oil and gas formation pressure while the well is being drilled. Properly weighted drilling mud prevents a blowout during drilling. As the heavy drilling mud was displaced by lighter sea water, without the cement plug in place, the reduced pressure inside the well riser pipe allowed the formation pressure to blowout of the pipe.

According to account, BP asked for and receive permission from the federal Minerals Management Service to displace the mud before the final plugging operation had begun. [WSJ Online]

Why didn't the blowout preventer work after the blowout occured?The blowout preventer had a dead battery in its control pod, leaks in its hydraulic system that provides emergency power to the "variable bore ram" device that was supposed to cut and seal the pipe to stop the flow of oil, a ram cutting tool that wasn’t strong enough to shear through pipe joints that made up 10 percent of the drill pipe, all of which really made no difference because the blowout preventer had been modified so that one of its "variable bore ram" drivers could be used for routine testing and was no longer designed to activate in an emergency. That’s the story told in the WashPost coverage on the devastating opening statement in a hearing of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

Rep. Henry Waxman says that his House Committee's investigation into the Gulf oil spill reveals that the blowout preventer had a leak in a crucial hydraulic system before the blowout. Without hydraulic pressure the blowout preventer's "variable bore ram," intended to close tight around the pipe and seal it, can not activate. And at a hearing in Louisiana on Tuesday, the government engineer who gave oil giant BP the final approval to drill admitted that he never asked for proof that the blowout preventer worked. [Huffington Post]

In the days after the blowout BP engineers tried to activate the blowout preventer, but failed because the device had been greatly modified and the diagrams BP got from the equipment's owner didn't match the device's new configuration, congressional investigators said Wednesday. BP engineers wasted many hours before figuring this out. Who ordered the alterations in the blowout preventer? Transocean, the owner of the blowout preventer and of the sunken Deepwater Horizon rig, said any alterations would have come at BP's instigation; BP, which owns the well and hired Transocean to drill it, said it had never sought the changes.

Testimony given before the House Energy and Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, said alterations to the blowout preventer prevented the massive "variable bore ram" from activating. This ram is intended to cut the pipe and seal it. The alteration had connected a useless test ram - not the variable bore ram - to the socket that was supposed to activate the variable bore ram. [Kansas City Star, a McClatchy Newspaper]

More:

• Huffington Post: Eyewitness accounts of the Deepwater Horizon well blowout
• Gulf Oil Spill Could Devastate U.S. Eastern Seaboard
• Offshore Drilling Outpaced Oil Industry's Safety Knowledge
• Deepwater Horizon Blowout - The True Story
• Oil industry failed to heed blowout warnings - The warnings were there a decade ago.

Offshore Drilling Outpaced Oil Industry's Safety Knowledge

McClatchy News Picture right - The offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon burns in the Gulf of Mexico shortly before it sank April 22, 2010. More McClatchy News photos. |

Over the past 15 years, oil companies have drilled deeper and farther into the Gulf of Mexico, taking on new risks in the hunt for new deposits of oil.

The dangers of deep water drilling are acute, where deep ocean currents combine with frigid temperatures and crushing pressures to make dangerous accidents more likely -- and much harder to fix.

Yet, oil industry's understanding of how deep water pressures affect drilling procedures and equipment, such as blowout preventers, have failed to keep pace as oil companies moved to deep water drilling.

TheYoungTurks — April 30, 2010 TheYoungTurks — May 06, 2010

Over the years those concerned about deep water offshore drilling have pointed to a series of warnings, malfunctions and near-misses.

Republicans have responded with ridicule and "drill baby drill" contempt to any suggestion by Democrats that oil companies were rushing unprepared and unregulated to offshore drilling leases.

Democrats are concerned about deep water offshore drilling because federal government and industry studies describe the industry's understanding for stanching a major deep water well blowout as "nonexistent with no guidelines or procedures for deep water blowout containment.

BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles announced in a press briefing announced Saturday that initial efforts to contain the Deepwater Horizon oil gusher with a 100-ton, four-story concrete-and-steel containment dome have failed - due to unforeseen developments.

The containment dome, known as a cofferdam, was lowered onto the leaking wellhead Friday, with the intent of pumping the leaking oil up a pipe to the sea surface a mile above.

After the containment dome was lowered onto the oil gushing wellhead, a slurry of "slush-like" methane hydrate crystals unexpectedly formed on the inside of the dome’s surface. The hydrate gave the dome positive buoyancy and clogged the oil outtake at the dome’s roof. Methane hydrate is natural gas that under the extreme pressure and low temperatures of the 5,000 foot deep ocean floor is compressed into a semi-frozen state. BP had not anticipated that methane hydrates could form within the containment dome at such a rapid rate.

The speed in which the containment chamber filled with hydrate is an indication that the oil flow out of the well could be much higher than the reported 5,000 barrels per day. The volume of oil flowing into the chamber would need be very high for the hydrate to form so quickly. Ian MacDonald, professor of oceanography at Florida State University who specializes in tracking ocean oil seeps from satellite imagery, estimates the daily rate to be 25,000 barrels of oil per day. Another scientist, John Amos, a geologist who has worked as an industry consultant, also says the more realistic number is 20,000 barrels per day.

The containment dome has been moved 200 meters from the disaster site, and is sitting on the sea bed as BP engineers attempt to work out a solution to the rapid methane hydrate formation within the dome.

That same methane hydrate has also been implicated in the oil rig explosion and fire when it "blew out" to the drilling platform surface in its natural gas form. The oil industry does seem to comprehend there are dangerous risks associated with deep water drilling that they do not understand. A publicly available Halliburton PowerPoint presentation from November 2009 contains the statement, "Destabilization of hydrates during cementing and production in deep water environments is a challenge to the safety and economics."

The dangers of deep water drilling have been laid bare by the Deepwater Horizon blowout and growing oil spill. Adm. Thad Allen, the Coast Guard's highest-ranking officer, who was appointed by the Obama administration to take command of the containment effort, acknowledged from the outset that the options were limited by what he called "the tyranny of depth."

Republicans have pushed for years to lift a 1981 ban on offshore drilling, saying it will increase domestic oil supplies. Republicans also want to legalize drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.

While advocating offshore and ANWAR drilling conservatives also pushed their agenda of downsizing government by reducing government's oversight role of industry, including the oil industry. Conservatives argue that industry self-regulation is preferable to government having a role in the regulation of business -- That would be socialist government.

We've seen this conservative anti-government agenda manifested in decreasing inspection of agricultural products, which resulted in a surge of food-borne illnesses. We've seen GOP Blind Faith In Unregulated Banks and Wall Street Markets Stoke Economic Crisis, a near-collapse of the U.S. and World economy and a deep recession. And now we that industry self-regulation policy at the root of the growing Deepwater Horizon disaster.

NYTimes:Regulator Deferred to Oil Industry on Offshore Rig Safety

Agency records show that from 2001 to 2007, there were 1,443 serious drilling accidents in offshore operations, leading to 41 deaths, 302 injuries and 356 oil spills. Yet the federal agency continues to allow the oil industry largely to police itself, saying that the best technical experts work for industry, not for the government.
..
Last year, BP, the owner of the well that blew in the gulf, teamed up with other offshore operators to oppose a proposed rule that would have required stricter safety and environmental standards and more frequent inspections. BP said that “extensive, prescriptive” regulations were not needed for offshore drilling, and urged the minerals service to allow it and other operators to define the steps they would take to ensure safety largely on their own.

U.S. Oil Regulator Ceded Safety Oversight to Drillers - WSJ.com - The small U.S. agency that oversees offshore drilling doesn't write or implement most safety regulations, having gradually shifted such responsibilities to the oil industry itself for more than a decade.

Instead, the Minerals Management Service—[for the most part still operating with conservative staff and policies installed during the Bush Administration]—sets broad performance goals for the industry. Oil producers and drilling companies are then free to decide for themselves how to meet those goals, industry executives and former regulators say.

Read more:
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Deepwater Horizon Blowout - The True Story

Happy Mothers Day 2010

Norman Rockwell's
Mother Tucking
Children in Bed
(1921)

Deepwater Horizon Blowout - The True Story

Have you heard your conservative Republican friends and neighbors wonder out loud if liberal environmentalists plotted with Obama's government to blow up the Deepwater Horizon oil drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico to advance their radical environmentalist anti-drilling political agenda? "Think Progress reports on the latest right-wing conspiracy to shift blame from Big Oil to liberals in general and Obama in particular:

As the scale of the disaster caused by the explosion at an oil rig off the coast of Louisiana became more apparent last week, right-wing radio talker Rush Limbaugh unleashed a conspiracy theory suggesting that someone intentionally blew up the rig in order to “head off more oil drilling” ... "So, since they’re sending SWAT teams down there, folks, since they’re sending SWAT teams to inspect the other rigs, what better way to head off more oil drilling, nuclear plants, than by blowing up a rig? I’m just noting the timing here," said Rush Limbaugh on his radio program

Picking up on Limbaugh’s and oil spill truther's liberal conspiracy theory on fringe websites the Fox News conservative megaphone is also pushing the conspiracy theory that hardcore liberal environmentalist plotted with Obama's government to blow up the rig to advance their environmentalist anti-drilling political agenda. On Fox and Friends, former Bush Press Secretary Dana Perino said she was “not trying to introduce a conspiracy theory, but was this deliberate?” ... “If there was sabotage involved,” wondered Perino. Later in the same day's show, host Steve Doocy asked Fox Business’ Eric Bolling to respond to people who have suggested that “there’s a possibility this could be sabotage.” Citing Perino, Bolling engaged in conspiracy speculation:

BOLLING: The question is did they let this thing leak? Did they let it leak a little bit and say, “boy I don’t know.” I mean, the conspiracy theorists would say, maybe they let it leak for a while and then they address the issue.

Another Fox program host Gretchen Carlson called Bolling’s speculation “a humongous accusation.” He agreed, adding, “but if they’re going to try to pull drilling, that may be the way to do it.” Watch video left:

BP America Inc. President Lamar McKay blamed the disaster on [the well blowout preventer on the gulf sea-bed in 5000 feet of water, that he called] “a failed piece of equipment,” in an interview with ABC News yesterday, adding that they “don’t know why it failed yet.” The blowout preventer is a 500,000 pound massive failsafe hydraulic valve intended to cut and seal the well pipe in case of a catastrophic blowout. The disaster occurred as Halliburton was cementing, or sealing, the well bore so that the drilling platform could be moved to a new drilling location.

An offshore blowout is when seawater and drilling mud containing gas from the well spew up from the well pipe onto the drilling rig floor; A blowout preventer (BOP) is a large valve that can seal off the wellhead, when the drilling crew loses control of drilling mud pressure and formation pressure forces oil or gas up to the drilling platform. By closing this valve (usually operated remotely via hydraulic actuators), the drilling crew can prevent a blowout of the well bore.

Oil industry expert talks to Fox News America's Newsroom

Oil wells do blowout and blowout preventers do fail -- absent any liberal conspiracy to blow up off shore rigs. In fact, Deepwater Horizon blowout is the second such deep water blowout in less than a year.

Just eight months ago, the BOP failed on a deep-water well in the Timor Sea, north-west of Australia. After five attempts and 10 weeks a relief well was drilled and the blowout flow, which was much smaller than Deepwater Horizon blowout flow, was stemmed.

An analysis of incidents in the Gulf of Mexico by the Texas A&M researchers showed that offshore blowouts have continued at "a fairly regular rate since 1960 despite the use of BOPs. A 2007 paper from the Minerals Management Service said between 1992 and 2006 there have been 39 actual blowouts.

Drilling for oil at depths greater than 3000 feet of water was rare a decade ago, but the profit to be made from deep water wells has made exploration economically feasible. Such wells are now common off the coasts of Brazil, Angola and Nigeria as well as in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Deepwater Horizon well head is more than a mile under water on the gulf sea-floor. A report by engineering consulting firm URS Corp. in 2002 concluded that "Technologies used in shallow waters are not adequate for water depths over 3000 feet. Engineering requirements and operational certification procedures for equipment used for deep water drilling are not well understood or tested.

Video of a blowout preventer being landed on a sea-floor well head and control cables connected by ROV.

In 2005 petroleum engineering researchers from Texas A&M University suggested that drilling in the "dangerous and unknown" ultra-deep environment required new blowout control measures: "While drilling as a whole may be advancing to keep up with these environments, some parts lag behind. An area that has seen this stagnation and resulting call for change has been blowout control."

A 2003 report co-authored by the then-director of technology development for Transocean, the company that owned the Deepwater Horizon rig that caught fire on April 20 and sank two days later, delivered at an industry conference warned that the industry wasn't taking time to find and fix underlying problems that commonly plagued blowout preventers. "Floating drilling rig downtime due to poor BOP (blowout preventer) reliability is a common and very costly issue confronting all offshore drilling contractors," the report said.

A 2008 report authored by officials of BP America and Transocean and published by the Society of Petroleum Engineers raised new questions about whether the blowout preventers on the deep water wells, like that the Deepwater Horizon was drilling, could face a new problem. http://www.thenewstribune.com/2010/05/06/1175820/cantwell-2003-report-revealed.html

A 1999 report commissioned by the federal agency that oversees offshore drilling suggests failures of underwater blowout preventers designed to stop oil spills like the massive one threatening the Gulf Coast were far from rare. Citing a Minerals Management Service report, Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., said there were 117 failures of blowout preventers during a two-year period in the late 1990s on the outer continental shelf of the United States. Sen. Maria Cantwell is the chairwoman of the Senate Commerce Committee's oceans, atmosphere, fisheries and Coast Guard subcommittee.

The unclassified version of the 1990 report said the failures involved 83 wells drilled by 26 rigs in depths from 1,300 feet to 6,560 feet. A similar report released by the agency in 1997 found that between 1992 and 1996 there were 138 failures of blowout preventers on underwater wells being drilled off Brazil, Norway, Italy and Albania. No additional studies were commissioned by the Bush administration during his term from January 2001 to January 2009.

The Deepwater Horizon was a large semi-submersible (meaning that it floats on large pontoons that actually float below the surface) and contains drilling, completion, cementing, and production facilities all on one vessel.

Deepwater Horizon was drilling an exploration well in a deep-water area known as Mississippi Canyon off of the coast of Louisiana.

Once a exploration well is drilled and a producing oil field discovery is confirmed it is sealed and multiple production wells are drilled. Initial reports of the accident said that the Deepwater Horizon platform drilling crew had set a cement plug deep in the well, to seal the exploration bore hole, and were displacing the weighted drilling mud in the riser pipe from the ocean floor to the drilling platform with sea water to recover the drilling mud.

Weighted drilling mud fills the pipe to hold back the oil and gas formation pressure while the well is being drilled. Properly weighted drilling mud prevents a blowout. The riser was 5,000 feet of 21" diameter pipe, some buoyant, some negatively buoyant.

As soon as the weighted drilling mud was recovered the platform was to be moved to another location to drill a production well in the newly confirmed oil field.

Initial speculation was that one or all of the cement plugs failed, and as the heavier drilling mud was displaced by lighter sea water, the reduced hydrostatic head pressure allowed the formation pressure to blowout of the well riser pipe.

Initial consensus was that the BOP, 5,000 feet below sea level, was irreparably damaged when the drilling platform and 5,000 feet of riser pipe collapsed to the sea floor. ROVs worked directly on the BOP over several days, doing everything that should have activated it but all efforts failed to stop the flow of oil and gas.

---------------- Updated May 12, 2010 ----------------

What really caused the blowout? An account given by two workers on the drilling rig and corroborated to some extent by Transocean, owner of the Deepwater drilling platform claims that BP, owner of the well, made a key decision to reverse the order of cementing steps used to seal the well. After, cementing the casing, filling in the area between the pipe and the walls of the well, it is standard procedure to pour wet cement down the inside of the drill pipe, which then sinks thousands of feet down through the drilling mud before the cement hardens into a plug. Then the standard procedure is to wait for the cement plug to harden for a period of six hours before the drilling mud is removed. The account given by the two rig workers says that the drilling mud was removed before the cement was poured down the riser pipe.

Weighted drilling mud fills the pipe to hold back the oil and gas formation pressure while the well is being drilled. Properly weighted drilling mud prevents a blowout during drilling. As the heavy drilling mud was displaced by lighter sea water, without the cement plug in place, the reduced pressure inside the well riser pipe allowed the formation pressure to blowout of the pipe.

According to account, BP asked for and receive permission from the federal Minerals Management Service to displace the mud before the final plugging operation had begun. [WSJ Online]

Why didn't the blowout preventer work after the blowout occured? The blowout preventer had a dead battery in its control pod, leaks in its hydraulic system that provides emergency power to the "variable bore ram" device that was supposed to close the flow of oil, a ram cutting tool that wasn’t strong enough to shear through joints that made up 10 percent of the drill pipe, all of which really made no difference because the blowout preventer had been modified so that one of its "variable bore ram" drivers could be used for routine testing and was no longer designed to activate in an emergency. That’s the story told in the WashPost coverage on the devastating opening statement in a hearing of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

Rep. Henry Waxman says that his House Committee's investigation into the Gulf oil spill reveals that the blowout preventer had a leak in a crucial hydraulic system before the blowout. Without hydraulic pressure the blowout preventer's "variable bore ram," intended to close tight around the pipe and seal it, cam not activate. And at a hearing in Louisiana on Tuesday, the government engineer who gave oil giant BP the final approval to drill admitted that he never asked for proof that the blowout preventer worked. [Huffington Post]

In the days after the blowout BP engineers tried to activate the blowout preventer, but failed because the device had been greatly modified and the diagrams BP got from the equipment's owner didn't match the device's new configuration, congressional investigators said Wednesday. BP engineers wasted many hours before figuring this out. Who ordered the alterations in the blowout preventer? Transocean, the owner of the blowout preventer and of the sunken Deepwater Horizon rig, said any alterations would have come at BP's instigation; BP, which owns the well and hired Transocean to drill it, said it had never sought the changes.

Testimony given before the House Energy and Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, said alterations to the blowout preventer prevented the massive "variable bore ram" from activating. This ram is intended to cut the pipe and seal it. The alteration had connected a useless test ram - not the variable bore ram - to the socket that was supposed to activate the variable bore ram. [Kansas City Star, a McClatchy Newspaper]

----------------

Witnesses describe Deepwater Horizon rig blowout -- Video of disaster

It was a calm night, so when methane gas hit surface, being heavier than air, it settled around the drilling platform deck. The gas grew so dense on deck that it began to invade compartments as the blowout strengthened.

As the electric generator engines that run the rig began to breath in the dense gas/air mix, the engines ran away uncontrollably and exploded. The generator explosions ignited the dense cloud of well gas on deck, which in turn ignited the blowout flow from the riser pipe.

Similar explosions happened in the mud pump room, destroying inner walls, which, according to the reported accounts, were unfortunately adjacent to the living quarters. In a strange twist of fate, the off-shift crew was reportedly having a party in the living quarters, celebrating 7 years of accident free performance. It is reported there were 7 BP executives on board the the drilling platform visiting on the rig for the celebration at the time of the blowout.

Houston Chronicle:

More on this Story Story | Gulf Coast states brace for nightmare cleanup from oil spill Story | Officials on Mississippi coast press BP to pay for cleanup Story | Obama to visit Gulf Coast as oil spill threatens Louisiana Story | After flyover, congressman downplays threat of oil spill Story | Obama won't halt offshore plans, despite widening spill Story | Cement job at underwater well probed as possible cause Story | What does Gulf oil spill have in common with Katrina? Attorneys Story | Opinions on offshore oil drilling in N.C. unchanged for now Story | Commentary: We must become smarter oil drillers Story | Oil spill's effects on sea life may not be limited to the Gulf Story | Pentagon on alert as Gulf Coast readies for oil's onslaught Story | Sen. Landrieu's Senate speech defending oil drilling Story | Growing Gulf oil spill prompts rethinking on offshore drilling On the Web | Track the spill at NOAA

Before the blowout, the rig's crew had been replacing heavy and valuable drilling mud with lighter salt sea­water in the top section of pipe known as the riser . Minutes before the Deepwater Horizon exploded in fire, workers on the deck heard a thump, then a hissing sound [as the well began to blowout.] Gas alarms sounded and the rig shook.

Seawater and [drilling] mud containing gas from the well spewed up through the crown of the derrick and rained down on the drilling floor; fumes reportedly moved into the “safe zones” where the electric generators are located. The generators raced out of control as they sucked gas into the air intakes.

When the electric power surged, light bulbs exploded, computers, control systems and other electric systems were destroyed, leaving the rig in darkness except for the light from fires and explosions that ripped apart walls, according to accounts derived from interviews with attorneys representing survivors, missing rig workers and their families, as well as experts in the field of offshore drilling operations.

Kevin Eugene, a steward on the rig, said he was in his bunk watching TV about 10 p.m. when a “big old loud boom” and an alarm went off “almost simultaneously.”

The lights went out. The platform began shaking.

“I thought the place was falling in the ocean, that the whole rig was collapsing,” said the father of four from Slidell, La.

Ceiling tiles, dust and debris rained down from overhead. Clad only in his pajama pants and undershirt, he scrambled down a hallway toward an exit to a stairwell that would lead to a lifeboat up on deck. He heard more explosions, but can't remember how many.

When he got onto the deck, he felt a blast of heat and saw flames about 200 yards away.

“I mean it was the hugest, biggest fire I've ever seen,” Eugene said. “It was just a big old ball of fire up there on the derrick. The whole derrick was on fire. The fire was shooting from out the well over there that the derrick was connected to and you could hear the gas gushing out.”

The deck was covered with oily mud.

...

When the alarms go off “you shut it down,” said Daniel Becnel, an attorney from Reserve, La., who has filed lawsuits on behalf of fishermen, oystermen and other Louisiana residents claiming damages from the spill. “They've got panic switches all over the place.”

Those switches are supposed to activate a blowout preventer on the ocean floor, a huge and complex tower of valves and pipe crimpers designed to shut down a well in an emergency. It didn't work.

Although it had been tested beforehand, BP now says robot submarines have discovered at least one problem with the blowout preventer, though it is unclear whether it caused the malfunction.

“We have found that there are some leaks on the hydraulic controls,” said Bob Fryar, senior vice president of BP's exploration and production operations in Angola, in southwestern Africa.

There is much more. The Houston Chronicle story also discusses the issues around the cementing of the well and how that can lead to blowouts sometimes.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that, after review of satellite imagery and calculations made by experts, the BP Mississippi Canyon Block 252 well may actually be flowing at a much higher rate that the unified command is admitting. According the the report, Ian MacDonald, professor of oceanography at Florida State University who specializes in tracking ocean oil seeps from satellite imagery, estimates the daily rate to be 25,000 barrels of oil per day. He says he has shared his data with NOAA scientists, who didn't dispute his findings.

Another scientist, John Amos, a geologist who has worked as an industry consultant tracking oil spills using satellite imagery, is the one who presented data to NOAA last week, which then raised its estimates from 1,000 barrels a day to 5,000. Amos says the 5,000 barrel estimate is at the "extremely low end" of their estimates. He says the more realistic number is 20,000 barrels per day. If these numbers are true, and it does take 90 days to get the relief well drilled, the oil spill will be 8 or 9 times larger than the Exxon Valdez.

The flowing wellhead pressure may be as high as 10,000 PSI and that, even if the BOP could be closed now, could very well be leaking in the locking mechanism below the stack. Leaks always get worse, not better, as anyone knows who's been annoyed by a dripping kitchen faucet. The only problem here is that this faucet is "dripping" at upwards of 25,000 barrels per day. One industry source, who has knowledge of the operations, said, "[the BOP] isn't closed and In my professional opinion, its not going to close..."

The well has now been flowing uncontrolled for 13 days. These units are designed to slam shut, not be flowed through, at least at these high rates and pressures. Erosion of the ram faces and the bore is now likely severe, further reducing its chances of ever actually shutting the well in and sealing.

Preparations are now being made to cut the riser above the BOP in preparation of installing a containment structure to capture the flow of oil. Essentially, it is a large box structure that is lowered over the source of the leak and connected by a riser to the surface. Oil will then flow up the riser to a ship that will process and collect the oil. It is believed that, if successful, this structure could capture up to 85% of the produced oil. This is a technique that has been used successfully in shallow water, but never this deep. It appears that the containment structure is the only chance BP has of slowing the growth of the spill, at least until they get the well killed by a relief well, or if well bore damage slows the flow by itself.

If the flow of oil can not be stopped soon, experts are worried that the Gulf Loop Current could pick up the slick and carry it toward Florida, through the keys, around the Florida panhandle. At that point the slick will be picked up by the enter the Gulf Stream and move up the eastern seaboard.

The Loop Current begins in the Caribbean and travels clockwise up to the Gulf Stream, which runs along the eastern seaboard of the US and into Canada. But if this oil gets picked up by the Loop Current and carried into the Gulf Streem, the scope of the disaster could broaden, affecting the eastern seaboard as far north as Cape Hatteras in North Carolina.

"If oil is swept up into the Loop Current--which moves at about 3.3 to 6.5 feet (one to two meters) a second--there's essentially no way to stop it," Tony Sturges, professor emeritus in oceanography at Florida State University, told National Geographic. "Once [oil] gets into the loop current, you can bet the farm it will go around to the south" of the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf Stream." Florida should be bracing for the worst, he added. The noxious oil could get pulled into estuaries, harbors and coastal waterways, affecting nurseries for valuable fisheries.


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The Digital Campaign Trail Is Where Elections Are Won Today

PBS News Hour Ray Suarez reports on how both political parties are connecting with constituents on the Web. Listen to "Wired White House Looks to Harness New Media" - How Democrats are harnessing new media following President Obama's successful presidential campaign on the Web. mp3 Listen to "Republicans Hope to Maintain Social Media Edge into Midterm Elections" - Republicans Hope to Maintain Social Media Edge into Midterm Elections. mp3

It should be obvious from Obama's 2008 Presidential Election that the web would begin to make a difference in political campaigning. But, there is still hesitation to use the Internet extensively in political campaigns. Many campaigns still focus exclusively on direct mail, phone banking, block walking and television while ignoring Internet mass media audiences. Less than 10% of political consultants believe the internet is an effective channel to reach voters.

What accounts for candidates’ and consultants’ delay in embracing digital strategies, including online web advertising? Many political strategists dismiss the Internet because they think it does not reach the “right” people. For them the Internet is seen as a medium for the younger generation who do not vote in the same numbers as, say, older retired voters.

Yet, according to a October 2009 eVoter Institute research study (PDF) the majority of all voters (87%) today expect candidates to have an official rich media web site and 70% expect them to use it to raise money and for posting videos. 67% of voters expect candidates to use on-line ads, webcasts and campaign video on other sites.

A Pew Research Center Internet & American Life Project study conducted in December 2009 shows that while only 38% of U.S. adults age 65+ go online 70% of adults in the next-oldest 50-64 age group regularly use the Internet. That compares to 81% for the 30-49 group and 93% for the 18-29 age group. The study also reveals that 55% of adults across all age groups connect to the internet wirelessly, either through a WiFi or WiMax connection via their laptops or through their hand-held device like a smart phone.

Another Pew Research Center research report titled "The Internet's Role in Campaign 2008," published in April 2009, revealed that some 74% of internet users--representing 55% of the entire adult population--went online in 2008 to get involved in the political process or to get news and information about the election. (More information)

The two most commonly thought of elements of a digital campaign strategy tend to be e-mail and a static bill board Web site. In 2010 that type of limited internet strategy is badly out of date.

YouTube for Politics Google Adwords Google Demographic Bidding To Target Ad Placement

The modern digital strategy employs campaign websites with rich media, videos and plenty of interactivity through social media channels with contextual web advertising to drive people to the rich-media campaign website.

Relatively cheap web ad buys are employed to drive people to the official rich media website to watch streaming video and television-style campaign ads and listen to podcasts.

Persuasion comes in many forms. It happens when people are persuaded to click a web ad to go to a candidate's or advocacy group's media rich website where they can be persuaded to give money, or send their e-mail address and cell phone number for future communication, to follow on Twitter or to even change their mind about a candidate or issue.

The modern digital strategy can be used for reinforcement as well as persuasion, by bolstering other traditional fund-raising and get-out-the-vote programs, including direct mail, phone banking, block walking, yard signs, apparel and old media television and radio buys.

On March 1, 2010, the Dallas Morning News wrote about how Rick Perry is running a new kind of campaign:

Rick Perry's campaign has a radical approach that eschews traditional voter turnout efforts in favor of extensive use of social media networks to win Tuesday's GOP primary.

Haven't seen a Perry yard sign? There aren't any, and Perry has no local office to house them. Dreading yet another phone call from a political candidate? Don't worry; Perry has no phone banks. And you probably won't see supporters with T-shirts knocking at the door.

But you may get a Facebook message from a friend in your social circle. You're more likely to find Perry campaign appeals on Twitter, even Craigs List, than to see his mug on a highway billboard.

The new approaches are largely a response to a changing electorate. Tech-savvy young adults who couldn't or wouldn't vote 10 years ago are more actively involved in the political process, and they're more likely to want to follow a candidate on Twitter than plant a sign in their front yard.

What's more, it's becoming increasing difficult to reach even older voters by phone. With everyone carrying a cellphone, landlines have become a wasteland for solicitations.

Television is a problem as well, with prospective voters using DVRs to speed through commercials. And the cost of advertising on television has never been higher.

"Campaigns are evolving just like people and technology," said Mari Woodlief, president of Dallas-based Allyn Media. "You have to go where the people are, and more and more that's become the Internet."

"We probably don't know what the highest and best use will be, but the Internet and social media has become an effective campaigning and fundraising tool," Woodlief said.

The governor's ground game is mostly devoted to a movement he calls the Perry Home Headquarters program, built on the same framework as social media sites.

That part of the approach is nothing new. In 2004, President George W. Bush developed a grass-roots program that called on a massive voter turnout effort 72 hours before Election Day. The program relied on volunteers to get their friends and neighbors to the polls.

Perry's effort differs in that it's mostly Internet-based. Part-time workers used Facebook and MySpace to sign up potential voters. Others, in it for a buck, used Craigs List, the online classified ads site, to gain an advantage.

The Dallas Morning News apparently has not noticed that since last fall Perry's Democratic opponent, Bill White, has been running a sophisticated Internet-based campaign complete with targeted web ads popping up everywhere for Texas Internet users.

National news blog front page with a web ad targeted only to Texas readers.

White Texas reader targeted FaceBook ad appearing in the FaceBook page for Collin County Commissioner's Court Judge Keith Self, a very conservative Republican

Politicians have long understood the persuasive nature of television and radio ads, yard signs and volunteers handing out literature or walking around the neighborhood. They also understand the ability of cable television ads to deliver targeted messages to specific audiences. Politicians are now learning that the Internet enables them to reach voters that are prohibitively expensive or just plain impossible to reach through old-media printed newspaper, radio or television buys or even phone bank telephoning.

Plus, none of the traditional old-media modes of communication give the viewer or listener a direct and immediate way to respond to a call to action, ask for more information or send money to a campaign.

But, an online ad can immediately turn persuasion into action. While a television commercial can tell you that a candidate needs your help, only an online advertisement can send a viewer directly to a Web site that accepts credit cards. A radio ad can fire you up to spread the candidate’s message, but only an online ad lets you forward the message to your friends.

Statistics Show Reliance On The Internet Is Bigger Than You Think

The majority of U.S. households now have high-speed broadband connection to the Internet, particularly in Collin Co. Among the entire population the internet has surpassed newspapers and is roughly twice as important as radio as a source of political news and information for voters.

The Internet also continues to make strong gains to displace TV as the dominant information source. Among internet users and young adults, these differences are even more magnified. This provides an opportunity for political candidates to effectively execute Web-based campaign strategies.

May 8 School Board & City Council Elections For Collin Co.

Early voting begins Monday for Collin County city council and school board seats begins Monday and runs through May 4. Election day is May 8.

• May 8, 2010 Elections - Early Voting Locations & Hours
• May 8, 2010 Elections - Election Day Polling Locations & Sample Ballots

Allen City Council & ISD - League of Women Voters Collin County

1. Allen City Council, Place 4 - DMN
2. Allen City Council, Place 6 - DMN
3. Allen ISD, Place 5 - DMN

Anna City Council & ISD - Anna Melissa Tribune

1. Anna City Council, Place 2
2. Anna City Council, Place 4
3. Anna City Council, Place 6
4. Anna ISD, Place 1
5. Anna ISD, Place 3
6. Anna ISD, Place 3

Celina City Council & ISD

1. Celina City Council, Place 1
2. Celina City Council, Place 5
3. Celina City Council, Place 6

Voters who live in Celina will vote on six bond propositions

1. $2,475,000 for Fire Safety Facilities
2. $685,000 for Public Safety Information Technology and Communications Equipment
3. $3,100,000 for Drainage Improvements
4. $2,000,000 for Street Improvements
5. $1,375,000 for Parks and Recreation Facilities
6. $400,000 for Public Works Facilities

Frisco City Council & ISD - League of Women Voters Collin County

1. Frisco City Council, Place 2 - DMN
2. Frisco City Council, Place 4 - DMN

Voters who live in Frisco will also vote on 14 proposed amendments to the city charter.

1. Correct non-substantive errors such as misspellings and grammar.
2. Hold regular city elections on the second rather than first Saturday in May.
3. Increase the term limits for mayor and council members from two terms to three terms.
4. Allow the city manager rather than the city council to appoint or remove the city secretary.
5. Allow the council, if desired, to hold only one regular monthly meeting for two months in a calendar year.
6. Clarify the percentage of affirmative votes needed to pass a measure if the full council is not present.
7. Require rules on giving and receiving of gifts by city employees.
8. Require candidates for elective office to be at least 18 years old and a resident for at least one year immediately preceding filing.
9. Increase the percentage of required signatures on a petition to 30 percent of the votes cast at the last mayoral election.
10. Clarify the qualifications, structure and operations of the Planning and Zoning Commission.
11. Prohibit package liquor sales in any zoning district that allows residential development.
12. Delete an unnecessary section on officers and employees.
13. Clarify city employees' ban on involvement in council and mayoral campaigns.
14. Revise procedures related to the acceptance of gifts by city officials.

Lovejoy City Council & ISD

1. Lovejoy ISD, Place 1
2. Lovejoy ISD, Place 2
3. Lovejoy ISD, Place 3

Lowry Crossing City

1. Lowry Crossing City Council

McKinney ISD - League of Women Voters Collin County

1. McKinney ISD, Place 3 - DMN
2. McKinney ISD, Place 7 - DMN

Voters who live in McKinney will vote on six bond propositions that total to $51.35 million:

1. $15.5 million for street and traffic-light improvements
2. $12.5 million for park improvements, including trails and a skateboard park
3. $11.35 million for a public safety building and land acquisition for future buildings
4. $5 million to acquire land for a public works facility
5. $4 million for lake, dam and creek rehabilitation
6. $3 million for downtown parking improvements

Melissa City Council & ISD - Anna Melissa Tribune

1. Melissa City Council, Place 1
2. Murphy City Council, Place 3
3. Murphy City Council, Place 5

Murphy City Council

1. Murphy City Council, Place 1
2. Murphy City Council, Place 2
3. Murphy City Council, Place 4
4. Murphy City Council, Place 6

Plano ISD - League of Women Voters Collin County

1. Plano ISD, Place 1 - DMN
2. Plano ISD, Place 2 - DMN
3. Plano ISD, Place 3 - DMN

Princeton ISD

1. Princeton ISD
   

Prosper ISD

1. Mayor
   
2. Prosper City Council, Place 1
3. Prosper City Council, Place 4
4. Prosper City Council, Place 6
5. Prosper ISD, Place 1
6. Prosper ISD, Place 3
7. Prosper ISD, Place 6

Wylie City Council & ISD

1. Wylie City Council, Place 1
2. Wylie City Council, Place 3
3. Wylie ISD, Place 5
4. Wylie ISD, Place 6
5. Wylie ISD, Place 7

Collin College Board of Trustees - League of Women Voters Collin County

1. Collin College Board of Trustees, Place 1
2. Collin College Board of Trustees, Place 2
3. Collin College Board of Trustees, Place 3

Charges of Mail-In Ballot Fraud In Dallas Democratic Primary

Dallas Morning News:

Dallas County Judge Jim Foster (D) and Dallas County Justice of the Peace Luis Sepulveda (D) who lost in the March 2nd Democratic Primary have alleged the election was marred by fraud associated with mail-in ballots. The Dallas Morning News reports Judge Foster as saying the Texas Secretary of State has forwarded his complaint to Attorney General Greg Abbott (R) and that the AG has decided to investigate.

JP Luis Sepulveda recently filed suit to force a recount of his Primary Election race. Sepulveda, a Democrat in Precinct 5, had the largest number of "ballot box" votes in March 2nd Primary, but lost the election to rival Carlos Medrano, who received more than twice as many ( 606 vs. 245) mail-in ballot votes. Sepulveda says in the lawsuit that all of the 606 mail-in ballots cast for Medrano during early voting were collected with the help of "vote harvesters," people who assist the elderly and others who can't make it to the polls. The lawsuit alleges that mail-in ballots were cast by people who are not U.S. citizens, weren't registered or didn't live in Dallas JP Precinct.

Abbott spent $1.4 million from a federal crime-fighting grant to conduct a two year investigation attempting to locate what he had described as an epidemic of voter fraud in Texas. By the end of his two year investigation in 2008 Abbott had found only 26 cases of "fraud" where people forgot to properly sign and address the absentee ballot envelope. Abbott prosecuted all 26 cases – all against Democrats, and almost all involving blacks or Hispanics, a review by The Dallas Morning News showed.

We Have Met The Enemy and He Is Us

Pogo, for you youngsters, was a possum-like character created by Walt Kelly in 1941 that was eponymous name of a comic strip that ran in many newspapers from 1948 until two years after his death in 1975, as well as in a steady stream of paperbacks.

Pogo was set in the Okefenokee Swamp of Georgia. It included the all-wise Pogo and a cast of bumbling characters, usually politicians. Walt Kelly first used the quote "We Have Met The Enemy and He Is Us" on this panel in 1970. I had a conversation with someone today that brought a vision of this panel to mind.

The U.S. Census

Friday was the deadline to mail 2010 census forms. The results of this census will have a profound effect on the American political landscape over the coming decade. The 2010 census will determine the apportionment of U.S. House of Representatives seats and Electoral College votes for each state, and much more.

Projections of reapportionment, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's population estimates and trends, indicate that 10 U.S. House of Representatives seats will shift among 17 states upon the completion of this census. If the census is accurately taken, the biggest reapportionment winner from the 2010 Census will be Texas with 4 additional U.S. House seats. If Texas does gain 4 seats, it would give the Lone Star state 36 U.S. House Representatives and 37 Electoral College Votes. Texas currently has 32 Congressional Districts and 34 Electoral College Votes.

AP News Wire - April 28, 2010: Five states - New York, California, Texas, Arizona and Florida - are perilously close to losing out on congressional seat gains because of lackluster participation in the U.S. census. The five were average or below average in mailing back 10-question census forms when compared to other states, trailing by as many as 5 percentage points, according to the final census mail-in tally released Wednesday.

A research study of likely 2011 reapportionment numbers published in December 2009 by Polidata projects:

• States gaining House seats: Texas (+4), Arizona (+2), Florida (+1), Georgia (+1), Nevada (+1), Oregon (+1), South Carolina (+1), and Utah (+1). (States May Also Gain Electoral College Votes)
• States losing House seats: Ohio (-2), Illinois (-1), Iowa (-1), Louisiana (-1), Massachusetts (-1), Michigan (-1), Minnesota (-1), Missouri (-1), New Jersey (-1), New York (-1), and Pennsylvania (-1). (States May Also Loose Electoral College Votes)
• Minnesota and Rhode Island are also on the very edge of losing one seat each. (If Rhode Island does lose one House seat it would join Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming as states with only a single representative seat in the U.S. House.)
  

The 2011 redistricting of Texas Congressional, State Senate, State House and various other representational districts will also be based on the 2010 census count. Collin County should see changes in the number elected representatives it sends to the U.S. House, State Senate, State House and perhaps other local elected offices within the county.

For example: Using the Census Bureau's 2009 total state population estimate of 24,782,302 the ideal house district population number is 165,215. These numbers suggest a potential increase in the number of Texas House districts in Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, Johnson, Tarrant, and Williamson Counties and a potential decrease in the number of house districts in Dallas, El Paso, and Nueces Counties. The actual number of Texas House districts added to or subtracted from each large county cannot be determined until the 2010 Census count has been processed.

From pages 9 and 11 of the Texas Legislative Council's 2010 Redistricting report.

Collin County ranks as one of the top growth areas in the state and the nation. In the ten years since the 2000 census, the county's population has grown more than 52 percent. With nearly 800,000 residents the county now has a population equal to or greater than the states of Montana, Delaware, South Dakota, Alaska, North Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.

The U.S. Census Bureau's population estimates that in just a single year (July 2008 - July 2009) the population of Texas increased by 231,539 people — more than Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida and Nevada, combined.

Right wing hullabaloo over the federal Census, particularly the improbable claim that the Census is unconstitutional, is reportedly leading a lot of the most conservative Republicans to refuse to fill out their Census forms. Without an accurate census count Texas residents risk under-representation over the next decade, not to mention a lower apportionment of money from the federal government to build and maintain Texas infrastructure.

The federal government relies on census results to divvy up about $400 billion annually to state and local governments. For every Texan who is not counted in the Census, the state will lose an estimated $12,000 over the next decade in federal infrastructure funding for transportation, agriculture, health and education.

The census return figures are lagging where they were 10 years ago, and Texas figures are lower than the national figures. Ten years ago the nation returned about 72% of the mailed out forms, but this year they have only returned about 69%. In Texas, about 64% of the forms have been mailed back, compared to 68% in 2000. For the North Texas Metro region the census form return rate is:

• 62 percent of Dallas County,
  
• 65 percent for Tarrant County,
  
• 67 percent for Denton County,
  
• 70 percent for Collin County and
  
• 73 percent for Rockwall County.

Those households that did not mail in a Census form, or that only partially filled it out, can expect one of the 84,000 Texas census workers to visit their home to gather the census information. If there is no answer when a census worker rings the door bell, they will return to ring the door bell as many as eight more times to gather the census information. Whether you mailed in a Census form or not, whether you cooperate or not when a census worker comes to your home, your household will be counted and all questions will be answered. Those households that do not cooperate simply cause the government to waste more time and more money to complete the census.

If you mailed your census form by last Friday April 16th, then you cost the government only a few cents to count your household. If you did not mail in census form, or you only partially filled it out, then the government must spend about $57 dollars to count your household, and more, if you do not cooperate when the census worker visits your home. If you refuse to answer when they ring your door bell, they will talk to your neighbors, and if necessary, go and check on your household through public records. Your home, your household will be counted and all questions will be answered

Karl Rove

Republicans should be salivating at the prospects of taking four U.S. House seats away from Democrats in northern states to send four additional Texas Republicans to Congress. But, it seems, not so much.

Instead, Republican heavy wieghts are sweating over the prospect that the far-right faction of the GOP may disrupt their political calculations.

That is why even Karl Rove, Deputy Chief of Staff to former President George W. Bush, recorded a public service announcement encouraging national participation in the 2010 Census.

As an article in The Hill points out, "Ultimately, Polidata's findings confirms expectations that voters living in manufacturing states are beginning to retire and head south."

Have you noticed numerous and very large retirement communities springing up all over Collin County?

It is not likely that all those northerners moving to Texas are Republican. In fact, it is more likely that more of those northern transplants are Democrats rather than Republicans.

Latinos make up a very large percentage of the population growth in Texas, and as articles in TexasKaos and Waco Tribune-Herald point out, many conservatives, who now control the Republican party, do not welcome Latinos, or indeed any minority, into the party fold. Have you seen any Latinos at your local Texas Tea Party events lately?

According to an article in the Waco Tribune-Herald, conservative activists created the Hispanic Republican Club of McLennan County to reach out to Latino, African-American, and young voters. Part of the clubs stated mission would be to fill the vacancies in the 40 out of 92 precincts that lack precinct chairs. Many of the precincts that have vacancies are in predominately minority areas. However, the McLennan County Republican Party chairman M.A. Taylor does not consider it important to fill those vacancies, and apparently does not think that minorities hold conservative views.

America’s Voice Education Fund recently released the following analysis:

Latinos are not just settling in major cities, but diverse regions of the country. After the 2010 Census, new Members of Congress in states like Georgia and South Carolina as well as Arizona and Texas will owe their positions, in part, to the expanding Latino population.

Latinos represent 51% of population growth in the United States as a whole since 2000. They have driven growth in the states poised to gain House seats following the 2010 Census, especially in those projected to gain more than one seat.

Texas, the state projected to gain the most from reapportionment, has seen the highest percentage of Latino population growth. Latinos comprise 63% of the population growth in Texas since 2000 and are the single largest reason that the state is projected to gain four seats in the U.S. House—the greatest change, positive or negative, among any state in the nation.

In Texas, the Latino share of the voter population grew between 2000 and 2008 to encompass over one-fifth of the electorate. Although Texas has had a large Latino population throughout its history, Latino voting registration and turnout jumped by approximately 30% from 2000 to 2008, and the Latino share of the overall electorate increased to over 20%.

From NDN

Some Latinos are progressives and some are conservatives, but whatever their political leanings Latinos seek political representation just like every other American. If Latinos and members of any minority community can't find representation and political voice in the Republican party, they will find it in the Democratic party.

U.S. Census and Representational Redistricting

The founding fathers wanted to establish a truly representative government and linking state population totals to the number of members in the House of Representatives would serve this purpose.

Article One of the United States Constitution describes the legislative branch of the federal government - the Congress - and establishes the manner of election and qualifications of legislative branch members. Specifically, Article 1 Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution says:

The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States ... Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers ... The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct...

The first U.S. Census of 1790 authorized by Congress specified that the enumeration that year would not only count “inhabitants” but would also record information about age, sex, race, status, and so forth, in order to assess the country’s military and industrial potential.

Subsequent Census Acts enacted by congress over the past two centuries expanded the number of questions asked during the census so that Congress could obtain the information it deemed it needed to "make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution the foregoing powers, and all other powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any department or officer thereof." (The Necessary and Proper Clause Article I, Section 8, Clause 18 of the U.S. Constitution)

Originally, there were only 65 members in the U.S. House of Representatives. Because the U.S. Constitution links the number of House representatives to population count, House membership grew to 106 members after the 1790 census determined there were 4 million people living in the U.S. The number of representatives continued to grow along with the nation's population until 1911 when Congress "apportioned" House membership to a maximum of 435.

Apportionment, the process of distributing the 435 Congressional seats among the states, depends on population counts, but simple division generates fractions -- you cannot send a third of an elected official to Congress. Mathematicians, statisticians and politicians debated the problem until 1941 when Congress adopted the mathematical formula known today as Equal Proportions under Title 2, Section 2a of the U. S. Code. (For further information on how "Equal Proportions" determines the number of Congressional seats in each state - click here)

The apportionment of Congressional seats is only part of the process of distributing political power. The individual states rely on U.S. census data for redrawing (redistricting) their own state and county level political districts. After the 1970 census, state officials complained that the results did not include summary data for local areas such as election precincts and wards. These areas are the essential building blocks for creating new districts and meeting the "one-person-one-vote" requirements mandate by Supreme Court of the United States case findings.

During the 1960s, the Supreme Court of the United States ruled in a series of cases that congressional and state legislative districts must consist of relatively equal populations. Specifically, the Court's decision in Wesberry v. Sanders (1964) mandated that states apportion congressional district boundaries based strictly according to population.

In 1975, Congress enacted P.L. 94-171 requiring the U.S. Census Bureau to coordinate with officials in the individual states before each census. Together the U.S. Census Bureau and state officials define a geographic plan that produces the "small-area population data" needed by state state and local level governments to equally represent the people and to redraw Congressional, State Legislative and other local representational districts.

Republicans To Raise Taxes In Texas

A month ago, just after beating back Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison’s GOP Primary challenge, Perry led White 49% to 43%. Now, seven weeks after incumbent Rick Perry and former Houston Mayor Bill White won their respective primaries, a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Texas voters finds Perry has dropped a point to 48% while Bill White has gained a point to 44% of the vote, his best showing to date:

Fifty-nine percent (40%) of voters in Texas currently disapprove of the job Perry is doing as governor, including 22% who strongly disapprove. Perry has a slight lead among male voters and breaks roughly even among women. Voters not affiliated with either party give Perry a modest five-point edge over White.

Perry has a very favorable rating among 20% of voters and a very unfavorable rating of 22%. White has a very favorable rating among 21% of Texas voters and very unfavorably rating of 16%.

Perry picks up 75% of the votes among Texans who strongly favor repeal of health reform legislation. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Texas voters favor repeal of the health care plan, including 58% who strongly favor repeal while just 28% are oppose repeal, including 23% who strongly oppose repeal. White gets 89% of the votes among the group who oppose repeal.

Ten percent (10%) of Texas voters rate the economy as good or excellent. Forty percent (40%) think it's in poor shape.

Thirty-two percent (32%) say the economy is getting better, while 46% believe it's getting worse. [In January 35% believed the economy was getting worse.] Eighteen percent (18%) say it's staying about the same.

Read the full Rasmussen Report.

"Houston Chronicle: Ailing economy worries Texans, could hurt Perry:"

Vacant car lots, shuttered businesses and the grind of bad economic news is wearing down Texans' belief in a better tomorrow, according to a new survey of state voters, and that could be even worse news for Gov. Rick Perry.

While Perry touts that his strong conservative leadership has created a robust Texas economy, his 48% against White's 44% showing in the Rasmussen poll shows that a lot of Texans are starting to notice that Perry's strong conservative leadership has wrought some real problems for Texas:

• Almost 1 million Texans are unemployed, a state record.
• 5,550 Texans continue to lose their health coverage each week
• Texas leads the nation in percentage of residents without health insurance with only 49.5 percent of Texas residents covered by employer-sponsored insurance [DMN]
• Texas' state debt has doubled under Perry.
  
• The property tax swap Perry passed in '06 created a permanent structural deficit in our state budget, which is contributing to an expected $11-$15 billion shortfall going into the 2011 Legislative Session.
• A recent report showed the Texas Enterprise Fund is "not creating jobs as promised."
• Health care premiums have increased 91.6% since Perry became Governor
• Tuition continues to rise at Texas' colleges and universities
• Utility rates continue to rise, and some utility companies and Perry thinks that is just fine.
• Rick Perry's property tax increase is hurting our local schools
• The student dropout rate in Texas is upwards of 30 percent, and as high as 50 percent in some large urban districts.
• Texas currently has the third-highest teen pregnancy rate in the United States and “the highest rate of repeat teen births.
  
• The rate of student pregnancies has increased as much as 57 percent and rates of sexually transmitted diseases are rising in some urban school districts.
  

Originally posted at Jobsanger blog:
Texas is in financial trouble. The state will have a deficit of at least $8 billion in the next biennium, and that deficit could be as large as $11 or $12 billion. Part of the problem has been caused by the recession. But another part of the problem is due to Republican playing politics, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

About a year ago, Governor Perry turned down more than a half-billion dollars in funds to help the unemployed in Texas. Playing to his right-wing base, Perry said Texas didn't need the money and accepting it would force Texas to abide by federal government rules (to extend unemployment benefits).

More recently, He has refused to sign on to national standards for education, even though Texas should be exceeding those standards instead of refusing to come up to them. This is costing the state another $700 million dollars (at least). In addition, this refusal to meet federal education standards could cost Texas it's share of Title I education funds.

Texas has also cut property taxes, while creating a multi-million dollar fund for huge giveaways to corporate interests willing to move to Texas. Now the lower taxes, corporate giveaways and refusal to accept federal funds have combined with the recession to put the state in dire financial straits. The state will have a deficit of at least $8 billion in the next biennium, and that deficit could be as large as $11 or $12 billion.

Perry has already told all state agencies to cut their operations by 5% -- this on top of other cuts forced on these agencies in recent years. Many of these vital state agencies are now operating on a bare-bones budget, and are struggling to meet their obligations. More cuts are simply out of the question if they are to successfully complete their missions.

So how is the state going to meet their constitutional mandate of a balanced budget in the next biennium? That's simple. The state Republican leadership has painted themselves into a corner, and the only way out is to raise taxes. Of course, they won't raise any taxes on corporations. That would be unthinkable for these corporate-owned Republicans.

No, it is far more likely they will raise only the most regressive taxes, so that the new tax burden will fall most heavily on workers and the poor. And that is exactly what they are considering -- more sales taxes (the most regressive of all taxes, since it means that those making the least will pay the largest percentage of their income in the new taxes).

The sales tax in Texas is not applicable to everything sold in the state. There are many exemption including food, haircuts, children's day care, bottled water, dental work, tattoos, pedicures, gasoline and a host of other products and services. According to the Texas Comptroller, these exemptions total about $30 billion a year.

The Republican legislature has already begun hearings on cutting out some of these exemptions, and lobbyists are already gearing up to make sure their product or service remains exempt. It will be an interesting and messy fight when the new legislature meets in early 2011, but two things are clear right now. Taxes will be raised, and most of the burden for those new taxes will be borne by those who can least afford it.

I'm sure the Republicans will try to claim they didn't raise taxes, since they will be extending the sales tax to new products and/or services instead of raising the sales tax rate. But don't let them fool you. Texans will pay new and higher taxes, and it will be the Republicans who impose those higher taxes.