MOMocrats Blog Talk Radio - 01/12/2011

Listen to MOMocrats talk about the attempted assassination of U.S. Rep. from Arizona Gabrielle Giffords Jan 12 2011

Daily Show: Arizona Shootings Reaction

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart - Arizona Shootings Reaction Stewart's comments reflect the sentiments of the editorial board of this blog.

Texas Budget Deficit at $27 Billion, Says Texas Comptroller Susan Combs

Texas is expected to collect $72.2 billion in taxes, fees and other general revenue during the 2012-13 budget, down from the $87 billion used in the current two-year budget, Comptroller Susan Combs announced Monday.

That puts the shortfall at $27 billion given that maintaining services would run $99 billion for biennium.

Combs’ estimate dictates how much the Legislature will have to spend in the upcoming budget on education, prisons, health and human services and a slew of other state functions.

Even with the $9.4 billion rainy day fund, the state would still not have enough to maintain services at their current levels, which would run $99 billion according to agency budget requests.

Though Texas is facing a budget shortfall of roughly the same magnitude as California, it has gotten nearly no notice in the mainstream press, and at this point, there’s practically nothing left in the state’s budget to cut besides public safety, education and health care spending (while Texas already has some of the lowest per-pupil spending rates and the highest number of those without health insurance).

In September, Gov. Rick Perry guessed the state was facing a $10-11 billion budget shortfall for its fiscal 2012-2013 budget, and refused serious comment on reports that his budget gap might be larger. Not only did Perry severely underestimate the depth of his state’s budget woes, but he has also spent the last few years lecturing Washington D.C. on its supposed fiscal improprieties, giving speech after speech in which he held up Texas as the economic model for the nation to follow. Just last week, he said that Congress needs to propose a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, or else “the hard work that Texas and states like ours have done to make prudent fiscal decisions will be washed away by Washington’s growing avalanche of excess”:

“I am convinced that a constitutional limit on Washington’s spending sprees and irresponsible borrowing is the only boundary they will understand and heed. Otherwise, the hard work that Texas and states like ours have done to make prudent fiscal decisions will be washed away by Washington’s growing avalanche of excess.” [Source]

“Americans are growing ever more aware of this spending explosion, and increasingly interested in grabbing the throttle, so they can slow down Washington’s runaway train. I’m convinced that the hardworking citizens of our state and country simply want government to handle the basics, then get out of the way, as we have done here in Texas.” [Source]

“I don’t suspect I’m the only person in this room who is concerned about a national debt that has blown past $11 trillion and a federal deficit that is well over $1 trillion… Fortunately, we have taken the opposite approach here in Texas.” [Source]

“In Texas and South Carolina, we’ve focused on improving “soil conditions” for businesses by cutting taxes, reforming our legal system and our workers’ compensation system. We’d humbly suggest that Congress take a page from those playbooks by focusing on targeted tax relief paid for by cutting spending, not by borrowing.” [Source]

As Paul Krugman wrote in a NYTime OpEd, “Texas is where the modern conservative theory of budgeting — the belief that you should never raise taxes under any circumstances, that you can always balance the budget by cutting wasteful spending — has been implemented most completely. If the theory can’t make it in Texas were Republicans have dominated state government for more than a decade, it can’t make it anywhere.” And it seems the theory can’t make it there.

Click here to read the comptroller’s report (PDF)

Between A Rock And A Hard Place

Cross post from the West Texas Jobsanger blog
by Ted McLaughlin

The building pictured right is the capitol building of the State of Texas. It will once again be a bustling place starting on Tuesday, January 11th, when the legislature meets for its biennial session (unlike most other states, the Texas legislature only meets once every two years -- on the second Tuesday of each odd-numbered year).

This is also the week that the state's comptroller gives her official verdict on what the state's budget looks like for the next two years. And it is expected that the legislature will find themselves, as my grandmother used to say, between a rock and a hard place. The comptroller is expected to announce that the state will have a budget shortfall of between $21 and $25 billion dollars -- a huge deficit for a total budget of around $95 billion dollars.

Even knowing they would have a huge budget shortfall to face in this legislative session the Republicans campaigned on a platform of no new taxes. They promised voters that they could fix the deficit with cuts to government services alone -- cuts that would not damage the necessary services delivered by government. It was a promise that will be impossible to keep, but the voters fell for it and gave the Republicans huge majorities in both houses of the legislature.

To keep their promise the Republicans would have to cut all state agencies and other state outlays by about 26%. This is in addition to a couple of 10% cuts that have already been done and a 5% cut that is currently underway. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that there is no way the services delivered by the state's agencies can survive such a massive cut (on top of the cuts already done). Services will suffer, and in some cases may disappear altogether. In addition, the state's schools would be in serious trouble if the state contribution to education was cut by such a massive amount.

The three biggest items in the state budget are criminal justice (Department of Criminal Justice, Texas Youth Commission, Department of Public Safety, etc.), education (elementary & high schools, higher education, etc.) and human services (AFDC, Medicaid, Food Stamps, Child Protective Services, Adult Protective Services, etc.). Since these are the biggest items in the budget, then it makes sense that they would have to suffer the biggest cuts.

That's not going to be easy though. Cuts to criminal justice is not going to be popular with the public. It will mean thousands of criminals being dumped back into the communities with little or no supervision and no help to find jobs (which don't exist anyway) or programs to help with drug and alcohol problems (also severely cut by the state). A Republican legislature is not going to like the public uproar this will create.

Cuts to human services will also be hard to do. Cuts to programs partially funded by the federal government, like Medicaid or Food Stamps, would result in a loss of federal funds and put the state in an even bigger financial bind. And cuts to programs like Child or Adult Protective Services will just result in more children and elderly Texans being abused and mistreated (the kind of things guaranteed to make negative headlines and public outrage).

Education is even tougher. Texas already ranks near the bottom of all states in the amount of money it provides for education per pupil. And considering that the dropout rate is near 30% for Texas high schools, it would seem outrageous that cuts to education would be on the table for legislative consideration -- but they are. It would seem that tax cuts for wealthy Texans is more important than the education of Texas students.

Making matters even worse for the Republican legislature is the fact that although they were elected on a platform of not raising taxes, a new newspaper poll shows significant majorities of Texas citizens are opposed to cuts in education and human services. The survey, conducted by Blum & Weprin Associates for several newspapers, shows that 70% of the public opposes any cuts to education (high schools and elementary schools). Although 53% would allow cuts to higher education, only 11% would approve of large cuts even there.

And Texans are not much more responsive to cuts in human services. About 62% of Texans oppose cuts in health care to children or low-to-moderate-income families.

This definitely puts the legislature in a difficult predicament. Although elected on a promise not to raise taxes, the public definitely opposes significant cuts in the parts of the budget that contains the most spending. They can either make the public mad by raising taxes or make the public mad by cutting necessary and popular programs. And either way, the Republicans must shoulder the blame since they have the governor's office and huge majorities in both houses.

I suspect they will do a little of both -- cut the budget and raise taxes. But they will raise taxes in a sneaky way so they can have some deniability -- such as broadening the sales tax base to include items now exempt instead of raising the tax rate, and raising the fees for many services like driver's licenses, marriage licenses and hunting licenses. They will then claim they kept their word since a fee is not a tax. It's not true of course, but that's what they'll claim anyway. There's only one thing we can be sure of -- taxes and fees on corporations and the rich will not be raised. Texas has the most regressive taxes in the nation and that will stay the same.

This dog-and-pony show will start on Tuesday, and it should be interesting to see how the Republicans get themselves out of the mess they have created with their past actions. The only good thing is that this time they can't blame the Democrats for their own actions.

Related:

• One Huge State Budget Crisis That Everyone Refuses To Talk About

Political World Stunned By AZ Congresswoman's Shooting

TUCSON, Ariz. – Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) of Arizona was shot in the head Saturday by a gunman who opened fire outside a grocery store during a meeting with voters, killing a federal judge and five others, including one 9 year old child who was born on 9/11/2001. Giffords was reportedly shot in the head after a man approached the event and began firing, also hitting 18 other people, including three of Giffords staffers. Rep. Giffords is one of 20 Democratic lawmakers targeted with gun cross hairs on Sarah Palin's political action committee map of the US.

In Sheriff Clarence Dupnik’s press conference tonight, he said that law enforcement are “actively in pursuit” of a second suspect in the shooting.

President Obama called the shooting an "unspeakable tragedy." "We do not yet have all the answers," he said in a statement. "What we do know is that such a senseless and terrible act of violence has no place in a free society."

Pima County Sheriff Clarence Dupnik said Giffords was the target of a gunman whom he described as mentally unstable and possibly acting along with an accomplice. He said Giffords was among 13 people wounded in the melee that killed six people, including Arizona's chief federal judge, a 9-year-old girl and an aide for the Democratic lawmaker. He said the rampage ended only after two people tackled the gunman.

Doctors were optimistic about Giffords surviving as she was responding to commands from doctors despite having a bullet go through her head. "With guarded optimism, I hope she will survive, but this is a very devastating wound," said Dr. Richard Carmona, the former surgeon general who lives in Tucson.

The sheriff pointed to the vitriolic political rhetoric that has consumed the country as he denounced the shooting that claimed several of his friends as victims, including U.S. District Judge John Roll. The judge celebrated Mass on Saturday morning like he does every day before stopping by to say hello to his good friend Giffords.

"When you look at unbalanced people, how they respond to the vitriol that comes out of certain mouths about tearing down the government. The anger, the hatred, the bigotry that goes on in this country is getting to be outrageous," the sheriff said. "And unfortunately, Arizona I think has become the capital. We have become the mecca for prejudice and bigotry."

After Giffords voted in favor of the health-care overhaul in March, she said that vandals had broken the glass door of her Tucson office. "The rhetoric is incredibly heated, not just the calls but the emails, the slurs," she told MSNBC at the time. "Things have really gotten spun up." She added: "We do have these polarized parts of our parties that really get excited, and that's where ... all of us have to come together and say, 'OK, there's a fine line here.' "

That same month, Sarah Palin's political action committee posted a map of the US, showing the locations of the 20 Democratic members of Congress, including Giffords, it was targeting for defeat. Each location was marked by an image of a gun cross hairs.

Palin's camp dismissed charges that she was encouraging acts of violence, saying she had spoken out against violence. But Giffords herself was one of many who spoke out against the image, telling MSNBC: "When people do that, they've gotta realize there's consequences to that action."

Palin, who has never publicly advocated violence against fellow US politicians, has often employed "lock and load" rhetorical attacks that leverage imagery and terminology familiar to gun owners and evocative of firearms. She said last March that her supporters should "reload" and "aim for" Democrats, ostensibly with their votes.

Jesse Kelly, Giffords' Republican opponent in the 2010 mid-term elections, similarly employed guns in a campaign event. He staged an event in July asking supporters to "get on target" and "remove Gabrielle Giffords from office" -- all while shooting "a fully automatic M16 with Jesse Kelly."

Huffingtonpost: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who represents a district adjacent to Gabrielle Giffords's, said that Saturday's shooting is a consequence of the vitriolic rhetoric that has arisen over the past few years among extreme elements of the Tea Party. "The climate has gotten so toxic in our political discourse, setting up for this kind of reaction for too long. It's unfortunate to say that. I hate to say that," Grijalva said in an interview with The Huffington Post. "If you're an opponent, you're a deadly enemy," Grijalva said of the mindset among Arizona extremists. "Anybody who contributed to feeding this monster had better step back and realize they're threatening our form of government."

Keith Olbermann Issues Special Comment On Arizona Shooting: 'Violence Has No Place In Democracy'

The Texas Omen

NYTimes Op-Ed
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: January 6, 2011

These are tough times for state governments. Huge deficits loom almost everywhere, from California to New York, from New Jersey to Texas.

Wait — Texas? Wasn’t Texas supposed to be thriving even as the rest of America suffered? Didn’t its governor declare, during his re-election campaign, that “we have billions in surplus”? Yes, it was, and yes, he did. But reality has now intruded, in the form of a deficit expected to run as high as $25 billion over the next two years.

And that reality has implications for the nation as a whole. For Texas is where the modern conservative theory of budgeting — the belief that you should never raise taxes under any circumstances, that you can always balance the budget by cutting wasteful spending — has been implemented most completely. If the theory can’t make it there, it can’t make it anywhere.

How bad is the Texas deficit?
--- Click here for REST OF STORY!... ---
Related:

• One Huge State Budget Crisis That Everyone Refuses To Talk About

MOMocrats Blog Talk Radio - 01/05/2011

Listen to internet radio with MOMocrats on Blog Talk Radio Freewheeling discussion by a panel of MOMocrats and special guests - This week talking about how conservatives have taken over Internet social media channels to promote their propaganda about health care, liberals and more...

Texas Welcomes Nuclear Waste Dump Over The Ogallala Aquifer

The Ogallala Aquifer holds as much water as Lake Huron, but spreads over an area seven times the area. The Ogallala aquifer, one of the most vital water sources for American agriculture, is the single water source for residential and agricultural communities across eight Midwestern states.

The Texas Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Compact Commission (TLLRWDCC), which manages the state's radioactive-waste dump, voted 5-2 on Tuesday to approve rules governing the process for accepting the out-of-state material.

The new rules pave the way for another 35 states states to export low-level radioactive waste to a remote 1,340-acre Andrews County landfill in West Texas along the Texas-New Mexico border. The landfill is owned by Dallas-based Waste Control Specialists, LLC.

Under the new rules the site will permanently store low-level radioactive waste—contaminated materials and equipment from nuclear plants, research laboratories and hospitals. The material includes everything from parts from dismantled nuclear-energy plants to booties worn by scientists working in labs where radioactive materials are present.

In 2007, Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) staff recommended denying the radioactive waste license, saying that "groundwater is likely to intrude into the proposed disposal units and contact the waste from either or both of two water tables near the proposed facility." Radioactive contamination of water could result.

The West Texas dump, which will be the fourth such storage site in the US, is mired in controversy, in part because the dump, set to open by year's end, was conceived and built to take waste from only two states—Texas and Vermont, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Texas Commissioner Bob Wilson has opposed the radioactive waste dumping plans and the rules for some time. He voted against the rules on Tuesday, but largely because he fears the commission is unprepared to deal with the enormity of the task once the 1,340-acre site begins accepting waste from other states. The commission, he said, is largely unfunded, getting $25,000 a year from Vermont and money from Texas only to cover meeting and travel costs. In addition, he fears expanding the importation of waste will interfere with the site's capacity. He also questions whether it will be as profitable as is being predicted. "I thought it was premature," Wilson said.

Trevor Lovell, a spokesman for Public Citizen, one of the most outspoken opponents of the plan, said his group will meet Wednesday to decide the next step, but he said a lawsuit was possible. "The commission that is moving forward on this has no staff, has no bylaws, and yet they are attempting to make very substantial changes and rules that would allow in radioactive waste from the entire country," Lovell said.

Lovell also noted that the landfill is over the Ogallala aquifer that provides water to one-quarter of the country's irrigated land as well as drinking water to thousands of people. "We don't feel that it's been demonstrated that the landfill is safe," Lovell said. Critics of the new radioactive waste dumping rule say that while Simmons will rake billions of dollars from the waste dump operation over the next 15 years, Texans will get the financial burden of managing dump for 10,000 years.

Opponents charge the TLLRWDCC's rule change process and vote to allow Waste Control Specialists to dump radioactive waste from 36 states at the West Texas landfill demonstrates a conflict of interest between the TLLRWDCC, most of whose members were appointed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and the site's owner, Waste Control Specialists LLC, whose main investor, Harold Simmons, is a Governor Perry's 2^nd largest individual donor at almost $900,000. The Commission is comprised of 8 members, 6 of whom are Perry appointees. Opponents also charge the commission rigged the 30 day comment period to transpire during the holidays, when most people are too busy to pay much attention to matters of civic engagement, to avoid a repeat of the 2,000 comments from Texans opposed to the rule that the commission received when the rule was first proposed in 2010.

Gov. Perry nuke waste "czar" appointee Michael Ford, chairman of the TLLRWDCC, first proposed a new rule making Texas a 36 state radioactive waste dump site nearly a year ago, but polls showed a majority of Texans didn’t like the proposal. When Bill White made it an election issue, accusing Governor Perry of making the state a radioactive waste dump to benefit his donor, Waste Control Specialists owner Harold Simmons, Ford tabled the proposal.

The day after election day the TLLRWDCC voted 5-2 to repost a rule allowing out-of-state radioactive waste generators – primarily nuclear power plants from 36 states on the coasts and in the Midwest – to dump their waste at the West Texas landfill. The TLLRWDCC officially reposted the 36 state radioactive waste dumping rule the day after Thanksgiving, ensuring the 30 day comment would end the day after Christmas day.

Waste Control Specialists owner Harold Simmons stands to earn billions of dollars from his radioactive waste business at his 1,340-acre Andrews County landfill. After Simmons lost $1.4 billion from 2008 to 2009 he told Forbes he was “planning to make it back with Valhi’s [parent of Waste Control Specialists] radioactive waste disposal license.” Simmons is listed as #176 on the 2010 Forbes list of richest people on the planet, and the 55th richest in the US, with a net worth of $5 billion.

Simmons said in a February 2010 D Magazine interview, “It took us six years to get legislation on this passed in Austin, but now we’ve got it all passed. We first had to change the law to where a private company can own a license [to handle radioactive waste], and we did that. Then we got another law passed that said they can only issue one license. Of course, we were the only ones that applied.”

The D Magazine story observed: “If things go as planned, Simmons’ nuclear waste dump in West Texas will exist on a scale that is hard to imagine. Waste Control Specialists is currently licensed by the state of Texas to accept up to 57 million cubic feet of low-level radioactive waste from federal sources. Waste Control Specialists has the space to expand its facility to more than 20 square miles.”

Gov. Rick Perry's big donors fare well in Texas; Many of his mega-donors have won hefty contracts or appointments.

One Huge State Budget Crisis That Everyone Refuses To Talk About

You know the conservative storyline that "liberal states" like Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and California are supposed to be in huge financial trouble thanks to bloated governments, business-unfriendly regulations, and strong public sector unions.

But there's one state, which is high up on the list of financially troubled states, that neither conservatives nor the "liberally biased press" are talking about. The reason no one is talking about it is that it doesn't fit the conservative storyline.

The state is Texas.

A budget shortfall as high as $25 billion is projected for the $95 billion 2012-2013 state budget as lawmakers head into the 2011 biennial legislative session, according to estimates from economists and the comptroller's office.

Leadership in the Texas Legislature, which has been dominated by conservative Republicans for a decade, is not expected to support any discussion about raising taxes to fill the multi-billion dollar hole. The state's Republican leadership has already ordered state agencies to cut their budgets by 5%-10% several several years running, and those agencies are currently under a new order to cut their budgets one more time. Most state agencies are already operating on a bare bones budget and if much more is cut from their budgets they will not be able to deliver the services they are mandated to deliver.

Gov. Perry and some conservative Texas lawmakers have advocated "opting out" of Medicaid altogether and closing or privatizing state schools to save money. If you think the cost of sending your kids to a state college is high now, think what "privatized" colleges will cost. Or, if mom suffers from Alzheimer's disease and needs to be in an Alzheimer's care home, the kids will have to pay mom's entire $6,000 per month care bill out of their own pocket, because there will be no Medicaid. (Opting out of Medicaid would actually be a one-two punch to Texas' economy -- Medicaid and the Lege: Throw 'Em in the Street)

So why haven't we heard more about Texas, one of the most important economy's in America? Well, it's because it doesn't fit the conservative script; It's a pro-business, lean-spending, low tax, no-union state, so the state government's budget should be in great shape.

But if you want to make comparisons between US states and ailing European countries, think of Texas as being like America's Ireland. Ireland was once praised as a model for economic growth: conservatives loved it for its pro-business, anti-tax, low-spending strategy, and hailed it as the way forward for all of Europe. Then it blew up.

This is the sleeper state budget crisis of 2011, and it conservatives will continue to praise the state's conservative government, right up until the moment before it blows up.

Read more:

• http://www.businessinsider.com/texas-state-budget-crisis-2011-1#
• http://www.texastribune.org/texas-taxes/2011-budget-shortfall/
• http://collindemsnews.blogspot.com/2010/10/texas-deficit-balloons.html
  

Four New U.S. House Seats For Texas in 2012 - Will Collin Co. Get One?

The U.S. Census Bureau announced on Tuesday, December 21, 2010 that the 2010 Census showed the population of the United States on April 1, 2010, was 308,745,538 -- an increase of 9.7 percent over the 2000 U.S. population of 281,421,906. The most populous state was California (37,253,956); the least populous, Wyoming (563,626). The state that gained the most numerically since the 2000 Census was Texas (up 4,293,741 to 25,145,561) and the state that gained the most as a percentage of its 2000 Census count was Nevada (up 35.1% to 2,700,551). Regionally, the South and the West picked up the bulk of the population increase, 14,318,924 and 8,747,621, respectively. But the Northeast and the Midwest also grew: 1,722,862 and 2,534,225, respectively. U.S. Census Bureau Director Bob Groves says that since 1940, 79 congressional seats have shifted from the Midwest and Northeast to the South and West. "Texas gained the most seats this decade, a total of four — and indeed that state has gained seats for seven consecutive decades," Groves says.

U.S. Census Interactive Map

Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution calls for a census of the nation's population every 10 years to apportion the U.S. House of Representatives seats among the states. The 2010 apportionment winner is Texas with four additional House seats. Texas also gains four more presidential electoral votes and will be eligible for a greater share of federal money for various services. Florida will have two new U.S. House seats, giving that state a total of 27 representatives -- the same as New York. States receiving one additional seat each are: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. The biggest congressional losers are New York and Ohio, both losing two House seats, with Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania each losing just one House seat. California still has the most representatives at 53, but for the first time in its history it did not gain a House seat.

The decennial census for Texas totaled to 25,145,561 people living in the state in the first half of 2010 for a 20.6% increase over the number of people living in the state in 2000. While the recently completed 2010 Census documented a marked slowdown in the growth of the U.S. population at 9.7 percent, Texas more than doubled that rate, courtesy of the burgeoning Texas Hispanic and black populations. While the Texas Anglo population increased at a rate less than the national average, Texas Hispanics increased by 33 percent and African-Americans by 16 percent. If these demographic trends continue, Hispanics should become the largest ethnic group in Texas within five years and become a majority of the state population by 2029. Thus, the fuel entitling the state to 36 rather than 32 seats in the reconfigured 435-member U.S. House of Representatives came entirely from minority communities that traditional vote Democratic. The U.S. House Texas delegation currently stands at 32, with 23 Republicans and 9 Democrats.

Most of the Texas growth was in the urban areas and in South Texas -- areas where Democrats traditionally draw the largest share of votes. That sets up an explosive situation when the Republican-dominated Texas Legislature formulates a redistricting plan during its 140-day session that convenes on January 11, 2011. The 150 member Texas House of Representatives will be made up of 49 Democrats and 101 Republicans when it convenes in January. (State Rep. Allan Ritter and State. Rep. Aaron Pena switched from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in December 2010.) A fair redrawing of the new congressional lines must allow the minority populations whose growth created the additional seats the opportunity to choose their representatives. Should the Republican-dominated Texas Legislature gerrymander the new districts to disenfranchise the larger minority populations, the gerrymandered congressional map would likely be challenged by the Obama Administration Justice Department, which under the Voting Rights Act must approve any changes affecting minority representation.

The last Texas redistricting plan, championed by former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay in 2003, tilted the numbers in favor of the GOP by packing minorities into fewer districts while scattering the rest in districts dominated by Republicans. As a result, only two Texas Democratic representatives, Houston's Gene Green and Austin's Lloyd Doggett, are Anglo. Neither Houston or Dallas, both of which have large concentrations of Hispanics, have Hispanic congressional representatives.

Based on the 2010 Census count of 25,145,561 people living in Texas, the ideal population of a Texas congressional district is 698,488, the ideal senate district is 811,147, the ideal state house district is 167,637, and the ideal State Board of Education district is 1,676,371. While the Texas legislature goes into session on January 11th, serious redistricting efforts can't take place until the Census Bureau releases its detailed census breakdown. The Census Bureau expects to release the detailed county and block level population data needed to redistrict in late February or early March. (Census data release schedule - Texas redistricting information)

Three of the new congressional seats will probably land in areas that have seen the greatest population growth. Using county growth numbers taken from Nielsen Claritas market estimates for 2010, Collin County's population grew 64.5% to 808,727 residents in the ten years since the 2000 census. That compares to U.S. Census estimated population growth through 2009 of 19.7% for Harris County, 57.1% for Fort Bend County and 10.5% for Dallas County. Keep in mind that the largest counties are (state) constitutionally mandated to have all districts nested within county lines. Democratic political consultant Matt Angle predicts new Hispanic districts for the San Antonio and Dallas areas and a new Republican district will likely go into northwest Harris County.

Given Collin County's population growth over the last ten years it seem likely the county will see some adjustment to some or all of the various district lines, including for the Congressional, Texas House, Texas Senate and State Board of Education districts. Some interesting demographic analysis from a 2010 Nielsen Claritas market report for Collin County shows the county:

• is the 6th most populous and fastest growing county in Texas;
• is one of the fastest growing counties in the U.S.;
• has a relatively young population with 28% of the residents under 18 years, 5% of the residents over 65 years and a median resident age of 34 years;
• will likely reach an estimated population count of 1.2 million people by 2030;
• is among the few Texas counties with more than a half-million people;
• had the highest sustained growth rate (64.5%) of Texas counties since the 2000 Census; and
• had a median Household Income in 2010 of $83,040, making it the wealthiest county in Texas.

Data for Collin Co. - 2009 Data for TX Congressional Dist. 3 - 2009 Data for TX Congressional Dist. 4 - 2009

Collin County currently holds most of Texas Congressional District 3, represented by Republican Sam Johnson since he first won election in 1991. The 3rd congressional district includes the county's densely populated southwest quadrant and a small corner of northern Dallas county. The demographic makeup of Collin County's portion of the 3rd district has changed greatly since Johnson was first elected to office in the early 1990's.

The 1990 census listed over 80% of Collin County's citizens as "White," non-Hispanic. U.S. census estimates for 2009 show the non-Hispanic white portion of the population had dropped to only 65.4% of the county's population. According to 2009 Census estimates, 14.5% of the county is Hispanic-American, 10.2% of the county is Asian-American and not quite 8.2% of the population is African-American.

A December 2009 National Journal Online article detailing the growth of minority populations in congressional districts across the nation shows that non-Hispanic white Americans have decreased in Johnson's district (that currently includes a portion of Dallas Co.) to 54.9 percent while the district's minority American makeup has increased 8.4 percent to 45 percent, according to the National Journal report. (pie chart right)

The remaining three quarters of Collin County's geographic area is included in Texas Congressional District 4, currently represented by Republican Ralph Hall. Hall's District 4 geographic area includes all or parts of Bowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Delta, Fannin, Farnklin, Grayson, Hopkins, Hunt, Lamar, Morris, Rains, Red River and Rockwall counties., so the district's demographic numbers mask the true makeup for Collin County's portion of the 4th congressional district. The detailed 2010 Census data will give the current demographic break down for all sections of Collin Co. (Census data release schedule)

Current Dist. 3 in Yellow and Dist. 4 in Pink

2011 Texas Legislative Session To Call For Constitutional Amendment To Enforce States’ Sovereignty

Several Texas Republicans have filed legislation aimed at reaffirming states’ rights and providing a constitutional mechanism to annul federal laws and regulations. The calls for amending the U.S. Constitution go a step beyond the ‘sovereignty’ resolutions pushed for in 2009.

Last session, Texas Rep. Brandon Creighton (R-Conroe) led the way on legislation to reaffirm the Tenth Amendment, which says powers not provided to the federal government in the Constitution are explicitly reserved to the states. Out of five pieces of legislation introduced on the topic, only Creighton’s House Concurrent Resolution 50 made it out of committee. HCR 50 passed the House by a margin of 99-36 (with all of the ‘nay’ votes belonging to Democrats) before dying in the Senate.

This session, Creighton has introduced the similar HCR 16. Additionally, state Sens. Glenn Hegar (R-Katy) and Jane Nelson (R-Lewisville) have introduced Senate Concurrent Resolution 1 toward the same end. Hegar introduced the similar SCR 39 in 2009. Those ‘sovereignty’ resolutions basically would send a message to members of Congress requesting they repeal federal laws that Texas lawmakers think are unconstitutional.

For the upcoming session, Creighton is going further — his HCR 17 and House Joint Resolution 50 urges Congress to call a constitutional convention for the purpose of proposing and ratifying a constitutional amendment allowing any federal law to be repealed by consensus of two-thirds of the individual states’ legislatures.

Meanwhile, state Rep. Vicki Truitt (R-Keller) proposed HCR 19 for the same purpose. Truitt’s resolution specifically cites the Sixteenth and Seventeenth Amendments as creating a “constitutional imbalance” in favor of the federal government against the states. The Sixteenth Amendment enabled the federal income tax, while the Seventeenth Amendment provided for direct election of U.S. senators, rather than having the state legislatures choose them. In a news release, Truitt said the federal health care reform law is “an example and the greatest episode” in unfunded mandates of the states. According to the news release, Truitt was inspired to file the resolution after reading an editorial in the Wall Street Journal written by Georgetown University law professor Randy Barnett and Virginia state House Speaker William J. Howell.

For the 2011 session, Vice-chair of the Texas House Appropriations Committee, State Rep. Richard Raymond (D-San Antonio), has filed two resolutions urging the federal government to eliminate deficit spending and balance the budget from year to year. He has authored similar legislation regularly since at least 1995, none of which has passed the committee stage.

Raymond’s House Concurrent Resolution 23 asks Congress to “propose and submit to the states for ratification an amendment to the United States Constitution to provide for a federal balanced budget.” His House Joint Resolution 34 would put Texas legislators on record as supporting a proposed Constitutional amendment for a balanced federal budget. In 2009, Raymond’s HCR 73 and HJR 71 attracted two co-authors, state Reps. Diana Maldonado, D-Austin, and Aaron Pena, D-Edinburg. State. Rep. Aaron Pena switched to become affiliated to the Republican Party in December 2010.

The appeals for a constitutional convention of the states have also appeared in legislation aimed at creating a balanced federal budget amendment to the Constitution. There are two ways to propose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution: a two-thirds majority vote in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate; or by a constitutional convention called by two-thirds of state legislatures, according to the National Archives.

2011 Predictions

From the Panhandle Blog Jobsanger:

This is the time of year when a lot of crazy people think they can predict what the future will bring. I must have lost my mind because I've decided to join them and make some political predictions of my own this year. I must have purchased a defective crystal ball though, because I'm not seeing too many good things happening this year. Here's what I see happening in 2011:

* The outsourcing of good American jobs to other countries will continue unabated this year. Any attempts by progressive Democrats to stop or slow it down will be killed by the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.

* The lie that Social Security is in trouble will continue to grow (even though it is fully funded through 2027, and elimination of the tax cap would fund it for decades to come). Attempts will be made to cut benefits and raise the retirement age.

* Unemployment will remain high and no serious job stimulation effort will be passed by Congress (although the Republicans will try to further cut taxes using job creation as their excuse -- in spite of the fact that tax cuts do not create jobs).

* The housing market will not recover in 2011 (and can't recover until the jobless situation is fixed). Foreclosures will remain at all-time highs, and if Congress takes any action at all it will be to make it easier for banks to foreclose.

* The Republicans will not repeal the new health care reform law, but they will defund it (and that's pretty much the same thing).

* Private insurance companies will continue to raise the price of their premiums (and continue to refuse to pay for expensive treatments even for those with that high-priced insurance).

* Millions of Americans will continue to be unable to afford any health insurance coverage.

* Medicare and Medicaid will be cut by Republicans and Blue Dogs, causing even more doctors to refuse to treat elderly and poor patients.

* The huge gap in wealth and income between the richest 1-2% of Americans and the rest of America will grow even wider.

* America's transportation infrastructure will continue to crumble, because the Republican House would rather give the rich more money than put ordinary Americans to work fixing it.

* Global climate change will grow worse as Congress refuses to do anything about it. Taking their lead from America, other countries will also fail to find a solution.

* Toward the end of the year, Michele Bachmann will announce she's running for the senate seat currently held by Senator Amy Klobuchar.

* President Obama's approval ratings will remain in the upper 40's, setting him up for a possible re-election in 2012.

* Texas Republicans will raise taxes and then deny that they did it (claiming it was just an expansion of the "tax base" or the raise involved fees instead of taxes).

* Texas Republicans will pass a "voter ID" bill making voters present a picture ID to be allowed to vote (in addition to their voter registration card), claiming this will prevent voter fraud (although there is no evidence that fraud even exists).

* The Texas legislature will not approve casino-style gambling in the state (and the gambling money and taxes from it will continue to leave the state and go to Louisiana, Oklahoma and Nevada).

Actually, I would love to be wrong about most of the above predictions, but I don't think I am. 2011 is going to be a tough year for America. What do you think?

2011 Election Calendar

May 14, 2011 - Uniform Election Date

The more detailed May 14, 2011 Election Law Calendar is available on the Elections homepage and on the “Conducting Your Elections” pages.
**First Day to File for Place on Ballot (for cities and schools ONLY)(filing deadline for other political subdivisions may vary)	Saturday, February 12, 2011 (first day to file does not move forward)
**Last Day to File for Place on Ballot, Local General Election	Monday, March 14, 2011 at 5:00 p.m. (deadline is extended to next business day) ***Friday, March 18, 2011 (see note below relating to four-year terms)
Last Day to Order General Election	Monday, March 14, 2011 (deadline is extended to next business day)
First Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail	Tuesday, March 15, 2011 (does not apply to FPCA)
Last Day to Register to Vote	Thursday, April 14, 2011
First Day of Early Voting By Personal Appearance	Monday, May 2, 2011
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail (Received, not Postmarked)	Friday, May 6, 2011 (May 7, 2011 is the seventh day, but deadline moves back to preceding business day, Friday)
Last Day of Early Voting By Personal Appearance	Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Constitutional Amendment Election November 8, 2011
See Amendments on the Ballot

These dates are subject to changes from the 2011 legislative session.
**First Day to File for Place on General Election Ballot (for cities and schools ONLY) (filing deadline for other political subdivisions may vary)	Monday, August 8, 2011
Last Day to Order General Election	Wednesday, September 7, 2011
**Last Day to File for Place on General Election Ballot (for local political subdivisions ONLY)	Wednesday, September 7, 2011 at 5:00 p.m.
First Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail	Friday, September 9, 2011 (does not apply to FPCA)
Last Day to Register to Vote	Tuesday, October 11, 2011 (deadline is extended to next business day after Columbus Day)
First Day of Early Voting	Monday, October 24, 2011 (17th day before election day falls on a Saturday, first day moves to next business day)
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail (Received, not Postmarked)	Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Last Day of Early Voting	Friday, November 4, 2011

Pulling For Potter

by Clay Bennett in the Chattanooga Times Free Press

Seasons Greetings With A Christmas Carol

As a holiday offering to all our readers, again, here are the 1938 and 1939 Campbell Playhouse radio broadcast productions of "A Christmas Carol" featuring Orson Welles and Lionel Barrymore. [Mercury Theatre Info]

1938 version featuring Orson Welles as Scrooge. Play starts at 5:30 minutes [MP3] 1939 version featuring Lionel Barrymore as Scrooge (My favorite) Play starts at 3:00 minutes [MP3]

Scrooge Gets A Tax Cut Political Cartoon by Mike Luckovich in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption

From the BOR:

• Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: Texas' $25 Billion Budget Shortfall
• Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: Texas' Dropout Crisis
• Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: Texas Forensic Science Commission
• Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: Ethics Complaints
• Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: Emerging Technology Fund
• Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: Political Appointees
• Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: Secret Schedules
• Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: The $500,000 Land Deal
• Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: Texas Youth Commission
• Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: Teacher Retirement System
• Rick Perry to Launch National Book Tour, Won't Commit to Full Term as Governor

Additional Sources

• Austin American-Statesman - Lawmakers seek answers on Texas' budget outlook
• Austin American-Statesman - Budget mess got going with 2006 property tax cuts
• Austin American-Statesman - Legislative leaders eye spending cuts to deal with looming budget hole
• Austin American-Statesman - Low tax collections make budget shortfall worse
• Austin American-Statesman - Perry campaigns on job creation as state revenue shrinks
• Dallas Morning News - Legislature likely to cut deep to meet possible $25 billion budget gap
• San Antonio Express-News - Perry disputes budget shortfall prediction of $21 billion
• Wall Street Journal - Big Texas Deficit Puts Governor in Tight Spot
• Dallas Morning News - Agency budget cuts small in face of Texas' gaping shortfall
• Burnt Orange Report - Rick Perry's "Bizarre" Budget Claims: Voters Stuck With Bad Case of Deja Vu
• Burnt Orange Report - Debra Medina on Rick Perry's $18 Billion Budget Deficit

Dallas Morning News Endorses White for Governor

Dallas Morning News Editorial: We Recommend White for Governor: Rick Perry's campaign suggests that his cowboy swagger and his disdain for Washington, D.C. should be enough to convince voters that he's the leader Texas needs.

The state's longest-serving governor is so certain his tenure should be extended that Perry has glided through this re-election bid with an impervious air, shrugging off tough questions and offering few specifics. Trust me, Perry tells voters, I know what I'm doing.

But in fact, Perry, 60, has done relatively little during a decade at the helm of state government. He can lay claim to few signature achievements. He lacks allies in the Legislature, and whether the issue is school finance, transportation or juvenile justice, he has not managed to see needed reforms through to conclusion.

The Republican governor is counting on the state's relatively strong economy to secure his third full term in office. But Texas' business-friendly environment predates Perry and will extend beyond his time in office. And now, with a deficit of up to $21 billion looming, more than budget bravado and a "taxes bad" mantra will be required to keep Texas on solid financial footing.

The state needs a solutions-oriented leader who is focused on bolstering Texas – not on doing battle with Washington.
Record of pragmatism

Democrat Bill White is better-suited to steer this ship of state through the challenges ahead.

The former mayor of Houston is a fiscal conservative with a progressive bent. He's more pragmatic than partisan. He's proven himself competent in business and in public office. Indeed, he's a bit of a throwback – in the best Texas tradition of the businessman governor.

We don't make this recommendation lightly. This newspaper has a long history of recommending Rick Perry for office against Democrats ­ from agriculture commissioner to the governor's office. But Texas requires a different kind of leadership at this important juncture.

Bill White is an entrepreneur and an energy expert who succeeded in the private sector before branching out into public service. White, 56, has no use for Perry's swashbuckling, coyote-shooting style. The Democratic candidate is meticulous and analytical, hesitant to overpromise but determined to solve Texas' most pressing problems.

As Houston's mayor, White proved himself to be adept at balancing budgets, managing to cut property tax rates repeatedly. He drew national acclaim for his leadership in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

And White laid waste to the idea that environmentally friendly policies inevitably were bad for business – a myth that Perry perpetuates as he fights to maintain Texas' right to pollute with impunity. In Houston, White struck a careful balance, proving that a city could go green and still be open for business.

As governor, White would be well-positioned to deliver in areas where Perry has fallen short.

For example, Texas' transportation infrastructure needs are daunting and urgent. Yet Perry seems to be stumped when it comes to offering workable funding options for building roads. The governor's go-to move is to blame Washington – and he does, for not sending more money. That's a fine lament, but it won't pay for any new lane miles.

White recognizes the need for new revenue sources and supports allowing counties to call elections to raise funds for transportation projects. This local-option approach has the support of North Texas transportation leaders but would stand a better chance in the Legislature with the backing of the governor.
The blurring of lines

During Perry's decades in elected office and two-plus terms as governor, ethical lines have slowly blurred as more and more high-dollar campaign donors have received appointments or state funds. Perry surrounds himself with a sea of people echoing his views. And he wields his power forcefully, making clear that those who dare to disagree with him can be replaced. When a Texas Tech regent endorsed Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the GOP gubernatorial primary, he said he was pressured to resign by a Perry emissary delivering a definitive message: The governor expects loyalty.

Even more troubling is the governor's apparent loyalty to campaign donors. Perry has played a pivotal role in awarding millions of taxpayer dollars from the Texas Emerging Technology Fund to companies with investors or officers who also happen to be the governor's campaign donors – an uncomfortable and unacceptable arrangement that cries out for an overhaul.

Fortunately, White has outlined a number of ethics reforms that would change the way the governor's office operates. His common-sense proposals include limiting contributions from appointees, extending the waiting period before governor's staff members can work as lobbyists and requiring gubernatorial staffers to file personal financial statements.

While White is better-equipped to navigate the state's budget woes and handle a number of other difficult tasks, his ideas about education have disappointed thus far. He has complained about the emphasis on high-stakes testing but failed to offer a specific alternative that would hold schools accountable. White's views may yet evolve in the realm of education, and this one point of disagreement does not outweigh the Democrat's many other good ideas.

Perry's strident, tea party tone and strong-arm style won't serve Texas well for another four years. While White's focus has been on finding solutions in Austin, Perry has done little more than rail against Washington's problems. The governor's gaze seems to have drifted from the tasks at hand, as he openly discusses his aspirations of elevating his national profile.

White is right when he says that leadership has little to do with delivering a speech and much more to do with having a sense of mission. White is a man with a mission, a leader who will bring a purposeful determination to the governor's office.

Libertarian Kathie Glass, 57, a lawyer, and Green Party candidate Deb Shafto, 71, a retired teacher and business owner, also are on the ballot. But White's broad base of expertise and modern managerial style make him the best choice for governor and earn him our recommendation.

Texas Deficit Balloons

From jobsanger.blogspot
by Ted McLaughlin

We have known for several months now that there will be a deficit in the next biennium for the state of Texas. I say biennium because the Texas legislature only meets once every two years, so they do budgets for two years instead of one. For quite a while now, Texas government has operated with a surplus -- so much so that they have been able to put a little over $8 billion into a "rainy day" fund. But those good economic times are over and its starting to rain -- really hard.

A few months ago it was believed that Texas would have an $8-$10 billion dollar deficit in the next biennium. It didn't take long for that estimate to rise to between $12 and $15 billion dollars. Now the politicians are telling us that the deficit will probably be up above $21.5 billion dollars.

The state's Republican leadership has ordered state agencies to cut their budgets by 5%-10% several times, and those agencies are currently under a new order to cut their budgets one more time. One politician has even said the legislature will have to take a "meat cleaver" approach to the budget next year. Both parties are trying to fool the voters into thinking this huge deficit problem can be solved by simply cutting state services. Unfortunately, that is a lie.

Most state agencies are already operating on a bare bones budget. If much more is cut from their budgets they will not be able to deliver the services to the people that they are mandated to give. And what good is an agency that is incapable of delivering services? The answer to that is no good at all.

In addition, there are some agencies for which if more is cut serious problems will arise. Two of these that instantly come to mind are the Texas Youth Commission (TYC) and the Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ). There is a point beyond which these agencies cannot cut more and still deliver a level of service that protects both the public and state inmates. It would be unacceptable to all of us if the agencies can no longer protect the public, and if the inmates can't be protected from abuse then we are looking at court cases that could cost the state far more than proper budgets for the agencies would cost.

Do we want the state to stop funding the repair and renovation of our roads and bridges? Do we want the state to stop covering children with health insurance, or providing services for mental health and mental retardation? Do we want the state to adequately fund our schools? Do we want enough highway patrolmen and Texas Rangers on the job to protect the public from criminals not in TYC or TDCJ? Do we want the oil & gas industry, the chemical industry, and energy providers to be policed to make sure they are not poisoning our air and water?

As you can see, most (if not all) state agencies provide vital services that the state simply cannot do without. And only a moron could believe a deficit of over $21.5 billion could be eliminated by cutting the money these agencies get. Since the state constitution mandates that the state must balance its budget in each biennium, something else must be done.

Like it or not, taxes are going to have to be raised somehow. And it doesn't matter whether the Republicans or the Democrats win in November, there will be more tax revenue raised. There is simply no other option.

Even though you won't hear it from the politicians new tax revenues and income sources are already being considered. Texas already has one of the highest sales taxes in the nation (Texas loves regressive taxes that hit the poor harder than the rich), but there are many things that have been exempted from that sales tax. That is probably going to end for many of those things.

State leaders will probably not raise the sales tax rate, but they will almost certainly increase the number of things that will be covered by the tax. They'll do it that way so they can say they didn't raise the tax (even though paying a tax on new things is definitely a rise in taxation).

There is also talk of allowing casino gambling which could be heavily taxed, and a new state property tax which would be dedicated to education. About the only new tax that won't be considered is a state income tax (because that would affect the rich, and we can't have that).

So don't be fooled. There are going to be more taxes. It's just a question of what kind and how much.