Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Democratic Primary Nominating Delegate Allocations

In order to win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, a candidate must accumulate 2,382 out of 4,761 available delegate votes to win the nominating vote at the 2016 Democratic National Convention.

There are two basic types of Democratic convention delegates: pledged and unpledged (super) delegates. A candidate is eligible to win a share of the pledged delegates at stake in a state if he or she receives at least 15 percent of votes cast in a primary or the preferences expressed in a caucus, either in a congressional district or statewide. Individuals who are pledged delegates are "pledged" to vote for the candidate to whom they are allocated at the Democratic National Convention. There are expected to be approximately 4,051 pledged delegates at the convention. There are three categories of pledged delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates and pledged party leader and elected officials, or PLEO delegates.

Congressional district delegates are allocated proportionally based on the results of the primary or caucus in a congressional district. The number of district delegates that are apportioned to each congressional district is determined by the Democratic vote in each district in recent elections. At-large delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide results in the primary or caucus. Pledged party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates) are delegates by virtue of their office; PLEO delegates can include statewide elected officials, state legislators, local elected officials or party leaders. PLEO delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide results of the primary or caucus.

Unpledged delegates, often referred to as "super delegates," are automatic delegates to the convention and are not required to pledge their support to a presidential candidate. Unpledged delegates are members of the Democratic National Committee, Democratic members of Congress, Democratic governors, or distinguished party leaders - such as former presidents or vice presidents.  (List of Super Delegates)

There are expected to be approximately 710 unpledged Democratic convention super delegates in 2016, which makes up 15 percent of the total convention delegate number. If an unpledged delegate is unable to attend the convention, an alternate delegate is not substituted as a replacement.

An Associated Press survey conducted in November found 357 super delegates "planned" to support Hillary Clinton, 14 planned to support Bernie Sanders, and 339 remain publicly uncommitted and available to either candidate.

While super delegates are free to back whomever they choose at the convention, to count 357 super delegates as sure votes for Clinton at this stage is putting the cart before the horse. It’s highly unlikely they will come into play in the first place. If Sanders were to arrive at the convention with a majority of bound delegates, but fewer than the 2,382 needed to secure the nomination, it’s hard to imagine the super delegates would dare to buck the will of Democratic primary voters by swinging the count to Clinton’s favor.

For more perspective on super delegates, click this link: WaPo: Will superdelegates pick the Democratic nominee? Here’s everything you need to know.

Democratic Primary Nominating Delegate Allocation Table - Updated 2/11/15 @ 9:25 am cst

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Limited Ballots For Texas Early Primary Voting

Texas Election Law requires voters to vote in the county in which they currently reside. During the early voting period, and only during early voting, voters who find they are not registered in the county in which they currently reside when the go to vote, but find they remain registered to vote in a former Texas county of residence, may vote a "limited ballot" in the county in which they currently reside.  It is a violation of Texas Election Law for voters who have moved to a new county to return to their former county to voter, even though they remain registered in their former county of residence.

I have repeated that first paragraph of words many dozens of times during early voting of each election like the primary election starting on Tuesday, February 16th, for most of this century.

One of most common voter problem I and other Texas Election Judges encounter during every election is the failure of Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) offices to register some people to vote when they obtained, updated or renewed their driver's license. Over a third of all new Texas voter registrations original with Texas DPS.

The National Voter Registration Act of 1993 - the "Motor Voter Act" as it's commonly known - was signed into federal law by President Bill Clinton on May 20, 1993, taking effect on January 1, 1995.

The Motor Voter law expanded voting rights by requiring state governments to offer everyone eligible to vote the opportunity to complete a voter registration application when they obtain, update or renew their driver's license, or other form of identification card issued by the DPS. The federal law indicates the voter registration shall be made or updated, but Texas DPS implemented the law in a way that effectively requires voters to affirmatively request the voter registration action.

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Americans Trust Democrats More Than Republicans

A new Pew Research Center survey finds the American people trust Democrats more than Republicans 41 percent 31 percent.

The Pew Research Center’s annual survey of policy and priorities found that Democrats led Republicans on a wide range of character issues. Democrats had a 25 point lead (52%-27%) on being more willing to work with the other party. Democrats held a 20 point (52%-32%) advantage on the question of who is concerned with the needs of people like me. By a margin of 54%-35%, Republicans were found to be the more extreme party in their positions. Respondents also thought the Republican Party was more influenced by lobbyists than the Democratic Party (47%-30%), but the most telling question was who do people trust to govern ethically and honestly.

By a margin of 41%-31% those surveyed believed that Democrats govern in a more ethical and honest way than Republicans. This question goes to the heart of why Democrats continue to win elections. A majority of voters don’t trust the Republican Party. They don’t think Republicans will be honest with them. Some of these feelings are no doubt left over from the dishonest Bush administration, but much of the distrust comes from the way Republicans have chosen to govern.

Republicans have been fundamentally dishonest with the American people. After they took control of the House in 2010, John Boehner said the Republican agenda was all about jobs. He and his caucus then spent years on dozens of attempts to repeal the ACA. Boehner’s Republican House majority hasn’t proposed or passed a single jobs bill. However, they have voted to cut food stamps, energy assistance, aid for veterans, food for senior citizens, unemployment benefits, and almost every other aid program for the poor and middle class that you can think of.

While cutting programs for the poor and middle class, Republicans have aggressively pushed an agenda of tax cuts and benefits for corporations and the wealthy. This survey reveals that the American people are paying attention to what Republicans have been up to. Republicans can’t disguise their plans to cut taxes for the wealthy as a jobs bill, and expect no one to notice what they are really up to.

Republicans have shown repeatedly during the Obama presidency that they don’t care about the problems of average Americans. Democrats have taken up the mantle of fighting for everyone that the Republican agenda is harming, and people appear to be appreciating it.

The Republican Party is in shambles because they are accurately viewed by most Americans as the uncaring party of the rich. Republicans can pay lip service to the middle class and claim they care about poverty, but they aren’t fooling anyone.

The GOP in the 2016 election cycle is increasingly revealing itself as the party of the wealthy few focused on winning elections on message of fear and hate.

Understanding Donald Trump and The GOP