Monday, February 16, 2009

Potential Impact Of Pres. Obama's Economic Stimulus

Christina RomerPres. Obama's economic stimulus bill gained final approval from Congress Friday after a final round of tough debate. White House Chair, Council of Economic Advisers, Christina Romer discusses the bill's potential impact on the economy on the PBS News Hour, "We know that the private sector is the engine of growth, and that's where we expect to see the vast majority of the jobs."

Listen to PBS News Hour's package covering the stimulus bill.


The White House has released a photo essay about the economic stimulus package showing Obama reaching out to Republicans during stimulus negotiations. In this photo taken on Jan. 27, 2009 House Republicans surround the President after his meeting with the G.O.P caucus. Many of them were seeking his autograph. Zero House Republican voted for the bill.

Related Links:

Decade at Bernie’s By PAUL KRUGMAN - Like the duped investors who believed in Bernard Madoff’s scheme, America has thought it was rich in the first decade of the 21st century.
February 16, 2009

Failure to Rise By PAUL KRUGMAN - It's early days yet, but we're falling behind the curve. America just isn't rising to the challenge of the greatest economic crisis in 70 years.
February 13, 2009

The Destructive Center By PAUL KRUGMAN - President Obama’s pursuit of bipartisanship, and the cuts imposed by “centrists,” have led to an inadequate, insufficiently effective stimulus bill.
February 9, 2009

On the Edge By PAUL KRUGMAN - Washington has lost any sense of the reality that we may well be falling into an economic abyss, and that if we do, it will be very hard to get out again.
February 6, 2009

Herbert Hoover Lives By FRANK RICH - HERE'S a bottom line to keep you up at night: The economy is falling faster than Washington can get moving. President Obama says his stimulus plan will save or create four million jobs in two years. In the last four months of 2008 alone, employment fell by 1.9 million. Do the math. The abyss is widening. Of the 30 companies in the Dow Jones industrial index, 22 have announced job cuts since October. Unemployment is up in all 50 states, with layoffs at both high-tech companies (Microsoft) and lo...
February 1, 2009

Health Care Now By PAUL KRUGMAN - Why has the Obama administration been silent about one of the key promises during the campaign the promise of guaranteed health care for all Americans?
January 30, 2009

Right-Washing the New Deal

This op-ed by Karl Frisch originally appeared in the San Jose Mercury News.

It's probably a good thing that cable news generally doesn't draw much of an audience from the 18- to 24-year-old demographic. Otherwise, history professors across the nation could very well be witnessing the undoing of their work to educate students about the dire economic climate the United States faced for much of the 1930s.

Those who have been watching cable news lately have undoubtedly noticed the litany of conservative media figures attempting to rewrite history by denigrating the tremendous successes of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt's New Deal policies in what amounts to an orchestrated effort to derail the economic recovery plans of President Obama.

Fox News Washington managing editor Brit Hume recently called Roosevelt's policies "a jihad against private enterprise," just after claiming that "everybody agrees, I think, on both sides of the spectrum now, that the New Deal failed." That may be accurate if by "both sides of the spectrum" Hume is referring to the right and far-right over at Fox News.

Hume's own jihad against the facts, however, represents only a small portion of the historical misrepresentations passed off as reasoned debate about the New Deal.

Witness the day-break machinations of the crew over at MSNBC's Morning Joe. During a recent broadcast, Joe Scarborough and co-host Mika Brzezinski kicked off a string of attacks against the president's recovery plan, using the New Deal as their dubious weapon du jour. Mika said of Obama's plan, "I think we're going to have the same unemployment in three or four years, just like the New Deal." That just isn't true -- unemployment fell every year from 1933 through 1937.

Her buddy Joe didn't fare much better, cherry-picking data in telling viewers that unemployment was at "20 percent" in 1938, ignoring the downward trend in unemployment that occurred under the New Deal.

Joe isn't alone -- conservative columnists George Will and Mona Charen have played the same numbers game to falsely claim the New Deal failed to reduce unemployment, a contention disputed by historians and economists.

Don't take my word for it -- data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show the unemployment rate in 1933 clocking in at 24.9 percent and falling each year thereafter (to 14.3 percent in 1937) until 1938 when it rose to 19 percent. Why the increase from 1937 to 1938? As Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has noted, it was a reversal of these very same New Deal policies, which had reduced unemployment, that actually led to recession and drove the numbers back up. It's worth noting, by the way, that these numbers do not include those in federal work-relief programs (at the time, BLS counted those employed by the New Deal's emergency work programs as unemployed). So, the unemployment numbers were actually lower than reported in these years.

The strengthening of the social safety net during the 1930s stimulated the economy while also providing assistance to those waiting to feel the economic recovery for themselves. That's perhaps why Fox News' Bill O'Reilly saw fit to lambast portions of the president's plan aimed at assisting those most in need during these difficult times, claiming last week on his television show that increased funding for programs like food stamps has "nothing to do with stimulating the economy." Though his ego will never let him admit it, O'Reilly is dead wrong.

Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Elmendorf and former McCain campaign economic adviser Mark Zandi have both said that extending food stamps does, in fact, stimulate the economy. Zandi stated last year that "extending food stamps [is] the most effective [way] to prime the economy's pump," while Elmendorf noted in congressional testimony just last week that "[t]ransfers to persons (for example, unemployment insurance and nutrition assistance) would also have a significant impact on GDP."

Faced with the prospect that history will again demonstrate that government spending and investment are important tools in confronting an economic crisis, it is now clear that conservatives are engaged in a misinformation campaign to mislead the public.

So, when radio host Rush Limbaugh, whom former President Ronald Reagan reportedly called the "Number one voice for conservatism" and House Republicans named an honorary member of Congress in 1994, recently said of Obama, "I hope he fails," it makes one wonder if he might not be speaking for all of his pals on the right.

If Limbaugh and conservatives truly want the president to "fail," rewriting the history of the New Deal may very well be the first salvo in a long war to defeat Obama's agenda for America.

Karl Frisch is a senior fellow at Media Matters for America, a progressive media watchdog, research, and information center based in Washington, D.C.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Voter Relationship Management

The art of relationship management is not new and can be found in many forms, addressing specific constituency relationships like business to customer, non-profit service organization to donors and political parties and candidates to voters. In the business world customer relationship management (CRM), focuses on business success by maximizing an organization's ability to identify and track customers' needs and behaviors in order to develop stronger relationships with them.

In the sphere of politics and non-profit organizations a Constituent Relationship Management (CRM), similarly focuses on electoral success by maximizing a party’s or candidate’s ability to identify and track voters' views and behaviors in order to develop a relationship with them and motivate them to vote. Just as Customer Relationship Management has been automated through software systems over the last two decades, Constituent Relationship Management has also been automated through software systems.    Constituent Relationship Management is sometimes alternatively identified as Voter Relationship Management (VRM).

Just as Customer Relationship Management systems help businesses better interact and communicate with customers, a VRM system can help a candidate or party better interact and communicate with the electorate. A VRM system can help candidates more effectively craft and communicate their campaign messages to selected voters in targeted geographic areas to solicit support, contributions and ultimately votes.

The most successful political campaigns of the past several election cycles assemble and use many pieces of information about the electorate from many different sources. Increasingly, candidates and political parties are using computerized VRM systems to manage, analyze and efficiently utilize the information consolidated in their VRM database. VRM analytical functions help utilize the data to better communicate with and mobilize supporters and voters. Candidates and campaign strategists can comb through the data to obtain a holistic view of the electorate to identify supporters, solicit campaign contributions and pinpoint geographic areas (neighborhoods) for increased canvassing and GOTV efforts.

Democrats were successful in the 2006 and particularly the 2008 election cycles because they began utilizing information about the electorate, just as Republicans have for the last decade. Over the last two election cycles Democratic candidates gained an edge against their Republican opponents because they use technologically advanced VRM web portals to more effectively connect with the electorate.

Today's VRM web portals are increasingly designed and build by political IT experts to function as a multi-media communication and voter outreach channel with a social network, chat rooms, newsgroups, discussion forums, blogs, voter canvassing and advocacy tools, e-mail campaigns, e-newsletters, and more -- all aimed at actively facilitating calls to political action.

VRM analytics can yield a broad understanding of not just of a voter's voting history, but also the profile of the household in which the voter lives and the ability to predict each household member's likelihood to support or oppose a candidate or ballot measure, contribute financially or volunteer.

VRM analytics have also allowed voter communication campaigns to evolve from generic blasts of snail mail or e-mail into highly targeted, personalized outreach to each individual voter.

Democrats who were actively organizing during the 2008 election cycle will recognize the data management and VRM systems used by the Democratic Party affiliates and the OFA campaign:

VAN –– The Voter Activation Network was built by a private Boston-based company of the same name with partner Blue State Digital, another Boston-area company founded by veterans of the Dean campaign. At the foundation of VAN system is a national database of voters’ voting history and contact information that was originally populated with data from Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential campaign, data from legacy DNC DataMart and Demzilla voter files and other voter history data sources. VAN is primarily a database with a web front-end that provides data sorting, searching and reporting functions to slice and dice the data. VAN, now in its fourth major generation, does not yet provide analytic capabilities. VAN is available to Democratic Party affiliates in all fifty states as the DNC’s VoteBuilder web application.

VoteBuilder –– VoteBuilder is the DNC's branded version of the VAN data access web application for data sorting, searching and reporting slice and dice functions. The DNC makes VAN data available to all 50 state party affiliates, local democratic candidates and national Democratic candidates through the VoteBuilder web application.

PartyBuilder –– PartyBuilder is the DNC's social networking system designed to offer most of the functions found in commercial social networking systems such as MySpace and Facebook.

Catalist –– Catalist, a private data company run by Harold Ickes and Laura Quinn, maintains detailed information on 280 million Americans, nearly every registered voter and eligible voter in the United States. The Catalist database includes information on how people vote, how often they vote and what motivates them to vote. More than 90 groups subscribed to Catalist data in 2008, including the Obama campaign.

Catalist appends a unique identifier to each name as it flows through its master national file -- and this allows the various data silos to be synced and in effect "talk to each other."

Strategic Telemetry –– Ken Strasma's firm used data from a variety of sources to set targets and create the likely voter model used by the Obama campaign. The exact composition of that set of analytics and statistical model is a closely held secret by the company and Obama’s most senior advisors.

MyBarackObama.com –– MyBO was developed as the web portal of the OFA campaign and functioned as the volunteer social networking mobilization and fundraising hub of the campaign. MyBO provided the communication channel and organizing tools seen and used by campaign staff, field organizers and volunteers, In January 2009 MyBO was handed over to the Organizing for American organization as a subsidiary of the DNC.

The Obama campaign integrated Facebook “friends” data, supporter and volunteer data captured in MyBarackObama.com, Strategic Telemetry data, Catalist data and VAN/VoteBuilder data for analysis. All data sources were being updated in near real-time, particularly the VAN data, which was constantly updated by Obama’s own campaign volunteers plus Democratic Party affiliates in all 50 states down to the county level precincts. (MyBO’s 13 million email ids are held separately.)

The Obama campaign and Strategic Telemetry processed all this collected data through Strategic Telemetry’s analytics and statistical model software system to track the electorate’s key issues and create targeted persuasive messages for the campaign and the candidate to communicate back to the electorate.

Obama Makes VAN's Database 10 Times Larger
Credit: Technology Review / Thursday, December 18, 2008.

One side effect of Barack Obama's Webcentric presidential campaign is that it helped turn the Democratic National Committee's voter database--information on the political leanings and interests of millions of U.S. citizens--into a far more potent political weapon. In the final two months before Election Day, 223 million new pieces of data on voters accrued to the database, and the DNC now holds 10 times as much data on U.S. voters as at the end of the 2004 campaign, according to Voter Activation Network (VAN), a company based in Somerville, MA, that builds front-end software for the database.

Such information could prove vital for future elections in that it shows where to allocate resources most effectively--particularly when it comes to voters who are wavering between parties--and what kinds of messages will appeal to specific voters. While some of 223 million pieces of data added in the final stretch of the campaign are not particularly useful (it includes canvassers' or callers' notations that a voter "refused to talk" or "wasn't home"), overall, it's a gold mine, says Mark Sullivan, co-founder of VAN.

"The data collection in 2008 was a quantum leap from where we were in 2004," Sullivan says. "It also means that we start the 2010 cycle with vastly more knowledge about who voters are, and how we can best communicate with them, rather than feeling like we have to start all over again." This information could perhaps even help Obama govern if the DNC decides to ask average Americans to contact members of Congress about specific policy efforts related to, say, energy, health care, or the Iraq War.

The VAN database--Sullivan would not describe its exact size, but there are about 170 million registered voters in the United States--can be used by all Democratic candidates in national or state elections. In the case of primary campaigns, new data collected by a Democratic combatant is kept by the candidate and added to the national database after a winner emerges.

While most campaigns add something to the database, the biggest contributor this year was, of course, the Obama campaign. For example, tens of thousands of times, volunteers logged in to Obama's social-networking site, my.barackobama.com (MyBO), and downloaded small batches of voter names and phone numbers, dialed them up, and followed various scripts. The aim was to learn their political and issue leanings, encourage people to vote for Obama and to ask supporters to make sure they go to the polls. These responses were recorded by the volunteers using a Web interface, adding to the database instantly.

In the final four days of the campaign alone, four million such calls were made through MyBO, says Jascha Franklin-Hodge, cofounder and CTO of Blue State Digital, which built MyBO as well as the interface to the VAN voter list. "This was just using our tools in that short window of time--never mind what the actual field organization was doing on the ground," he says. MyBO was hardly the only source: the DNC, local campaign offices, traditional phone banks, and canvassers also added data in various ways.

Beyond the data gathered on voters, the Democrats and Obama also have access to a network of willing volunteers who can be used to recontact voters. "They've got a whole volunteer structure that gathered all this information that can be put to used in the 2010 midterms, and can hopefully be available for a reelection [of Obama]," Franklin-Hodge says. "There is a tremendous amount of data mining and analysis that goes on within the party and political organization that allows a better understanding of how people vote and how they make decisions."

This approach--"micro targeting" voters based on their feelings toward specific issues--was once the domain of the Republican National Committee. But even leading Republican figures now acknowledge that the days of GOP voter-data dominance have ended. "For decades, the RNC has had a significant advantage in their voter file, and in their ability to identify and turn out voters," says Mike Connell, founder of New Media Communications, an Ohio-based Republican new-media firm. "With the Obama campaign and the efforts over the last couple of years, [the Democrats] have made significant strides and have caught up."

A key reason for the DNC's data advance was a decision by DNC chairman Howard Dean to improve data sharing among Democratic organizations at the state level. "Four years ago, Howard Dean 'got it,'" Connell says. "Not a lot of people give him credit, but he made a transformation."

Since then, the DNC and VAN have steadily improved the database interfaces. This year, the newest tool in the arsenal was a Google Maps application developed by VAN that makes it far easier to chop up lists of voters in specific precincts for canvassers to personally visit. In the new application, called "turf-cutter," voters' homes are displayed as icons on a map. A few clicks of a mouse allow organizers to draw boundaries around clusters of voters' homes and print out the resulting list for volunteers.

In the past two months, Sullivan says, activists from all Democratic campaigns have used this application 948,000 times, saving thousands of hours of man power, compared to manually figuring out how best to chop up a given district and dispatch volunteers in the most efficient manner. "Probably, on average, for each precinct, they would work with maps and highlighters," says Sullivan. "I hear all the time, 'That was a 45-minute job,' and now they go in here and it takes a minute or two. It was the biggest bottleneck."


In this video Peter Leyden from the Next Agenda project gives a talk to the staff at YouTube on the technology-driven paradigm shift that is transforming politics in the 21st Century. If you have an hour, the video is well worth the watch.











Related Postings:

Friday, February 6, 2009

600,000 Jobs Gone In Jan. - Most In One Month Since 1974

Obama warns lawmakers that 'catastrophe' looms
By David Lightma
McClatchy Newspapers


President Barack Obama warned lawmakers Thursday that the economic crisis could become a "catastrophe" unless they stop bickering and act, while the Senate's Democratic leader predicted that the president's economic-stimulus package will pass. » read more

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job losses accelerated in January as 598,000 were slashed, the most in 34 years, and the unemployment rate soared to a 16-year high [of 7.6 percent.] more

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Democratic-led Senate will try again on Friday to pass a $937 billion stimulus package aimed at boosting the battered economy as some of the worst unemployment data in decades boosted political pressure for a deal. more

Today, the Labor Department reported that the economy lost 598,000 jobs in January, the worst monthly jobs loss since 1974. 1.8 million jobs have been lost in the last three months. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office predicts Obama's infrastructure stimulus spending plan would create up to 3.6 million jobs through year 2010, but even as millions of Americans have already lost their jobs and millions more are likely to lose their jobs in 2009 Republican Senators say, "what's the hurry, slow down" (YouTube)
  • LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): We need to slow down, take a timeout, and get it right.
  • ROGER WICKER (R-MS): Let’s not rush into doing this the wrong way.
  • JOHN ENSIGN (R-NV): It’s still time. There is no hurry.
  • TOM COBURN (R-OK): There’s no reason for us to hurry up, number one.

Both Texas’ senators Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) and John Cornyn (R) have also voiced their staunch opposition to Obama's $819 billion stimulus plan. “I read the bill in vain for any real stimulus in the economy,” Cornyn told the Dallas Morning News. Senator Hutchison told the Plano Chamber of Commerce that she could not support President Barack Obama's proposed $825 billion non-stimulus package at a Jan. 23rd luncheon meeting. Both Texas’ senators are positioned to filibuster Obama's economic stimulus package.

Even as both Texas' Senators oppose Obama's stimulus spending in favor of the usual G.O.P tax cuts, Obama's legislation could help cushion Texas against expected job losses over the next two years. According to an article in the Dallas Morning News, Bernard L. Weinstein, director of the Center for Economic Development and Research at the University of North Texas said, "It appears the 286,000 jobs might just offset the anticipated losses over the next two years."

Also in contrast to Senators Hutchison's and Cornyn's opposition to Obama's infrastructure spending approach to stimulating the economy, the The Texas Department of Transportation is lobbying for the stimulus spending legislation and for Texas' share of the infrastructure spending provided in the bill to repair Texas' roads and aging bridges.

Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman explains stimulus spending vs. tax cuts on MSNBC's Morning Joe. Video here - The meat of the discussion starts just after time mark 4:00. mark