The Incredible Shrinking Republican Base

The survey, conducted by David Hill, (PDF) who operates the Houston-based Republican Hill Research firm, raises questions about whether the Republican Party might be in trouble in Texas after a decade of political dominance. Hill's survey states, in no uncertain terms, that for GOP candidates to succeed in Texas they must look beyond the party's base voters and wrap up 80 percent of independent voters that he calls the Critical Middle. Mr. Hill concludes that the party needs to move away from a hard-line focus on social conservatism and refocus on a “clear and consistent” fiscal conservatism pocketbook issues that were at the forefront of voter concerns in this year’s election – health care, jobs creation, the banking system and the economy in general and energy.

Hill warns in no uncertain terms that for Texas GOP candidates to succeed they must put primary focus on core conservative pocketbook issues to attract 80% of the "Critical Middle" independents to party candidates. Mr. Hill concludes, “This isn’t ‘optional’ - anything less means Republicans lose.”

GOP candidates need "Critical Middle" independents because well before election day 2008, a partisan shift was under way around the U.S. For more than three years starting in 2005, there has been a reduction in the number of voters who register with the Republican Party and a rise among voters who affiliate with Democrats and, almost as often, with no party at all.

In other words the demographic that current defines most of the Republican base is shrinking. Some areas of Texas, such as Collin County, lags this partisan shift trend, but Mr. Hill's research shows that Texas is as susceptible to this partisan shift as was Colorado, which turned into a blue state this election year.

As America, and many areas of Texas, becomes more diverse, the percentage of the population that makes up the Republican base has nosedived. (Source: NES Cumulative File)

Where married white Christians made up nearly 80% of the adult U.S. population in the 1950s, married white Christians now make up less than half of all voters in the United States and less than one fifth of voters under the age of 30. The Census Bureau issued a press release in the summer of 2008 that projects that by 2042, the United States will no longer be a White majority nation.

Meanwhile, the demographics of the GOP have gone in the opposite direction. (Source: NES Cumulative File)

In the 1950s, married white Christians made up just over 40% of the Republican Party -- today they make up about 90% of the party with the majority now more narrowly defining themselves as Social Conservative Christians.

Between the 1970s and the first decade of the 21st century, Republican identification among conservative married white Christians increased by 26 points, going from 64 percent to 90 percent.

During the same time period, Republican identification among moderate married white Christians increased by only five points, going from 38 percent to 43 percent and Republican identification among liberal married white Christians actually declined by 10 points, falling from 23 percent to 13 percent. Implicit in Mr. Hill's research findings is the fact that there are no more untapped Conservative married white Christians to attract into the party. As Mr. Hill suggests, the GOP must increase its support among "Critical Middle" moderate-to-liberal married white Christians who are motivated by concerns other than the standard conservative "family values" hot-button issues.

Republicans need to come to terms with the fact that shifting demographics over the last four years has caused the GOP to lose control of every level of government across the U.S.

• After the 2004 election Republicans had a 232-202 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. After the 2008 election Democrats have a 257-178 lead. In the Senate, Republicans had a 55-45 majority after the 2004 election, which flipped to Democratic advantage of 58-42 (or maybe 59-41) after the 2008 election.
• After the 2004 election, Republicans held 28 governorships compared with 22 for the Democrats. After the 2008 election, Democrats now hold 29 governorships compared with just 21 for the Republicans.
• After the 2004 election, Republicans controlled the state legislature in 20 states compared with 19 Democratic-controlled states. Now, Democrats control the state legislatures of 27 states, with the Republicans controlling only 14 states.
• And there are now over 800 more Democratic state legislators than Republicans in the country, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures Web site. Just four years ago, Democrats had a mere 10-seat edge out of more than 7,000 nationwide.

GOP dominance in the 2008 presidential election diminished to a strip of red states, primarily across the southern bible belt, as shown by this MyDD map, distorted to show electoral votes and thus population.
Hill's suggestion that the GOP should move away from a hard-line focus on social conservatism and refocus on core fiscal conservatism pocketbook issues in Texas will likely be a hard sell. Religious conservatives, which dominates the Texas GOP, become defensive at any suggestion that they or their Social Conservative "family values" agenda has had anything to do with the GOP's erosion. Indeed, religious conservatives are saying the Republican Party must refocus on a social conservatism agenda for the 2010 and 2012 elections. Both camps of conservatives seem to be saying the party is losing because it is not conservative enough, but each point to their own brand of conservatism.

The immediate future will be a bloody brawl for the soul and direction of the GOP. Will the GOP leadership define "return to core conservative beliefs" as a refocus to be a small government party of tax-cutting free-market deregulators at a time of an enormous government deficits, massive bailouts and economic crisis brought on in part by these same policies? Or, will it define "return to core religious conservative beliefs" as a refocus on a social conservatism agenda with Sarah Palin at the head of the party.

White evangelical Protestants are the most conservative Republicans: 79% describe their political views as conservative, compared with 17% who say they are moderate and just 2% who call themselves liberal. Republican white mainline Protestants and white non-Hispanic Catholics also are largely conservative (63% and 66%, respectively), but about three-in-ten in each group say their views are moderate (31% among white mainline Protestants and 30% among white Catholics).

Just consider these numbers from a post 2008 election WSJ/NBC poll: among Republicans only, the most popular person tested in the poll is the dues-paid-in-full member of the Evangelical right Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with a whopping 73%-13% favorable-unfavorable rating. On the other hand conservative columnist Kathleen Parker, who received piles of hate mail during the Presidential campaign for questioning Sarah Palin's credentials, wrote a column for the Washington Post, entitled, "Giving Up on God," makes a sustained argument that the GOP's courting of the religious vote above all has led the party dangerously astray. In that WSJ/NBC poll Palin's polling score among all groups was a net negative approval-disapproval of 35%-45% -- which means she fares poorly among both Democrats and Independents.

Texas Democrats are starting to look toward toward future campaigns and some Democrats have settled on a rallying cry, "Texas is next."

It sounds improbable for the Republican bastion that produced President Bush and served as an early laboratory for Karl Rove's hard-nosed tactics. But Texas is one of several reliably red states that are now in Democrats' sights as party strategists analyze 2008 election results that they believe show the contours of a new progressive movement that could grow and prove long-lasting.

A multi-ethnic bloc of Latinos, blacks, young people and suburban whites helped to broaden the party's reach in 2008. That new formulation of voters was evident in state exit polls and county-level election results (see map) showing that Democrats scored gains from a voting base that is growing progressively less white-married-christian than the population that helped forge Republican advantages in past elections.

Both Republican and Democratic strategists believe the large and growing Latino population in Texas remains untapped, along with a large black electorate, which could make Texas competitive with a major investment of time and money from an Obama-led Democratic Party.

The map at left shows the U.S. Congressional districts carried by Democratic candidates in the 2008 election. This shows that Democrats can win in large sections of the state.

Cuauhtemoc "Temo" Figueroa, Obama's top Latino outreach official, has commented that Texas could be taken seriously as a presidential battleground if Democrats could win statewide races there in 2010. "I don't know if it's four years or eight years off, but down the road, Texas will be a presidential battleground," Figueroa said.

Some Republican strategists like Mr. Hill warn that their party faces demographic challenges with the Latino vote growing and moving toward Democrats. Most Texas Republicans dismiss the warning that the GOP needs to worry about a long-term GOP deficit in the state. After all, Obama carried only 28 of the 254 Texas counties, only narrowly winning critical Harris county, and the McCain/Palin ticket easily carry critical Terrant, Denton and Collin counties.

County By County Presidential Voting Results

Republican Brand Growing Weak In Texas

The Republican Party heads into the New Year with its brand tattered by the election after decisive losses in the 2008 presidential and congressional races. Such a defeat inevitably leads to introspection in party circles about its message going forward.

Actually, the Republican Party's brand image was in decline well before the 2008 election cycle. In December 2005, the Republicans and the Democrats were rated about equally nationally, with just under half of Americans viewing each party favorably. Shortly thereafter, the Republicans' favorable rating fell to 36%, and has since remained in that territory. The Democrats' favorable rating gradually improved during 2006, and has not fallen below 51% since the spring of that year.

The full results of a much-anticipated Republican Party of Texas introspection survey by the Houston-based Republican firm Hill Research were officially released on Monday. This survey of Texas voters yields much the same message as other surveys conducted around the U.S. during November 2008.

According to a November 2008 Gallup poll the Republican Party's image has gone from bad to worse over the past month, as only 34% of Americans say they have a favorable view of the party, down from 40% in mid-October. The 61% unfavorable view of the GOP is the highest unfavorable reading Gallup has recorded for that party since the measure was established in 1992.



The only thing surprising about a 61% unfavorable view of the GOP is, perhaps, that the unfavorable number is not higher considering 87% of Americans are dissatisfied with the direction the Republican philosophy of governance has take the county according to the Gallup's weekly survey question, "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?"

Survey Date	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Unsure
11/13-16/08	11	87	2
11/7-9/08	13	84	3
10/31-11/2/08	13	85	2

Texans are not as dissatisfied with GOP as Americans in general, but they are also unhappy - as Hill Research's statewide poll of 636 active Texas voters voters shows:

Texas voters increasingly unhappy with GOP - The Dallas Morning News
Poll's shocking SOS for Texas GOP - The Dallas Morning News

The survey, conducted by David Hill, raises questions about whether the Republican Party might be in trouble after a decade of political dominance in Texas.

"The poll results challenge the conventional wisdom that Texas is a solidly red state," said Mr. Hill. "This shows that the Republican Party's image, even among Anglos and conservatives and self-professed Republicans, is often not what we would like it to be."

Texas voters don't think the GOP is delivering government that is low-cost, in-touch or devoted to the common good, the poll shows.

Mr. Hill said he found that perceptions of Republicans as arrogant, corrupt, angry and unwelcoming jeopardize the party's dominance. The GOP currently holds every statewide office and controls the Legislature.

Half the voters polled believe the state is on the wrong track; only 37 percent believe Texas is headed in the right direction.

Only 32% of those surveyed Mr. Hill believe that Republican candidates "deserves" to be elected to office. While 45% say they approve of the way Republicans run government in Texas only 15% say they strongly approve. This compares to 35% who say they strongly disapprove of Republican performance and another 15% who somewhat disapprove for a total disapproval rating of 50%.



In Gallup's November poll more than half of Americans, 55%, currently hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party and only 39% an unfavorable view, highly typical of views toward the Democrats through all of 2008. In Mr. Hill's survey 54% of Texans say give Democrats a chance, a number that seems to match up with Gallup's reading that 55% of Americans currently hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party.



In a head-to-head match up today between a generic Democratic candidate for governor and a generic Republican, the Democrat starts out with a 13 percent advantage. In a state representative race, the Democratic advantage is 14 percent.



The next slide from the survey data details what voters don’t like, generically, about Republicans. Voters think the Republicans are arrogant, racist, corrupt and angry. While they think Democrats are smart, innovative, reformers, fair, thoughtful and, perhaps most importantly, the party of the future. As Hill Research notes, long-term, this is simply an untenable position for a political party that hopes to maintain its dominate position.



Neither party can win majority power in State or Federal elections without attracting substantial support from political independents. Hill Research slices the voting population into five distinct segments that includes the independent "Critical Middle" block of voters. It is the Critical Middle - those “not in either camp solidly - that Republicans must hold to win elections in Texas. This group is heavily male, under age 50, self-described moderate and/or independent and focused on fiscal rather than social "morality" issues.



Hill warns in no uncertain terms that for GOP campaigns to succeed they must wrap up 80 percent of the Critical Middle. “This isn’t ‘optional’ - anything less means Republicans lose.”

The Texas Republican Party, controlled in large part by religious conservatives, is going to have to make some serious changes to accommodate the Critical Middle voters. This group is not much swayed by the GOP's mainstay “traditional morality values” augments. At the state level, few voters care much about abortion, school prayer and other staunch social conservatism hot-button issues. What they do rate as important are cutting property taxes, child health care, job security, the economy and paying for their children's education.

The Democratic Party is enjoying an extended stretch of popularity with Americans that started in 2006, and is likely to continue as long as its new party leader, President-elect Barack Obama, continues to inspire high confidence ratings -- and eventually job approval ratings -- from the American people.

Since the Democratic Party is already closely identified as supporting health care, job security and education issues, a popular President Obama could help convince the Critical Middle to vote for Democratic candidates in 2010 and 2012.

The initial impulse of rank and file Republicans is to tack to the right -- returning to core "conservative" principles, as many Republican thought leaders are currently advocating. Given only about a third of independents want the party to be more conservative, it is unclear how much that approach might help to expand the Republican base.

Since most rank-and-file (largely religious conservatives) Republicans (59%) want to see the party move in a more conservative direction the party will likely field 2010 candidates that tend to be more rather than less conservative. The Hill Research Survey report concludes with some recommendations that indicates that isn't the way to attract "Critical Middle" voters.

Election 2010 Already Getting Interesting

Former Texas Comptroller John Sharp announced this week announced that he is in the running for the U.S. Senate seat that Kay Bailey Hutchison is expected to vacate as early as June 2009 to pursue her run for governor.

Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams announced this week that he also intends to join the Republican primary race to replace U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Williams' announcement was largely eclipsed by former Texas Comptroller John Sharp’s announcement. Williams, a car dealer, was widely considered to be a likely candidate for Texas Governor race in 2010.

Since 2006, speculation has mounted that Hutchison would abandon her safe senate seat to take on Governor Rick Perry in the 2010 GOP Primary for Governor. Hutchison toyed with the idea of making a similar run in 2002 and 2006 and ultimately made neither race. This time, however, she seems to be making the race for real, having formally formed an exploratory committee and populated it with a million dollars from her very substantial "senate" campaign war chest and taking an "exploratory" campaign tour of south Texas last August.

Speculation has focused on potential runs by U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, Tony Garza and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst for the Republican nomination to replace Gov. Rick Perry. Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza has ruled out the possibility of running for Texas governor in 2010. Gov. Rick Perry said in April 2008 that he will run for re-election in 2010, possibly setting up a bruising primary battle with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.

Next question is who will step forward as the Democratic candidate for the governor's office and the U.S. Senate seat that Kay Bailey Hutchison leaves open. Did everyone save their Rick Noriega yard signs?

Kay Bailey Hutchison Eyes Tx Governor's Office

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison filed papers on December 4th to establish an exploratory committee to run for the Texas governor's office in the 2010 election.

The filing clears the way for Ms. Hutchison to open a campaign office and begin raising money to challenge Gov. Rick Perry for the Republican nomination. Hutchison had $8.6 million in her federal campaign account as of Sept. 30, and virtually all of it could be used for her campaign to over the governor’s office from Perry.

Mr. Perry has said he intends to seek re-election to the office he’s held since 2000, when he succeeded George W. Bush. Ms. Hutchison has increasingly indicated in recent months that she would challenge him.

“While Texas is faring somewhat better economically than many other states, a positive future is not guaranteed. It will take leaders who look ahead to meet the economic and budgetary challenges that are coming,” she said in a prepared statement.

“Texans deserve a governor who, in the context of sound budgetary policies and low taxes, works for quality schools and universities, access to health care for our families, communities safe from crime and drugs, protection of private property rights, safe transportation and a government that listens and responds to them," she said.

“There is too much bitterness, too much anger, too little trust, too little consensus and too much infighting. And the tone comes from the top. Texans are looking for leadership and results.”