Sunday, November 1, 2020

Collin Co. TX Bellwether - EV Update

Collin County, Texas, is one of the fast growing suburban counties in Texas and the U.S. Its relatively young population has a high portion of college educated professional men and women, and it has a growing population of Asian-American voters.

Since the 2016 election, the county net voter registration count has increased from 540K to more than 654K, a net registration increase of 114K registrations. The median age of all registered voters is 47 years with slightly more females (321.4K) than males (290.8K) registered to vote.

Of the nearly 654K currently registered voters, 234.9K have a registration date after the registration cutoff date for the 2016 presidential election. The median age for these new voters is 36 years. During the 18 days of early voting 152K of these 234.9K new voters cast a ballot, accounting for one-third (33.9%) of the 449K total early ballots cast in the county.

Collin County, Texas, has been one of the state’s suburban Republican stronghold counties that has been increasingly trending more left-leaning over the last few elections. In 2018 Democrats flipped two long held Texas congressional districts. Texas Democrat Colin Allred, a former NFL player making his first run for elected office, stunned incumbent Republican Pete Sessions to win his long held 32nd Congressional District, which is split between Dallas and Collin counties.

Collin County’s own Texas’ 3rd Congressional District includes about four-fifths of the county’s registered voters and occupies the same territory as state house districts 66 and 67 in the southwestern quadrant of the county. In the exceptionally high turnout 2018 midterm election Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic challenger to the state’s incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, earned 47.9 percent of the vote across the entire 3rd Congressional District and won the vote in state House Districts 66 and 67 by 5.7 points and 5.5 points respectively.

The 2018 Democratic candidate for HD66, Sharon Hirsch, who is the Democratic candidate again in 2020, lost to the incumbent Republican by just 391 votes. The 2018 Democratic candidate for HD67 lost to the incumbent Republican by just 2.2 points.

Collin County, heretofore a suburban Republican stronghold, has all the ear marks of being a key 2020 bellwether battleground for the nation and Texas. This year, Democrats have focused national attention and money on the 3rd and 32nd Congressional Districts and state House Districts 66 and 67, to hold the 32nd, and to flip CD3 and HD’s 66 and 67.

More people have already cast an early ballot across all those districts than voted in the entire 2016 election, with Election Day voting yet to go.

District

Total Election Ballots Cast 2016

Voter Reg Count 2020

Day 18 EV Ballots Cast 2020

Day 18 % Turnout Reg Voters 

State HD 33 +

48,201

92,712

63,617

68.6%

State HD 66

73,921

118,983

83,228

69.9%

State HD 67

76,648

131,215

91,550

69.8%

State HD 70

87,991

173,428

119,119

68.7%

State HD 89

79,722

137,608

95,317

69.3%

Total 

366,483

653,946

452,831

69.2%

US TX-03

326,121

575,784

399,749

69.4%

US TX-04 +

19,793

39,812

26,968

67.7%

US TX-32 +

20,532

38,350

26,114

68.1%

+ For the Collin Co. territory only

The residents of Collin County, especially those who reside in the four key battleground districts, appear to have strong interest in the 2020 election. Voter turnout across Collin County promises to reach blowout proportions after almost 70 percent of the registered voters cast an early in-person or mail ballot. Election Day voting could see an additional 10 percent of the county’s registered voters cast their ballots.

A larger percentage of youngest group of voters, the 18-29 year olds, voted early this year as compared to 18-29 year olds in 2016 for the entire election. Through early voting, 51 percent of this youngest group of voters cast a ballot compared with 42 percent for the entire 2016 election. All the other age groups are more or less even with their 2016 full election turnout proportions. 

And remember, the 2020 performance percentages are on a significantly higher base of registered voters than were registered for the 2016 election.Those who were age 25-29 four years ago are in the age 30-39 age group this year, and those who were ages 14-17 four years ago are now registered to vote. The chart below shows the early voting turnout of registered voters for each age group, as well as those voting for the first time in any election. 

Below is a scrolling table of early turnout for each precinct in Collin County

-Pct- Registered --Ballots-- %Voted ---Zip--- --CD-- --HD-- COMM
-Pct- Registered --Ballots-- %Voted ---Zip--- --CD-- --HD-- COMM
1 2,704 1,787 66.09% 75069 3 70 3
2 4,414 2,554 57.86% 75069 3 70 3
3 2,647 1,235 46.66% 75069 3 70 3
4 2,292 1,754 76.53% 75071 3 70 3
5 1,048 712 67.94% 75013 3 67 3
6 1,541 1,051 68.20% 75002 3 89 3
7 1,578 1,054 66.79% 75002 3 89 2
8 3,001 1,663 55.41% 75407 3 89 3
9 3,105 2,034 65.51% 75407 3 70 3
10 746 493 66.09% 75407 3 70 3
11 4,058 2,561 63.11% 75442 4 33 3
12 2,178 1,511 69.38% 75072 3 70 1
13 6,368 4,817 75.64% 75009 4 70 1
14 3,131 2,245 71.70% 75024 3 66 1
15 1,668 1,075 64.45% 75075 3 66 4
16 3,800 2,750 72.37% 75454 3 70 3
17 3,717 2,350 63.22% 75409 4 33 3
18 878 569 64.81% 75495 4 33 3
19 1,650 1,241 75.21% 75075 3 66 4
20 839 533 63.53% 75071 4 70 3
21 4,311 3,079 71.42% 75075 3 67 4
22 4,015 2,793 69.56% 75009 4 70 1
23 2,987 1,657 55.47% 75074 3 67 2
24 2,508 1,433 57.14% 75287 3 66 4
25 5,369 3,987 74.26% 75094 3 89 2
26 1,947 1,252 64.30% 75075 3 67 4
27 2,704 1,768 65.38% 75098 32 89 2
28 2,574 1,834 71.25% 75093 3 66 4
29 2,477 1,929 77.88% 75078 4 33 1
30 4,669 3,149 67.44% 75033 3 33 1
31 2,130 1,637 76.85% 75023 3 66 1
32 2,556 1,882 73.63% 75023 3 67 4
33 4,171 2,836 67.99% 75166 4 89 2
34 4,376 3,269 74.70% 75025 3 66 1
35 1,596 1,026 64.29% 75173 4 89 2
36 1,996 1,556 77.96% 75287 3 66 4
37 2,309 1,370 59.33% 75424 4 33 3
38 5,401 3,942 72.99% 75070 3 70 3
39 3,097 1,994 64.38% 75023 3 67 4
40 3,626 2,566 70.77% 75002 3 67 3
41 4,698 3,568 75.95% 75098 3 89 2
42 1,770 1,094 61.81% 75189 4 33 2
43 3,441 2,116 61.49% 75071 3 70 3
44 1,664 877 52.70% 75069 3 70 3
45 3,066 2,181 71.14% 75069 3 89 3
46 3,063 1,720 56.15% 75074 3 67 2
47 2,647 1,745 65.92% 75074 3 89 2
48 3,707 2,699 72.81% 75080 3 67 2
49 2,374 1,743 73.42% 75075 3 67 4
50 3,283 1,832 55.80% 75074 3 67 2
51 1,747 920 52.66% 75074 3 67 2
52 4,155 2,675 64.38% 75094 3 89 2
53 2,269 1,717 75.67% 75075 3 67 4
54 3,386 2,082 61.49% 75023 3 67 4
55 3,629 2,188 60.29% 75080 3 67 2
56 3,140 2,127 67.74% 75098 32 89 2
57 4,858 3,188 65.62% 75071 3 70 3
58 3,767 2,481 65.86% 75025 3 67 4
59 4,053 2,671 65.90% 75002 3 89 2
60 2,678 2,107 78.68% 75002 3 89 2
61 1,722 1,215 70.56% 75074 3 89 2
62 2,585 1,737 67.20% 75023 3 67 4
63 2,032 1,582 77.85% 75023 3 67 4
64 2,715 1,889 69.58% 75023 3 67 4
65 1,247 867 69.53% 75075 3 67 4
66 2,220 1,471 66.26% 75023 3 67 4
67 2,741 1,895 69.14% 75075 3 66 4
68 2,063 1,243 60.25% 75074 3 89 2
69 3,841 2,851 74.23% 75023 3 67 1
70 1,950 1,415 72.56% 75075 3 67 4
71 1,827 1,348 73.78% 75075 3 66 4
72 1,601 1,126 70.33% 75075 3 67 4
73 1,993 1,289 64.68% 75252 3 66 4
74 1,945 1,382 71.05% 75252 3 66 4
75 2,114 1,593 75.35% 75093 3 66 4
76 3,338 2,418 72.44% 75023 3 66 1
77 3,737 2,502 66.95% 75025 3 67 4
78 4,218 3,011 71.38% 75082 3 67 2
79 2,732 1,680 61.49% 75252 3 66 4
80 3,710 2,490 67.12% 75002 3 89 2
81 2,901 1,996 68.80% 75093 3 66 4
82 2,853 1,728 60.57% 75002 3 89 2
83 3,885 2,637 67.88% 75098 32 89 2
84 2,440 1,678 68.77% 75287 3 66 4
85 3,201 2,187 68.32% 75023 3 67 4
86 2,901 2,121 73.11% 75093 3 66 1
87 5,559 4,331 77.91% 75035 3 33 1
88 2,291 1,186 51.77% 75287 3 66 4
89 3,287 2,393 72.80% 75024 3 66 1
90 3,284 2,449 74.57% 75093 3 66 4
91 2,335 1,683 72.08% 75025 3 67 4
92 3,786 2,297 60.67% 75034 3 33 1
93 266 181 68.05% 75424 4 33 3
94 4,080 3,017 73.95% 75082 3 67 2
95 3,095 2,179 70.40% 75002 3 89 2
96 1,837 708 38.54% 75069 3 70 3
97 1,338 1,020 76.23% 75072 3 70 3
98 1,325 899 67.85% 75069 3 70 3
99 288 165 57.29% 75071 3 70 3
100 30 13 43.33% 75069 3 70 3
101 3,873 2,694 69.56% 75035 3 33 1
102 2,590 1,933 74.63% 75072 3 70 1
103 1,380 760 55.07% 75074 3 89 2
104 2,736 1,428 52.19% 75287 3 66 4
105 1,236 829 67.07% 75093 3 66 4
106 1,977 1,315 66.51% 75002 3 89 2
107 3,456 2,497 72.25% 75025 3 67 4
108 3,026 2,126 70.26% 75093 3 66 1
109 4,067 2,916 71.70% 75024 3 66 4
110 2,859 1,957 68.45% 75082 3 67 2
111 5,609 3,790 67.57% 75034 3 33 1
112 3,044 2,331 76.58% 75093 3 66 4
113 3,421 2,031 59.37% 75002 3 89 2
114 1,568 1,042 66.45% 75069 3 89 3
115 2,954 2,162 73.19% 75252 3 66 4
116 4,849 3,605 74.35% 75093 3 66 4
117 4,365 2,909 66.64% 75035 3 33 1
118 4,426 3,082 69.63% 75035 3 33 1
119 5,255 4,001 76.14% 75025 3 66 1
120 3,662 2,660 72.64% 75013 3 67 3
121 2,766 2,066 74.69% 75025 3 67 4
122 5,110 3,781 73.99% 75072 3 70 3
123 2,023 1,441 71.23% 75093 3 66 4
124 3,189 2,189 68.64% 75024 3 66 1
125 5,125 3,545 69.17% 75082 3 67 2
126 4,667 3,232 69.25% 75070 3 70 3
127 3,845 2,524 65.64% 75035 3 33 1
128 4,985 3,813 76.49% 75002 3 89 3
129 4,374 2,882 65.89% 75070 3 70 3
130 3,749 2,775 74.02% 75013 3 67 3
131 3,112 2,104 67.61% 75070 3 70 1
132 2,900 2,080 71.72% 75287 3 66 4
133 2,754 1,657 60.17% 75098 32 89 2
134 5,819 4,084 70.18% 75035 3 33 1
135 4,170 2,821 67.65% 75025 3 66 1
136 1,975 1,424 72.10% 75252 3 66 4
137 1,983 1,435 72.37% 75093 3 66 4
138 1,254 977 77.91% 75075 3 67 4
139 4,416 2,896 65.58% 75025 3 66 4
140 4,761 3,379 70.97% 75071 3 70 3
141 3,234 2,406 74.40% 75074 3 89 2
142 2,981 2,200 73.80% 75252 3 66 4
143 2,119 1,569 74.04% 75093 3 66 4
144 2,809 2,025 72.09% 75094 3 89 2
145 1,668 1,186 71.10% 75002 3 89 2
146 4,867 3,291 67.62% 75035 3 33 1
147 2,084 1,376 66.03% 75002 3 67 3
149 4,343 3,100 71.38% 75071 3 70 1
150 1,661 1,255 75.56% 75071 3 70 3
151 1,739 1,187 68.26% 75002 3 89 2
152 176 105 59.66% 75074 3 67 2
153 4,877 3,525 72.28% 75048 32 89 2
154 1,214 883 72.73% 75009 4 33 1
155 2,822 2,037 72.18% 75071 3 70 1
156 3,669 2,424 66.07% 75070 3 70 3
157 3,899 2,927 75.07% 75013 3 67 3
158 2,766 1,989 71.91% 75074 3 89 2
159 3,252 2,040 62.73% 75098 32 89 2
160 376 264 70.21% 75009 4 33 3
161 296 183 61.82% 75009 4 70 3
162 272 203 74.63% 75409 4 70 3
163 5,079 3,637 71.61% 75071 3 70 1
164 1,645 1,413 85.90% 75252 3 67 4
165 921 703 76.33% 75002 3 89 2
166 3,986 2,867 71.93% 75094 3 89 2
167 4,879 3,504 71.82% 75024 3 66 1
168 1,911 1,416 74.10% 75002 3 89 3
169 3,172 2,251 70.96% 75070 3 70 3
170 1,814 1,255 69.18% 75048 32 89 2
171 5,733 4,044 70.54% 75013 3 67 3
172 4,134 2,618 63.33% 75409 3 70 3
173 634 464 73.19% 75072 3 70 3
174 4,288 2,868 66.88% 75098 32 89 2
175 1,820 1,343 73.79% 75002 3 89 2
176 4,173 2,299 55.09% 75024 3 66 4
177 5,533 3,351 60.56% 75034 3 33 1
178 2,684 1,882 70.12% 75078 3 70 1
179 4,636 3,725 80.35% 75069 3 89 3
180 636 365 57.39% 75409 4 70 3
181 2,084 1,346 64.59% 75409 4 33 3
183 104 58 55.77% 75409 3 33 3
185 47 29 61.70% 75424 3 33 3
186 135 68 50.37% 75424 3 33 3
187 546 359 65.75% 75424 3 70 3
188 68 39 57.35% 75409 3 70 3
189 821 528 64.31% 75442 3 70 3
190 88 51 57.95% 75442 4 70 3
191 527 283 53.70% 75407 3 89 3
192 2,382 1,614 67.76% 75173 4 33 2
193 1,081 683 63.18% 75173 3 89 2
194 35 24 68.57% 75166 3 89 2
195 885 634 71.64% 75098 3 89 2
196 1,906 1,301 68.26% 75098 32 89 2
197 1,266 906 71.56% 75025 3 66 4
198 116 91 78.45% 75407 3 89 3
199 2,342 1,841 78.61% 75078 3 33 1
203 3,140 2,294 73.06% 75072 3 70 1
204 350 280 80.00% 75072 3 70 1
205 28 21 75.00% 75071 3 70 1
206 1,705 1,232 72.26% 75072 3 70 3
207 4,016 2,800 69.72% 75071 3 70 1
208 2,256 1,790 79.34% 75071 3 70 1
209 890 658 73.93% 75071 3 33 1
210 1,611 1,238 76.85% 75094 3 89 2
211 3,262 2,292 70.26% 75070 3 70 3
212 4,355 3,429 78.74% 75035 3 33 1
213 3,439 2,444 71.07% 75072 3 70 1
214 4,042 3,103 76.77% 75078 3 70 1
215 2,184 1,211 55.45% 75407 3 70 3
216 6,417 4,538 70.72% 75454 3 70 3
217 2,461 1,763 71.64% 75098 32 89 2
218 3,812 2,898 76.02% 75013 3 67 3
219 3,316 2,518 75.93% 75013 3 67 3
220 4,094 2,925 71.45% 75035 3 33 1
221 4,839 3,452 71.34% 75071 3 70 1
222 3,201 2,443 76.32% 75013 3 67 3
223 1,919 1,487 77.49% 75013 3 67 3
224 2,487 1,916 77.04% 75078 3 70 1
225 3,697 2,576 69.68% 75035 3 33 1
226 4,429 2,964 66.92% 75072 3 70 1
227 4,186 3,023 72.22% 75002 3 89 3
228 4,269 2,734 64.04% 75407 3 70 3
229 1,201 838 69.78% 75033 3 33 1
230 4,325 2,800 64.74% 75070 3 70 3
231 2,895 2,015 69.60% 75071 3 70 3
232 3,297 2,417 73.31% 75098 32 89 2
233 1,786 1,242 69.54% 75098 32 89 2
234 1,965 1,532 77.96% 75035 3 33 1
235 1,915 1,348 70.39% 75024 3 66 1
236 2,774 2,086 75.20% 75072 3 70 1
237 2,186 1,514 69.26% 75098 32 89 2
238 3,637 2,333 64.15% 75070 3 70 3
239 4,105 2,918 71.08% 75078 3 70 1



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