Monday, October 26, 2020

Texas Data Suggests Slim Biden Win

Just for fun, I mixed together the current Texas early voting turnout numbers through EV day 13, the trends within this turnout, and the trends within the state’s 12 most populous urban/suburban left-leaning counties and other 242 rural right-leaning counties over the past few elections to project election results for an overall turnout of 70% of registered voters. Interestingly, the result of this calculation lines up with the most recent polling data for the Biden / Trump race. The calculation has Biden winning Texas by 0.4%, or 42,799 votes. Biden’s win threshold is at an overall turnout rate of 63.9%. 

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