Texas currently has 16.95 million people, or about 78% of the state’s voting-age population, registered to vote for a net gain of 1.85 million voters over the 15.1 million Texans registered for the 2016 general election. However, there are more than 3 million Texans currently registered who were not registered in 2016. Most of those new registrations are in the 12 most populous and rapidly growing urban/suburban counties that are increasingly left-leaning. (See table below)
Most people don't realize the rolls of registered voters are more dynamic than just the top line net gain number suggests. Between elections registered voters move from one election juristiction to another and older voters die, constantly adding to and subtracting from registrations across the state’s 254 counties. Young people pass their 18th birthday and register and non-voting citizens are finally motivated to register, which steadily add registrations to the rolls of voters. So, Texas has really gained 3 million — 1.85 million net additionally, plus 1.25 new (replacement) — mostly younger voters for the 2020 general elections. The Texas electorate has fundamentally shifted over the past few years to become one of the youngest and most diverse electorates in the country.
The lion’s share of the net gain in registrations go to the 12 most populous fast growing counties where increasing portions of voters are left-leaning in their political views. Of the 1.85 million additional voters, 1.3 million reside in one of the 12 urban/suburban counties, as shown in the table below. Just over one-half million of the new voters reside in one of the remaining 242 rural counties. (Additional registration data is at the bottom of this post.)
| 12 Largest Counties |
2016 Registered Voters |
2020 Registered Voters |
Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | 2,234,678 | 2,480,522 | 245,844 |
| Dallas | 1,287,171 | 1,398,469 | 111,298 |
| Tarrant | 1,077,618 | 1,212,524 | 134,906 |
| Bexar | 1,045,360 | 1,189,373 | 144,013 |
| Travis | 725,041 | 854,577 | 129,536 |
| Collin | 540,084 | 648,670 | 108,586 |
| Denton | 464,829 | 565,089 | 100,260 |
| El Paso | 428,320 | 488,470 | 60,150 |
| Fort Bend | 404,038 | 482,368 | 78,330 |
| Hidalgo | 338,563 | 391,309 | 52,746 |
| Williamson | 299,960 | 376,672 | 76,712 |
| Montgomery | 311,882 | 370,060 | 58,178 |
| Total | 9,157,544 | 10,458,103 | 1,300,559 |
All the polling now suggests Texas’ voters — new and old — have already decided for whom they will mark their ballots and they are anxious to get on with it and get it done. The massive first day of early in-person turnout produced long lines at polling places across the state’s 12 most populous urban, suburban and exurban counties, as well as some of the state’s more populous rural counties.
Trump accelerated sunbelt states flipping blue by two election cycles. Texas and Arizona are in play this year — a pace faster than political analysts expected. “Census data show that from April 2010 through July 2019, the latest period for which figures are available, Maricopa (Phoenix) added more people than any other US county, with Harris (Houston) ranking second, Clark (Las Vegas) fourth, and five other Texas counties — Tarrant (Fort Worth), Bexar (San Antonio), Dallas, Collin (just north of Dallas) and Travis (Austin) — all finishing in the top 10,” the data shows.
As CNN’s Ron Brownstein notes, the collapse of the GOP across these counties should be a red flag for the GOP because they contain some of the fastest-growing communities in the country, quickly being take over by left-leaning voters.
Texas EV Day 18 Turnout Report - Final
By Oct. 22, early voting across the nation and in Texas broke the record for all votes cast before Election Day in 2016. Motivated voters are acting to ensure their ballots are counted amid a pandemic, but their enthusiasm also may signal a national turnout that could surpass the 2016 record mark of 139 million votes.
Voters across the U.S. as of Tuesday morning, election day, have cast 99,657,079 ballots, including 35,720,830 in-person and 63,936,249 returned mail ballots. The total vote for 2016, both early and Election Day, was 136,669,237, so we are at 71% of the 2016 total vote and way, way beyond the roughly 50 million who voted early in 2016.
Thirty-five states and D.C. have already crossed seen more than 50% of their registered voters casting a ballot, including 13 of the 16 most competitive states. What we don't know is how many of these voters are "new" voters, and how many early voters this year normally wait to vote on Election Day. In many states, lines were long, even for early voting, and they are certain to be much longer tomorrow when 40 or 50 million people try to vote on the same day.
In the states that report a partisan breakdown of early votes, Democrats had an initial lead, but in many states, Republicans are catching up. The Democratic-Republican-Independent breakdown so far in Arizona is 38-36-25, in Florida is 39-38-21, in Iowa is 46-33-20, in Nevada is 40-36-25, and in North Carolina is 37-32-30. It is a safe bet that nearly all registered Democrats voted for Joe Biden and most registered Republicans voted for Donald Trump. We don't know how the independents broke, and with so many of them, even a 60-40 breakdown would be very important. And, of course, turnout tomorrow is critical.
Texas, which has been last or nearly last among the states in turnout every election cycle this century, this year leads the nation in early turnout. So far during the early voting period, Texas and Hawaii have surpassed the total number of ballots cast in those states for the entire 2016 presidential election.
A total of 9.72 million early in-person and mail ballots have been cast through Friday, the last day of EV, which accounts for 108.4 percent of the 8.97M total votes cast for a presidential candidate through Election Day 2016. An even 57 percent of the 16.96M Texans currently registered to vote in this election have cast an early ballot, so far which just misses the 2016 total election turnout mark of 59.4 percent. During the extra six days, over the normal 12 days of EV, an additional 2,467,881 early ballots were cast since the polls close last Saturday night, the 12th day of EV.
In 2016, the previous record year for early ballots cast, 43.5% of then registered voters cast ballots during the entire early voting period. Total election turnout in 2016 was 59.4 percent of the then registered voters.
Out of the 9.72 million early voters, more than 4 million have no previous Republican or Democratic primary history, so it’s not possible to know if those 4 million in the aggregate lean left or right. But since those voters are members of the younger age groups, chances are, they lean left.
All of Texas’ 12 most populous and fastest growing left-leaning urban/suburban counties topped their 2016 early voting raw in-person and mail ballots cast totals. An additional 2 million ballots were cast across the 12 counties during the extra six day of EV. Two of the 12 counties that are COVID-19 hot hot spots — El Paso, and Hidalgo — just missed reaching their 50 percent turnout mark.
|
12 Counties |
2016 Ballots Cast for Election |
2016 % Reg Voters |
2020 EV Ballots Cast Day 18 |
2020 % of Reg Voters |
2016 to 2020 Delta |
|
Harris |
1,338,898 |
61.3% |
1,436,526 |
57.9% |
97,628 |
|
Dallas |
770,590 |
59.4% |
799,437 |
57.2% |
28,847 |
|
Tarrant |
682,740 |
62.8% |
729,495 |
60.2% |
46,755 |
|
Bexar |
598,691 |
57.1% |
640,468 |
53.8% |
41,777 |
|
Travis |
477,588 |
65.2% |
548,920 |
64.2% |
71,332 |
|
Collin |
366,483 |
67.9% |
448,793 |
69.2% |
82,310 |
|
Denton |
302,835 |
64.7% |
380,848 |
67.4% |
78,013 |
|
El Paso |
218,890 |
51.2% |
221,723 |
45.4% |
2,833 |
|
Fort Bend |
267,167 |
65.4% |
327,865 |
68.0% |
60,698 |
|
Hidalgo |
176,160 |
52.0% |
188,424 |
48.2% |
12,264 |
|
Williamson |
205,862 |
67.1% |
259,339 |
68.9% |
53,477 |
|
Montgomery |
208,310 |
66.4% |
236,891 |
64.0% |
28,581 |
|
Total |
5,614,214 |
61.3% |
6,218,729 |
59.5% |
604,515 |
Some of the 12 counties, notably Collin and Denton counties not only far surpassed their 2016 raw ballots cast numbers, they also topped their 2016 percentage turnout number on a significantly larger base of registered voters. Well done Collin and Denton counties!
Almost sixty percent (59.5%) of the aggregate registered voters across Texas’ most populous 12 counties cast an in-person or mail ballot. More than 60 percent of the registered voters have cast in-person or mail ballots in Tarrant, Travis, Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Williamson, and Montgomery counties.
Turnout across those 12 counties accounts for 64.4 percent (6.26M) of the 9.67 million Texans who have so far cast an early in-person or mail ballot. The other 242 counties account for 35.3 percent (3.45M) of the Texans who have voted early so far. This is a record low relative share of votes from of rural counties, down from a 38.5 percent relatively share for the 2016 presidential election, and 39.7 percent in 2012 and 40.1 percent in 2008. According to the latest figures reported by the secretary of state, 61.7 percent of registered voters now live in the 12 counties.
While 59.5 percent of the registered voters across the 12 most populous left-leaning counties have voted, only 53 percent of the registered voters across the 242 mostly rural and right-leaning counties have voted. If turnout and vote share spreads between the 12 left-leaning and 242 right-leaning counties holds through election day, it will put Republicans running for statewide office at a distinct disadvantage.
How many voters will we see turnout on Election Day? Some predictions put Texas’ total turnout number as high as 70 percent of the state’s 16.96M registered voters. That would put the total ballots cast count just over 11.7 million. That leaves about 2 million Texans still waiting to cast their ballot on Election Day. That would be a relatively small presidential Election Day turnout by historical standards. For the 2016 elections about 2.42 million ballots were cast on Election Day, including some last minute mail ballots.
I think we’ll certainly see at least 1.5 million Texans turnout to vote on Tuesday, after such a large EV turnout, and I won’t bet against seeing 2 million more Texans turnout to vote this year. Turnout this year will certainly top 60 percent of registered voters.
The last time Texas turnout topped 60 percent turnout was 1992 when 72.9 percent of registered voters cast a ballot for G.H.W Bush, Bill Clinton, Ross Perot, or other minor candidate. For more than 25 years Texas has been almost last or dead last among the states in voter turnout. Overall turnout in Texas over the years has been persistently weak because younger voters have been missing in action when it comes to voting.
This year, however, Texas is one of the leading states in turnout because younger voters have both engage in voting and in helping to turn out the state’s registered voters. More than 1 million voters ages 18 to 29 had voted early as of October 27, compared to just a little more than 100,000 who voted early in 2016. Total youth turnout was 1.2 million in Texas in 2016. The Washington Post has a map for tracking state early totals.
It’s often said, Texas isn’t a red state, it’s a non-voting state. In the 2016 presidential election, Texas placed near the bottom of all the states in voter turnout, ranking 47th with a turnout rate of 59.4 percent. This year, we may find out if there’s any truth to that saying, Texas isn’t a red state, it’s a non-voting state, if overall turnout does approach the 70 percent level. Turnout that high, with over 64 percent of the state’s ballots cast by voters who reside in the state’s 12 left-leaning urban/suburban counties, spells trouble for Texas Republicans, and every Republican with aspirations to occupy the White House in the future.
Put it all together, and you get the perfect storm for Joe Biden and Texas Democrats. A new DMN/UTT poll released Sunday found Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in Texas as Independents and Hispanics, and those who voted 3rd party or didn’t vote in 2016, are breaking toward Biden. Biden leads Trump among likely voters 48-45 percent.
Biden, who was 2 points behind Trump among likely voters in the September DMN/UTT survey, has expanding his support among independents and has a better than 3-to-1 advantage among Hispanic voters.
Trump has been the least popular Republican presidential candidate in two generations in Texas. The Texans have never warmed up to Trump, as his approval rating in the state has lagged well behind the approvals of past presidents. When Trump’s fundamental weakness in the state is combined with the personal likability of Joe Biden and the gains that Democrats have been making for the past few years, it adds up to a perfect storm where Texas is in play for Democrats.
If Biden wins Texas, the drama over who will occupy the White House for the next four years will be over on election night with a Democratic landslide.
In addition to the tightly contested presidential election, Texas’s senate race is a close battle between Republican incumbent John Cornyn and Democratic challenger MJ Hegar, and the state also features dozens of close legislative and congressional races. Democrats are working to flip at least 9 seats in the Texas House, and as many as 12 congressional seats.
Early voting totals as reported by the Texas Secretary of State at 8:02 PM CDT on Oct. 31.
12 most populous counties.
|
Daily Turnout Comparison for Texas’ 12 Most Populous Urban/Suburban Counties |
|||||||||
|
Voting Day |
In-Person Daily |
Cumulative In-Person Voters |
% of Total Vote Cast |
Mail Ballots Returned Daily |
Cumulative Mail Voters |
% of Total Vote Cast |
Cumulative In-Person & Mail Vote |
% of Reg Voted |
% of 2020 State Wide Cumul. Vote |
|
1 2020 |
457,711 |
458,710 |
65.2% |
244,376 |
244,376 |
34.8% |
703,086 |
6.7% |
62.6% |
|
1 2016 |
370,589 |
370,589 |
68.4% |
171,340 |
171,340 |
31.6% |
541,929 |
5.9% |
|
|
2 2020 |
449,677 |
908,387 |
77.7% |
16,893 |
261,269 |
22.3% |
1,169,656 |
11.2% |
62.0% |
|
2 2016 |
378,525 |
749,114 |
80.6% |
8,752 |
180,092 |
19.4% |
929,206 |
10.2% |
|
|
3 2020 |
439,638 |
1,348,025 |
82.0% |
33,760 |
295,029 |
18.0% |
1,643,054 |
15.7% |
62.1% |
|
3 2016 |
365,940 |
1,115,054 |
84.8% |
19,921 |
200,013 |
15.2% |
1,315,067 |
14.4% |
|
|
4 2020 |
456,270 |
1,804,295 |
84.5% |
35,723 |
330,752 |
15.5% |
2,135,047 |
20.4% |
62.2% |
|
4 2016 |
351,401 |
1,466,455 |
87.3% |
13,680 |
213,693 |
12.7% |
1,680,148 |
18.4% |
|
|
5 2020 |
323,164 |
2,127,459 |
85.7% |
23,257 |
354,009 |
14.3% |
2,481,468 |
23.7% |
63.9% |
|
5 2016 |
361,560 |
1,828,015 |
89.0% |
12,641 |
226,334 |
11.0% |
2,054,349 |
22.4% |
|
|
6 2020 |
128,964 |
2,256,423 |
85.8% |
19,200 |
373,209 |
14.2% |
2,629,632 |
25.1% |
64.5% |
|
6 2016 |
307,342 |
2,135,357 |
90.0% |
9,758 |
236,092 |
10.0% |
2,371,449 |
25.9% |
|
|
7 2020 |
371,752 |
2,633,491 |
86.6% |
32,980 |
406,189 |
13.4% |
3,039,680 |
29.1% |
64.1% |
|
7 2016 |
138,783 |
2,274,140 |
90.4% |
5,027 |
241,119 |
9.6% |
2,515,259 |
27.5% |
|
|
8 2020 |
351,075 |
2,989,888 |
87.1% |
38,541 |
444,730 |
12.9% |
3,434,618 |
32.8% |
64.2% |
|
8 2016 |
291,102 |
2,565,242 |
90.9% |
16,649 |
257,768 |
9.1% |
2,823,010 |
30.8% |
|
|
9 2020 |
317,767 |
3,310,557 |
87.6% |
23,976 |
468,706 |
12.4% |
3,779,263 |
36.1% |
64.2% |
|
9 2016 |
305,558 |
2,870,800 |
91.6% |
6,210 |
263,978 |
8.4% |
3,134,778 |
34.2% |
|
|
10 2020 |
281,634 |
3,592,327 |
87.7% |
37,445 |
506,151 |
12.3% |
4,098,478 |
39.2% |
64.1% |
|
10 2016 |
310,068 |
3,180,868 |
92.1% |
6,210 |
274,022 |
7.9% |
3,454,890 |
37.7% |
|
|
11 2020 |
297,800 |
3,890,139 |
88.1% |
19,341 |
525,492 |
11.9% |
4,415,631 |
42.2% |
64.3% |
|
11 2016 |
324,116 |
3,504,984 |
92.5% |
9,680 |
283,702 |
7.5% |
3,788,686 |
41.4% |
|
|
12 2020 |
199,931 |
4,079,879 |
88.3% |
15,556 |
541,048 |
11.7% |
4,620,927 |
44.2% |
64.2% |
|
12 2016 |
458,597 |
3,963,581 |
93.1% |
9,577 |
293,279 |
6.9% |
4,256,860 |
46.5% |
|
|
13 2020 |
113,783 |
4,214,260 |
88.5% |
6,229 |
547,277 |
11.5% |
4,761,537 |
45.5% |
64.3% |
|
14 2020 |
242,758 |
4,457,018 |
88.7% |
19,850 |
567,127 |
11.3% |
5,024,145 |
48.0% |
64.4% |
|
15 2020 |
241,241 |
4,666,338 |
89.0% |
12,443 |
579,570 |
11.0% |
5,245,908 |
50.2% |
64.4% |
|
16 2020 |
250,885 |
4,917,223 |
89.2% |
18,474 |
598,044 |
10.8% |
5,515,267 |
52.7% |
64.5% |
|
17 2020 |
295,158 |
5,212,381 |
89.5% |
14,520 |
612,564 |
10.5% |
5,824,945 |
55.7% |
64.4% |
|
18 2020 |
385,257 |
5,629,422 |
89.9% |
16,873 |
629,437 |
10.1% |
6,258,859 |
59.8% |
64.7% |
|
ED 2020 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ED 2016 |
1,324,040 |
5,371,788 |
95.7% |
9,952 |
320,684 |
5.7% |
5,614,214 |
61.3% |
|
|
|
Texas’ 12 most populous urban/suburban counties — Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, Collin, Denton, El Paso, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, Montgomery, and Williamson — 2016 Reg Voters: 9,154,375; 2020 Reg Voters: 10,403,266 Source — Texas Secretary of State / DemBlogNews.com |
||||||||
|
|
Daily Turnout for Texas’ 254 Counties |
||||||||
|
2020 Voting Day |
In-Person Daily |
Cumulative In-Person Voters |
% of Total Vote Cast |
Mail Ballots Returned Daily |
Cumulative Mail Voters |
% of Total Vote Cast |
Cumulative In-Person & Mail Vote |
% of Reg Voted |
% of 2016 Total Vote |
|
1 |
750,293 |
750,293 |
66.8% |
372,883 |
372,883 |
33.2% |
1,123,176 |
6.6% |
12.5% |
|
2 |
726,220 |
1,476,513 |
78.3% |
36,956 |
409,839 |
21.7% |
1,886,352 |
11.1% |
21.0% |
|
3 |
698,196 |
2,179,324 |
82.3% |
58,682 |
468,521 |
17.7% |
2,647,845 |
15.6% |
29.5% |
|
4 |
722,177 |
2,903,136 |
84.6% |
60,458 |
528,979 |
15.4% |
3,432,115 |
20.2% |
38.3% |
|
5 |
415,161 |
3,322,987 |
85.6% |
29,038 |
558,017 |
14.4% |
3,881,379 |
22.9% |
43.3% |
|
6 |
160,038 |
3,495,007 |
85.7% |
24,228 |
582,245 |
14.3% |
4,077,252 |
24.0% |
45.5% |
|
7 |
593,304 |
4,091,561 |
86.3% |
65,501 |
647,746 |
13.7% |
4,739,307 |
28.0% |
52.8% |
|
8 |
552,102 |
4,652,896 |
86.9% |
51,691 |
699,437 |
13.1% |
5,352,333 |
31.6% |
59.7% |
|
9 |
488,648 |
5,150,261 |
87.5% |
37,790 |
737,227 |
12.5% |
5,887,488 |
34.7% |
65.6% |
|
10 |
436,718 |
5,603,359 |
87.7% |
50,435 |
787,662 |
12.3% |
6,391,021 |
37.7% |
71.3% |
|
11 |
450,533 |
6,040,431 |
88.0% |
29,166 |
816,828 |
11.9% |
6,865,979 |
40.5% |
76.6% |
|
12 |
311,552 |
6,363,462 |
88.4% |
21,075 |
837,903 |
11.6% |
7,201,365 |
42.5% |
80.3% |
|
13 |
157,447 |
6,558,696 |
88.6% |
7,110 |
845,013 |
11.4% |
7,403,709 |
43.7% |
82.5% |
|
14 |
380,626 |
6,921,407 |
88.7% |
33,099 |
878,112 |
11.3% |
7,799,519 |
46.0% |
87.0% |
|
15 |
349,387 |
6,923,619 |
84.9% |
19,382 |
897,494 |
11.0% |
8,151,731 |
48.1% |
90.9% |
|
16 |
375,377 |
7,308,996 |
85.4% |
25,446 |
922,940 |
10.8% |
8,554,649 |
50.5% |
95.4% |
|
17 |
449,122 |
8,094,229 |
89.5% |
24,897 |
947,837 |
10.5% |
9,042,066 |
53.3% |
100.8% |
|
18 |
609,448 |
8,743,493 |
90.4% |
25,222 |
973,059 |
10.1% |
9,676,422 |
57.1% |
107.9% |
|
ED |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ED 2016 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8,969,226 |
59.4% |
|
|
|
Source — Texas Secretary of State / DemBlogNews.com |
||||||||
|
Day 18 |
12 Largest TX Counties EV Turnout Comparison thru Day 18 |
|||||||||||
|
County |
2016 In-Person & Mail Ballots Thru. Day 12 |
% of Reg |
2016 In-Person Ballots Thru. Day 12 |
% of Vote Cast |
2016 Mail Ballots Thru. Day 12 |
% of Vote Cast |
2020 In-Person & Mail Ballots Thru. Day 18 |
% of Reg |
2020 In-Person Ballots Thru. Day 18 |
% of Vote Cast |
2020 Mail Ballots Thru. Day 18 |
% of Vote Cast |
|
Harris |
977.3K |
43.7% |
882.6K |
90.3% |
94.7K |
9.7% |
1.44M |
57.9% |
1.3M |
88.1% |
171.2K |
11.9% |
|
Dallas |
549.6K |
42.7% |
512.2K |
93.2% |
37.5K |
6.8% |
799.4K |
57.2% |
728.6K |
91.1% |
70.9K |
8.9% |
|
Tarrant |
515.2K |
47.8% |
480.9K |
93.3% |
34.3K |
6.7% |
729.5K |
60.2% |
666.6K |
91.4% |
62.9K |
8.6% |
|
Bexar |
471.9K |
45.1% |
436.7K |
92.5% |
35.2K |
7.5% |
680.6K |
57.2% |
594.7K |
87.4% |
85.9K |
12.6% |
|
Travis |
377.7K |
52.1% |
357.6K |
94.7% |
20.1K |
5.3% |
548.9K |
64.2% |
486.5K |
88.6% |
62.4K |
11.4% |
|
Collin |
301.9K |
56.2% |
289.6K |
95.9% |
12.4K |
4.1% |
448.8K |
69.2% |
419.8K |
93.5% |
29.0K |
6.5% |
|
Denton |
240.0K |
51.6% |
228.9K |
95.4% |
11.0K |
4.6% |
380.8K |
67.4% |
353.1K |
92.7% |
27.7K |
7.3% |
|
El Paso |
150.4K |
35.1% |
142.5K |
94.7% |
8.0K |
5.3% |
221.7K |
45.4% |
194.9K |
87.9% |
26.8K |
12.1% |
|
Fort Bend |
213.6K |
52.9% |
201.7K |
94.4% |
11.9K |
5.6% |
327.9K |
68.0% |
299.7K |
91.4% |
28.2K |
8.6% |
|
Hidalgo |
139.8K |
41.3% |
132.4K |
94.7% |
7.4K |
5.3% |
188.4K |
48.2% |
171.8K |
91.2% |
16.6K |
8.8% |
|
Williamson |
162.6K |
54.2% |
153.3K |
94.3% |
9.3K |
5.7% |
259.3K |
68.9% |
234.4K |
90.4% |
24.9K |
9.6% |
|
Montgomery |
156.8K |
50.3% |
145.3K |
92.6% |
11.6K |
7.4% |
236.9K |
64.0% |
213.9K |
90.3% |
23.0K |
9.7% |
|
Total |
4.26M |
46.5% |
3.96M |
93.1% |
293.3K |
6.9% |
6.26M |
59.8% |
5.63M |
89.9% |
629.4K |
10.1% |
|
|
2016 Reg Voters: 9,154,375; 2020 Reg Voters: 10,458,103 Source — Texas Secretary of State / DemBlogNews.com |
|||||||||||
Voter Registrations - Urban/Suburban vs Rural Counties
The table below shows that for the 2020 election, just over 16.8M Texans are registered to vote, with 10.42M (61.6%) of those registrations in the 12 largest urban, suburban and exurban counties, and 6.49M (38.4%) of the registrations in the 242 rural counties. Actually, subtracting the registrations of the 23 rural blue counties from the rural county count leaves the aggregate registration count of the staunchly red rural counties at only 5.39M.
Nearly all eligible voters in Travis County, home to Austin, are registered to vote this year, according to Travis County Tax Assessor-Collector. Of the county’s more than 850,000 eligible voters, a record 97% of them are registered to vote in the Nov. 3 election. That’s a 17.2% increase since the 2016 presidential election, when there were 725,000 registered voters in Travis County.
Other central Texas counties saw the number of registered voters grow by a quarter since 2016, among the highest increases in the state. Williamson County jumped from 300,000 registered voters to more than 375,000,more than a 25% increase. Hays County saw a 24% increase and Comal County also saw a more than 25% bump. Bexar County, home to San Antonio, increased from 1 million to nearly 1.2 million, or a 13.1% increase in registered voters since 2016. Harris County, home to Houston, saw an 11% increase, while Dallas County saw an 8.5% increase.
The rapidly growing population of state's 12 most populous urban, suburban, and exurban counties — Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, El Paso, Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, Montgomery, and Williamson counties — has not only grown increasingly left-leaning over the past 20 years, the voters in those counties represent an increasingly dominant share of the state’s electorate.
For the 2020 general election, voters across the 12 increasingly blue most populous urban/suburban counties (plus the 23 rural blue counties) outnumber the 219 stagnant red rural county voters by a two-to-one margin.The state's 23 rural blue counties include: Webb, Cameron, Hays, Starr, Maverick, Zavala, Nueces, Duval, Willacy, Dimmit, Brooks, Jim Wells, Presidio, Jim Hogg, Val Verde, Zapata, Jefferson, Frio, Kleberg, Brewster, Culberson, Lasalle, and Reeves counties.
County Voter Registrations
|
|
Texas Voter Registrations |
||||||
|
Yr |
TL TX |
Delta |
% Voted |
12 Co |
Delta |
242 Co |
Delta |
|
1976 |
6.64M |
|
64.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
1980 |
7.90M |
359K |
68.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
1984 |
8.20M |
1.26M |
68.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
1988 |
8.44M |
302K |
66.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
1992 |
10.54M |
238K |
72.9% |
4.67M |
|
3.77M |
|
|
1996 |
12.37M |
2.10M |
53.2% |
5.93M |
1.27M |
4.61M |
833K |
|
2000 |
12.37M |
1.82M |
51.8% |
7.15M |
1.21M |
5.22M |
611K |
|
2004 |
13.10M |
733K |
56.6% |
7.58M |
436K |
5.52M |
297K |
|
2008 |
13.58M |
477K |
59.5% |
7.93M |
353K |
5.64M |
124K |
|
2012 |
13.65M |
71K |
58.6% |
8.10M |
162K |
5.55M |
-90K |
|
2016 |
15.10M |
1.45M |
59.4% |
9.16M |
1.1M |
5.95M |
396K |
|
2018 |
15.79M |
692K |
53.0% |
9.66M |
505K |
6.13M |
184K |
|
2020 |
16.96M |
1.85M |
64.0% |
10.46M |
1.30M |
6.50M |
551K |
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