Collin County, Texas, is one of the state’s suburban Republican stronghold counties that has been increasingly trending more left-leaning over the last several elections. In 2018 Democrats flipped two long held Texas congressional districts. Texas Democrat Colin Allred, a former NFL player making his first run for elected office, stunned incumbent Republican Pete Sessions to win his long held 32nd Congressional District, which is split between Dallas and Collin counties.
Collin County’s own Texas’ 3rd Congressional District includes about four-fifths of the county’s registered voters and occupies the same territory as state house districts 66 and 67 in the southwestern quadrant of the county. In the exceptionally high turnout 2018 midterm election Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic challenger to the state’s incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, earned 47.9 percent of the vote across the entire 3rd Congressional District and won the vote in state House Districts 66 and 67 by 5.7 points and 5.5 points respectively.
- Polling has found the political terrain in CD3 has become much more favorable for Democrats in 2020.
The 2018 Democratic candidate for HD66, Sharon Hirsch, who is the Democratic candidate again in 2020, lost to the incumbent Republican by just 391 votes. The 2018 Democratic candidate for HD67 lost to the incumbent Republican by just 2.2 points.
Collin County, heretofore a suburban Republican stronghold, has all the ear marks of being a key 2020 bellwether battleground for the nation and Texas. This year, Democrats have focused national attention and money on the 3rd and 32nd Congressional Districts and state House Districts 66 and 67, to hold the 32nd and flip CD3 and HD’s 66 and 67.
The residents of Collin County, especially those who reside in the four key battleground districts, also appear to a have strong interest in the 2020 election. While the last minute voter registration applications won’t be processed, approved, and counted until at least the end of next week, the registration count currently stands at 645,370 a record increase of 105,286 registered voters from election day 2016. And that number will increase a bit more as all the last minute applications are approved.
Voter turnout across Collin County promises to reach blowout proportions, if my turnout projections are close to accurate - and they usually are for this old long time Collin County Election Judge. It is likely at least 70% of the nearly 645.4K registered voters will cast a ballot, yielding a final tally of about 451.8K ballots cast, compared to 366,483 ballots cast in 2016. About 361.4K (70%) of 2020 ballots cast will come from early in-person voting, compared to 290K in 2016. About 63.2K ballots will be cast on Election Day, with about 27K mail ballots cast for the entire election.
To accommodate the record rush of voters for this election, Collin County’s Elections Administrator, Bruce Sherbert, has increased the number of early voting polling locations from the usual 35 voting centers to 45 voting centers. Bruce has also increased the number of Election Day voting centers from usual the 70 locations to more than 100.
|
Date |
Total Reg Voters |
Delta |
Total Votes Cast |
% Reg Voters |
ED Ballots Cast |
% ED Ballots Cast |
Total Mail Ballots Cast |
% Total Mail Ballots Cast |
EV Ballots Cast |
% EV Cast |
|
Nov-88 |
122.7K |
|
91.2K |
74.3% |
71.0K |
77.8% |
1.8K |
0.0% |
18.4K |
20.2% |
|
Nov-90 |
122.1K |
|
71.6K |
58.6% |
58.3K |
81.5% |
1.4K |
0.0% |
11.9K |
16.6% |
|
Nov-92 |
153.7K |
31.0K |
128.8K |
83.8% |
83.2K |
64.6% |
2.5K |
0.0% |
43.1K |
33.4% |
|
Nov-94 |
175.9K |
|
98.5K |
56.0% |
64.9K |
65.9% |
1.9K |
0.0% |
31.7K |
32.2% |
|
Nov-96 |
231.2K |
77.4K |
132.9K |
57.5% |
80.0K |
60.2% |
2.6K |
0.0% |
50.4K |
37.9% |
|
Nov-98 |
263.6K |
|
84.1K |
31.9% |
58.0K |
69.0% |
1.6K |
0.0% |
24.4K |
29.0% |
|
Nov-00 |
300.4K |
69.3K |
177.7K |
59.1% |
100.4K |
56.5% |
2.0K |
1.1% |
75.2K |
42.3% |
|
Nov-02 |
319.2K |
|
129.8K |
40.7% |
78.8K |
60.7% |
3.5K |
2.7% |
47.5K |
36.6% |
|
Nov-04 |
369.4K |
69.0K |
246.6K |
66.8% |
92.6K |
37.6% |
4.0K |
1.6% |
150.0K |
60.8% |
|
Nov-06 |
381.8K |
|
138.7K |
36.3% |
75.6K |
54.5% |
1.5K |
1.1% |
61.6K |
44.4% |
|
Nov-08 |
426.0K |
56.6K |
298.6K |
70.1% |
78.0K |
26.1% |
9.0K |
3.0% |
211.6K |
70.9% |
|
Nov-10 |
424.7K |
|
157.1K |
37.0% |
66.0K |
42.0% |
3.3K |
2.1% |
87.8K |
55.9% |
|
Nov-12 |
462.1K |
36.1K |
302.8K |
65.5% |
79.4K |
26.2% |
10.9K |
3.6% |
212.5K |
70.2% |
|
Nov-14 |
489.0K |
|
177.8K |
36.4% |
71.6K |
40.3% |
8.6K |
4.9% |
97.8K |
55.0% |
|
Nov-16 |
540.1K |
78.0K |
366.5K |
67.9% |
60.9K |
16.6% |
15.6K |
4.3% |
290.0K |
79.1% |
|
Nov-18 |
581.7K |
|
357.0K |
61.4% |
67.0K |
18.8% |
18.3K |
5.1% |
271.9K |
76.1% |
|
Nov-20 |
645.4K |
105.3K |
451.8K |
70.0% |
63.2K |
14.0% |
27.1K |
6.0% |
361.4K |
80.0% |
Collin Co. Results for Top Federal Candidates:
|
Collin CO |
2008 |
2012 |
2016 |
2018 |
||||
|
Rep |
184.9K |
62.3% |
196.9K |
65.0% |
201.0K |
55.6% |
187.4K |
52.7% |
|
Dem |
109.0K |
36.8% |
101.4K |
33.5% |
140.6K |
38.9% |
165.6K |
46.5% |
|
Other |
2.6K |
0.9% |
4.5K |
1.5% |
19.8K |
5.5% |
2.9K |
0.8% |
|
Total |
296.6K |
69.8% |
302.8K |
66.0% |
361.4K |
66.9% |
356.0K |
61.4% |
|
Voters |
425.1K |
100% |
458.9K |
100% |
540.1K |
100% |
579.9K |
100% |
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