Monday, September 7, 2020

A New National Poll Shows Biden Leads Trump by 10 Points

A new national CBS/YouGov poll puts Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump 52% to 42%, with only 6% undecided or planning to vote for a third-party candidate. That 52% is a scary number for Trump's campaign manager, Bill Stepien. It means that even if everyone else votes for Trump—which is unlikely— Biden still wins the popular vote by 4 points. Having the challenger be above 50% is terrible news for any incumbent.

The poll also shows that any Trump bump due to the convention is already gone. On July 1, Biden had a 9-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average. Now it is even a smidgen higher.

Some other takeaways from the poll are that voters believe:

  • Biden will encourage calm in the cities whereas Trump will encourage fighting
  • The way to end the protests is police reform
  • They'll feel safer with Biden (48% to 43%)
  • If Biden wins, Trump voters will worry about the economy
  • If Trump wins, Biden voters will worry about the virus
  • The election is a referendum on Trump, not a choice between the candidates
  • Democrats are voting against Trump, not for Biden
  • Biden is +9 with white women (Hillary Clinton lost them)

Perhaps most significant is that Trump is slowly losing ground with white noncollege men, a group Trump won by 10 points in 2016. Many of them didn’t vote for Trump in 2016, they voted against Clinton, a woman they perceived as an arrogant and entitled elitist. Biden does not generate that kind of antagonism among white non-college men. Among voters without a college degree Biden now has a 2 point lead over Trump 47-45 percent. Trump’s significant lead among all men four years ago has turned into a 4-point overall deficit, with Biden leading 49-45 percent.

In 2016, Donald Trump won the white suburban vote over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by several points and tied for the suburban vote amoung all demographic groups. This year, Biden leads Trump among self-described suburbanites, 53% to 40% and ties ties with Trump amoung white voters in suburban areas.

Trump dominated with rural voters in 2016 and continues to lead against his Democratic rival in that demographic, but by a much smaller margin than four years ago. In 2016, Trump won voters in self-described rural agricultural areas by 3 to 1 but holds less than a 2 to 1 lead now, 60% to 34%. The president has also experienced a 9-point drop in his margin of support from rural women, compared to 2016.

Among voters in small towns, a demographic Trump won by 6 points in 2016, he’s currently in a statistical tie with Biden, 48% to 45%, within the margin of sampling error for that location. Voters in big cities back Biden at about the same level as they backed Clinton in 2016.

The president has lost ground among several other key demographic groups since his 2016 victory. Trump has lost the advantage he had with seniors in 2016. The single digit margin of support he enjoyed in the last election has been replaced by a 6 point lead for Biden among voters 65 and older.

Polls now give Biden up to a 12-point lead among women (53 percent to 41 percent), an 11-point lead among independent voters (48 percent to 37 percent) and an 11-point lead among voters in the suburbs (52 percent to 41 percent).

The Republican Party and Donald Trump are deeply unpopular, and their numbers are sinking. Meanwhile, Joe Biden isn’t just more popular than Trump, his approval numbers are on an upward trajectory as he continues to rally his party around him. Now can you see why it would be so hard for Trump and Republicans to turn this thing around?


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