Unprecedented Midterm Election Early Turnout - Is It Enough?

Americans cast in-person and absentee ballots during early voting this year at rates unprecedented for midterm elections since early voting was instituted. With the conclusion of early voting, almost 35 million ballots have already cast nationwide, with Election Day still to go.

In 22 states, including Texas, and Washington, D.C., with an early voting period more people voted early than did so in the last midterm election, reports the New York Times. That means more people have cast a ballot over 12 days of early voting in those counties than turned out for the entire 2014 midterm election. And early voter turnout has surpassed that from the 2012 presidential election.

In Texas, both Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) and incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) say the state’s unprecedented early turnout gives their campaigns the advantage. Texas is historical a deeply conservative state because more progressive Texans seldom if ever vote - particularly in midterm elections. Because Democrats rely heavily on the votes of younger people and minorities, who are less consistent in their voting than are older whites, Democratic Party candidates usually benefit from higher turnouts.

As a result, Democrats hope the record early turnout supports their much-hoped-for blue wave. Early voter turnout in this midterm surpassed early turnout for the 2012 presidential election across Texas and in Collin County. In the entire early voting period, 5,808,588 (36.8%) of Texas’ 15,793,257 registered voters cast early ballots, according to TargetSmart. That’s 1.1 million more votes than were cast during the entire 2014 election. The rate of early voting turnout for this midterm rivals presidential year early turnout and far exceeds total midterm year turnout rates since 1994 for Texas and Collin County.

In the entire early voting period, 4,514,930 Texans cast in-person ballots and 369,598 cast mail-in ballots in the 30 Texas counties with the highest voter registration counts, where 78 percent of the state’s registered voters live. Durning early voting, 39.9 percent of the 12.3 million registered voters in those 30 counties cast their ballots. There are 16,628,103 people over age 18 living in these 30 counties.

The early voting numbers are giving a boost of optimism to O’Rourke supporters, who are seeing it as a sign that he may very well come out on top in the closely watched race against Cruz.

“If this continues, we win,” O’Rourke said Friday after a rally. “I feel very good about our prospects, not just on Election Night, but on being able to deliver for the next six years that follow on every priority, from health care to education to immigration to criminal justice reform. Texas is going to be the leader that this country has been waiting for.”

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website predicts as many as 7.14 Texans will vote in the this midterm election, which would be 2.4 million more than voted in 2014. But, if current trends hold, some 3 million more people will vote this year in Texas than did during the last midterm, in 2014.

Large numbers of first-time midterm voters and first-time-ever voters cast early ballots. Just over 900,000 Texans showing up to vote early this year were eligible to vote in the 2016 presidential election, but did not show up that year. Texas voters are turning out at rates that look a lot more like past presidential years than recent midterm years. This could well be good news for Rep. Beto O’Rourke in his quest to defeat incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, and Democrats in general.

Democratic strategists think interest in O’Rourke’s campaign and unusually high voter interest is giving him an outside chance to beat Cruz, and helping down ballot Democrats to boot. Unfortunately, early voting turnout analysis doesn’t tell us how people are voting, only who’s showing up to vote, and it’s risky business to game out what early voting numbers say about what the final result of an election may yield. But that doesn’t mean there aren't clues about how Texans might be marking their ballots.

Here’s what we do know. More voters have already cast their ballots in Texas than they did in the entirety of the 2014 early vote. The early vote population is also significantly younger and a bit more diverse than it was four years ago, when Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) won in a 20-point landslide on the lowest voter turnout since the WWII 1942 elections.

O’Rourke has trailed Cruz in recent public and private polling by anywhere from two to eight points, but he appears to have fundamentally reshaped the electorate from past elections by attracting a substantial portion of younger and independent voters, as well as old-guard moderate Republicans moved to turn their backs on what has become the grand old party of Trump.

But surging turnout in the state as well as persistent anecdotal evidence of O’Rourke’s crossover appeal across Texas suggests polling models that give Cruz the edge to win may have it wrong. There were just 4.7 million total votes cast in the 2014 midterms. In 2016, about 9 million people voted for president. Right now, if election-day voting continues the current surge (and early voting hasn’t cannibalized that many voters who would have voted anyways), strategists think turnout could be on pace to potentially climb as high as 7 to 8 million ballots cast. That could lead to some surprising results.

The early vote does give reason for Democratic optimism in terms of the electorate looking dramatically different in Texas, and early turnout numbers yield evidence the polls are overly conservative in terms of the composition of the electorate. At this point in the early vote in 2014 people 65 or older had cast 47 percent of the ballots. This time around, it’s down to 34 percent. The percentage of the early vote cast by Texans under 40 has climbed from just 13 percent in 2014 to 24 percent this year.

Early voters also appears to be a bit more diverse this year with non-Anglo (Non-Hispanic white) voters turning out at higher rates than in the past, and the increase in their rate of voting has been a bit higher than with Anglo voters. That said, Anglo whites continue to make up a large part of the electorate. In 2014, the early vote electorate at this point was about 75 percent Anglo, 13 percent Hispanic and 6 percent African American. As of now it’s 73 percent Anglo, over 15 percent Hispanic and almost 7 percent African American.

The highest voter turnout rates in the state were in Collin County, where Plano is located, and in Williamson County of which the largest city is Round Rock.

Collin County had a 49.4 percent turnout, topping the county's 2012 presidential year early turnout rate, and Williamson County had a 49 percent turnout. Of the 580K registered voters in Collin County:

• 286,393 (49.2% - median age 52) have voted early with 152,045 (53.1% - median age 52) women and 134,036 (46.8% - median age 53) men voting.
• 130,017 (22% of reg voters - median age 56) have voted in R primaries with 97,803 (75%) of those R’s already voting early, representing 34% of the total early vote.
• 66,664 (11% of reg voters - median age 51) have voted in D primaries with 49,532 (74%) of those D’s already voting early, representing 17% of the total early vote.
• 20,444 (4% of reg voters - median age 61) have voted in both R and D primaries with 17,337 (85%) of those DR’s already voting early, representing 6% of the total early vote.
• 365,473 (62% of reg voters - median age 41) have never voted in either party’s primaries with 121,693 (33% - median age 45) of those already voting early, representing 42% of the total early vote.
• 161,807 (56.5% of the vote - median age 46) of the early voters have voted in their first midterm, with 50,860 (18% - median age 38) voting for the first time in a federal election.
• Of the 102,753 people who registered to vote in Collin Co after the 2016 general election, 42,583 (41%) voted early, making up 15% of the turnout.
• At least 16,724 by-mail applications were recorded by the cutoff date. Of those by-mail ballots sent to voters, 15,312 marked ballots were returned to the election through the last day of early voting. By-mail voters have a median age of  73 years. 6,370 Rs (by R primary vote) voted by mail. 3,415 D’s (by D primary vote) voted by mail. 1,004 who have voted in both R and D primaries, who largely lean left, voted by mail.
• 29,429 of the 65,774 registered Asian-Americans voted early
• 19,446 of the 48,788 registered Latino-Americans voted early

In one public opinion survey after another, young voters prefer O’Rourke over Cruz by a wide margin. A Marist University survey in early August, found O’Rourke trailing by just four percentage points statewide. More than half the registered voters under the age of 45 backed O’Rourke, while older voters supported Cruz. A Quinnipiac survey at about that same time found O’Rourke leading among voters under the age of 50, but Cruz took a commanding lead with older voters. This age gap continued in more recent surveys of likely voters. A more recent Quinnipiac survey found O’Rourke had the support of 66 percent of the likely voters between the ages of 18 and 34.

The key turnout metric to look at is relative turnout rates among the age groups. The chart below shows the ratio of early turnout for 18 to 29 year old voters, compared to the age groups, is well above the group's share of the total vote for the entire 2014 midterm election, and is already within a point of the group's share of the vote in 2016 with election day voting yet to come.

Once the election day vote is added, 18 to 29 year olds will top that age group's 2016 performance, relative to the other age groups. This is good news for O’Rourke and down ballot Democrats, but will the group's final vote tally added to the vote tally of the other under age 50 O’Rourke voters, who seems poised to at least match their groups' 2016 vote shares, be enough to give O’Rourke and down ballot Democrats a win in Texas and Collin County?

It is important to understand and accurately interpret two key data points here: The percentage of registered young people who turnout to vote ballots; and the share of all votes that were cast by young voters in relationship to older voter's. The chart above shows the share of all votes that were cast by each age group. The table and chart below shows the percentage of registered young people who voted.

The median age of all in-person and by-mail early voters is 52 years. If younger voters don't significantly out number older voters on election day, their final share of the vote may not be enough to give O’Rourke and down ballot Democrats a win in Texas and Collin County. Only 42-44% of the county’s early voters lean left, which is likely to carry through Election Day, if younger voters do not turnout at a very high ratio on Election Day.

Age Group	VAP	Reg Voters	% VAP	Voted as of 11/2/18	% Reg	% Voted	1st Mid- Term	% 1st Mid- Term	1st Fed	% 1st Fed
18-29	160,415	109,309	68%	30,081	27.5%	10.5%	27,600	25%	15,904	52.9%
30-39	145,923	95,961	66%	36,873	38.4%	12.9%	28,895	30%	11,453	31.1%
40-49	176,815	123,086	70%	60,164	48.9%	21.0%	37,801	31%	9,001	15.0%
50-59	145,432	113,452	78%	65,654	57.9%	22.9%	33,018	29%	6,418	9.8%
60-69	93,389	76,980	82%	50,855	66.1%	17.8%	21,236	28%	4,540	8.9%
70+	75,785	63,587	84%	42,772	67.3%	14.9%	13,283	21%	3,565	8.3%
All	797,759	582,375	73%	286,399	49.2%	100.0%	161,833	56.5%	50,881	17.8%

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More on young Democrats in Texas

• Early voting surges among younger people in Texas
• Trump's nationalism, rippling through America's suburbs, is roiling the GOP
• Is booming turnout in Texas giving Beto O’Rourke a chance?
• Beto O’Rourke galvanized young Texas Democrats
• Texas Republicans Appear to be Losing the Youth Vote to Democrats
• Here’s Why Texas Voter Turnout Was So Low, and Why It’s Surging Now

Turnout Table  

Date	Total Reg Voters	Total Votes Cast	% Reg Voters	ED Ballots Cast	Mail Ballots Cast	EV Ballots Cast	EV % Cast	EV % Reg Voters
Nov-88	122,718	91,230	74.3%	71,012	1779	18,439	20.2%	15%
Nov-90	122,114	71,573	58.6%	58,301	1396	11,876	16.6%	10%
Nov-92	153,736	128,808	83.8%	83,228	2512	43,068	33.4%	28%
Nov-94	175,916	98,470	56.0%	64,853	1920	31,697	32.2%	18%
Nov-96	231,160	132,925	57.5%	79,973	2592	50,360	37.9%	22%
Nov-98	263,573	84,089	31.9%	58,030	1640	24,419	29.0%	9%
Nov-00	300,426	177,673	59.1%	100,434	1,995	75,244	42.3%	25%
Nov-02	319,236	129,792	40.7%	78,770	3,510	47,512	36.6%	15%
Nov-04	369,412	246,617	66.8%	92,636	3,980	150,001	60.8%	41%
Nov-06	381,825	138,686	36.3%	76,101	1,581	60,784	43.8%	16%
Nov-08	425,994	298,647	70.1%	75,359	11,916	210,895	70.6%	50%
Nov-10	424,548	157,849	37.0%	66,700	3,308	87,839	55.6%	21%
Nov-12	462,102	304,421	65.9%	80,047	10,937	213,437	70.1%	46%
Nov-14	489,032	178,672	36.5%	71,952	8,750	97,960	54.8%	20%
Nov-16	540,084	366,483	67.9%	60,766	15,616	290,008	79.1%	54%

Turnout by precinct

Precinct#

Cong

Sen

HD

Reg

Voted Early

% Voted

Precinct#	Cong	Sen	HD	Reg	Voted Early	% Voted
1	3	8	70	2568	1255	48.9%
2	3	8	70	4193	1657	39.5%
3	3	8	70	2232	617	27.6%
4	3	30	70	1385	728	52.6%
5	3	8	67	1018	531	52.2%
6	3	8	89	5410	2673	49.4%
7	3	8	89	1505	697	46.3%
8	3	30	89	2777	1006	36.2%
9	3	30	70	5207	2227	42.8%
10	3	30	70	667	317	47.5%
11	4	30	33	3544	1335	37.7%
12	3	8	70	2068	1058	51.2%
13	4	30	70	3705	1841	49.7%
14	3	8	66	2693	1189	44.2%
15	3	8	66	1578	733	46.5%
16	3	30	70	2626	1293	49.2%
17	4	30	33	2914	1230	42.2%
18	4	30	33	827	367	44.4%
19	3	8	66	1589	964	60.7%
20	4	30	70	841	367	43.6%
21	3	8	67	4149	2220	53.5%
22	4	30	70	3508	1745	49.7%
23	3	8	67	2408	850	35.3%
24	3	8	66	2421	871	36.0%
25	3	8	89	4985	2834	56.9%
26	3	8	67	1611	754	46.8%
27	32	30	89	2596	1169	45.0%
28	3	8	66	2519	1329	52.8%
29	4	30	33	1420	758	53.4%
30	3	8	33	5133	2427	47.3%
31	3	8	66	2125	1305	61.4%
32	3	8	67	2502	1403	56.1%
33	4	30	89	3668	1705	46.5%
34	3	8	66	4078	2194	53.8%
35	4	30	89	1445	601	41.6%
36	3	8	66	1933	1130	58.5%
37	4	30	33	1989	669	33.6%
38	3	8	70	6757	3147	46.6%
39	3	8	67	2970	1277	43.0%
40	3	8	67	3489	1851	53.1%
41	3	8	89	3336	1723	51.6%
42	4	30	33	1535	500	32.6%
43	3	8	70	5585	2395	42.9%
44	3	8	70	1497	542	36.2%
45	3	8	89	2590	1344	51.9%
46	3	8	67	2987	1172	39.2%
47	3	8	89	2594	1268	48.9%
48	3	8	67	3302	1739	52.7%
49	3	8	67	2312	1330	57.5%
50	3	8	67	3035	1111	36.6%
51	3	8	67	1652	622	37.7%
52	3	8	89	3668	1554	42.4%
53	3	8	67	2180	1306	59.9%
54	3	8	67	3129	1256	40.1%
55	3	8	67	3476	1567	45.1%
56	32	30	89	5543	2696	48.6%
57	3	8	70	4458	1986	44.5%
58	3	8	67	3611	1618	44.8%
59	3	8	89	3912	1891	48.3%
60	3	8	89	2200	1290	58.6%
61	3	8	89	1700	954	56.1%
62	3	8	67	2515	1174	46.7%
63	3	8	67	1981	1233	62.2%
64	3	8	67	2671	1352	50.6%
65	3	8	67	1235	632	51.2%
66	3	8	67	2119	1006	47.5%
67	3	8	66	2489	1324	53.2%
68	3	8	89	1982	897	45.3%
69	3	8	67	3778	2171	57.5%
70	3	8	67	1897	1106	58.3%
71	3	8	66	1773	1026	57.9%
72	3	8	67	1533	820	53.5%
73	3	8	66	1835	805	43.9%
74	3	8	66	1859	949	51.0%
75	3	8	66	1928	1095	56.8%
76	3	8	66	3297	1869	56.7%
77	3	8	67	3576	1644	46.0%
78	3	8	67	2736	1418	51.8%
79	3	8	66	2632	1201	45.6%
80	3	8	89	3499	1723	49.2%
81	3	8	66	2877	1488	51.7%
82	3	8	89	2657	1170	44.0%
83	32	30	89	4914	2295	46.7%
84	3	8	66	2416	1222	50.6%
85	3	8	67	3063	1492	48.7%
86	3	8	66	2812	1537	54.7%
87	3	8	33	5766	2999	52.0%
88	3	8	66	2426	765	31.5%
89	3	8	66	5047	2632	52.1%
90	3	8	66	3209	1804	56.2%
91	3	8	67	2275	1179	51.8%
92	3	8	33	3413	1341	39.3%
93	4	30	33	263	106	40.3%
94	3	8	67	3799	2102	55.3%
95	3	8	89	2975	1556	52.3%
96	3	8	70	1770	472	26.7%
97	3	8	70	1338	798	59.6%
98	3	8	70	1209	592	49.0%
99	3	8	70	295	101	34.2%
100	3	30	70	30	7	23.3%
101	3	8	33	3350	1749	52.2%
102	3	8	70	2566	1454	56.7%
103	3	8	89	1287	507	39.4%
104	3	8	66	2746	841	30.6%
105	3	8	66	1182	600	50.8%
106	3	8	89	1918	944	49.2%
107	3	8	67	3347	1804	53.9%
108	3	8	66	2896	1497	51.7%
109	3	8	66	3528	1913	54.2%
110	3	8	67	2741	1476	53.8%
111	3	8	33	4816	2241	46.5%
112	3	8	66	2874	1676	58.3%
113	3	8	89	3322	1453	43.7%
114	3	30	89	1337	611	45.7%
115	3	8	66	2936	1622	55.2%
116	3	8	66	4586	2524	55.0%
117	3	8	33	4222	1894	44.9%
118	3	8	33	4327	2147	49.6%
119	3	8	66	5140	3002	58.4%
120	3	8	67	3455	1856	53.7%
121	3	8	67	2605	1415	54.3%
122	3	8	70	4751	2575	54.2%
123	3	8	66	2059	1128	54.8%
124	3	8	66	3098	1478	47.7%
125	3	8	67	4763	2453	51.5%
126	3	8	70	4369	2142	49.0%
127	3	8	33	3725	1683	45.2%
128	3	8	89	4642	2618	56.4%
129	3	8	70	4012	1841	45.9%
130	3	8	67	3420	1851	54.1%
131	3	8	70	5688	2869	50.4%
132	3	8	66	2811	1432	50.9%
133	32	30	89	2536	1043	41.1%
134	3	8	33	4820	2377	49.3%
135	3	8	66	4028	1844	45.8%
136	3	8	66	1938	1087	56.1%
137	3	8	66	1924	1040	54.1%
138	3	8	67	1243	792	63.7%
139	3	8	66	4334	1922	44.3%
140	3	8	70	4609	2323	50.4%
141	3	8	89	3008	1717	57.1%
142	3	8	66	2908	1627	55.9%
143	3	8	66	1819	1068	58.7%
144	3	8	89	2570	1380	53.7%
145	3	8	89	1594	769	48.2%
146	3	8	33	4608	2078	45.1%
147	3	8	67	1803	799	44.3%
149	3	8	70	3975	1993	50.1%
150	3	30	70	922	527	57.2%
151	3	8	89	1588	762	48.0%
152	3	8	67	118	33	28.0%
153	32	8	89	4290	2277	53.1%
154	4	30	33	907	480	52.9%
155	3	8	70	2515	1238	49.2%
156	3	8	70	3519	1701	48.3%
157	3	8	67	3501	1877	53.6%
158	3	8	89	2479	1232	49.7%
159	32	8	89	4999	2240	44.8%
160	4	30	33	318	138	43.4%
161	4	30	70	261	111	42.5%
162	4	30	70	258	140	54.3%
163	3	8	70	3523	1747	49.6%
164	3	8	67	1053	756	71.8%
165	3	8	89	889	532	59.8%
166	3	8	89	3628	1923	53.0%
167	3	8	66	4493	2306	51.3%
168	3	8	89	1809	969	53.6%
169	3	8	70	2872	1431	49.8%
170	32	30	89	1733	845	48.8%
171	3	8	67	4799	2412	50.3%
172	3	30	70	3148	1374	43.6%
173	3	8	70	635	347	54.6%
174	32	30	89	3972	1818	45.8%
175	3	8	89	1565	870	55.6%
176	3	8	66	3796	1249	32.9%
177	3	8	33	4598	1819	39.6%
178	3	30	70	2163	1066	49.3%
179	3	8	89	4536	2982	65.7%
180	4	30	70	606	224	37.0%
181	4	30	33	1559	685	43.9%
183	3	30	33	100	42	42.0%
185	3	30	33	45	18	40.0%
186	3	30	33	109	38	34.9%
187	3	30	70	475	187	39.4%
188	3	30	70	59	29	49.2%
189	3	30	70	743	287	38.6%
190	4	30	70	83	30	36.1%
191	3	30	89	440	148	33.6%
192	4	30	33	1728	618	35.8%
193	3	30	89	871	365	41.9%
194	3	30	89	23	14	60.9%
195	3	30	89	832	473	56.9%
196	32	8	89	1723	852	49.4%
197	3	8	66	1239	592	47.8%
198	3	30	89	117	63	53.8%
199	3	30	33	1378	710	51.5%
203	3	8	70	3019	1671	55.3%
204	3	8	70	304	205	67.4%
205	3	8	70	34	11	32.4%
206	3	8	70	1553	735	47.3%
207	3	30	70	3648	1742	47.8%
208	3	30	70	1216	734	60.4%
209	3	8	33	688	355	51.6%
210	3	8	89	1428	836	58.5%
211	3	8	70	5981	2730	45.6%
212	3	8	33	3002	1625	54.1%
213	3	8	70	3068	1454	47.4%
214	3	30	70	3327	1822	54.8%
215	3	30	70	2060	777	37.7%
216	3	30	70	4580	2189	47.8%
217	32	30	89	1811	888	49.0%
218	3	8	67	3172	1652	52.1%
219	3	8	67	2340	1347	57.6%
220	3	8	33	2884	1425	49.4%
221	3	8	70	4529	2242	49.5%
222	3	8	67	2744	1534	55.9%
223	3	8	67	1722	977	56.7%
224	3	30	70	5585	2783	49.8%
225	3	8	33	3365	1662	49.4%
226	3	8	70	4206	1983	47.1%