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Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Texas Replaces So. Carolina As Post New Hampshire Make or Break Primary


Updated Tuesday, October 13, 2016 @ 8:22 AM.

As usual, media political pundits are applying what they remember from past primary schedules to the 2016 primary schedule. So they are focused on the South Carolina primary being the big swing decision factor for 2016. But 2016 is different and Texas, not South Carolina, is the big prize primary, after Iowa and New Hampshire.

In 2008, Iowa Democrats caucused on January 3rd. The 2008 New Hampshire primary followed on Jan. 8, with South Carolina Democrats voting on Jan. 26th and Florida Democrats voting on Jan. 29th. That made SC and FL the key post NH swing decision stories in 2008, leading into the 23 state and territory primaries and caucuses held on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5th.

Another 13 states held their primaries and caucuses during February 2008. Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island held their primary on Tuesday, March 4, 2008.

The 2016 primary season kicks off a month later than in 2008.  Iowa precinct caucuses will allocate 46 pledged delegates on Monday, Feb. 1, 2016 and the New Hampshire primary will allocate 24 pledged delegates on Tuesday, Feb. 9th.

Texas primary early voting starts on Tuesday, February 16, 2016 and runs through Friday, February 26, 2016. The 2016 South Carolina Democratic Primary date is currently set for Saturday, Feb 27th, the day after Texas early voting concludes. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina will allocate 121 pledged presidential delegates.

Texas is the big post Iowa and New Hampshire prize on Super Tuesday with Texas Democrats selecting 237 delegates, including super delegates, for largest single delegate count of any state up to and including the other super Tuesday states.

Texas early voting voters will cast 60 to 70 percent of their total primary ballots by the time SC Democrats vote in their primary on Saturday, February 27th.

Election Day voters across all the Super Tuesday states will apportion 849 total pledged delegates on March 1st. More than 30 percent of the delegates it takes to win the nomination will be selected by the Super Tuesday states.

Super Tuesday states and delegate counts include: Alabama (60); American Samoa (10); Arkansas (37); Colorado (79); Democrats Abroad (17); Georgia (116); Massachusetts (116); Minnesota (93); Oklahoma (42); Tennessee (76); Texas (252); Vermont (26); and Virginia (110).

Nevada holds precinct caucuses on Feb 20th., half way through the Texas early voting period, which starts on Feb. 16th. No matter who gets the winning headline after Feb. 20's caucuses, the state’s delegate allocation process moves ahead to county-level meetings in April and a state convention in May where votes are taken before finally awarding its national convention delegates.
Update January 6, 2016 — Politico — Hillary Clinton has been on the ground in Nevada since last April. Bernie Sanders only began building up his organization here late in the fall. But the state that’s been touted as Clinton’s firewall against the Vermont senator in the event he generates any momentum out of Iowa and New Hampshire is suddenly looking like it’s in play, potentially opening another unexpected early state front. That story may add momentum to SC and TX news coverage.
By the close of Super Tuesday voting on March 1st, 1,034 pledged delegates from Iowa through all the Super Tuesday states will be allocated to presidential candidates by the voters. There are an additional 186 super delegates available in those first states, many already pledging themselves to Hillary Clinton.

Date State (Elected Del + Super Del = Total) Delegates Cumulative
Monday 1 Feb 2016 Iowa (44+8=52) 52 52
Tuesday 9 Feb 2016 New Hampshire (24+8=32) 32 84
Tuesday 16 Feb 2016 Texas Early Voting starts (222+30=252) 252 -
Saturday 20 Feb 2016 Nevada (35+8=43) 43 127
Saturday 27 Feb 2016 South Carolina (53+6=59) 59 186
Super Tuesday
1 March 2016		 Texas (222+30=252)
Plus 12 other states or territories (656+126=782)
Total (252+782=1,034)		 1,034 1,220

The 186 Super Delegates from those states may be swayed by the preference voters show to one or more of the candidates. The 1,220 delegates at stake in those first states is more the half of 2,242 delegates needed to win the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

The line up of post Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses come fast and furious in March with 17 more states and 2 territories committing 1,304 more delegates by the last Saturday of March. Including 212 additional super delegates from those states and territories, the post Super Tuesday contests in March add 1,516 delegates to the 1,181 committed and super delegate count already racked up through Super Tuesday.

By the end of March, about half the number delegates needed to win nomination will have been committed. Uncommitted Super Delegates who "vote their conscience" could lock up the nomination for any candidate who dominates Super Tuesday results, and then goes on to dominate the other fast and furious contests in March. Locking up the nomination by the end March is clearly Clinton's campaign strategy.

Sanders, Clinton, and O'Malley must pull respectable delegate counts out of the Super Tuesday states, especially delegate rich Texas, to have any hope of surviving the contests of fast and furious March.

O'Malley has so far not pulled together either the individual state campaign organization or fundraising ability to compete with Clinton and Sanders in the early primaries and caucuses.

Sanders has demonstrated the fundraising capacity to have enough money to fund get out the vote campaigns across early primary states.

But Sanders' campaign must now build and staff get out the vote campaign organizations in 15 states holding primaries and caucuses from February 1st through Super Tuesday, March 1st, to keep pace with Clinton in committed delegate counts.

Further, more than just keeping pace with Clinton, Sanders needs to win majority delegate counts in a few of the those first 15 states, or the one delegate rich state of Texas, and really needs to do both, to be regarded as a viable choice, leading into the next 17 fast and furious states of March.

Party Affiliation and Primary / Caucus Voting

So, when political pundits actually look at the 2016 primary calendar and delegate counts up through Super Tuesday, Texas will displace SC as the big primary prize story.

Any registered voter can participate in any party's "open" primary. In a "closed" primary, only voters registered for the party which is holding the primary may vote in that party's primary. In, "other" semi-closed primary states, voters must be affiliated with a political party in order to participate in the primary; however, they may choose to affiliate with the party of their choice the when they vote or caucus. In many states with semi-closed primaries, unaffiliated voters will not be permitted to participate unless they choose to give up their independent status and declare party affiliation.

State Democratic Primary / Caucus Schedule and Delegate Counts:
(Republican Primary / Caucus dates differ from Democratic dates in some states)
State  Date Primary 
Caucus		 Early 
Voting		 District
Delegate
Votes		 At- Large
Delegate 
Votes		 PLEO
Delegate 
Votes		 Total
Pledged
Delegate 
Votes		 Unpledged
(Super)
Delegate 
Votes		 Total
with
Super
Delegates
Votes
Iowa 2/1/2016 Caucus 30 10 6 46 8 54
New Hampshire 2/9/2016 Primary 16 5 3 24 8 32
Nevada 2/20/2016 Caucus Y 20 7 4 31 8 39
South Carolina 2/27/2016 Primary 33 11 7 51 6 57
Alabama 3/1/2016 Primary 34 11 7 52 6 58
American Samoa 3/1/2016 Caucus 6 6 4 10
Arkansas 3/1/2016 Primary Y 21 7 4 32 5 37
Colorado 3/1/2016 Caucus 42 14 8 64 13 77
Georgia 3/1/2016 Primary Y 64 21 13 98 14 112
Massachusetts 3/1/2016 Primary 62 21 12 95 26 121
Minnesota 3/1/2016 Caucus 51 17 10 78 16 94
Oklahoma 3/1/2016 Primary 25 8 5 38 4 42
Tennessee 3/1/2016 Primary Y 44 15 9 68 9 77
Texas 3/1/2016 Primary Y 136 45 27 208 29 237
Vermont 3/1/2016 Primary 10 3 2 15 8 23
Virginia 3/1/2016 Primary 62 21 12 95 17 112
Kansas 3/5/2016 Caucus 31 10 6 47 6 53
Louisiana 3/5/2016 Primary Y 35 12 7 54 7 61
Nebraska 3/5/2016 Caucus Y 17 6 3 26 5 31
Maine 3/6/2016 Caucus 17 5 3 25 5 30
Michigan 3/8/2016 Primary 87 29 17 133 19 152
Mississippi 3/8/2016 Primary 23 8 5 36 5 41
North Carolina 3/8/2016 Primary Y 70 23 14 107 13 120
Northern Marianas 3/12/2016 Caucus 6 6 5 11
Puerto Rico 3/13/2016 Primary 33 11 7 51 7 58
Florida 3/15/2016 Primary Y 135 45 27 207 31 238
Illinois 3/15/2016 Primary Y 104 35 21 160 30 190
Missouri 3/15/2016 Primary 49 16 10 75 13 88
Ohio 3/15/2016 Primary 97 32 19 148 17 165
Arizona 3/22/2016 Primary Y 41 14 8 63 12 75
Idaho 3/22/2016 Caucus 13 4 3 20 4 24
Utah 3/22/2016 Caucus Y 16 5 3 24 4 28
Alaska 3/26/2016 Caucus Y 9 3 2 14 4 18
Hawaii 3/26/2016 Caucus Y 14 5 3 22 9 31
Washington 3/26/2016 Caucus 56 19 11 86 16 102
Wisconsin 4/5/2016 Primary 52 17 10 79 10 89
Wyoming 4/9/2016 Caucus 8 3 2 13 4 17
Connecticut 4/26/2016 Primary 33 11 7 51 14 65
Delaware 4/26/2016 Primary 11 4 2 17 10 27
Maryland 4/26/2016 Primary Y 51 17 10 78 27 105
New York 4/26/2016 Primary 152 51 30 233 44 277
Pennsylvania 4/26/2016 Primary 104 35 21 160 21 181
Rhode Island 4/26/2016 Primary 14 5 3 22 9 31
Indiana 5/3/2016 Primary 46 15 9 70 9 79
Guam 5/7/2016 Caucus 6 6 5 11
West Virginia 5/10/2016 Primary Y 17 6 3 26 9 35
Kentucky 5/17/2016 Primary Y 22 7 4 33 4 37
Oregon 5/17/2016 Primary 34 11 7 52 12 64
Virgin Islands 6/5/2016 Caucus 6 6 5 11
California 6/7/2016 Primary Y 264 88 53 405 71 476
Montana 6/7/2016 Primary 10 3 2 15 7 22
New Jersey 6/7/2016 Primary 72 24 14 110 16 126
New Mexico 6/7/2016 Primary Y 19 6 4 29 9 38
North Dakota 6/7/2016 Caucus Y 9 3 2 14 5 19
South Dakota 6/7/2016 Primary 10 3 2 15 5 20
DC 6/14/2016 Primary Y 11 4 2 17 20 37
Total 2436 835 485 3756 709 4465

Conventions delegates are "won" by candidates as follows:
  • District Delegates are proportionally allocated according to the vote in each Congressional (or other) District.
  • At-Large Delegates are proportionally allocated according to the statewide vote.  
  • Pledged PLEO Delegates are proportionally allocated according to the statewide vote.
  • Unpledged Delegates vote their conscience.
About 1 in 6 of the national convention delegate votes come from "unpledged" or "Superdelegates". These delegates serve because of the office they hold or office(s) they have held. The presidential preference of these delegates is not a factor in their selection as delegates. Unpledged delegates are:
  • Approximately 442 elected members of the Democratic National Committee (DNC).
  • Democratic Governors of  states and territories. 
  • Democratic Senators and House members from the 50 states plus DC and territories.
  • Party Leaders (current and former U.S. Presidents and Vice-Presidents who were elected as Democrats, former Democratic Leaders of the U.S. Senate and U.S. House [including former Democratic Speakers of the House and former Democratic Leaders in both houses of Congress], and former National and General Chairs of the Democratic National Committee. 
Republican Primary / Caucus On Dates Different From Democratic Dates:

Alaska 3/1/2016 Republican Caucus
American Samoa 3/8/2016 Republican Caucus
Guam 3/12/2016 Republican Caucus
Hawaii 3/8/2016 Republican Caucus
Idaho 3/8/2016 Republican Primary
Maine 3/5/2016 Republican Caucus
Nebraska 5/10/2016 Republican Primary
Nevada 2/23/2016 Republican Caucus
North Dakota 3/1/2016 Republican Caucus
South Carolina 2/20/2016 Republican Primary
Virgin Islands 3/12/2016 Republican Caucus
Washington 3/8/2016 Republican Caucus
Wyoming 3/1/2016 Republican Caucus



x Here are some dates to remember for 2016:
  • Jan. 14 -- Fox Business GOP debate in North Charleston, South Carolina
  • Jan. 17 -- NBC Democratic debate in Charleston, South Carolina
  • Jan. 28 -- Fox News GOP debate in Des Moines, Iowa
  • Feb. 1 -- Iowa caucuses
  • Feb. 6 -- ABC News/Independent Journal GOP debate at St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire
  • Feb. 9 -- New Hampshire primary
  • Feb. 11 -- PBS Democratic debate in Wisconsin
  • Feb. 13 -- CBS GOP debate at the Peace Center in Greenville, South Carolina
  • Feb. 20 -- Nevada Democratic caucus and South Carolina Republican primary
  • Feb. 23 -- Nevada GOP caucus
  • Feb. 27 -- South Carolina Democratic primary
  • March 1 -- Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia primaries; Alaska (GOP), Colorado and Minnesota caucuses
  • March 5 -- Kentucky (GOP), Nebraska (Dem.) and Kansas caucuses; Louisiana primary
  • March 8 -- Idaho (GOP), Mississippi andMichigan primaries;Hawaii Republican caucus
  • March 13 -- Puerto Rico GOP primary.
  • March 15 -- Ohio, Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina primaries
  • March 22 -- Arizona andUtah primaries; Idaho Democratic caucus
  • March 26 -- Alaska, Hawaii and Washington hold Democratic caucuses
  • April 5 -- Wisconsin primary
  • April 19 -- New York primary
  • April 26 -- Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island primaries
  • May 3 -- Indiana primary
  • May 10 -- Nebraska (GOP) and West Virginia primaries
  • May 17 -- Kentucky (Dem.) and Oregon primaries
  • May 24 -- Washington Republican primary
  • June 5 -- Puerto Rico Democratic primary
  • June 7 -- California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries
  • June 14 -- Washington, D.C. primary
  • July 18-21 -- Republican National Convention in Cleveland
  • July 25-28 -- Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia
  • Sept. 26 -- Presidential debate at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio
  • Oct. 4 -- Vice presidential debate at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia
  • Oct. 9 -- Presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis
  • Oct. 19 -- Presidential debate at University of Nevada-Las Vegas
  • Nov. 8 -- Election Day
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