Thursday, May 7, 2015

Early Voting Turnout Numbers For Collin County

Early voting for the May 9 election across Collin County closed Tuesday with fewer people voting this year than in the last local election year. Only 15,336 (3.24%) of the county's almost 473,000 registered voters cast early ballots this year.

As expected, the last day of early voting had the heaviest turn out with 3,824 of voters across all of Collin County's local districts casting in-person ballots on Tuesday.  Daily early county wide vote counts: M-1,309; T-1,139; W-1,335; TH-1,672; F-1,751; S-1,739; M-2,570; and T-3,824.  (see table at bottom for city by city breakout numbers.)

The average age of early voters across Collin County is 57 yrs, but in some districts the average voter age tops 60 years.  Sixty percent of early Collin Co voters have a strong Republican Party primary affiliation history, eighteen percent have a Democratic Party primary affiliation history, and the remaining voters, average age 47 yrs, have no party affiliation history.

Plano ISD, which includes 189,267 registered voters across northern portions of the cities of Dallas and Richardson and parts of the cities of Allen, Carrollton, Garland, Lucas, Murphy, Parker and Wylie, is the largest single local election district in Collin Co. and accounted for almost 44 percent of the total early ballots cast in the county, with 6,685 (3.5%) of PISD registered voters casting early ballots.  The Frisco, McKinney, Allen, and other independent school districts across Collin County are smaller bases of population and registered voters.

Selected ISD Early Turnout Numbers
Registered in
District within

Collin Co
Percent
Countywide
Register 

Voters
Number 
People
Voted
Percent
District
Voted
Percent
Countywide
Vote
Plano ISD  189,267 40.02% 6,718 3.55% 43.81%
Frisco ISD   71,295 15.07% 1,935 2.71% 12.62%
McKinney ISD   66,570 14.08% 2,808 4.22% 18.31%
Allen ISD 51,424 10.87% 1,281 2.49% 8.35%

The lion's share of ballots cast in Collin County for any election are usually cast during early voting, depending on general level of voter interest in the candidates and issues. The early Collin County turnout split ranges from 55% of the total vote for local and mid-term elections to 68% for presidential elections.

As of Friday morning, The Weather Channel forecasts a 50% chance of rain on Saturday with a possibility of severe thunderstorms later in the day. A rainy election day almost always depresses turnout. A 50/50 early voting / election day turnout split would a yield total election turnout rate of 6.5 percent, however, a 5 to 6 percent overall turnout rate is more likely.

Early voting turnout across Dallas was also tepid.  Dallas early turnout indicates election numbers will be well below average, according to Dallas County Elections Administrator Toni Pippins-Poole. Just over 30,000 people turned out during nine days of early voting and that number will likely only rise by a few thousand more on Election Day. That estimate pales in comparison to recent years, when city election turnout was around 48,000 to 50,000, says Pippins-Poole.  Dallas turnout for May elections is typically around 10 to 11 percent.  “We’re not going to get close to 10 percent turnout in this election,” says Pippins-Poole, “We might get closer to 6 percent.”

Selected City by City Early Turnout Numbers
Population
Est
Voting Age
Population
Est
Registered in
District 

as of 3/15/15
Percent of
Countywide
Register
Voters
Number of
People
Voted
Percent of
District
Voted
Percent of
Countywide
Vote
Collin County 961,120 701,618 472,945 100.00% 15,336 3.24% 3.24%
Plano City  268,771 196,203 147,564 31.20% 6,032 4.09% 39.33%
McKinney City  148,559 108,448 81,457 17.22% 2,997 3.68% 19.54%
Allen City  92,020 67,175 51,939 10.98% 1,205 2.32% 7.86%
Frisco City  84,710 61,838 44,962 9.51% 1,499 3.33% 9.77%
Wylie City   43,031 31,413 21,905 4.63% 366 0.08% 2.39%
Prosper City   12,396 9,049 8,082 1.71% 719 8.90% 4.69%
Celina City   6,744 4,923 3,817 0.81% 273 7.15% 1.78%
Farmersville City   3,395 2,478 1,589 0.34% 161 10.13% 1.05%


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