Sunday, August 5, 2012

Sadler Could Win U.S. Senate In November On Turnout

When it comes to the reality of winning election to the U.S. Senate in the one of the nation's most consistently far right red states, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Paul Sadler argues it isn't impossible. Sadler believes a high turnout of his supporters, Democrats, Independents and old guard Republicans, for the November general election could give him the win over Tea Party nominee Ted Cruz .

Tea party-backed attorney Ted Cruz trounced old guard Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst to win the primary runoff Tuesday and seize the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate.

Cruz received support from national Tea Party super PACs such as Club for Growth and FreedomWorks, national conservative radio hosts including Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity and Tea Party celebrities Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum.

According to a Public Policy Polling (PPP) report,Cruz's victory was driven by 4 things:

The Tea Party, the enthusiasm of his supporters, a generational divide within the Texas Republican ranks, and the lack of regard the party base currently holds for Rick Perry.

Cruz led Dewhurst by a whooping 75-22 margin with Tea Party voters, more than making up for a 56-39 deficit Dewhurst had with voters who don't consider themselves members of that movement. There has been too much of a tendency to ascribe any Republican primary upset over the last few years to Tea Party voters, but this is one case where it's well justified.

Sadler said in a KVUE interview that he doesn't buy is Cruz's claim that his win marked a Tea Party "revolution" in Texas.


KVUE News interview with
Paul Sadler, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate

Pointing to the relatively small group of 1.1 million voters who cast Republican primary runoff ballots, Sadler believes a high turnout general election in November could paint a different picture.

Cruz captured only 631,316 (56.8%) statewide votes in the runoff, out of 13,065,425 registered voters and a total Voting Age Population of 18,279,737 Texans. Only 1.4 million people voted in the May 29 Republican primary where Cruz received only 480,558 votes.

(2012 Primary Turnout by VAP)

Sadler told KVUE News that he believes Cruz's Tea Party insurgency is already causing some more moderate Republicans to consider crossing over in the general election.

"We're raising money. Our money has started coming in very rapidly," Sadler said. "In fact, I started getting calls Tuesday afternoon -- a lot from Republicans wanting to donate to the campaign, get involved in the campaign."

When it comes to the reality of pulling off an upset in the one of the nation's most consistently red states, Sadler argues it isn't impossible. The East Texas native believes the numbers to pull off a Democratic win are achievable.

"I'm going to win the Hispanic vote because my policies are right. I'm going to win the African-American vote because my policies are right, and they've always supported me," said Sadler. "I won 14 out of 16 counties in East Texas, which is where I need to win. Even if I just do 45 percent, I win the United States Senate seat."

Sadler points to several issues when it comes to his opponent, including the fact the Ted Cruz was born in Canada and not a "native son" of Texas. He also takes issue with the amount of support Cruz received from out of state super PACs such as Club for Growth, national conservative radio hosts including Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity and Tea Party celebrities Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum.

"I don't want to owe anybody outside the State of Texas our Senate seat. I don't want to owe some group outside the State of Texas our Senate seat," said Sadler. "We'll all own this seat, and we won't owe it to Club for Growth or some other big super PAC; we'll answer to each other for it."

"I'm from here. I've seen the hurricanes on the coast. I've seen the wind storms and the dust storms in West Texas; I've lived through them. I've lived through the drought in Central Texas. I've seen the hot, humid days in the summer in East Texas," said Sadler. "I know this state, and that's what we need in the United States Senate. We don't need some Washington hand-picked lobbyist."

Read the full story @ KVUE News.


Paul Sadler for U.S. Senate campaign video

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