Monday, July 30, 2012

Texas Tea Party Favorite Ted Cruz Is Cruising To Win U.S. Senate Runoff

Public Policy Polling found a 52-42% lead for Texas Tea Party favorite former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz in the U.S. Senate runoff. Cruz is ahead by a whooping 75-22% margin with Tea Party voters, more than making up for a 56-39% deficit to Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst with voters who don't consider themselves members of that movement. Cruz's likely victory Tuesday is also indicative of a generational gap within the Texas Republican ranks. Dewhurst leads with seniors, ages 56-39. But younger Republican voters are going heavily for the Tea Party candidate, 60% to Dewhurst's 33% with voters ages 18-45, and 59% to 35% with voters in the 46-65 age range.

Public Policy Polling: PPP's final poll of the Republican Senate runoff in Texas finds Ted Cruz opening up a 52-42 lead, an increase from our survey two weeks ago that found him ahead 49-44.

Cruz's victory is driven by 4 things: the Tea Party, the enthusiasm of his supporters, a generational divide within the Texas Republican ranks, and the lack of regard the party base currently holds for Rick Perry.

Cruz is ahead by a whooping 75-22 margin with Tea Party voters, more than making up for a 56-39 deficit to Dewhurst with voters who don't consider themselves members of that movement. There has been too much of a tendency to ascribe any Republican primary upset over the last few years to Tea Party voters, but this is one case where it's well justified.

Cruz has a 63-33 advantage with voters who describe themselves as 'very excited' about voting in Tuesday's runoff election. He also has a 49-45 advantage with those describing themselves as 'somewhat excited.' The only reason this race is even remotely competitive is Dewhurst's 59-31 lead with voter who say they're 'not that excited' about voting. It's an open question whether those folks will really show up and if they don't it's possible Cruz could end up winning by closer t0 20 points.

The greater excitement among Cruz voters can also be measured by their eagerness to get out and cast their ballots during the early voting period. Cruz leads 55-40 among those who say they've already voted, so Dewhurst will likely need a huge advantage among election day voters to overcome the deficit. But Cruz has a 49-44 lead with those who have yet to vote too.

Finally this is a story of surrogates and quite possibly a deep repudiation of Rick Perry. By a 31/24 margin voters say they're more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Sarah Palin, who gave her support to Cruz.

Read the full story @ Public Policy Polling

Among the ten largest counties in Texas, Collin County ranked first in Republican voter turnout and second to last in Democratic voter turnout, as percentage of total registered voters. This tale of two parties is indicative of the Tea Party's organizational strength among grassroots conservatives in the county and the Democratic Party's challenge to reconnect with its atrophied grassroots base of voters.

Early Voting Democratic Party Republican Party
County
Reg
Voters
Cumulative
In-Person
Voters
Cumulative
In-Person
And
Mail
Voters
Cumulative
Percent
Early
Voting
Cumulative
In-Person
Voters
Cumulative
In-Person
And
Mail
Voters
Cumulative
Percent
Early
Voting
Harris
1,930,869 9,915 19,019 0.98% 53,040 70,481 3.7%
Dallas
1,136,239 12,806 15,558 1.37% 27,510 33,895 3.0%
Tarrant
937,440 8,710 11,010 1.17% 29,050 34,837 3.7%
Bexar
881,633 11,709 13,958 1.58% 28,187 32,764 3.7%
Travis
597,718 5,181 5,575 0.93% 14,153 16,056 2.7%
Collin
440,085 947 995 0.23% 20,693 22,650 5.1%
El Paso
375,238 7,994 8,284 2.21% 2,043 2,301 0.6%
Denton
369,156 496 536 0.15% 12,739 14,338 3.9%
Fort Bend
326,810 738 834 0.26% 11,412 14,451 4.4%
Hidalgo
296,452 13,742 14,750 4.98% 1,813 2,022 0.7%
Total
7,291,640 72,238 90,519 1.24% 200,640 243,795 3.3%

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