Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Bill White Is Running Neck And Neck With Republican Incumbent Rick Perry

According to a new poll on the 2010 Texas gubernatorial race released by Public Policy Polling, Democratic challenger Bill White is running neck and neck with incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry. They each have 43 percent of the expected vote.

This is notably different from a recent Rasmussen Reports poll, which put Perry ahead of White 48 to 40. [Both critics and defenders of Rasmussen Reports' polling have frequently cited Rasmussen's "likely voter" model to explain why their polls have tended to show substantially more favorable results for Republican candidates than the average of other surveys. - FiveThirtyEight]

Here's some analysis from PPP's blog post announcing the results:
Perry is an unusually weak incumbent, while White is an unusually strong challenger. Only 36% of voters in the state like the job Perry is doing while 49% disapprove. Among independents the numbers are particularly bad — just 27% give Perry good marks to 55% who think he's doing a poor job. White meanwhile is better known and better liked than most challengers running across the country this year. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one and he posts positive numbers with independents at a 35/24 spread.

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