Saturday, August 1, 2009

Where Did All the Republicans Go?

Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from the first six months of 2009 continues to show only four states with a sizable Republican advantage in party identification. As was the case in Gallup's analysis of 2008 yearly data, most states are currently Democratic in their party orientation, with the greatest number (30, including the District of Columbia) classified as solidly Democratic, with an additional 8 states leaning Democratic. Meanwhile, only four states can be considered solidly Republican -- Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Alaska, with Alabama falling into the leaning Republican category.

While the size of the Democratic advantage at the national level has shrunk in the first six months of 2009, this has been due to an increase in independent identification rather than an increase in Republican support. While the Republican Party is still able to compete in elections if they enjoy greater turnout from their supporters or greater support for its candidates from independent voters, the deck is clearly stacked in the Democratic Party's favor for now.

The mid-2009 Gallup state-by-state data continues to show a 42% to 40% Democratic Party identification to Republican Party identification in Texas.

New York Times The January 2009 Gallup poll showed Texas and large swathes of the U.S. to be competitive for Democrats.

Gallup released a report on its survey of political party affiliation by voters at the state level. The results, depicted in the map above, show that only five states have a statistically significant majority of voters who identify themselves as Republicans. The data come from interviews last year with “more than 350,000 U.S. adults as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking.”

The survey shows that Texas is no longer a solid red state and lists Texas as among the “most balanced political states” in party identification. The surveys show that Democrats in Texas now have a slight advantage in party identification, 43% to 41%, a clear reversal from the recent past.

The advance by Democrats is not accidental. Under one party Republican control, Texas ranks last or near last on virtually every issue that affects quality of life for Texas families.


Republicans like Rick Perry, Kay Bailey Hutchison and David Dewhurst have failed as leaders. At the same time, Democrats have reorganized politically, targeted resources carefully and nominated mainstream candidates who put ideology aside to solve problems.

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