Thursday, December 18, 2008

Home Owner's Insurance Reform In 2009 TX Legislative Session

Texans are paying the highest rates for homeowners insurance in the nation -- six years after an insurance crisis led Gov. Rick Perry and numerous state leaders to promise lower rates that never came. Meanwhile, insurance companies have enjoyed record profits.

With Democrats winning more seats in the Texas State Legislature in the 2008 election, homeowners will have an all-too-rare chance at genuine reform when the Legislature once again debates homeowners insurance in the 2009 state legislative session.

In the two legislative sessions since 2003, Speaker Craddick (R) made sure that few reform bills escaped the House Insurance Committee to come up for votes in the full House.

But next year the dynamic will change for two reasons. The House is more closely divided between Democrats and Republican, meaning Craddick, an opponent to reform, may not be speaker. Craddick can't win speaker's chair again for the 2009 legislative session without a block of support from Democrats, and neither can any other Republican. It would be very surprising if many, or any, Democrat(s) back Craddick for the speaker's chair.

More important, the Insurance Department is undergoing sunset review, the regular process by which the Legislature examines state agencies. That ensures that an insurance bill will move through the Legislature. Many Democrats and Republicans, having heard from angry homeowners in their districts, are pushing for more stringent regulation.

With foreclosures on the rise in Texas, many lawmakers realize that reducing consumers’ insurance bills may allow more folks to keep their homes. Also, Republicans may be more anxious to make a show of "supporting the average Texan" after the Houston-based Republican Hill Research firm, raised such serious questions about whether the Republican Party might be in trouble in Texas after a decade of political dominance. Continued Republican opposition or foot dragging on meaningful Home Owner's Insurance Reform in the 2009 legislative session will give Democratic candidates a giant hammer to swing at their Republican opponents during the 2010 election cycle.

Ron Kirk To Be U.S. Trade Representative In Obama Cabinet

Fort Worth Star-Telegram
By Maria Recio
WASHINGTON — Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, initially a front-runner for transportation secretary, has opted to be U.S. trade representative in the Obama administration, sources said.

The announcement of the Cabinet-level position could come as soon as today in Chicago, where President-elect Barack Obama has scheduled a morning news conference.

The prestigious position, which comes with the title of ambassador

Read the full story at star-telegram.com

Those born in Texas, generally stay in Texas

Fort Worth Star-Telegram
By Anna M. Tinsley
There really is no place like home for true Texans.

For now, 75.8 percent of adults born in the Lone Star State still live here — the highest percentage of any state keeping its native residents — making Texas the nation’s "stickiest" state, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of census data released Wednesday.

But it's not just sentiment keeping nearly 24 million people in Texas, where "y'all" and "howdy" are as much fixtures as the deep-rooted cowboy traditions, love of football and pride in the fact that nearly everything is bigger.

"It's jobs, jobs, jobs," said Karl Eschbach, the state demographer at the University of Texas at San Antonio. "With the job creation in the state of Texas, you don't need to leave the state for employment.

"Why would anybody want to leave Texas?" Eschbach asked. "Texans love their state."

Others do, too.

Between 2005 and 2007, nearly 1.7 million new people moved to Texas, but only 1.3 million moved out, which means Texas is keeping more people than it's losing, said D'Vera Cohn, a senior writer with the Pew Research Center who co-authored the study.

Read the full story at star-telegram.com

Another Republican Running For Hutchison's Senate Seat

Michael Williams, the Republican Chairman of the Texas Railroad Commission, who was re-elected in the November 2008 election, and one of the most prominent African-American Republicans in the nation, released a statement announcing his candidacy for Senator Hutchison's Senate seat.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Houston Mayor Bill White To Run For Hutchison’s Seat

TheHill.com
By Reid Wilson
Posted: 12/16/08


The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has scored its first recruiting victory in Houston Mayor Bill White, perhaps the highest-profile Democrat in Texas. White decided over the weekend to run for Hutchison’s seat. Hutchison has filed the committee paperwork for a 2010 gubernatorial run. The filing does not commit her to the race and her Senate seat is not up until 2012, and Texas law does not require her to resign from the Senate while running for governor.

Todd Olsen, a spokesman for Hutchison’s Austin-based gubernatorial committee, told The Hill in December if Hutchison did resign from the Senate early, she would ask Gov. Rick Perry (R) to hold a special election to fill the seat. Perry also has the option of appointing an interim senator.

White’s entry gives Democrats a decent shot in one of the reddest states in the country two years after the party’s under-funded challenger to Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) clocked in at 43 percent of the vote.

Video: Mayor Bill White announces he will run for Senator Hutchison's Senate seat.


Bill White's Campaign Website
Bill White hits the Rio Grand Valley in preparation for his Senate run

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Republican Party Looses As Democratic Party Gains

Motivated by deep religious convictions, GOP religious conservatives believe that the true "family values" moral code for society can be found only in religion and that "true moral code" should be enforced by the law of the land. This explains their unyielding efforts to encode in laws and constitutional amendments, at the state and federal levels, government mandates of their particular interpretation of "family values." As religious conservatives have increasingly dominated the Republican party they have forced out almost all moderate and "traditional Republican" elements of the party. Politically moderate white Christians are not necessarily motivated by "family values" issues and liberal white Christians outright reject the concept of encoding "family values" moral code in laws and constitutional amendments.

The modern Republican Party has moved far from the conservative principals defined by the legendary Conservative Republican Senator Barry Goldwater who said:
"By maintaining the separation of church and state, the United States has avoided the intolerance which has so divided the rest of the world with religious wars... Can any of us refute the wisdom of Madison and the other framers? Can anyone look at the carnage in Iran, the bloodshed in Northern Ireland, or the bombs bursting in Lebanon and yet question the dangers of injecting religious issues into the affairs of state? "The religious factions will go on imposing their will on others unless the decent people connected to them recognize that religion has no place in public policy. They must learn to make their views known without trying to make their views the only alternatives."

Goldwater also said: "I believe a woman has a right to an abortion. That's a decision that's up to the pregnant woman, not up to the pope or some do-gooders or the Religious Right.... There is no place in this country for practicing religion in politics."
Lincoln Chafee quit the Republican Party and has become an Independent -- and many Republicans -- such as former Republican Congressman Jim Leach and Republican philanthropist and international lawyer Rita Hauser among others -- have not officially left the Republican party, but did organize behind Obama. Christine Todd Whitman and long term Colin Powell aide Lawrence Wilkerson want their party back. Sarah Palin helped push the Republican Party farther to the right this election – a polarization which could lead to the downfall of the party, insists Colin Powell.
"I think that in the latter months of the campaign, the party moved further to the right. Governor Palin, to some extent, pushed the party more to the right. And I think she had something of a polarizing effect when she talked about small-town values are good."
President Eisenhower's granddaughter, Susan Eisenhower, a realist/strategist, Eisenhower-style Republican has quit her grandfather's party. -- really a "wow" moment-- Read her entire statement issued on National Interest Online, a publication affiliated with the Nixon Center, but here is a clip of her statement:
I have decided I can no longer be a registered Republican.

For the first time in my life I announced my support for a Democratic candidate for the presidency, in February of this year. This was not an endorsement of the Democratic platform, nor was it a slap in the face to the Republican Party. It was an expression of support specifically for Senator Barack Obama.

I had always intended to go back to party ranks after the election and work with my many dedicated friends and colleagues to help reshape the GOP, especially in the foreign-policy arena. But I now know I will be more effective focusing on our national and international problems than I will be in trying to reinvigorate a political organization that has already consumed nearly all of its moderate "seed corn."

And now, as the party threatens to trivialize what promised to be a serious debate on our future direction, it will alienate many young people who might have come into party ranks.

My decision came at the end of last week when it was demonstrated to the nation that McCain and this Bush White House have learned little in the last five years.

They mishandled what became a crisis in the Caucuses, and this has undermined U.S. national security. At the same time, the McCain camp appears to be comfortable with running an unworthy Karl Rove-style political campaign. Will the McCain operation, and its sponsors, do anything to win?
Even as people have become disenfranchised from the Republican Party and shift party party allegiances, the share of Americans who self-describe their political views as liberal, conservative or moderate has remained stable over the years. Only about one-in-five Americans currently call themselves liberal (21%), while 38% say they are conservative and 36% describe themselves as moderate. This is virtually unchanged from recent years; when George W. Bush was first elected president, 18% of Americans said they were liberal, 36% were conservative and 38% considered themselves moderate according to a November 2008 Pew Research Center Report.

While the relative proportion of liberals, conservatives and moderates has little changed the proportion of voters identifying with the Democratic Party has grown significantly since the 2004 election, and the shift has been particularly dramatic among younger voters. Fully 61% of voters ages 18 to 29 identify or lean Democratic and a comparable percentage supports Barack Obama. But Democratic gains in party affiliation among older voters since 2004 have been much more modest. Moreover, support for Obama among voters ages 50 and older is slightly lower than the share of this cohort that identifies with the Democratic Party.

In Pew surveys conducted since August of this year, 51% of all voters say they think of themselves as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, up five points from 46% during the same period in 2004. Meanwhile, the number identifying with or leaning toward the Republican Party has fallen from 45% to 41%. In this cycle, the Democratic Party enjoys a 10-point advantage in party identification, compared with a one-point edge in the fall of 2004.

The greatest gains for the Democratic Party have come among younger voters. The percentage of voters ages 18 to 29 identifying with the Democratic Party has increased from 48% in the fall of 2004 to 61% currently. Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a margin of nearly two-to-one (61% to 32%) in this age group, up from only a seven-point advantage in 2004.

Voters ages 30 to 49, a group that includes the more conservative "Generation X, "also have shifted considerably since 2004. Nearly half (49%) of voters in this age group identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, up from 43% in 2004. Democrats currently have a six-point advantage over Republicans among voters in this age group.

Overall, more whites continue to identify as Republicans than as Democrats (48% vs. 44%); this is narrower than the 52%-to-40% advantage the GOP held in 2004. Since then, Democratic Party identification has increased four points (from 40% to 44%) among white voters. (see The Incredible Shrinking Republican Base)

Notably, the balance of party identification among younger white voters has reversed, from an 11-point advantage for the GOP in 2004 to an 11-point advantage for the Democrats today.

NYT:
Southern counties that voted more heavily Republican this year than in 2004 tended to be poorer, less educated and whiter, a statistical analysis by The New York Times shows. Mr. Obama won in only 44 counties in the Appalachian belt, a stretch of 410 counties that runs from New York to Mississippi. Many of those counties, rural and isolated, have been less exposed to the diversity, educational achievement and economic progress experienced by more prosperous areas. ... The Republicans, meanwhile, have “become a Southernized party,” said Thomas Schaller, a political scientist who teaches at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. “They have completely marginalized themselves to a mostly regional party,” he said, pointing out that nearly half of the current Republican House delegation is now Southern... Less than a third of Southern whites voted for Mr. Obama, compared with 43 percent of whites nationally.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Teaching Creationism Has Evolved

Forty years ago, in Epperson v. Arkansas, the US Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional an Arkansas law that banned the teaching of evolution. “The [Arkansas] law’s effort was confined to an attempt to blot out a particular theory because of its supposed conflict with the Biblical account, literally read,” the court wrote in its decision.

The ruling was the first major judicial blow to creationists, who had largely silenced evolutionary education in many states across the country—ever since John Scopes was convicted in 1925 of the crime of teaching evolution in Tennessee’s infamous Scopes Monkey Trial.

Since Charles Darwin first put forth his idea of natural selection, the scientific community has viewed evolutionary theory as the unifying principle of biology. Among scientists, there is virtually no debate over its validity. And despite what religious fundamentalists insist, there is no credible scientific evidence backing up young earth creationism.

But instead of ending the cultural battle between religion and science, the Epperson case ignited what has been a four-decade fight to keep God out of science class. Since the Epperson v. Arkansas ruling anti-evolution laws morphed with each constitutional defeat into “equal time” laws and now “academic freedom” laws. Creationism, in trying to pass judicial muster, shape shifted into “creation science,” then into “intelligent design,” and now “strength-and-weakness” requirements.

George W. Bush's recent statement that he believes the Bible is "probably not" literally true has apparently left many Christian conservatives reeling in shock. Bush made the controversial statement during a interview on ABC's Nightline. Bush further stated in the interview, "I think that God created the Earth ... and I don't think it's incompatible with the scientific proof that there is evolution."

Now this nation will soon be led by a president who firmly embraces evolution theory—and the eight years of a Bush administration hostile to science are almost over. President-elect Barack Obama has expressed firm support for eliminating Bush administration practices of censoring government agency scientific papers, promised to lead a green technological revolution and has pledged to return the United States to its vaunted position as a leader of scientific innovation.

While an Obama presidency may spell good news for science, the truth is that he is unlikely to have much of an impact on the teaching of evolutionary theory on the ground. The Texas state Board of Education is reviewing its science standards in preparation for approval next year.

The results of the board’s decision will undoubtedly have wide repercussions. The review of the standards is to establish guidelines for textbook publishers, who are watching the process closely.

In September, writing teams had removed a requirement that had had been inserted years earlier that said students must learn the “strengths and weaknesses” of scientific theories like evolution. But earlier this month, three new reviewers with strong intelligent-design connections, including Stephen Meyer, vice president of the pro-ID Discovery Institute, were appointed by the creationist-friendly board members to look at the standards. In a new draft submitted last week, students would be required to learn “strengths and limitations” in three courses.

In addition, the new draft calls on middle school students to “discuss possible alternative explanations” for scientific concepts, opening the door for supernatural explanations like creationism.

Republican Domination of U.S. Appellate Courts

The Washington Post reports that George W. Bush has been enormously successful at placing his picks on federal appeals courts and that has led to Republican domination of most of the nation's judicial circuits. The article begins by focusing on the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals, which includes Michigan, noting a particular case where the full panel of judges overruled a ruling by a smaller appeals court panel:
Prosecutors appealed to all of the judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit. And the full court, dominated by appointees of President Bush and other Republican presidents, reversed the initial appellate ruling, saying the evidence presented by prosecutors was sufficient to merit Arnold's conviction.

Other criminal defendants, including some on death row, remain in federal prisons for the same reason: After initial appellate verdicts that their convictions or sentences were unjust, the last word came from Bush's judicial picks on the 6th Circuit. Acting in cooperation with other Republican appointees on the court, they have repeatedly organized full-court rehearings to overturn rulings by panels dominated by Democratic appointees.
When the full slate of judges in a judicial circuit agree to hear a case and possibly overturn the ruling handed down by the normal panel of three judges that hear such appeals, this is called an en banc rehearing. The numbers that demonstrate just how solidly Bush has packed the courts with Republican judges are pretty compelling:
After Bush's eight years in office, Republican-appointed majorities firmly control the outcomes in 10 of these courts, compared with seven after President Bill Clinton's tenure. They also now share equal representation with Democratic appointees on two additional courts.
That's out of a total of 13 judicial circuits (12 regular regional circuits plus the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which hears special national cases). In 2001, the political breakdown of the nation's appeals court was about even, with 77 judges appointed by Democrats, 74 by Republicans and 27 vacancies. The current breakdown is 66 Democrats, 102 Republicans and 11 vacancies.

A WaPo investigation showed that over the last five years, out of 28 cases where an en banc appeal of a ruling handed down by a primarily Democratic panel of judges was granted, the right leaning 6th circuit, reversed 17 of those rulings.

The Incredible Shrinking Republican Base

The survey, conducted by David Hill, (PDF) who operates the Houston-based Republican Hill Research firm, raises questions about whether the Republican Party might be in trouble in Texas after a decade of political dominance. Hill's survey states, in no uncertain terms, that for GOP candidates to succeed in Texas they must look beyond the party's base voters and wrap up 80 percent of independent voters that he calls the Critical Middle. Mr. Hill concludes that the party needs to move away from a hard-line focus on social conservatism and refocus on a “clear and consistent” fiscal conservatism pocketbook issues that were at the forefront of voter concerns in this year’s election – health care, jobs creation, the banking system and the economy in general and energy.

Hill warns in no uncertain terms that for Texas GOP candidates to succeed they must put primary focus on core conservative pocketbook issues to attract 80% of the "Critical Middle" independents to party candidates. Mr. Hill concludes, “This isn’t ‘optional’ - anything less means Republicans lose.”

GOP candidates need "Critical Middle" independents because well before election day 2008, a partisan shift was under way around the U.S. For more than three years starting in 2005, there has been a reduction in the number of voters who register with the Republican Party and a rise among voters who affiliate with Democrats and, almost as often, with no party at all.

In other words the demographic that current defines most of the Republican base is shrinking. Some areas of Texas, such as Collin County, lags this partisan shift trend, but Mr. Hill's research shows that Texas is as susceptible to this partisan shift as was Colorado, which turned into a blue state this election year.

As America, and many areas of Texas, becomes more diverse, the percentage of the population that makes up the Republican base has nosedived. (Source: NES Cumulative File)

Where married white Christians made up nearly 80% of the adult U.S. population in the 1950s, married white Christians now make up less than half of all voters in the United States and less than one fifth of voters under the age of 30. The Census Bureau issued a press release in the summer of 2008 that projects that by 2042, the United States will no longer be a White majority nation.

Meanwhile, the demographics of the GOP have gone in the opposite direction. (Source: NES Cumulative File)

In the 1950s, married white Christians made up just over 40% of the Republican Party -- today they make up about 90% of the party with the majority now more narrowly defining themselves as Social Conservative Christians.

Between the 1970s and the first decade of the 21st century, Republican identification among conservative married white Christians increased by 26 points, going from 64 percent to 90 percent.

During the same time period, Republican identification among moderate married white Christians increased by only five points, going from 38 percent to 43 percent and Republican identification among liberal married white Christians actually declined by 10 points, falling from 23 percent to 13 percent. Implicit in Mr. Hill's research findings is the fact that there are no more untapped Conservative married white Christians to attract into the party. As Mr. Hill suggests, the GOP must increase its support among "Critical Middle" moderate-to-liberal married white Christians who are motivated by concerns other than the standard conservative "family values" hot-button issues.

Republicans need to come to terms with the fact that shifting demographics over the last four years has caused the GOP to lose control of every level of government across the U.S.
  • After the 2004 election Republicans had a 232-202 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. After the 2008 election Democrats have a 257-178 lead. In the Senate, Republicans had a 55-45 majority after the 2004 election, which flipped to Democratic advantage of 58-42 (or maybe 59-41) after the 2008 election.
  • After the 2004 election, Republicans held 28 governorships compared with 22 for the Democrats. After the 2008 election, Democrats now hold 29 governorships compared with just 21 for the Republicans.
  • After the 2004 election, Republicans controlled the state legislature in 20 states compared with 19 Democratic-controlled states. Now, Democrats control the state legislatures of 27 states, with the Republicans controlling only 14 states.
  • And there are now over 800 more Democratic state legislators than Republicans in the country, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures Web site. Just four years ago, Democrats had a mere 10-seat edge out of more than 7,000 nationwide.
GOP dominance in the 2008 presidential election diminished to a strip of red states, primarily across the southern bible belt, as shown by this MyDD map, distorted to show electoral votes and thus population.
Hill's suggestion that the GOP should move away from a hard-line focus on social conservatism and refocus on core fiscal conservatism pocketbook issues in Texas will likely be a hard sell. Religious conservatives, which dominates the Texas GOP, become defensive at any suggestion that they or their Social Conservative "family values" agenda has had anything to do with the GOP's erosion. Indeed, religious conservatives are saying the Republican Party must refocus on a social conservatism agenda for the 2010 and 2012 elections. Both camps of conservatives seem to be saying the party is losing because it is not conservative enough, but each point to their own brand of conservatism.

The immediate future will be a bloody brawl for the soul and direction of the GOP. Will the GOP leadership define "return to core conservative beliefs" as a refocus to be a small government party of tax-cutting free-market deregulators at a time of an enormous government deficits, massive bailouts and economic crisis brought on in part by these same policies? Or, will it define "return to core religious conservative beliefs" as a refocus on a social conservatism agenda with Sarah Palin at the head of the party.

White evangelical Protestants are the most conservative Republicans: 79% describe their political views as conservative, compared with 17% who say they are moderate and just 2% who call themselves liberal. Republican white mainline Protestants and white non-Hispanic Catholics also are largely conservative (63% and 66%, respectively), but about three-in-ten in each group say their views are moderate (31% among white mainline Protestants and 30% among white Catholics).

Just consider these numbers from a post 2008 election WSJ/NBC poll: among Republicans only, the most popular person tested in the poll is the dues-paid-in-full member of the Evangelical right Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with a whopping 73%-13% favorable-unfavorable rating. On the other hand conservative columnist Kathleen Parker, who received piles of hate mail during the Presidential campaign for questioning Sarah Palin's credentials, wrote a column for the Washington Post, entitled, "Giving Up on God," makes a sustained argument that the GOP's courting of the religious vote above all has led the party dangerously astray. In that WSJ/NBC poll Palin's polling score among all groups was a net negative approval-disapproval of 35%-45% -- which means she fares poorly among both Democrats and Independents.

Texas Democrats are starting to look toward toward future campaigns and some Democrats have settled on a rallying cry, "Texas is next."

It sounds improbable for the Republican bastion that produced President Bush and served as an early laboratory for Karl Rove's hard-nosed tactics. But Texas is one of several reliably red states that are now in Democrats' sights as party strategists analyze 2008 election results that they believe show the contours of a new progressive movement that could grow and prove long-lasting.

A multi-ethnic bloc of Latinos, blacks, young people and suburban whites helped to broaden the party's reach in 2008. That new formulation of voters was evident in state exit polls and county-level election results (see map) showing that Democrats scored gains from a voting base that is growing progressively less white-married-christian than the population that helped forge Republican advantages in past elections.

Both Republican and Democratic strategists believe the large and growing Latino population in Texas remains untapped, along with a large black electorate, which could make Texas competitive with a major investment of time and money from an Obama-led Democratic Party.

The map at left shows the U.S. Congressional districts carried by Democratic candidates in the 2008 election. This shows that Democrats can win in large sections of the state.

Cuauhtemoc "Temo" Figueroa, Obama's top Latino outreach official, has commented that Texas could be taken seriously as a presidential battleground if Democrats could win statewide races there in 2010. "I don't know if it's four years or eight years off, but down the road, Texas will be a presidential battleground," Figueroa said.

Some Republican strategists like Mr. Hill warn that their party faces demographic challenges with the Latino vote growing and moving toward Democrats. Most Texas Republicans dismiss the warning that the GOP needs to worry about a long-term GOP deficit in the state. After all, Obama carried only 28 of the 254 Texas counties, only narrowly winning critical Harris county, and the McCain/Palin ticket easily carry critical Terrant, Denton and Collin counties.

County By County Presidential Voting Results

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Republican Brand Growing Weak In Texas

The Republican Party heads into the New Year with its brand tattered by the election after decisive losses in the 2008 presidential and congressional races. Such a defeat inevitably leads to introspection in party circles about its message going forward.

Actually, the Republican Party's brand image was in decline well before the 2008 election cycle. In December 2005, the Republicans and the Democrats were rated about equally nationally, with just under half of Americans viewing each party favorably. Shortly thereafter, the Republicans' favorable rating fell to 36%, and has since remained in that territory. The Democrats' favorable rating gradually improved during 2006, and has not fallen below 51% since the spring of that year.

The full results of a much-anticipated Republican Party of Texas introspection survey by the Houston-based Republican firm Hill Research were officially released on Monday. This survey of Texas voters yields much the same message as other surveys conducted around the U.S. during November 2008.

According to a November 2008 Gallup poll the Republican Party's image has gone from bad to worse over the past month, as only 34% of Americans say they have a favorable view of the party, down from 40% in mid-October. The 61% unfavorable view of the GOP is the highest unfavorable reading Gallup has recorded for that party since the measure was established in 1992.



The only thing surprising about a 61% unfavorable view of the GOP is, perhaps, that the unfavorable number is not higher considering 87% of Americans are dissatisfied with the direction the Republican philosophy of governance has take the county according to the Gallup's weekly survey question, "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?"

Survey Date Satisfied Dissatisfied Unsure
11/13-16/08 11 87 2
11/7-9/08 13 84 3
10/31-11/2/08 13 85 2

Texans are not as dissatisfied with GOP as Americans in general, but they are also unhappy - as Hill Research's statewide poll of 636 active Texas voters voters shows:
Texas voters increasingly unhappy with GOP - The Dallas Morning News
Poll's shocking SOS for Texas GOP - The Dallas Morning News

The survey, conducted by David Hill, raises questions about whether the Republican Party might be in trouble after a decade of political dominance in Texas.

"The poll results challenge the conventional wisdom that Texas is a solidly red state," said Mr. Hill. "This shows that the Republican Party's image, even among Anglos and conservatives and self-professed Republicans, is often not what we would like it to be."

Texas voters don't think the GOP is delivering government that is low-cost, in-touch or devoted to the common good, the poll shows.

Mr. Hill said he found that perceptions of Republicans as arrogant, corrupt, angry and unwelcoming jeopardize the party's dominance. The GOP currently holds every statewide office and controls the Legislature.

Half the voters polled believe the state is on the wrong track; only 37 percent believe Texas is headed in the right direction.
Only 32% of those surveyed Mr. Hill believe that Republican candidates "deserves" to be elected to office. While 45% say they approve of the way Republicans run government in Texas only 15% say they strongly approve. This compares to 35% who say they strongly disapprove of Republican performance and another 15% who somewhat disapprove for a total disapproval rating of 50%.



In Gallup's November poll more than half of Americans, 55%, currently hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party and only 39% an unfavorable view, highly typical of views toward the Democrats through all of 2008. In Mr. Hill's survey 54% of Texans say give Democrats a chance, a number that seems to match up with Gallup's reading that 55% of Americans currently hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party.



In a head-to-head match up today between a generic Democratic candidate for governor and a generic Republican, the Democrat starts out with a 13 percent advantage. In a state representative race, the Democratic advantage is 14 percent.

snapshot-2008-12-04-16-02-09.jpg

The next slide from the survey data details what voters don’t like, generically, about Republicans. Voters think the Republicans are arrogant, racist, corrupt and angry. While they think Democrats are smart, innovative, reformers, fair, thoughtful and, perhaps most importantly, the party of the future. As Hill Research notes, long-term, this is simply an untenable position for a political party that hopes to maintain its dominate position.

snapshot-2008-12-04-16-01-11.jpg

Neither party can win majority power in State or Federal elections without attracting substantial support from political independents. Hill Research slices the voting population into five distinct segments that includes the independent "Critical Middle" block of voters. It is the Critical Middle - those “not in either camp solidly - that Republicans must hold to win elections in Texas. This group is heavily male, under age 50, self-described moderate and/or independent and focused on fiscal rather than social "morality" issues.

snapshot-2008-12-04-16-24-21.jpg

Hill warns in no uncertain terms that for GOP campaigns to succeed they must wrap up 80 percent of the Critical Middle. “This isn’t ‘optional’ - anything less means Republicans lose.”

The Texas Republican Party, controlled in large part by religious conservatives, is going to have to make some serious changes to accommodate the Critical Middle voters. This group is not much swayed by the GOP's mainstay “traditional morality values” augments. At the state level, few voters care much about abortion, school prayer and other staunch social conservatism hot-button issues. What they do rate as important are cutting property taxes, child health care, job security, the economy and paying for their children's education.

The Democratic Party is enjoying an extended stretch of popularity with Americans that started in 2006, and is likely to continue as long as its new party leader, President-elect Barack Obama, continues to inspire high confidence ratings -- and eventually job approval ratings -- from the American people.

Since the Democratic Party is already closely identified as supporting health care, job security and education issues, a popular President Obama could help convince the Critical Middle to vote for Democratic candidates in 2010 and 2012.

The initial impulse of rank and file Republicans is to tack to the right -- returning to core "conservative" principles, as many Republican thought leaders are currently advocating. Given only about a third of independents want the party to be more conservative, it is unclear how much that approach might help to expand the Republican base.

Since most rank-and-file (largely religious conservatives) Republicans (59%) want to see the party move in a more conservative direction the party will likely field 2010 candidates that tend to be more rather than less conservative. The Hill Research Survey report concludes with some recommendations that indicates that isn't the way to attract "Critical Middle" voters.

snapshot-2008-12-04-16-46-33.jpg



snapshot-2008-12-04-16-50-43.jpg

Election 2010 Already Getting Interesting

Former Texas Comptroller John Sharp announced this week announced that he is in the running for the U.S. Senate seat that Kay Bailey Hutchison is expected to vacate as early as June 2009 to pursue her run for governor.

Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams announced this week that he also intends to join the Republican primary race to replace U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Williams' announcement was largely eclipsed by former Texas Comptroller John Sharp’s announcement. Williams, a car dealer, was widely considered to be a likely candidate for Texas Governor race in 2010.

Since 2006, speculation has mounted that Hutchison would abandon her safe senate seat to take on Governor Rick Perry in the 2010 GOP Primary for Governor. Hutchison toyed with the idea of making a similar run in 2002 and 2006 and ultimately made neither race. This time, however, she seems to be making the race for real, having formally formed an exploratory committee and populated it with a million dollars from her very substantial "senate" campaign war chest and taking an "exploratory" campaign tour of south Texas last August.

Speculation has focused on potential runs by U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, Tony Garza and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst for the Republican nomination to replace Gov. Rick Perry. Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza has ruled out the possibility of running for Texas governor in 2010. Gov. Rick Perry said in April 2008 that he will run for re-election in 2010, possibly setting up a bruising primary battle with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.

Next question is who will step forward as the Democratic candidate for the governor's office and the U.S. Senate seat that Kay Bailey Hutchison leaves open. Did everyone save their Rick Noriega yard signs?

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Kay Bailey Hutchison Eyes Tx Governor's Office

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison filed papers on December 4th to establish an exploratory committee to run for the Texas governor's office in the 2010 election.

The filing clears the way for Ms. Hutchison to open a campaign office and begin raising money to challenge Gov. Rick Perry for the Republican nomination. Hutchison had $8.6 million in her federal campaign account as of Sept. 30, and virtually all of it could be used for her campaign to over the governor’s office from Perry.

Mr. Perry has said he intends to seek re-election to the office he’s held since 2000, when he succeeded George W. Bush. Ms. Hutchison has increasingly indicated in recent months that she would challenge him.

“While Texas is faring somewhat better economically than many other states, a positive future is not guaranteed. It will take leaders who look ahead to meet the economic and budgetary challenges that are coming,” she said in a prepared statement.

“Texans deserve a governor who, in the context of sound budgetary policies and low taxes, works for quality schools and universities, access to health care for our families, communities safe from crime and drugs, protection of private property rights, safe transportation and a government that listens and responds to them," she said.

“There is too much bitterness, too much anger, too little trust, too little consensus and too much infighting. And the tone comes from the top. Texans are looking for leadership and results.”

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Collin County Presidential Voting Results

Pct Ballot
Type
Reg.
Voters
Times
Count
Turn
Out
TL
Vote
McCain
Palin
(REP)
Count
McCain
Palin
(REP)
%
Obama
Biden
(DEM)
Obama
Biden
(DEM)
%
Barr
Root
(LIB)
Barr
Root
(LIB)
%
1 Poll 1702 212 12% 211 108 51% 97 46% 4 2%
1 Paper 1702 41 2% 40 16 40% 23 58% 0 0%
1 Mail 1702 654 38% 647 428 66% 215 33% 1 0%
1 Early 1702 673 40% 663 378 57% 279 42% 4 1%
1 Total 1702 1580 93% 1561 930 60% 614 39% 9 1%
2 Poll 2984 443 15% 443 228 51% 201 45% 9 2%
2 Paper 2984 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
2 Mail 2984 18 1% 18 11 61% 6 33% 1 6%
2 Early 2984 1160 39% 1155 617 53% 527 46% 5 0%
2 Total 2984 1621 54% 1616 856 53% 734 45% 15 1%
3 Poll 1973 190 10% 185 65 35% 118 64% 1 1%
3 Paper 1973 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
3 Mail 1973 1 0% 1 0 0% 1 100% 0 0%
3 Early 1973 566 29% 559 119 21% 433 77% 5 1%
3 Total 1973 757 38% 745 184 25% 552 74% 6 1%
4 Poll 702 158 23% 156 118 76% 34 22% 3 2%
4 Paper 702 17 2% 17 11 65% 6 35% 0 0%
4 Mail 702 185 26% 182 145 80% 34 19% 2 1%
4 Early 702 312 44% 307 219 71% 83 27% 4 1%
4 Total 702 672 96% 662 493 74% 157 24% 9 1%
5 Poll 1022 137 13% 137 93 68% 40 29% 1 1%
5 Paper 1022 6 1% 5 4 80% 1 20% 0 0%
5 Mail 1022 228 22% 225 153 68% 70 31% 0 0%
5 Early 1022 533 52% 529 401 76% 122 23% 2 0%
5 Total 1022 904 88% 896 651 73% 233 26% 3 0%
6 Poll 5581 879 16% 875 605 69% 249 28% 13 1%
6 Paper 5581 9 0% 9 5 56% 4 44% 0 0%
6 Mail 5581 218 4% 217 161 74% 52 24% 1 0%
6 Early 5581 3190 57% 3186 1898 60% 1255 39% 15 0%
6 Total 5581 4296 77% 4287 2669 62% 1560 36% 29 1%
7 Poll 1612 255 16% 252 145 58% 95 38% 7 3%
7 Paper 1612 3 0% 3 1 33% 2 67% 0 0%
7 Mail 1612 159 10% 158 102 65% 55 35% 1 1%
7 Early 1612 732 45% 732 417 57% 307 42% 5 1%
7 Total 1612 1149 71% 1145 665 58% 459 40% 13 1%
8 Poll 2541 603 24% 597 401 67% 179 30% 8 1%
8 Paper 2541 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
8 Mail 2541 12 0% 12 10 83% 2 17% 0 0%
8 Early 2541 773 30% 767 565 74% 197 26% 5 1%
8 Total 2541 1388 55% 1376 976 71% 378 27% 13 1%
9 Poll 3297 781 24% 767 540 70% 205 27% 15 2%
9 Paper 3297 6 0% 4 2 50% 2 50% 0 0%
9 Mail 3297 103 3% 94 66 70% 24 26% 2 2%
9 Early 3297 1204 37% 1195 821 69% 354 30% 10 1%
9 Total 3297 2094 64% 2060 1429 69% 585 28% 27 1%
10 Poll 394 135 34% 132 95 72% 33 25% 1 1%
10 Paper 394 7 2% 5 5 100% 0 0% 0 0%
10 Mail 394 115 29% 113 86 76% 27 24% 0 0%
10 Early 394 119 30% 117 83 71% 29 25% 1 1%
10 Total 394 376 95% 367 269 73% 89 24% 2 1%
11 Poll 3640 966 27% 954 689 72% 258 27% 4 0%
11 Paper 3640 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
11 Mail 3640 23 1% 23 22 96% 1 4% 0 0%
11 Early 3640 1219 33% 1202 870 72% 318 26% 11 1%
11 Total 3640 2208 61% 2179 1581 73% 577 26% 15 1%
12 Poll 4171 761 18% 761 535 70% 212 28% 10 1%
12 Paper 4171 12 0% 12 10 83% 2 17% 0 0%
12 Mail 4171 501 12% 496 371 75% 121 24% 4 1%
12 Early 4171 2098 50% 2090 1461 70% 607 29% 18 1%
12 Total 4171 3372 81% 3359 2377 71% 942 28% 32 1%
13 Poll 1817 447 25% 447 352 79% 85 19% 7 2%
13 Paper 1817 1 0% 1 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
13 Mail 1817 135 7% 135 95 70% 40 30% 0 0%
13 Early 1817 870 48% 864 595 69% 261 30% 5 1%
13 Total 1817 1453 80% 1447 1042 72% 386 27% 12 1%
14 Poll 5545 953 17% 951 532 56% 404 42% 11 1%
14 Paper 5545 15 0% 15 7 47% 7 47% 0 0%
14 Mail 5545 1979 36% 1962 1143 58% 804 41% 7 0%
14 Early 5545 2837 51% 2831 1412 50% 1399 49% 16 1%
14 Total 5545 5784 104% 5759 3094 54% 2614 45% 34 1%
15 Poll 1479 248 17% 248 144 58% 96 39% 5 2%
15 Paper 1479 17 1% 17 6 35% 11 65% 0 0%
15 Mail 1479 478 32% 476 327 69% 140 29% 3 1%
15 Early 1479 649 44% 644 336 52% 305 47% 2 0%
15 Total 1479 1392 94% 1385 813 59% 552 40% 10 1%
16 Poll 3176 962 30% 955 737 77% 200 21% 12 1%
16 Paper 3176 1 0% 1 0 0% 1 100% 0 0%
16 Mail 3176 50 2% 47 35 74% 12 26% 0 0%
16 Early 3176 1192 38% 1184 804 68% 372 31% 6 1%
16 Total 3176 2205 69% 2187 1576 72% 585 27% 18 1%
17 Poll 4715 1403 30% 1397 964 69% 405 29% 19 1%
17 Paper 4715 4 0% 3 1 33% 2 67% 0 0%
17 Mail 4715 58 1% 58 49 84% 6 10% 2 3%
17 Early 4715 1702 36% 1691 1118 66% 547 32% 11 1%
17 Total 4715 3167 67% 3149 2132 68% 960 30% 32 1%
18 Poll 779 235 30% 233 172 74% 57 24% 2 1%
18 Paper 779 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
18 Mail 779 1 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 0 0%
18 Early 779 231 30% 229 165 72% 60 26% 1 0%
18 Total 779 467 60% 463 338 73% 117 25% 3 1%
19 Poll 1660 302 18% 300 204 68% 89 30% 6 2%
19 Paper 1660 35 2% 34 17 50% 15 44% 1 3%
19 Mail 1660 681 41% 679 420 62% 251 37% 3 0%
19 Early 1660 887 53% 886 582 66% 297 34% 3 0%
19 Total 1660 1905 115% 1899 1223 64% 652 34% 13 1%
20 Poll 944 371 39% 366 286 78% 76 21% 3 1%
20 Paper 944 16 2% 14 9 64% 5 36% 0 0%
20 Mail 944 85 9% 85 69 81% 13 15% 2 2%
20 Early 944 329 35% 326 237 73% 88 27% 1 0%
20 Total 944 801 85% 791 601 76% 182 23% 6 1%
21 Poll 3856 599 16% 598 365 61% 216 36% 13 2%
21 Paper 3856 53 1% 51 16 31% 30 59% 1 2%
21 Mail 3856 617 16% 613 399 65% 200 33% 8 1%
21 Early 3856 1983 51% 1976 1184 60% 763 39% 20 1%
21 Total 3856 3252 84% 3238 1964 61% 1209 37% 42 1%
22 Poll 3098 925 30% 924 716 77% 196 21% 6 1%
22 Paper 3098 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
22 Mail 3098 28 1% 28 24 86% 4 14% 0 0%
22 Early 3098 1079 35% 1072 830 77% 238 22% 2 0%
22 Total 3098 2032 66% 2024 1570 78% 438 22% 8 0%
23 Poll 1009 137 14% 136 44 32% 88 65% 1 1%
23 Paper 1009 10 1% 10 6 60% 4 40% 0 0%
23 Mail 1009 575 57% 574 389 68% 176 31% 3 1%
23 Early 1009 378 37% 374 91 24% 279 75% 3 1%
23 Total 1009 1100 109% 1094 530 48% 547 50% 7 1%
24 Poll 2439 414 17% 414 215 52% 192 46% 4 1%
24 Paper 2439 18 1% 18 2 11% 15 83% 0 0%
24 Mail 2439 370 15% 370 210 57% 151 41% 4 1%
24 Early 2439 995 41% 992 412 42% 572 58% 4 0%
24 Total 2439 1797 74% 1794 839 47% 930 52% 12 1%
25 Poll 7005 836 12% 832 541 65% 279 34% 10 1%
25 Paper 7005 18 0% 18 6 33% 8 44% 2 11%
25 Mail 7005 336 5% 336 204 61% 125 37% 0 0%
25 Early 7005 4481 64% 4464 2655 59% 1764 40% 20 0%
25 Total 7005 5671 81% 5650 3406 60% 2176 39% 32 1%
26 Poll 1527 336 22% 330 191 58% 135 41% 4 1%
26 Paper 1527 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
26 Mail 1527 22 1% 22 16 73% 6 27% 0 0%
26 Early 1527 631 41% 626 375 60% 244 39% 4 1%
26 Total 1527 989 65% 978 582 60% 385 39% 8 1%
27 Poll 5577 924 17% 921 628 68% 281 31% 7 1%
27 Paper 5577 30 1% 29 17 59% 10 34% 0 0%
27 Mail 5577 231 4% 231 169 73% 60 26% 1 0%
27 Early 5577 3025 54% 3016 1914 63% 1070 35% 17 1%
27 Total 5577 4210 75% 4197 2728 65% 1421 34% 25 1%
28 Poll 2429 452 19% 452 271 60% 173 38% 7 2%
28 Paper 2429 8 0% 8 2 25% 5 63% 0 0%
28 Mail 2429 222 9% 221 160 72% 61 28% 0 0%
28 Early 2429 1201 49% 1199 671 56% 516 43% 8 1%
28 Total 2429 1883 78% 1880 1104 59% 755 40% 15 1%
29 Poll 4700 1360 29% 1356 1087 80% 248 18% 14 1%
29 Paper 4700 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
29 Mail 4700 28 1% 28 23 82% 5 18% 0 0%
29 Early 4700 2110 45% 2100 1604 76% 485 23% 8 0%
29 Total 4700 3498 74% 3484 2714 78% 738 21% 22 1%
30 Poll 4072 731 18% 730 519 71% 198 27% 8 1%
30 Paper 4072 3 0% 3 2 67% 1 33% 0 0%
30 Mail 4072 70 2% 67 53 79% 13 19% 1 1%
30 Early 4072 1997 49% 1992 1290 65% 680 34% 14 1%
30 Total 4072 2801 69% 2792 1864 67% 892 32% 23 1%
31 Poll 2086 338 16% 335 216 64% 112 33% 6 2%
31 Paper 2086 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
31 Mail 2086 11 1% 11 7 64% 4 36% 0 0%
31 Early 2086 1205 58% 1200 805 67% 386 32% 6 1%
31 Total 2086 1554 74% 1546 1028 66% 502 32% 12 1%
32 Poll 2475 463 19% 462 283 61% 166 36% 10 2%
32 Paper 2475 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
32 Mail 2475 29 1% 29 25 86% 4 14% 0 0%
32 Early 2475 1269 51% 1265 754 60% 497 39% 11 1%
32 Total 2475 1761 71% 1756 1062 60% 667 38% 21 1%
33 Poll 2156 525 24% 522 378 72% 130 25% 10 2%
33 Paper 2156 2 0% 2 0 0% 2 100% 0 0%
33 Mail 2156 92 4% 92 75 82% 16 17% 1 1%
33 Early 2156 941 44% 937 698 74% 225 24% 9 1%
33 Total 2156 1560 72% 1553 1151 74% 373 24% 20 1%
34 Poll 3435 521 15% 519 279 54% 233 45% 5 1%
34 Paper 3435 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
34 Mail 3435 26 1% 26 11 42% 15 58% 0 0%
34 Early 3435 1854 54% 1848 1028 56% 803 43% 9 0%
34 Total 3435 2401 70% 2393 1318 55% 1051 44% 14 1%
35 Poll 2787 764 27% 753 556 74% 181 24% 15 2%
35 Paper 2787 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
35 Mail 2787 15 1% 15 15 100% 0 0% 0 0%
35 Early 2787 896 32% 888 665 75% 218 25% 3 0%
35 Total 2787 1675 60% 1656 1236 75% 399 24% 18 1%
36 Poll 2005 293 15% 292 217 74% 73 25% 0 0%
36 Paper 2005 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
36 Mail 2005 15 1% 15 10 67% 5 33% 0 0%
36 Early 2005 1113 56% 1109 777 70% 322 29% 7 1%
36 Total 2005 1421 71% 1416 1004 71% 400 28% 7 0%
37 Poll 2062 716 35% 709 553 78% 144 20% 8 1%
37 Paper 2062 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
37 Mail 2062 10 0% 10 6 60% 3 30% 1 10%
37 Early 2062 540 26% 538 411 76% 123 23% 3 1%
37 Total 2062 1266 61% 1257 970 77% 270 21% 12 1%
38 Poll 3372 812 24% 810 522 64% 280 35% 5 1%
38 Paper 3372 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
38 Mail 3372 25 1% 25 21 84% 4 16% 0 0%
38 Early 3372 1719 51% 1716 964 56% 739 43% 10 1%
38 Total 3372 2556 76% 2551 1507 59% 1023 40% 15 1%
39 Poll 2813 540 19% 536 306 57% 200 37% 19 4%
39 Paper 2813 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
39 Mail 2813 23 1% 23 16 70% 5 22% 1 4%
39 Early 2813 1205 43% 1198 608 51% 574 48% 12 1%
39 Total 2813 1768 63% 1757 930 53% 779 44% 32 2%
40 Poll 3257 413 13% 412 290 70% 115 28% 5 1%
40 Paper 3257 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
40 Mail 3257 28 1% 28 23 82% 5 18% 0 0%
40 Early 3257 1779 55% 1778 1245 70% 520 29% 9 1%
40 Total 3257 2220 68% 2218 1558 70% 640 29% 14 1%
41 Poll 1841 449 24% 447 358 80% 79 18% 5 1%
41 Paper 1841 5 0% 5 3 60% 1 20% 0 0%
41 Mail 1841 126 7% 126 93 74% 31 25% 0 0%
41 Early 1841 925 50% 922 746 81% 166 18% 5 1%
41 Total 1841 1505 82% 1500 1200 80% 277 18% 10 1%
42 Poll 634 242 38% 242 179 74% 59 24% 3 1%
42 Paper 634 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
42 Mail 634 3 0% 3 1 33% 2 67% 0 0%
42 Early 634 163 26% 162 106 65% 53 33% 3 2%
42 Total 634 408 64% 407 286 70% 114 28% 6 1%
43 Poll 4097 705 17% 704 442 63% 251 36% 5 1%
43 Paper 4097 12 0% 12 4 33% 8 67% 0 0%
43 Mail 4097 76 2% 75 40 53% 32 43% 0 0%
43 Early 4097 1913 47% 1901 1005 53% 872 46% 17 1%
43 Total 4097 2706 66% 2692 1491 55% 1163 43% 22 1%
44 Poll 1894 246 13% 244 143 59% 93 38% 7 3%
44 Paper 1894 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
44 Mail 1894 11 1% 11 7 64% 3 27% 0 0%
44 Early 1894 763 40% 756 422 56% 325 43% 9 1%
44 Total 1894 1020 54% 1011 572 57% 421 42% 16 2%
45 Poll 4731 699 15% 699 553 79% 136 19% 7 1%
45 Paper 4731 3 0% 3 1 33% 2 67% 0 0%
45 Mail 4731 397 8% 396 322 81% 72 18% 0 0%
45 Early 4731 2870 61% 2854 2137 75% 692 24% 16 1%
45 Total 4731 3969 84% 3952 3013 76% 902 23% 23 1%
46 Poll 2645 332 13% 327 159 49% 159 49% 6 2%
46 Paper 2645 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
46 Mail 2645 20 1% 20 12 60% 8 40% 0 0%
46 Early 2645 1100 42% 1097 501 46% 574 52% 13 1%
46 Total 2645 1452 55% 1444 672 47% 741 51% 19 1%
47 Poll 2534 388 15% 385 218 57% 158 41% 3 1%
47 Paper 2534 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
47 Mail 2534 18 1% 18 16 89% 2 11% 0 0%
47 Early 2534 1263 50% 1261 725 57% 517 41% 13 1%
47 Total 2534 1669 66% 1664 959 58% 677 41% 16 1%
48 Poll 3065 700 23% 696 435 63% 249 36% 5 1%
48 Paper 3065 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
48 Mail 3065 29 1% 29 21 72% 7 24% 0 0%
48 Early 3065 1363 44% 1360 805 59% 540 40% 9 1%
48 Total 3065 2092 68% 2085 1261 60% 796 38% 14 1%
49 Poll 2028 318 16% 317 217 68% 94 30% 5 2%
49 Paper 2028 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
49 Mail 2028 31 2% 31 27 87% 4 13% 0 0%
49 Early 2028 1087 54% 1079 717 66% 351 33% 11 1%
49 Total 2028 1436 71% 1427 961 67% 449 31% 16 1%
50 Poll 2277 299 13% 296 132 45% 158 53% 5 2%
50 Paper 2277 1 0% 1 0 0% 1 100% 0 0%
50 Mail 2277 7 0% 7 4 57% 3 43% 0 0%
50 Early 2277 916 40% 910 371 41% 530 58% 4 0%
50 Total 2277 1223 54% 1214 507 42% 692 57% 9 1%
51 Poll 1394 185 13% 184 114 62% 65 35% 3 2%
51 Paper 1394 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
51 Mail 1394 6 0% 6 3 50% 3 50% 0 0%
51 Early 1394 603 43% 600 250 42% 344 57% 1 0%
51 Total 1394 794 57% 790 367 46% 412 52% 4 1%
52 Poll 2955 512 17% 509 259 51% 238 47% 5 1%
52 Paper 2955 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
52 Mail 2955 16 1% 16 14 88% 2 13% 0 0%
52 Early 2955 1293 44% 1287 541 42% 732 57% 8 1%
52 Total 2955 1821 62% 1812 814 45% 972 54% 13 1%
53 Poll 2164 384 18% 382 245 64% 130 34% 5 1%
53 Paper 2164 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
53 Mail 2164 35 2% 35 31 89% 3 9% 0 0%
53 Early 2164 1171 54% 1166 772 66% 383 33% 4 0%
53 Total 2164 1590 73% 1583 1048 66% 516 33% 9 1%
54 Poll 2840 464 16% 462 230 50% 219 47% 9 2%
54 Paper 2840 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
54 Mail 2840 29 1% 28 21 75% 7 25% 0 0%
54 Early 2840 1192 42% 1184 517 44% 651 55% 8 1%
54 Total 2840 1685 59% 1674 768 46% 877 52% 17 1%
55 Poll 2540 473 19% 471 262 56% 195 41% 9 2%
55 Paper 2540 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
55 Mail 2540 75 3% 75 60 80% 14 19% 0 0%
55 Early 2540 1043 41% 1038 600 58% 428 41% 6 1%
55 Total 2540 1591 63% 1584 922 58% 637 40% 15 1%
56 Poll 5425 838 15% 831 601 72% 209 25% 11 1%
56 Paper 5425 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
56 Mail 5425 20 0% 20 15 75% 5 25% 0 0%
56 Early 5425 2866 53% 2842 1897 67% 920 32% 15 1%
56 Total 5425 3724 69% 3693 2513 68% 1134 31% 26 1%
57 Poll 3960 732 18% 729 462 63% 259 36% 5 1%
57 Paper 3960 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
57 Mail 3960 27 1% 27 17 63% 10 37% 0 0%
57 Early 3960 1811 46% 1797 1079 60% 704 39% 6 0%
57 Total 3960 2570 65% 2553 1558 61% 973 38% 11 0%
58 Poll 3285 582 18% 579 343 59% 222 38% 9 2%
58 Paper 3285 2 0% 2 1 50% 1 50% 0 0%
58 Mail 3285 21 1% 21 14 67% 7 33% 0 0%
58 Early 3285 1591 48% 1588 828 52% 740 47% 18 1%
58 Total 3285 2196 67% 2190 1186 54% 970 44% 27 1%
59 Poll 3418 552 16% 550 384 70% 158 29% 3 1%
59 Paper 3418 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
59 Mail 3418 25 1% 25 16 64% 8 32% 1 4%
59 Early 3418 1793 52% 1792 1098 61% 677 38% 11 1%
59 Total 3418 2370 69% 2367 1498 63% 843 36% 15 1%
60 Poll 1554 246 16% 244 193 79% 49 20% 2 1%
60 Paper 1554 1 0% 1 0 0% 1 100% 0 0%
60 Mail 1554 31 2% 30 22 73% 8 27% 0 0%
60 Early 1554 889 57% 887 666 75% 216 24% 5 1%
60 Total 1554 1167 75% 1162 881 76% 274 24% 7 1%
61 Poll 1631 250 15% 248 171 69% 75 30% 1 0%
61 Paper 1631 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
61 Mail 1631 22 1% 22 17 77% 5 23% 0 0%
61 Early 1631 861 53% 856 559 65% 288 34% 7 1%
61 Total 1631 1133 69% 1126 747 66% 368 33% 8 1%
62 Poll 2584 516 20% 514 298 58% 205 40% 7 1%
62 Paper 2584 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
62 Mail 2584 23 1% 23 19 83% 4 17% 0 0%
62 Early 2584 1186 46% 1179 657 56% 509 43% 8 1%
62 Total 2584 1725 67% 1716 974 57% 718 42% 15 1%
63 Poll 2080 320 15% 320 204 64% 109 34% 5 2%
63 Paper 2080 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
63 Mail 2080 17 1% 17 13 76% 3 18% 1 6%
63 Early 2080 1177 57% 1174 777 66% 387 33% 4 0%
63 Total 2080 1514 73% 1511 994 66% 499 33% 10 1%
64 Poll 2842 488 17% 485 275 57% 204 42% 6 1%
64 Paper 2842 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
64 Mail 2842 29 1% 28 16 57% 12 43% 0 0%
64 Early 2842 1341 47% 1337 767 57% 559 42% 7 1%
64 Total 2842 1858 65% 1850 1058 57% 775 42% 13 1%
65 Poll 1231 233 19% 233 143 61% 84 36% 4 2%
65 Paper 1231 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
65 Mail 1231 14 1% 14 10 71% 4 29% 0 0%
65 Early 1231 617 50% 614 386 63% 225 37% 2 0%
65 Total 1231 864 70% 861 539 63% 313 36% 6 1%
66 Poll 2078 355 17% 352 219 62% 126 36% 5 1%
66 Paper 2078 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
66 Mail 2078 26 1% 25 24 96% 1 4% 0 0%
66 Early 2078 946 46% 943 514 55% 419 44% 6 1%
66 Total 2078 1327 64% 1320 757 57% 546 41% 11 1%
67 Poll 1672 241 14% 241 158 66% 78 32% 2 1%
67 Paper 1672 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
67 Mail 1672 25 1% 25 19 76% 6 24% 0 0%
67 Early 1672 916 55% 915 599 65% 310 34% 2 0%
67 Total 1672 1182 71% 1181 776 66% 394 33% 4 0%
68 Poll 2003 251 13% 248 137 55% 103 42% 5 2%
68 Paper 2003 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
68 Mail 2003 18 1% 18 13 72% 5 28% 0 0%
68 Early 2003 1007 50% 1001 600 60% 385 38% 7 1%
68 Total 2003 1276 64% 1267 750 59% 493 39% 12 1%
69 Poll 3779 435 12% 434 281 65% 146 34% 4 1%
69 Paper 3779 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
69 Mail 3779 26 1% 25 12 48% 11 44% 2 8%
69 Early 3779 2086 55% 2080 1269 61% 796 38% 9 0%
69 Total 3779 2547 67% 2539 1562 62% 953 38% 15 1%
70 Poll 1807 263 15% 259 169 65% 88 34% 2 1%
70 Paper 1807 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
70 Mail 1807 28 2% 28 20 71% 6 21% 2 7%
70 Early 1807 982 54% 976 635 65% 331 34% 6 1%
70 Total 1807 1273 70% 1263 824 65% 425 34% 10 1%
71 Poll 1686 239 14% 239 158 66% 73 31% 7 3%
71 Paper 1686 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
71 Mail 1686 13 1% 12 7 58% 5 42% 0 0%
71 Early 1686 914 54% 912 555 61% 346 38% 8 1%
71 Total 1686 1166 69% 1163 720 62% 424 36% 15 1%
72 Poll 1525 241 16% 238 152 64% 80 34% 5 2%
72 Paper 1525 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
72 Mail 1525 13 1% 13 11 85% 1 8% 0 0%
72 Early 1525 765 50% 759 465 61% 289 38% 3 0%
72 Total 1525 1019 67% 1010 628 62% 370 37% 8 1%
73 Poll 1712 246 14% 245 123 50% 116 47% 5 2%
73 Paper 1712 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
73 Mail 1712 3 0% 3 2 67% 1 33% 0 0%
73 Early 1712 761 44% 760 311 41% 445 59% 4 1%
73 Total 1712 1010 59% 1008 436 43% 562 56% 9 1%
74 Poll 1727 227 13% 225 122 54% 94 42% 5 2%
74 Paper 1727 7 0% 7 3 43% 4 57% 0 0%
74 Mail 1727 79 5% 79 43 54% 31 39% 2 3%
74 Early 1727 892 52% 891 508 57% 379 43% 2 0%
74 Total 1727 1205 70% 1202 676 56% 508 42% 9 1%
75 Poll 1862 274 15% 274 187 68% 82 30% 2 1%
75 Paper 1862 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
75 Mail 1862 41 2% 41 27 66% 14 34% 0 0%
75 Early 1862 920 49% 914 656 72% 254 28% 3 0%
75 Total 1862 1235 66% 1229 870 71% 350 28% 5 0%
76 Poll 3131 424 14% 424 275 65% 146 34% 3 1%
76 Paper 3131 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
76 Mail 3131 26 1% 25 19 76% 6 24% 0 0%
76 Early 3131 1741 56% 1738 1104 64% 622 36% 7 0%
76 Total 3131 2191 70% 2187 1398 64% 774 35% 10 0%
77 Poll 3495 555 16% 552 340 62% 198 36% 8 1%
77 Paper 3495 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
77 Mail 3495 19 1% 19 8 42% 11 58% 0 0%
77 Early 3495 1726 49% 1721 864 50% 842 49% 10 1%
77 Total 3495 2300 66% 2292 1212 53% 1051 46% 18 1%
78 Poll 1794 342 19% 338 244 72% 85 25% 5 1%
78 Paper 1794 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
78 Mail 1794 19 1% 19 12 63% 7 37% 0 0%
78 Early 1794 876 49% 873 531 61% 333 38% 3 0%
78 Total 1794 1237 69% 1230 787 64% 425 35% 8 1%
79 Poll 2729 397 15% 397 233 59% 155 39% 4 1%
79 Paper 2729 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
79 Mail 2729 23 1% 23 19 83% 4 17% 0 0%
79 Early 2729 1200 44% 1193 640 54% 543 46% 7 1%
79 Total 2729 1620 59% 1613 892 55% 702 44% 11 1%
80 Poll 3336 508 15% 505 310 61% 185 37% 6 1%
80 Paper 3336 9 0% 8 2 25% 6 75% 0 0%
80 Mail 3336 130 4% 129 92 71% 37 29% 0 0%
80 Early 3336 1803 54% 1797 1040 58% 732 41% 16 1%
80 Total 3336 2450 73% 2439 1444 59% 960 39% 22 1%
81 Poll 2709 421 16% 420 236 56% 169 40% 6 1%
81 Paper 2709 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
81 Mail 2709 22 1% 22 12 55% 9 41% 1 5%
81 Early 2709 1341 50% 1336 705 53% 620 46% 8 1%
81 Total 2709 1784 66% 1778 953 54% 798 45% 15 1%
82 Poll 2637 412 16% 412 237 58% 169 41% 3 1%
82 Paper 2637 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
82 Mail 2637 21 1% 21 17 81% 4 19% 0 0%
82 Early 2637 1205 46% 1200 696 58% 489 41% 10 1%
82 Total 2637 1638 62% 1633 950 58% 662 41% 13 1%
83 Poll 4052 527 13% 527 370 70% 148 28% 5 1%
83 Paper 4052 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
83 Mail 4052 19 0% 19 13 68% 5 26% 1 5%
83 Early 4052 2154 53% 2142 1502 70% 620 29% 9 0%
83 Total 4052 2700 67% 2688 1885 70% 773 29% 15 1%
84 Poll 2263 455 20% 454 318 70% 129 28% 3 1%
84 Paper 2263 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
84 Mail 2263 17 1% 17 14 82% 3 18% 0 0%
84 Early 2263 1074 47% 1071 630 59% 435 41% 6 1%
84 Total 2263 1546 68% 1542 962 62% 567 37% 9 1%
85 Poll 3061 544 18% 541 321 59% 210 39% 4 1%
85 Paper 3061 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
85 Mail 3061 16 1% 16 9 56% 7 44% 0 0%
85 Early 3061 1442 47% 1437 741 52% 683 48% 9 1%
85 Total 3061 2002 65% 1994 1071 54% 900 45% 13 1%
86 Poll 2689 378 14% 377 242 64% 131 35% 3 1%
86 Paper 2689 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
86 Mail 2689 23 1% 22 14 64% 6 27% 1 5%
86 Early 2689 1452 54% 1451 929 64% 510 35% 6 0%
86 Total 2689 1853 69% 1850 1185 64% 647 35% 10 1%
87 Poll 2315 480 21% 480 328 68% 151 31% 1 0%
87 Paper 2315 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
87 Mail 2315 12 1% 12 6 50% 6 50% 0 0%
87 Early 2315 1224 53% 1223 785 64% 426 35% 9 1%
87 Total 2315 1716 74% 1715 1119 65% 583 34% 10 1%
88 Poll 2001 312 16% 312 134 43% 170 54% 7 2%
88 Paper 2001 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
88 Mail 2001 13 1% 13 7 54% 6 46% 0 0%
88 Early 2001 797 40% 796 243 31% 547 69% 3 0%
88 Total 2001 1122 56% 1121 384 34% 723 65% 10 1%
89 Poll 4530 748 17% 745 448 60% 287 39% 8 1%
89 Paper 4530 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
89 Mail 4530 34 1% 34 20 59% 14 41% 0 0%
89 Early 4530 2210 49% 2205 1224 56% 964 44% 14 1%
89 Total 4530 2992 66% 2984 1692 57% 1265 42% 22 1%
90 Poll 2732 384 14% 383 301 79% 77 20% 5 1%
90 Paper 2732 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
90 Mail 2732 30 1% 30 11 37% 19 63% 0 0%
90 Early 2732 1535 56% 1530 1130 74% 385 25% 10 1%
90 Total 2732 1949 71% 1943 1442 74% 481 25% 15 1%
91 Poll 2252 425 19% 424 281 66% 136 32% 3 1%
91 Paper 2252 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
91 Mail 2252 15 1% 15 10 67% 5 33% 0 0%
91 Early 2252 1095 49% 1094 636 58% 440 40% 12 1%
91 Total 2252 1535 68% 1533 927 60% 581 38% 15 1%
92 Poll 2358 381 16% 379 212 56% 159 42% 5 1%
92 Paper 2358 95 4% 94 72 77% 22 23% 0 0%
92 Mail 2358 346 15% 344 227 66% 111 32% 1 0%
92 Early 2358 975 41% 969 579 60% 384 40% 5 1%
92 Total 2358 1797 76% 1786 1090 61% 676 38% 11 1%
93 Poll 277 111 40% 111 91 82% 18 16% 0 0%
93 Paper 277 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
93 Mail 277 1 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 0 0%
93 Early 277 59 21% 59 48 81% 11 19% 0 0%
93 Total 277 171 62% 171 140 82% 29 17% 0 0%
94 Poll 3224 703 22% 700 414 59% 281 40% 5 1%
94 Paper 3224 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
94 Mail 3224 24 1% 24 9 38% 12 50% 1 4%
94 Early 3224 1619 50% 1618 927 57% 683 42% 7 0%
94 Total 3224 2346 73% 2342 1350 58% 976 42% 13 1%
95 Poll 2696 394 15% 391 246 63% 135 35% 4 1%
95 Paper 2696 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
95 Mail 2696 17 1% 17 8 47% 9 53% 0 0%
95 Early 2696 1500 56% 1499 836 56% 646 43% 10 1%
95 Total 2696 1911 71% 1907 1090 57% 790 41% 14 1%
96 Poll 1001 102 10% 102 53 52% 48 47% 1 1%
96 Paper 1001 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
96 Mail 1001 5 0% 5 4 80% 1 20% 0 0%
96 Early 1001 366 37% 362 155 43% 205 57% 1 0%
96 Total 1001 473 47% 469 212 45% 254 54% 2 0%
97 Poll 1262 242 19% 241 178 74% 57 24% 4 2%
97 Paper 1262 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
97 Mail 1262 15 1% 15 14 93% 0 0% 1 7%
97 Early 1262 713 56% 712 549 77% 157 22% 5 1%
97 Total 1262 970 77% 968 741 77% 214 22% 10 1%
98 Poll 824 175 21% 169 111 66% 56 33% 2 1%
98 Paper 824 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
98 Mail 824 26 3% 26 17 65% 9 35% 0 0%
98 Early 824 205 25% 204 104 51% 98 48% 1 0%
98 Total 824 406 49% 399 232 58% 163 41% 3 1%
99 Poll 712 77 11% 76 45 59% 30 39% 1 1%
99 Paper 712 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
99 Mail 712 5 1% 5 3 60% 2 40% 0 0%
99 Early 712 298 42% 296 152 51% 142 48% 0 0%
99 Total 712 380 53% 377 200 53% 174 46% 1 0%
100 Poll 24 3 13% 3 3 100% 0 0% 0 0%
100 Paper 24 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
100 Mail 24 2 8% 2 1 50% 1 50% 0 0%
100 Early 24 15 63% 15 14 93% 1 7% 0 0%
100 Total 24 20 83% 20 18 90% 2 10% 0 0%
101 Poll 2741 487 18% 486 349 72% 133 27% 3 1%
101 Paper 2741 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
101 Mail 2741 16 1% 16 11 69% 4 25% 1 6%
101 Early 2741 1480 54% 1475 949 64% 519 35% 3 0%
101 Total 2741 1983 72% 1977 1309 66% 656 33% 7 0%
102 Poll 2350 550 23% 547 403 74% 138 25% 4 1%
102 Paper 2350 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
102 Mail 2350 19 1% 19 13 68% 6 32% 0 0%
102 Early 2350 1190 51% 1188 904 76% 276 23% 7 1%
102 Total 2350 1759 75% 1754 1320 75% 420 24% 11 1%
103 Poll 1302 210 16% 206 107 52% 93 45% 3 1%
103 Paper 1302 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
103 Mail 1302 9 1% 9 8 89% 1 11% 0 0%
103 Early 1302 548 42% 545 272 50% 270 50% 3 1%
103 Total 1302 767 59% 760 387 51% 364 48% 6 1%
104 Poll 2689 444 17% 442 210 48% 222 50% 6 1%
104 Paper 2689 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
104 Mail 2689 15 1% 15 5 33% 10 67% 0 0%
104 Early 2689 964 36% 962 313 33% 639 66% 7 1%
104 Total 2689 1423 53% 1419 528 37% 871 61% 13 1%
105 Poll 1057 171 16% 171 111 65% 55 32% 3 2%
105 Paper 1057 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
105 Mail 1057 9 1% 9 8 89% 1 11% 0 0%
105 Early 1057 516 49% 515 315 61% 196 38% 2 0%
105 Total 1057 696 66% 695 434 62% 252 36% 5 1%
106 Poll 1867 318 17% 317 186 59% 125 39% 4 1%
106 Paper 1867 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
106 Mail 1867 4 0% 4 3 75% 1 25% 0 0%
106 Early 1867 937 50% 936 556 59% 364 39% 6 1%
106 Total 1867 1259 67% 1257 745 59% 490 39% 10 1%
107 Poll 3131 597 19% 592 388 66% 198 33% 5 1%
107 Paper 3131 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
107 Mail 3131 31 1% 31 29 94% 2 6% 0 0%
107 Early 3131 1604 51% 1599 921 58% 663 41% 11 1%
107 Total 3131 2232 71% 2222 1338 60% 863 39% 16 1%
108 Poll 2695 396 15% 395 237 60% 153 39% 4 1%
108 Paper 2695 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
108 Mail 2695 19 1% 19 13 68% 5 26% 0 0%
108 Early 2695 1371 51% 1365 743 54% 610 45% 5 0%
108 Total 2695 1786 66% 1779 993 56% 768 43% 9 1%
109 Poll 2887 397 14% 396 237 60% 151 38% 7 2%
109 Paper 2887 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
109 Mail 2887 13 0% 13 9 69% 4 31% 0 0%
109 Early 2887 1690 59% 1685 1121 67% 553 33% 5 0%
109 Total 2887 2100 73% 2094 1367 65% 708 34% 12 1%
110 Poll 2606 450 17% 447 298 67% 137 31% 8 2%
110 Paper 2606 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
110 Mail 2606 29 1% 28 25 89% 2 7% 0 0%
110 Early 2606 1299 50% 1288 798 62% 479 37% 9 1%
110 Total 2606 1778 68% 1763 1121 64% 618 35% 17 1%
111 Poll 5628 873 16% 872 597 68% 264 30% 7 1%
111 Paper 5628 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
111 Mail 5628 49 1% 49 35 71% 14 29% 0 0%
111 Early 5628 2831 50% 2827 1942 69% 868 31% 12 0%
111 Total 5628 3753 67% 3748 2574 69% 1146 31% 19 1%
112 Poll 2313 327 14% 326 193 59% 128 39% 3 1%
112 Paper 2313 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
112 Mail 2313 24 1% 24 17 71% 7 29% 0 0%
112 Early 2313 1296 56% 1295 813 63% 474 37% 2 0%
112 Total 2313 1647 71% 1645 1023 62% 609 37% 5 0%
113 Poll 2659 433 16% 432 261 60% 166 38% 3 1%
113 Paper 2659 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
113 Mail 2659 11 0% 11 8 73% 2 18% 1 9%
113 Early 2659 1243 47% 1242 775 62% 449 36% 7 1%
113 Total 2659 1687 63% 1685 1044 62% 617 37% 11 1%
114 Poll 2240 471 21% 469 352 75% 110 23% 5 1%
114 Paper 2240 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
114 Mail 2240 12 1% 12 9 75% 2 17% 0 0%
114 Early 2240 815 36% 806 604 75% 192 24% 5 1%
114 Total 2240 1298 58% 1287 965 75% 304 24% 10 1%
115 Poll 2716 383 14% 380 225 59% 150 39% 4 1%
115 Paper 2716 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
115 Mail 2716 11 0% 11 10 91% 1 9% 0 0%
115 Early 2716 1423 52% 1421 799 56% 608 43% 11 1%
115 Total 2716 1817 67% 1812 1034 57% 759 42% 15 1%
116 Poll 5748 829 14% 828 496 60% 310 37% 12 1%
116 Paper 5748 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
116 Mail 5748 30 1% 30 14 47% 14 47% 1 3%
116 Early 5748 2884 50% 2879 1764 61% 1102 38% 8 0%
116 Total 5748 3743 65% 3737 2274 61% 1426 38% 21 1%
117 Poll 3553 526 15% 523 343 66% 176 34% 3 1%
117 Paper 3553 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
117 Mail 3553 15 0% 15 10 67% 5 33% 0 0%
117 Early 3553 1750 49% 1749 1013 58% 722 41% 12 1%
117 Total 3553 2291 64% 2287 1366 60% 903 39% 15 1%
118 Poll 3986 579 15% 578 398 69% 173 30% 4 1%
118 Paper 3986 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
118 Mail 3986 12 0% 12 9 75% 3 25% 0 0%
118 Early 3986 2091 52% 2088 1460 70% 613 29% 12 1%
118 Total 3986 2682 67% 2678 1867 70% 789 29% 16 1%
119 Poll 4797 788 16% 785 539 69% 242 31% 3 0%
119 Paper 4797 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
119 Mail 4797 28 1% 28 20 71% 8 29% 0 0%
119 Early 4797 2541 53% 2537 1567 62% 955 38% 7 0%
119 Total 4797 3357 70% 3350 2126 63% 1205 36% 10 0%
120 Poll 4482 774 17% 772 537 70% 221 29% 10 1%
120 Paper 4482 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
120 Mail 4482 22 0% 22 11 50% 11 50% 0 0%
120 Early 4482 2459 55% 2455 1559 64% 880 36% 10 0%
120 Total 4482 3255 73% 3249 2107 65% 1112 34% 20 1%
121 Poll 3234 545 17% 544 313 58% 227 42% 3 1%
121 Paper 3234 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
121 Mail 3234 21 1% 21 9 43% 12 57% 0 0%
121 Early 3234 1735 54% 1733 920 53% 798 46% 12 1%
121 Total 3234 2301 71% 2298 1242 54% 1037 45% 15 1%
122 Poll 3545 710 20% 709 536 76% 160 23% 8 1%
122 Paper 3545 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
122 Mail 3545 38 1% 38 30 79% 8 21% 0 0%
122 Early 3545 1863 53% 1860 1335 72% 510 27% 10 1%
122 Total 3545 2611 74% 2607 1901 73% 678 26% 18 1%
123 Poll 2087 296 14% 296 176 59% 109 37% 8 3%
123 Paper 2087 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
123 Mail 2087 10 0% 10 7 70% 3 30% 0 0%
123 Early 2087 1119 54% 1116 692 62% 413 37% 11 1%
123 Total 2087 1425 68% 1422 875 62% 525 37% 19 1%
124 Poll 2831 401 14% 395 225 57% 161 41% 4 1%
124 Paper 2831 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
124 Mail 2831 11 0% 11 7 64% 4 36% 0 0%
124 Early 2831 1358 48% 1352 696 51% 645 48% 9 1%
124 Total 2831 1770 63% 1758 928 53% 810 46% 13 1%
125 Poll 3795 710 19% 705 413 59% 282 40% 7 1%
125 Paper 3795 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
125 Mail 3795 28 1% 28 20 71% 8 29% 0 0%
125 Early 3795 1927 51% 1923 1003 52% 910 47% 8 0%
125 Total 3795 2665 70% 2656 1436 54% 1200 45% 15 1%
126 Poll 5722 1217 21% 1216 830 68% 360 30% 13 1%
126 Paper 5722 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
126 Mail 5722 32 1% 32 26 81% 5 16% 1 3%
126 Early 5722 2816 49% 2805 1598 57% 1168 42% 20 1%
126 Total 5722 4065 71% 4053 2454 61% 1533 38% 34 1%
127 Poll 3105 552 18% 551 376 68% 166 30% 6 1%
127 Paper 3105 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
127 Mail 3105 22 1% 21 16 76% 5 24% 0 0%
127 Early 3105 1619 52% 1614 911 56% 677 42% 13 1%
127 Total 3105 2193 71% 2186 1303 60% 848 39% 19 1%
128 Poll 3163 576 18% 576 447 78% 123 21% 5 1%
128 Paper 3163 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
128 Mail 3163 19 1% 19 17 89% 2 11% 0 0%
128 Early 3163 1713 54% 1711 1294 76% 404 24% 5 0%
128 Total 3163 2308 73% 2306 1758 76% 529 23% 10 0%
129 Poll 2085 384 18% 384 266 69% 112 29% 4 1%
129 Paper 2085 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
129 Mail 2085 17 1% 17 15 88% 2 12% 0 0%
129 Early 2085 1070 51% 1069 695 65% 369 35% 3 0%
129 Total 2085 1471 71% 1470 976 66% 483 33% 7 0%
130 Poll 4176 699 17% 698 459 66% 230 33% 4 1%
130 Paper 4176 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
130 Mail 4176 28 1% 27 20 74% 7 26% 0 0%
130 Early 4176 2370 57% 2367 1405 59% 937 40% 17 1%
130 Total 4176 3097 74% 3092 1884 61% 1174 38% 21 1%
131 Poll 4489 905 20% 897 668 74% 216 24% 9 1%
131 Paper 4489 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
131 Mail 4489 24 1% 24 20 83% 4 17% 0 0%
131 Early 4489 2321 52% 2312 1616 70% 675 29% 15 1%
131 Total 4489 3250 72% 3233 2304 71% 895 28% 24 1%
132 Poll 2708 515 19% 511 315 62% 189 37% 6 1%
132 Paper 2708 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
132 Mail 2708 11 0% 11 5 45% 6 55% 0 0%
132 Early 2708 1317 49% 1312 714 54% 588 45% 7 1%
132 Total 2708 1843 68% 1834 1034 56% 783 43% 13 1%
133 Poll 1901 275 14% 274 190 69% 81 30% 1 0%
133 Paper 1901 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
133 Mail 1901 10 1% 10 10 100% 0 0% 0 0%
133 Early 1901 968 51% 964 586 61% 367 38% 6 1%
133 Total 1901 1253 66% 1248 786 63% 448 36% 7 1%
134 Poll 9030 1773 20% 1766 1116 63% 623 35% 15 1%
134 Paper 9030 10 0% 10 3 30% 3 30% 0 0%
134 Mail 9030 156 2% 156 101 65% 54 35% 1 1%
134 Early 9030 4944 55% 4929 2635 53% 2265 46% 23 0%
134 Total 9030 6883 76% 6861 3855 56% 2945 43% 39 1%
135 Poll 2932 543 19% 541 333 62% 198 37% 7 1%
135 Paper 2932 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
135 Mail 2932 15 1% 15 13 87% 1 7% 1 7%
135 Early 2932 1539 52% 1534 836 55% 675 44% 10 1%
135 Total 2932 2097 72% 2090 1182 57% 874 42% 18 1%
136 Poll 1890 251 13% 250 138 55% 106 42% 2 1%
136 Paper 1890 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
136 Mail 1890 16 1% 16 9 56% 7 44% 0 0%
136 Early 1890 1027 54% 1023 612 60% 399 39% 9 1%
136 Total 1890 1294 68% 1289 759 59% 512 40% 11 1%
137 Poll 1845 289 16% 288 192 67% 93 32% 2 1%
137 Paper 1845 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
137 Mail 1845 17 1% 17 9 53% 8 47% 0 0%
137 Early 1845 941 51% 933 615 66% 309 33% 7 1%
137 Total 1845 1247 68% 1238 816 66% 410 33% 9 1%
138 Poll 1225 203 17% 202 137 68% 61 30% 4 2%
138 Paper 1225 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
138 Mail 1225 8 1% 8 5 63% 2 25% 1 13%
138 Early 1225 714 58% 714 502 70% 200 28% 8 1%
138 Total 1225 925 76% 924 644 70% 263 28% 13 1%
139 Poll 3526 690 20% 689 435 63% 249 36% 2 0%
139 Paper 3526 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
139 Mail 3526 38 1% 38 22 58% 16 42% 0 0%
139 Early 3526 1688 48% 1687 944 56% 728 43% 7 0%
139 Total 3526 2416 69% 2414 1401 58% 993 41% 9 0%
140 Poll 7200 1425 20% 1424 1077 76% 335 24% 6 0%
140 Paper 7200 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
140 Mail 7200 54 1% 54 46 85% 8 15% 0 0%
140 Early 7200 3746 52% 3739 2574 69% 1135 30% 21 1%
140 Total 7200 5225 73% 5217 3697 71% 1478 28% 27 1%
141 Poll 2538 444 17% 441 302 68% 125 28% 6 1%
141 Paper 2538 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
141 Mail 2538 29 1% 29 20 69% 6 21% 0 0%
141 Early 2538 1353 53% 1349 795 59% 541 40% 8 1%
141 Total 2538 1826 72% 1819 1117 61% 672 37% 14 1%
142 Poll 2712 358 13% 354 208 59% 133 38% 6 2%
142 Paper 2712 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
142 Mail 2712 24 1% 23 7 30% 15 65% 1 4%
142 Early 2712 1439 53% 1434 767 53% 654 46% 10 1%
142 Total 2712 1821 67% 1811 982 54% 802 44% 17 1%
143 Poll 1733 260 15% 259 195 75% 64 25% 0 0%
143 Paper 1733 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
143 Mail 1733 18 1% 18 12 67% 6 33% 0 0%
143 Early 1733 919 53% 916 653 71% 257 28% 3 0%
143 Total 1733 1197 69% 1193 860 72% 327 27% 3 0%
144 Poll 2358 252 11% 250 158 63% 85 34% 5 2%
144 Paper 2358 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
144 Mail 2358 21 1% 20 11 55% 9 45% 0 0%
144 Early 2358 1463 62% 1454 922 63% 517 36% 8 1%
144 Total 2358 1736 74% 1724 1091 63% 611 35% 13 1%
145 Poll 1197 228 19% 228 127 56% 93 41% 6 3%
145 Paper 1197 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
145 Mail 1197 7 1% 7 5 71% 2 29% 0 0%
145 Early 1197 687 57% 687 371 54% 308 45% 5 1%
145 Total 1197 922 77% 922 503 55% 403 44% 11 1%
146 Poll 3903 650 17% 648 439 68% 203 31% 4 1%
146 Paper 3903 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
146 Mail 3903 14 0% 14 8 57% 6 43% 0 0%
146 Early 3903 2081 53% 2073 1138 55% 914 44% 12 1%
146 Total 3903 2745 70% 2735 1585 58% 1123 41% 16 1%
147 Poll 1332 214 16% 213 141 66% 67 31% 1 0%
147 Paper 1332 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
147 Mail 1332 7 1% 7 6 86% 1 14% 0 0%
147 Early 1332 709 53% 708 385 54% 318 45% 3 0%
147 Total 1332 930 70% 928 532 57% 386 42% 4 0%
148 Poll 69 18 26% 18 14 78% 3 17% 1 6%
148 Paper 69 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
148 Mail 69 1 1% 1 1 100% 0 0% 0 0%
148 Early 69 34 49% 34 25 74% 9 26% 0 0%
148 Total 69 53 77% 53 40 75% 12 23% 1 2%
149 Poll 1830 409 22% 409 285 70% 118 29% 6 1%
149 Paper 1830 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
149 Mail 1830 10 1% 10 9 90% 1 10% 0 0%
149 Early 1830 873 48% 869 515 59% 350 40% 3 0%
149 Total 1830 1292 71% 1288 809 63% 469 36% 9 1%
150 Poll 330 44 13% 44 33 75% 11 25% 0 0%
150 Paper 330 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
150 Mail 330 2 1% 2 2 100% 0 0% 0 0%
150 Early 330 152 46% 149 107 72% 41 28% 1 1%
150 Total 330 198 60% 195 142 73% 52 27% 1 1%
151 Poll 917 157 17% 157 90 57% 64 41% 2 1%
151 Paper 917 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
151 Mail 917 6 1% 6 3 50% 3 50% 0 0%
151 Early 917 515 56% 512 248 48% 258 50% 3 1%
151 Total 917 678 74% 675 341 51% 325 48% 5 1%
152 Poll 76 7 9% 6 2 33% 4 67% 0 0%
152 Paper 76 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
152 Mail 76 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
152 Early 76 24 32% 24 7 29% 17 71% 0 0%
152 Total 76 31 41% 30 9 30% 21 70% 0 0%
153 Poll 1740 318 18% 314 211 67% 92 29% 9 3%
153 Paper 1740 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
153 Mail 1740 9 1% 9 8 89% 1 11% 0 0%
153 Early 1740 955 55% 953 552 58% 387 41% 6 1%
153 Total 1740 1282 74% 1276 771 60% 480 38% 15 1%
154 Poll 141 25 18% 25 4 16% 20 80% 1 4%
154 Paper 141 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
154 Mail 141 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
154 Early 141 57 40% 57 2 4% 55 96% 0 0%
154 Total 141 82 58% 82 6 7% 75 91% 1 1%
155 Poll 1604 395 25% 395 281 71% 106 27% 4 1%
155 Paper 1604 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
155 Mail 1604 12 1% 12 8 67% 4 33% 0 0%
155 Early 1604 787 49% 786 498 63% 283 36% 2 0%
155 Total 1604 1194 74% 1193 787 66% 393 33% 6 1%
156 Poll 3870 726 19% 721 450 62% 261 36% 9 1%
156 Paper 3870 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
156 Mail 3870 35 1% 35 31 89% 4 11% 0 0%
156 Early 3870 1893 49% 1889 1153 61% 709 38% 19 1%
156 Total 3870 2654 69% 2645 1634 62% 974 37% 28 1%
157 Poll 5579 950 17% 948 646 68% 291 31% 6 1%
157 Paper 5579 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
157 Mail 5579 25 0% 25 21 84% 4 16% 0 0%
157 Early 5579 3188 57% 3187 2001 63% 1162 36% 12 0%
157 Total 5579 4163 75% 4160 2668 64% 1457 35% 18 0%
158 Poll 1311 205 16% 204 115 56% 86 42% 2 1%
158 Paper 1311 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
158 Mail 1311 3 0% 3 1 33% 2 67% 0 0%
158 Early 1311 736 56% 733 389 53% 333 45% 9 1%
158 Total 1311 944 72% 940 505 54% 421 45% 11 1%
159 Poll 5299 770 15% 767 504 66% 245 32% 11 1%
159 Paper 5299 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
159 Mail 5299 21 0% 21 13 62% 8 38% 0 0%
159 Early 5299 2984 56% 2973 1687 57% 1253 42% 20 1%
159 Total 5299 3775 71% 3761 2204 59% 1506 40% 31 1%
160 Poll 14 2 14% 2 2 100% 0 0% 0 0%
160 Paper 14 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
160 Mail 14 2 14% 2 2 100% 0 0% 0 0%
160 Early 14 13 93% 13 10 77% 3 23% 0 0%
160 Total 14 17 121% 17 14 82% 3 18% 0 0%
161 Poll 7 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
161 Paper 7 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
161 Mail 7 0 0% 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
161 Early 7 7 100% 7 5 71% 2 29% 0 0%
161 Total 7 7 100% 7 5 71% 2 29% 0 0%
162 Poll 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
162 Paper 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
162 Mail 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 - 0 -
162 Early 0 11 - 11 7 64% 4 36% 0 0%
162 Total 0 11 - 11 7 64% 4 36% 0 0%

Poll 425994 75359 18% 75009 49203 66% 24443 33% 867 1%

Paper 425994 477 0% 462 234 51% 205 44% 4 1%

Mail 425994 11916 3% 11834 7968 67% 3707 31% 71 1%

Early 425994 210895 50% 210152 127492 61% 80692 38% 1226 1%

Total 425994 298647 70% 297457 184897 62% 109047 37% 2168 1%

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