Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Early Voting Already Underway In Some States

Voters in eleven states began early voting on Monday in an election cycle that's expected to set records this year. During the next few weeks, at least 34 states and the District of Columbia will allow early in-person voting for the November 4th general election. Early voting in Texas begins on October 20 at 7:00 AM runs through 7:00 PM October 31.

After a 2008 primary season marked by record-shattering voter turnout, election officials across the country are bracing for what might be a General Election season like no other. During the 2008 Democratic Primary more people voted in the Democratic Primary Ballot in Collin County than voted for John Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election. More than 20,000 people attended the Democratic Party's 2008 Precinct Conventions on March 4th all across Collin County and approximately 4,000 people attended the Democratic Party's 2008 County Convention in Collin County. These are all historic record turnouts for the Democratic Party in Collin County.

Many state and local election officials across the U.S. expect turnout for the 2008 election to exceed that of 2004, when national voter turnout hit 61 percent — which was the highest level since 1968, according to the Center for the Study of the American Electorate. Collin County voter turnout actually reached 67 percent of registered voters in the November 2004 presidential election. Arizona Secretary of State Jan Brewer says, “November could see the highest turnout of my lifetime, turnout could be up to as much as 80 percent.” Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner also says, "As many as 80 percent of Ohio's registered voters could turn out on Election Day."

Experts such as Paul Gronke of the Early Voting Information Center predict nearly a third of the national electorate will vote early this year, up from 15% in 2000 and 20% in 2004. In closely contested Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, over 40 percent of the voters are expected to cast ballots during the early voting period. Early voting has been historically popular in Collin County with 25% of registered voters voting early in the 2000 presidential election and almost 42% of registered voters voting early in the 2004 presidential election.

According to data posted on the Texas Secretary of State and Collin County Elections Office websites approximately 20,000 new voters registered to vote in Collin County between March 2008 and September 2, 2008 boosting the total number of registered voters to 403,465. Voter registration drives are scheduled to continue across the county until the October 6th registration cutoff date, so the number of voters registered in the county will most likely grow from the 403,465 number. The record 2008 primary turnout combined with the high rate of new voter registrations suggests that general election voter turnout in Collin County will meet and likely exceed voter turnout in the 2004 election.

Applying voter turnout percentages from the November 2004 election to the 2008 voter registration data yields an estimation of the possible 2008 voter turnout numbers.

Lets say that 405,500 people will ultimately register to vote for this election and that 42 percent of the registered voters will vote early and 69 percent of registered voters will ultimately turn out to vote in this election. This yields a total turnout of 279,450 voters with 170,100 people voting early between October 20 and October 31. That suggests that only 109,350 will wait to vote on Election Day November 4th.

Given the very high interest in this election, the numbers might be higher all around, so lets look at another possible turnout scenario. Lets say that 410,000 people will ultimately register to vote for this election and that 47 percent of the registered voters will vote early and 80 percent of registered voters will ultimately turn out to vote in this election. This yields a total turnout of 328,000 voters with 192,700 people voting early between October 20 and October 31. That suggests that 135,300 will wait to vote on Election Day November 4th.

Using either set of possible voter turnout numbers election workers will be very busy every day of Early Voting and on Election Day too. Please help out the election workers and be sure to take your Voter Registration Card with you when you go to vote this years.

Date Total
Registered
Voters
GOP
Presidential
Vote
Democratic
Presidential
Vote
Total
Votes
Cast
Early
Votes
Cast
Early Votes
% 0f All
Reg Voters
Turnout
% of Total
Reg Voters
Nov-00 300,426 73.1% 128,179 24.4% 42,884 177,673 75,244 25% 59%
Nov-04 369,412 71.2% 174,435 28.1% 68,935 246,617 150,001 42% 67%
Nov-06 381,821 n/a n/a n/a n/a 138,686 61,613 16% 36%
Mar-08 380,570 41% 51,556 59% 72,518 124,614 59,033 16% 33%
Sep-08 403,465 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Nov-08 405,000* - - - - 279,450* 170,100* 42%* 69%*
Nov-08 410,000* - - - - 328,000* 192,700* 47%* 80%*
* - Projected Estimation prepared by blog author - non-official
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/index.shtml
http://www.collincountytx.gov/elections/voter_registration/voter_count.pdf
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/archive.shtml

No comments:

Post a Comment